gdpe0575icr rwanda power market outlook to 2030 ...gdpe0575icr / published aug 2012

GDPE0575ICR / Published AUG 2012 Rwanda Power Market Outlook to 2030 - Business Propensity Indicator

(BPI), Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form

Rwanda Power Market Outlook to 2030 - Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive

Landscape Reference Code: GDPE0575ICR Publication Date: August 2012

Thermal and Hydro have an Equal Share in the Country’s Power Mix

Thermal and hydropower sources were estimated to account for near XX% shares of the country’s total installed capacity in 2011. Of thermal power’s share, oil-fired plants contributed XX% and gas-fired plants contributed XX%. The government has plans to increase the generation capacity for both thermal and hydropower sources in the future. Generation from thermal sources, pertinently gas-fired plants, is expected to increase due to presence of abundant methane gas availability in Lake Kivu. For hydropower generation, the government has announced several projects such as the Rukaroara XX plant (XX MW), Nyabarongo XX Hydro (XX MW) and Ntaruka A (XX MW). These projects are likely to come online by 2017. It is expected that hydro and thermal sources will maintain near XX% shares of Rwanda’s installed capacity in 2020. In 2020, gas-fired plants are expected to have a XX% share, while oil-fired plants will have an estimated XX% share in the country’s power mix.

Continued Growth in Power Generation

Increases in power generation in Rwanda are expected to be robust in future. The government has been aggressively pursuing economic development and has been continually working to increase power generation to bring about this development. The total generation increased from XX GWh in 2000 to an estimated XX GWh in 2011, registering a CAGR of XX% from 2000–2011. The hydropower generation figures dipped significantly after the energy crisis in 2004, which caused a major decline in the water levels of the country. However, hydropower generation has started increasing after 2009. The country has been a net importer of electricity and is focusing on increasing power generation to be able to meet the increased demand. It is expected that the country will witness an increase in generation from XX GWh to XX GWh in 2030.

Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Total Generation (GWh) 2000-2011

2000 2005 2011To

tal G

ener

atio

n (G

Wh)

Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database

Thermal Power, the Way Forward

According to GlobalData estimates, thermal power is expected to contribute a XX% share of the total installed capacity by 2030. It is expected that gas-fired plants will contribute significantly to the total thermal installed capacity. The discovery of abundant methane gas reserves in Lake Kivu has allowed the government to consider that future capacity additions will be largely from gas-based sources. The potential methane gas reserves in Lake Kivu are estimated to be around XX billion cubic meters (bcm). The government estimates that the available gas reserves are sufficient to install XX MW of gas-fired capacity over a period of XX years. However, the government is also planning to reduce its dependence on costly oil imports for power generation. Several projects have been announced by the government, which are likely to be developed by the ministry itself or in association with private partners and neighboring countries. This is likely to provide a major boost to thermal power generation. Future capacity additions in hydropower are not expected beyond 2017 due to the lack of any government policy. Hydropower generation registered a decline due to the energy crisis in 2004, which resulted in a decline in water levels. The over-exploitation of existing hydropower resources and the poor maintenance of existing facilities were also responsible for the decline in generation figures. Therefore, hydro does not hold a promising future in meeting Rwanda’s future power needs.



1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 2

1.1 List of Tables............................................................................................................................. 4 1.2 List of Figures............................................................................................................................ 4

2 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ..................................................................................................... 5

3 Rwanda, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Methodology................................................. 6 3.1 Methodology for Evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator for Rwanda in Africa .................... 6

3.1.1 Supply Security ................................................................................................................ 6 3.1.2 Regulatory Scenario ......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.3 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.4 Macroeconomic Scenario.................................................................................................. 7 3.1.5 Competitive Scenario........................................................................................................ 9 3.1.6 Future Potential ................................................................................................................ 9

3.2 Methodology Adopted to Arrive at Final Rank ........................................................................... 10 4 Rwanda, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator ................................................................... 12

4.1 Supply Security ....................................................................................................................... 12 4.2 Regulatory Scenario................................................................................................................ 12 4.3 Infrastructure........................................................................................................................... 12 4.4 Degree of Competition............................................................................................................. 12 4.5 Macro Economic Factors ......................................................................................................... 13 4.6 Future Potential....................................................................................................................... 13 4.7 Rwanda, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking ............................................... 13

