Cuba Embargo 1NC/2NCCHINA CPText: The peoples republic of china should economically engage Cuba by increasing agricultural trade.

China engagement solves the aff and Latin American countries prefer it to US engagementWorldCrunch 5/6 (2013, Wang xiaoxia, staffwriter, economic observer, In Americas Backyard: Chinas Rising Influence in Latin America http://worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/)

In their book America's Blind Spot: Chavez, Oil, and U.S. Security, Andres Cala and Michael J. Economides avoid the usual patter of linking South Americas "China factor" with some sordid conspiracy theory. Instead, they investigate Latin Americas subtle choice between China and the United States, attributing Washington's weakened influence in the region to its failure in foreign policy and economic development -- while China rises on the back of globalization. Since 1823, when America put forward the Monroe Doctrine and declared its sphere of influence to Europeans, it has maintained the unique position of the United States in the Americas. Military intervention has always served as the most important tool for the United States. Especially after the start of the Cold War, in order to curb Communism from taking root in Latin America, the U.S. used military means largely without restraint. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States faced new external challenges such as the threat of global terrorism. Latin Americas strategic significance has quickly slipped to a secondary and more local ranking. The United States has shifted its focus in Latin America to specific issues such as illegal immigration and drug smuggling. The realism that ran through Americas foreign policy during the Cold War has gradually transformed towards idealism, which in consequence weakens its influence in Latin America. Under the doctrine of realism, America broke any illusion of moral constraint in its foreign interventions; the protection of American interests was its pragmatic principle. Washington didnt care that some Latin American countries were dictatorial or that they violated human rights, as long as their leaders firmly stood on the side of the anti-Communist camp. Since adopting idealism, America considers that whatever is best for itself is also best for the rest of the world. Its foreign policy is aimed at maintaining democracy, human rights and a free market economy around the world. America began to demand that its former dictatorial allies quit their attachment to power and carry out a transition to democracy. Since 1989, the U.S. has pushed Latin American countries -- many facing a severe debt crisis -- to accept the Washington Consensus oriented by market economy theory. The ultimate goal set by this theory may not be a problem. However, it did not pull Latin America out of the quagmire of its lost decade of the 1980s. In the 1990s, Latin America suffered another severe economic downturn, which exacerbated the division between the rich and the poor -- leading to serious social problems. The idealism exported by the United States intensified the existing contradictions in Latin American society, and eventually led to the downfall of most of the brutal totalitarian military governments. China as a new favorite Initially, Chinas activities in Latin America were limited to the diplomatic level. By providing funds and assisting in infrastructure constructions, China managed to interrupt diplomatic ties between poor Latin countries and Taiwan. Since then, with China's economic boom, the supply of energy and resources has gradually become a problem that plagues China -- and its exchanges with Latin America thus are endowed with real substantive purpose. Among the numerous needs of China, the demand for oil has always been the most powerful driving force. In the past 30 years, China has consumed one-third of the world's new oil production and become the world's second-largest oil importer. More than half of China's oil demand depends on imports, which increases the instability of its energy security. Diversification is inevitable. In this context, Latin America and its huge reserves and production capacity naturally became a destination for China. China must better protect its energy supply, and can't just play the simple role of consumer. It must also help solidify the important links of the petroleum industry supply chain. Indeed, the China National Petroleum Corporation frequently appears in Latin American countries, and Chinas investment and trade in the Latin American countries are also focused on its energy sector. In the opinion of many European and American scholars, China's current practice isnt much different from that of Western colonizers of the last century. These scholars believe that China doesnt care about local human rights or the state of democracy when dealing with countries. All China is interested in is establishing long-term, stable economic relations. This realistic path is exactly opposite to that of America's newfound idealism. Thus China has become a close collaborator of certain Latin American countries, such as Venezuela, that are in sharp conflict with the United States. The global financial crisis of 2008 was a chance for China to become an increasingly important player in Latin American. As Europe and the United States were caught in a financial quagmire, China, with nearly $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves as backing, embarked on "funds-for-assets" transactions with Latin American countries. So what does China want exactly in entering Latin American? Is it to obtain a stable supply of energy and resources, and thus inadvertently acquire political influence? Or the other way round? Presumably most U.S. foreign policy-makers are well aware of the answer. China's involvement in the Latin American continent doesnt constitute a threat to the United States, but brings benefits. It is precisely because China has reached "loans-for-oil" swap agreements with Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador and other countries that it brings much-needed funds to these oil-producing countries in South America. Not only have these funds been used in the field of oil production, but they have also safeguarded the energy supply of the United States, as well as stabilized these countries' livelihood -- and to a certain extent reduced the impact of illegal immigration and the drug trade on the U.S.

