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The Future: Frankenbooks, SocialCollaboration and Learning on Steroids
Stephen Abram, MLSEmerging Technology Forum @ Geelong
May 17, 2011
These slides are available at Stephen’s Lighthouse blog
EconomicChange
and Challenges
We Only Get So Many Once-in-a-Lifetime
Chances To Do Great Things
Welcome
Questions for Today:
1. Is this the end of libraries as we know them?2. Whither learning, community, support?3. What is actually changing?4. Do people still value the book? 5. Where is all this change taking us?6. What is the role for librarians and all types of
libraries in our info-future?
What Colour is the Sky?
So, what exactly is changing?
BooksMediaMobilityCollectionsLibraries
In a word:Everything connected to your world!
What has changed?
Libraries at the heart of the campus Students are focused at the lesson and event
(essay, test, exam) level Libraries at the heart of the community is no
longer just physical Libraries as whole school partners Physical access and basic reading evolves to
intellectual access with new competencies
Skip to the End: Why listen to me?
School libraries raise standardized test scores 15-25%!
School library / Public library partnerships increase scores 5% plus!
Libraries and information content and technology leadership are critical to Higher Ed
Communities with libraries as an investment receive very high ROI – average 650%!
There are more libraries than McDonalds & Starbucks combined with better distribution and staffing models for government services
Grocery Stores
Grocery Stores
Grocery Stores
Cookbooks, Chefs . . .
Cookbooks, Chefs . . .
Meals
Chefs, counsellors, teachers, magicians
Librarians play a vital role in building the critical connections between
information , knowledge and learning.
The Elephant in the Room
Very Big Secret
Change can happen very fast
Sensemaking
5 Things have Changed . . A LOT!
1. Cardholders, Users, Members, Patrons, Clients, Customers, Learners, Students, Scholars, Researchers, Teachers, Professors
2. Books & Media & Collections3. Mobility4. Learning & Research5. Government
The History of Unintended
Consequences & Unpredictability
“Strategy is a Choice . . .
To be a victim and feel these changes are fated and blamestormOR
Create the future we need and take collective responsibility for the conversation and development of the future.”
Find Reasons not Excuses.
As technology advances
Emboldened Librarians hold the key
GOOG
The nasty facts about Google &
Bing and consumer search:
SEOContent Farms
Advertiser drivenGeotagging
News Flash “The Internet and technology have now
progressed to their infancy”
My son: Zachary
News Flash
News Flash
Tech Shift Happens
Culture
People
People are Changing
Demographic– Millennials, Boomers, Seniors Overall IQ Increases Increased educational attainment & engagement eBooks outsell hard cover books & paperbacks Reading is UP, way up. Some libraries are crediting most cardholder
growth to e-book accessibility Personal device proliferation Some sectors are very tech-dominated (oil,
farming, cattle, trucking, mining, forestry, …)
NextGen Differences
Increase in IQ - 15-20 Points Brain & Developmental Changes Eye Movement Changes Massive Behavioural Changes Major Decline in Crime Rates – down 65% But still a 70% behavior overlap with
Boomers (see my book chapter)
People Have Changed
Twitter & Facebook are dominated by the middle-aged
Gaming too. . . Mothers in their 30’s Social networks fastest growing populations
are seniors and will be more international and less urban and English.
eBook reader usage is largely middle-aged. Mobile data usage is growing beyond youth
very quickly, workplace use is huge
What We Never Really Knew Before (US/Canada)
27% of our users are under 18. 59% are female.
29% are college students. 5% are professors and 6% are teachers.
On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the very first time!
Only 29% found the databases via the library website. 59% found what they were looking for on their first search.
72% trusted our content more than Google. But, 81% still use Google.
We often believe a lot
that isn’t true.
2010 Eduventures Research on Investments
58% of instructors believe that technology in courses positively impacts student engagement. 71% of instructors that rated student engagement levels as “high” as a result of using technology in
courses. 71% of students who are employed full-time and 77% of students who are employed part-time
prefer more technology-based tools in the classroom. 79% of instructors and 86 percent of students have seen the average level of engagement improve
over the last year as they have increased their use of digital educational tools. 87% of students believe online libraries and databases have had the most significant impact on
their overall learning. 62% identify blogs, wikis, and other online authoring tools while 59% identify YouTube and
recorded lectures. E-books and e-textbooks impact overall learning among 50% of students surveyed, while 42% of
students identify online portals. 44% of instructors believe that online libraries and databases will have the greatest impact on
student engagement. 32% of instructors identify e-textbooks and 30% identify interactive homework solutions as having
the potential to improve engagement and learning outcomes. (e-readers was 11%) 49% of students believe that online libraries and databases will have the greatest impact on
student engagement. Students are more optimistic about the potential for technology.
Have Students Changed
?
YES (duh!)
So how must library and educator strategies change?
Discovery & Ideas
Has the future changed?Has our future changed?
COWS, etc.