5 Rwanda Power Market Analysis, 2000–2030 .................................................................................. 14 5.1 Rwanda, Power Market, Installed Capacity, 2000–2030............................................................ 14

5.1.1 Installed Capacity: Breakup by Type of Power Plant, 2011............................................... 14 5.1.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity 2000- 2030 ....................................................................... 15 5.1.3 Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity, 2000–2030......................................................... 17 5.1.4 Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity, 2000–2030................................................... 19 5.1.5 Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity, 2000–2030 .................................................... 21

5.2 Rwanda, Power Market, Annual Power Generation, 2000–2030................................................ 22 5.2.1 Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2030............................................................... 24 5.2.2 Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2030 ................................................................... 26

5.3 Rwanda, Power Market, Import and Export Scenario ................................................................ 28 5.4 Rwanda, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, 2000–2030 ............................................ 29 5.5 Rwanda, Power Market, Power Consumption by sector, 2011................................................... 31

6 Rwanda, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview............................................................................. 32 6.1 Rwanda, Power Market, Active Power Projects ........................................................................ 32

6.1.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects..................................................................................... 32 6.1.2 Leading Hydropower Projects ......................................................................................... 32 6.1.3 Leading Renewable Power Projects ................................................................................ 32

6.2 Rwanda, Power Market, Upcoming Power Projects .................................................................. 33 6.2.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects..................................................................................... 33 6.2.2 Leading Upcoming Hydropower Projects ......................................................................... 34

6.3 Rwanda, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview......................................................... 34 6.4 Rwanda, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview............................................................ 34 6.5 Rwanda, Power Market, Grid Interconnection........................................................................... 35 6.6 Rwanda, Power Market, Electricity Trading............................................................................... 35

7 Rwanda, Power Market, Regulatory Structure................................................................................. 36 7.1 Rwanda, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview ........................................................... 36 7.2 Rwanda, Power Market, Electricity Law.................................................................................... 36 7.3 Rwanda, Power Market, Power Sector Reforms ....................................................................... 37 7.4 Rwanda, Renewable Energy Development............................................................................... 37

8 Rwanda, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Top Power Generating Company ..... 38 8.1 Rwanda, Power Market, Market Share of Major Power Generating Company............................ 38 8.2 Key Company in the Rwanda Power Market, Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority ................ 38

8.2.1 Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority, Company Overview............................................ 38 8.2.2 Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority, Business Description.......................................... 38 8.2.3 Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority, SWOT Analysis.................................................. 40

9 Appendix....................................................................................................................................... 45



9.1 Market Definitions.................................................................................................................... 45 9.1.1 Power............................................................................................................................. 45 9.1.2 Installed Capacity ........................................................................................................... 45 9.1.3 Active Installed Capacity ................................................................................................. 45 9.1.4 Electricity Generation...................................................................................................... 45 9.1.5 Electricity Consumption................................................................................................... 45 9.1.6 Thermal Power ............................................................................................................... 45 9.1.7 Hydropower.................................................................................................................... 45 9.1.8 Nuclear Power................................................................................................................ 45 9.1.9 Renewable Energy Resources ........................................................................................ 45

9.2 Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... 46 9.3 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................ 47 9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology....................................................................................................... 47

9.4.1 Coverage ....................................................................................................................... 47 9.4.2 Secondary research and analysis.................................................................................... 48 9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis....................................................................................... 48

9.5 Contact Us .............................................................................................................................. 48 9.6 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................... 49



1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Ease of Doing Business-Categories and Definitions............................................................... 8 Table 2: Country Risk-Categories and Sub-categories......................................................................... 9 Table 3: BPI Scoring Parameters...................................................................................................... 11 Table 4: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 .... 14 Table 5: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030............................ 16 Table 6: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Thermal Power Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030.... 18 Table 7: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030......... 20 Table 8: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030................................ 23 Table 9: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030................... 25 Table 10: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 ....................... 27 Table 11: Power Market, Rwanda, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), 2000-2009 ..................... 28 Table 12: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000–2030............................. 30 Table 13: Power Market, Rwanda, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, By Sector ,%, 2011 ............ 31 Table 14: Power Market, Rwanda, Leading Thermal Power Projects, 2011 .......................................... 32 Table 15: Power Market, Rwanda, Leading Hydropower Projects (MW), 2011 ..................................... 32 Table 16: Power Market, Rwanda, Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects, 2011.......................... 33 Table 17: Power Market, Rwanda, Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects, 2011 ..................... 34 Table 18: Power Market, Rwanda, Existing Grid Interconnection Projects, 2011................................... 35 Table 19: Power Market, Rwanda, Upcoming Grid Interconnection Projects, 2011–2020...................... 35 Table 20: Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority, SWOT Analysis...................................................... 40 Table 21: Abbreviations...................................................................................................................... 46