The net benefit is the China Disadvantage.China DAChina is carefully seeking cooperation with US on Latin American engagement---plans unilateral approach disrupts the processBBC News 5-31 Chinese president's upcoming US visit may help dispel misunderstanding Xinhua, BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific Political, L/N, Accessed Date: 6-12-13 y2k

Beijing, 31 May - Xi Jinping's just-started journey to the west hemisphere will be his first tour to Latin America as Chinese president. Meanwhile, his June 7-8 talks with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama at Sunnylands estate, California, will also be the first summit between the world's two largest economies after both countries underwent leadership transition. As many global observers have noticed, Xi's visit is unprecedented in its itinerary and other arrangements for a Chinese head of state, which evince a balanced approach toward both developing and developed nations, as well as an innovative diplomacy style of the new Chinese leadership. Instead of competing with other world powers for the so-called "spheres of influence," Beijing is seeking pragmatic cooperation for mutual benefit when building rapport with Latin American countries, which is conducive to the region's social stability and economic growth. In the Caribbean and Latin America, Xi will show a world vision which prefers common prosperity instead of old-fashioned alliance. China's relations with Latin America have already entered a fast-growing track with a 100-fold increase in bilateral trade since 1990, as China has already become the region's second-largest trade partner. In China's global economic map, the region is gaining prominence as it emerged as a major destination for China's growing overseas investment. Scheduled next week in California, the Xi-Obama meeting will be innovative in several ways. It is rare in history that a Chinese president holds talks with his U.S. counterpart less than three months after assuming office. The timing and the form of the summit will also be unprecedented throughout the records of China-U.S. ties. Such special arrangements display the growing maturity of the ties between the world's largest developing nation and largest developed nation. Of course, the two leaders will discuss urgent issues such as recent challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, but they are also expected to take time to talk about laying the groundwork for forging a new type of inter-power relations. From the Chinese perspective, a new type of relationship between the two nations calls for a new strategic concept for them to see each other as opportunities rather than threats, and materialize the opportunities via further cooperation. As the world's top two economies, China and the United States are the two crucial variables in a fast-changing global landscape, both having huge responsibilities to the peace and prosperity of the human race. The two sides need to take a long-term and full-range view of their relationship and its possible impact. It cannot be denied that the two countries have certain doubts over each other's strategic intentions, with Washington fearing its global status overtaken while Beijing always wondering about the true purpose of Obama's so-called "Asia Pivot" and "rebalancing." To reduce suspicion and build trust, it is vital to keep the channels of communication always open, especially at the top level. The informal meeting between Xi and Obama will provide a golden chance for them to know each other better in person and help dispel misunderstanding between the two sides.China is expanding is Cuba through economic tiesSainsbury 10 Michael Sainsbury is The Australian Staff, Beijing places Cuba higher on agenda, August 3, 2010, L/N, Accessed Date: 6-13-13 y2k

IT has been a sometimes rocky friendship that has lasted 50 years. When Fidel Castro seized power in 1959, his communist comrades in the People's Republic of China were among the first in the world to recognise his government, the following year. Now as the 50th anniversary of those ties approaches on September 28, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi has made his first trip to the island and visited the ailing former president, whose brother Raul runs the country. For many years, the two nations were estranged as Cuba took sides with the Soviet Union during the Cold War and as China and the USSR grew further apart. But since the fall of communism in eastern Europe in 1989, there has been rapid rapprochement between two of the remaining handful of communist countries. In recent years the two countries have gained momentum in the development of their relations and the two peoples show increasing readiness for more exchange and co-operation, Mr Yang told China's Xinhua news agency. Trade has boomed in recent years and China is now Cuba's second-largest trading partner after Venezuela. Trade stood at $US1.5 billion last year, double the volume in 2007. Still, the number contracted by 31.5 per cent last year -- in line with an overall Cuban foreign trade slump of 44 per cent -- as the country reeled from the economic crisis, devastating hurricanes and a sharp drop in its main commodity export, nickel. Fidel Castro has visited China three times and Raul Castro also visited before being installed as Cuba's leader. China's President Hu Jintao has visited Cuba twice -- in 2004 and 2008 -- and there are ministerial-level visits, at least, almost every year. China has showered Cuba with loans as part of its strategy to draw Latin America into its sphere of influence.