The Future Discovered
• Stem Cells• fMRI and The Brain• Cloning• Trucking and GPS• Wind and other energy• Nanotechnology• Robotics• Massive Book Digitization• Music• Translation• Streaming Media• Seed Bank
A 1965 iPhone
Can libraries keep up with change?
Can you recall buying a 45? Can you recall dials on TVs? Can you recall dialling?
Formats have died before.
Books
We have a shallow understanding of the Codex – the book format(s)
Transition from scrolls – illumination – codex – and beyond
How would you enhance the book without the compromises of the 1500’s?
What does all this mean?
The Article level universe The Chapter and Paragraph Universe Integrated with Visuals – graphics and charts Integrated with ‘video’ Integrated with Sound and Speech Integrated with social web Integrated with interaction and not just
interactivity How would you enhance a book?
Borders Kobo, B&N Nook, Amazon Kindle, Apple iPad, Sony, etc. . . .
Mobility
Broadband
You must clearly understand the latest US FCC Whitespace Broadband Decision – THIS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL and going global
Net neutrality, kill switches . . . Local wired, mobile access ‘everywhere’ to the
home and workplace on a personal basis Geo-awareness: GIS, GPS, GEO-IP, etc. Wireless as a business strategy (Starbucks) Mobile dominates the largest generation
What changes with personal devices?
Device Issues
The Physical Act of Reading
The new bibliography and
collection development
KNOWLEDGE PORTALS
KNOWLEDGE,LEARNING,
INFORMATION &RESEARCHCOMMONS
Emerging Tech that Drives Users to the Library
Content Farms, Mills (Demand Media, AOL, etc.)
Encyclopedia.com HighBeam & Questia WorldCat AccessMyLibrary iPhone App for
public, school and higher ed – iPhone, iPad, iTouch and Droid!
Geo-IP features and measures Watch for more . . .
Trans-Literacy: Move beyond reading & PC skills Reading literacy Numeracy Critical literacy Social literacy Computer literacy Web literacy Content literacy Written literacy
News literacy Technology literacy Information literacy Media literacy Adaptive literacy Research literacy Academic literacy Reputation, Etc.
Can we frame the e-book issue so that it can be addressed rationally?
MindMap: What is a book?
1. Reading2. Learning3. Pedagogy4. Research5. Exploration6. Reference7. Engagement8. Enjoyment9. Evaluation
Reading
MindMap: What is a book?
1. Reading2. Learning3. Pedagogy4. Research5. Exploration6. Reference7. Engagement8. Enjoyment9. Evaluation
Books
Fiction
Non-Fiction
Encyclopedia
Reference
Directories
Dictionaries
Textbooks
E-Learning
Steal This Idea
What are thegood and badthings about
e-books?
Library Goals
Be the BeeOr Be the Hive.
Care.
Strategic Thinking for Libraries
1. Choosing a Future2. Setting Phased Priorities3. Making Choices4. Taking Action5. Doing the Next Step6. Adjusting Tactics with Experience7. Seeking Feedback and Adjusting8. Measuring Progress
Choosing Top Priorities Suppose that in three years: Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural!
And especially academic courses. Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-
books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print All learning will be blended and continuous DVD is circulation is dead and most other physical
formats in decline. Majority of questions will be virtual Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile) Every user will be socially networked, connected and
engaged
What do we need to know?
What are we going
to do next?
StrategicAnalytics
What do we need to know?
How do library databases and virtual services compare with other web experiences?
Who are our core virtual users? Are there gaps? Does learning happen? How about discovery? What are user expectations for true satisfaction? How does library search compare to consumer
search like Google and retail or government? How do people find and connect with library virtual
services? Are end users being successful in their POV? Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?
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Top-Level BenchmarksGale-Cengage Browse Survey
August 01, 2010 - August 31, 2010
StrategicAnalytics
Don’t Rest on Your Laurels.
Reintermediation
Stand Out!
Trust Yourself to Make Difference and Have an Impact
You have the tools.
Stop Making it so Hard!
Save the User!
Serve Everyone!
Unlocking the Library Value Conversation
What Would You Attempt If You Knew You Would Not
Fail?
What Are Libraries Really For?
• Community• Learning• Discovery• Progress• Research (Applied and Theoretical)• Cultural & Knowledge Custody • Economic Impact
20th Century Strategies
Inventory and CollectionsBuildingsSearchReading is FundamentalPatronsOutreachCirculationPrivacy
21st Century Strategies
Content AccessBricks and Clicks and TricksCommunities of Knowledge and
PracticeResearch ImpactPartnerships Information Literacy ProgramsSocial links and Student Life
Bricks, Clicks and Tricks Gambling
Social Glue and Libraries
A Third Path
Observe Your Users
Context is King,Contact trumps Culture Content is a Foundation
Community
Conversations
Relationships
Community Networks
The Social Life of Information
Life
Comfort
Progress
The power of libraries
Starlings on Otmoor
Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets
Cengage Learning (Gale)Cel: 416-669-4855
[email protected]’s Lighthouse Blog
http://stephenslighthouse.comFacebook: Stephen Abram
LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen AbramTwitter: sabram
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