1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Weights Assigned to the Six Factors (%), 2000-2020 ........................................................... 10 Figure 2: Power Market, Rwanda, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking........................................... 13 Figure 3: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011*... 14 Figure 4: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030............................ 15 Figure 5: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Thermal Power Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030.... 17 Figure 6: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030......... 19 Figure 7: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030................................ 22 Figure 8: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030................... 24 Figure 9: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 ....................... 26 Figure 10: Power Market, Rwanda, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), 2000-2009 ..................... 28 Figure 11: Power Market, Rwanda, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000–2030............................. 29 Figure 12: Power Market, Rwanda, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, By Sector (%), 2011 ........... 31



2 Introduction Rwanda is an under-developed country with nearly XX% of its population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. The 1994 genocide resulted in a XX% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the previous year and had a significant impact on the country’s ability to attract private investment. However, the country made substantial progress since 2002 in regard to the key macro-economic parameters. GDP has been registering an average annual growth rate ranging from XX%-XX% since 2002 and inflation has also come down to single digit numbers, ranging from XX%-XX%. Strong growth in the agricultural sector is responsible for the overall growth of the economy.

The Rwandan government has taken initiatives to bring about economic development in the country. Privatization was first introduced by the government in 2007. Since then, the telecom and mining sectors have been privatized to a large extent. Other important measures include the imposition of a value added tax of XX%, which helped the government to raise substantial revenues. However, one serious constraint for private sector development is the high cost of electricity and its limited availability.

In December 2011, both Rwanda and the US ratified the 2008 US-Rwanda Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). The treaty is expected to reinforce the economic ties between the two countries. It will also help in attracting new investment in Rwanda, which is crucial for the country’s economic development. The country also intends to become a regional leader in information technology. In 2010, the first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Kigali was set up. Private sector investment is expected to flow in the SEZ, especially in area such as agribusiness, information and communications technologies, trade and logistics, mining, and construction.

In 2011, the services sector contributed an estimated share of XX% of the country’s GDP, followed by the agricultural sector (XX%) and the industrial sector (XX%). The country exports commodities such as coffee, tea, hides and tin ore. The major export partners include Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, China, Swaziland, the US and Pakistan.

The Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) is apex body responsible for overseeing the energy sector. The Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Agency (RURA) is the regulatory agency supervising the major infrastructural sectors of the country including energy, telecommunications, water, waste management and transport. EWSA (Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority – formerly Electrogaz) is the state utility responsible for the production, transmission and distribution of electricity in Rwanda. Both hydro and thermal have an equal share of XX% each in the country’s total installed capacity. Going forward, thermal capacity is expected to dominate the power mix by 2030 with a share of XX%. The government envisages increase in hydro production till 2017, beyond which no concrete plans for capacity additions are stated by the government.

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance The report begins with an executive summary capturing the key growth trends in the Rwanda power

market.

Chapter three covers the methodology for evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator.

Chapter four provides information on the Business Propensity Indicator for Rwanda.

Chapter five covers the cumulative capacity and power generation information, and segmentation by source of energy from 2000-2011, with forecasts to 2030. This is followed by the consumption scenario of the market from 2000-2011, with forecasts to 2030.

Chapter six provides information on the power infrastructure of the country, including the leading active and upcoming power plants by source of energy, existing and planned developments in transmission and distribution infrastructure and cross-country interconnections.

Chapter seven provides information on the regulatory structure and describes in brief the power regulatory structure and prominent policies influencing the future of the power market.

Chapter eight describes the competitive landscape of the country’s power market, with a complete description and SWOT analysis of the top companies

NOTE: All 2011 market numbers provided in the report are estimates.

GDPE0575ICR / Published AUG 2012 Page 12 Rwanda Power Market Outlook to 2030 - Business Propensity Indicator


4 Rwanda, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator

4.1 Supply Security Rwanda is heavily dependent on electricity imports and its import dependency stood at XX% in 2009. The total imports stood at XX GWh and total generation stood at XX GWh in 2009.

