gas market update to sparebank1 markets and …...2019/06/17 · restricted 19 june 2018 nord...
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European gas production (mcm/d)
MIN-MAX 5 Year 5 Y Average 2018 2019
Restricted 19 June 2018
Infrastructure today and after 2020New capacity will reduce price spikes and add flexibility
11 | Document Title
Restricted 19 June 2018
Nord Stream 2 conclusions and implications
• Nord Stream 2 will most probably not be in operation as of 1 Jan 2020.
• We believe that transit arrangement (via Ukraine) will be negotiated by the end of 2019: most likely - short term- and tariff
entry-exit based
• In case of no transit arrangement: it could lead to supply interruptions
• Central and South East European countries will be affected: price increase, additional gas flow form NWE and LNG
• Price effect : PSV will be in premium vs NCG and NCG will be traded with premium vs TTF if Italy and AU start pulling
more gas from Western Europe.
• When NS2 in operation: German hubs will become a large transit and offtake hub, less volatile
• High competition from the East and lower prices in Germany
• Ukraine route might be required, but depends on European gas demand
12 | Document Title Sources: Naftogaz, Tgazprom and Euionor Analysis
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