4.2 Regulatory Scenario The Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) is responsible for overseeing the energy sector. The Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Agency (RURA) is the regulatory body functioning in the major infrastructural sectors of the country, which include energy, telecommunications, water, waste management and transport.

4.3 Infrastructure The country has only achieved a XX% electrification rate as of 2010, which reflects that electricity access is not available to the majority of the population. The capacity replacement required is XX%. The total capacity requiring replacement is XX MW of the total installed capacity of XX MW in 2011.

4.4 Degree of Competition The electricity market is highly consolidated in Rwanda with EWSA, the government-owned utility, holding the entire installed capacity.



4.5 Macro Economic Factors Rwanda ranks XXth out of XX countries on ease of doing business. Within the ease of doing business parameters, the country ranks highly on starting a business, getting credit and paying taxes.

4.6 Future Potential By 2020, hydro is expected to retain its dominant share of XX% in the power mix. Gas-fired plants are expected to significantly increase from XX% in 2011 to XX% in 2020. Oil-fired plants are expected to witness a significant decline from XX% in 2011 to XX% in 2020 as the government wants to reduce its dependence on oil imports.

4.7 Rwanda, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Figure 2: Power Market, Rwanda, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0

Source: GlobalData, Internal analysis Refer to BPI methodology section for more details



5 Rwanda Power Market Analysis, 2000–2030

5.1 Rwanda, Power Market, Installed Capacity, 2000–2030 5.1.1 Installed Capacity: Breakup by Type of Power Plant, 2011 In 2011, hydropower plants accounted for the dominant share of XX% of the total installed capacity in Rwanda. Following which, oil-fired plants accounted for XX% and gas-fired plants contributed the remaining XX% of the total installed capacity. At present, the XX MW solar PV facility situated near Kigali is the only renewable plant operational in the country. (Note: we have not included the solar PV facility in our forecast because the plant capacity is extremely small).

Figure 3: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011*

Hydro

Oil-fired

Gas-fired

Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database (April 30, 2012). * Note: 2011 numbers are estimates

Table 4: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011

Type of Power Plant Percentage Share

Hydro

Oil

Gas

Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database (April 30, 2012) *2011 numbers are estimates



5.1.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity 2000- 2030 The cumulative installed capacity increased from XX MW in 2000 to XX MW in 2011, recording a CAGR of XX% from 2000 to 2011. Of the total installed capacity, hydropower sources contributed XX MW, followed by oil-fired plants and gas-fired plants with XX MW and XX MW respectively.

During the forecast period, cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% from XX MW in 2012 to XX MW in 2030. Thermal power is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% between 2012 and 2030 to contribute XX% of the total installed capacity, while hydropower is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the same period to contribute XX% by 2030. The Energy Sector Plan drafted by the government aims to increase the electricity installed capacity to XX MW by 2017. The government is also planning to set up renewable power plants from geothermal and peat sources as the country has good potential reserves. However, since no concrete plans or investments have been directed towards the development of these plants they have been excluded from our forecasts.

Figure 4: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Cum

ulat

ive

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database (April 30, 2012), MINIFRA *2011 numbers are estimates



Table 5: Power Market, Rwanda, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000–2030 Year Installed Capacity (MW)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database (April 30, 2012), MINIFRA *2011 numbers are estimates



9 Appendix

9.1 Market Definitions The geographical coverage of the report is Rwanda. The report covers market segments related to installed electricity capacity, generation, consumption, power infrastructure and power regulations. The report covers the whole of Rwanda for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of its power market.

9.1.1 Power The rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or megawatts (MW), it is also known as "real" or "active" power.

9.1.2 Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in Megawatts (MW) on a nameplate physically fixed on the generator.

9.1.3 Active Installed Capacity Active installed capacity refers to that component of electric power that actually performs work. It is given in Kilowatts (KW) or Megawatts (MW).

9.1.4 Electricity Generation Producing electric energy by transforming other forms of energy. Also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.5 Electricity Consumption Electricity consumption is a sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports, minus transmission and distribution losses and measured in Gigawatt-hours (GWh).

9.1.6 Thermal Power A plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.

9.1.7 Hydropower A plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water.

9.1.8 Nuclear Power The electricity generated by the use of the thermal energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.

9.1.9 Renewable Energy Resources Naturally replenishing energy resources limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. For example, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind can all be termed as renewable resources.

.



9.2 Abbreviations Table 21: Abbreviations African Development Bank ADB

Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa BADEA

Belgian Development Agency BTC

Bilateral Investment Treaty BIT

billion cubic metres bcm

Compound Annual Growth Rate CAGR

Cooperative Technique Belge CTB

Democratic Republic of Congo DRC

Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy EDPRS

Electricity Access Scale-up Roll-out Program EARP

Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority EWSA

Feed-in-Tariffs FITs

Gross Domestic Product GDP

Herfindahl–Hirschman Index HHI

Information and Communications Technology ICT

International Energy Agency IEA

Israel Africa Energy Limited IAEL

Japanese International Cooperation Agency JICA

Kibuye Power KP

Kilovolt kV

Low Voltage LV

Micro-hydropower MHP

Ministry of Infrastructure MININFRA

OPEC Fund for International Development OFID

Photovoltaic PV

Rwanda Electricity Corporation RECO

Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Agency RURA

Rwanda Water and Sanitation Corporation RWASCO

Sector Wide Approach SWA

Société Nationale d'Electricité SNEL

Societe Tunisienne de l’electricite et du gaz STEG International

Special Economic Zone SEZ

Time of Use TOU

Transmission and Distribution T&D

Uganda Electricity Distribution Company Limited UEDCL

Souce: GlobalData



9.3 Bibliography EWSA, (2008): Electricity Access Rollout Program (EARP).. Available from

http://www.ewsa.rw/Docs/Tors%20contract%20manager.pdf [Accessed on May 1, 2012]

EWSA, (2010): EWSA Our History., Available from http://ewsa.rw/overview.html [Accessed on May 1, 2012]

EWSA, 2010: Energy information System – Transmission and Distribution Projects, Available from http://196.44.252.222/Energy/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=210[Accessed on May 1, 2012]

MININFRA, 2011 a: National Energy Policy and Strategy. Available from, http://www.ewsa.rw/Docs/ENERGY%20POLICY%20and%20STRATEGY.pdf [Accessed on May 2, 2012]

MININFRA, 2011 b: National Energy Policy and Strategy. Available from, http://www.ewsa.rw/Docs/ENERGY%20POLICY%20and%20STRATEGY.pdf [Accessed on May 2, 2012]

Rwanda government, 2011 via Reuters: Rwanda to spend $935 mln on geothermal power., Available from http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE72L0CX20110322 [Accessed on May 2, 2012]

SNC, Lavalin and Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2011: Regional Power System Master Plan and Grid Code Study, Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and East African Community (EAC). Available from http://www.eappool.org/eng/pub/masterplan/Final%20Master%20Plan%20Report%20Vol%20I.pdf [Accessed on May2, 2012]

Uwamahoro Yussuf, Commissioner of Energy-Rwanda at MININFRA (2008): Rwanda Electricity Access Scale Up Program and Swap Development. Available from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTAFRREGTOPENERGY/Resources/717305-1264695610003/6743444-1268073536147/7.3.Rwanda_sector-wide_approach.pdf [Accessed on May 1, 2012]

World Bank, 2009: Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAP) Development Project. Available from http://web.worldbank.org/external/projects/main?pagePK=64312881&piPK=64302848&theSitePK=40941&Projectid=P111567 [Accessed on May 1, 2012]

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced statistical expertise.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports.

9.4.1 Coverage This report gives detailed information on the country’s power market. It examines the country’s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to 2030. The report provides insights on the market’s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects. The report also provides Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), which benchmarks the country’s power sector against other countries in the region by analyzing the power sector of the country on six broad parameters – supply security, regulatory scenario, infrastructure, macroeconomics, competition and future potential. Each parameter has a weight assigned, and a weighted average score is calculated to obtain the country’s ranking in the region.



9.4.2 Secondary research and analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to:

Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations

Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature

Globaldata’s proprietary databases like the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database.

Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the country’s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following:

The country’s macroeconomic scenario

Government regulations, policies and targets

Government and private sector investments

Contract and deal announcements

Utility expansion plans

The sector’s historic track record

Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations.

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand information on industry trends.

The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials, and industry spokespeople.



9.6 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission.

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