Cooperation is key---plan makes power competition in Latin America inevitable---collapses US-China relationsHonbgo 13 Sun Hungbo is an associate research fellow at the Institute of Latin American Studies @ Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Latin America arena for global powers, 6-3-13, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/786399.shtml#.Ua6h6UCTiSo, Accessed Date: 6-4-13, y2k

New Chinese President Xi Jinping chose Latin America as part of the destinations for his second state visit, a sign that the new leadership will concentrate more on Latin America's role and influence in the transforming global pattern. There are likely to be more major steps forward to tune up Sino-Latin American cooperation. China's investment in Latin America will be enlarged dramatically, along with a more specific and practical policy aiming to actively balance the different expectations of the interests of both sides. Obviously, China has become an important strategic partner with Latin America in terms of economic exchanges and foreign affairs. Compared with other regions such as the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Latin America is not pivotal in the change of the international pattern. Nevertheless, Latin America is becoming more fully engaged with international affairs. More importantly, Latin America is no longer constrained to a US-dominated Western hemisphere, but is developing relationships with emerging economies from the rest of the world. However, challenges still remain in those countries' China policies in terms of policy coordination and implementation. It requires both China and Latin America to make efforts to guide and design the direction of the bilateral relationship. It is also unavoidable that Latin America has become an arena for another round of power struggles. The US is trying to regain its influence in Latin America, while Russia, India and Japan, no matter whether out of consideration of Latin America's resources and market or the need to readjust their foreign policy, are also looking to take a share. Both traditional powers and emerging economies are looking for leverage in the region. Every major power is speculating on the changes inside Latin America. The dominant US position in this region has started to decline. Brazil is a rising power, but it is uncertain whether it can establish leadership in this region. Meanwhile, left-wing governments in Latin America are being challenged over the sustainability of their policies. And most Latin American countries are readjusting their foreign policies for a diverse system of foreign relations. Major powers are reevaluating their interests and readjusting their policies in this region to compete for influence. But whether they can live up to their own expectations depends on their national strength and future growth, and more importantly, whether they can balance their interests with Latin America's. Both China and the US have denied any intention of rivalry in Latin America, but the thriving relationship between China and Latin America has already impacted the traditional US influence over this region. Latin America has become an unavoidable topic if China and the US want to establish a new pattern of relationship. Setting up mechanisms to enhance communication, negotiation and mutual trust between both countries over this region should be a top priority. More challenges than opportunities will prevail in the future relationship between the US and Latin America. The challenges are mostly left over by history, such as immigration, drug dealing and US policies toward Cuba and Venezuela. Besides, its domestic policy has blocked the development of its Latin America policy. There might be a strong resistance if the US wants to improve its relationship with Latin America. For China, it will embrace more opportunities than challenges in this area. Although frictions have taken place in Sino-Latin American economic relationship, they are auspicious signals that the relationship between China and Latin America is in a booming development. These problems, produced by prosperity, will also be addressed amid such development. Both China and the US are seeking ways to foster a constructive mechanism, so that trilateral cooperation among China, the US, and Latin America will be achieved. Nonetheless, the trust deficit is the major obstruction that blocks both countries to deepen this cooperation. And China also needs to learn how to better respect Latin America's interests. More importantly, all three parties, including China, the US and Latin America, have to find out feasible areas of cooperation.

US-China cooperation solves extinctionGarrett 10 Dr. Banning Garrett is the Director of the Asia Program at the Atlantic Council. This essay was previously published at The Globalist, U.S.-China Relations: Gone Fishin December 02, 2010, http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/us-china-relations-gone-fishin%E2%80%99, Accessed Date: 6-12-13 y2k

Voicing our concerns about our policy differences is essential as we continue to struggle with China on a wide range of bilateral and international issues. But we also must try to keep the larger strategic picture in the forefront and try to land the elusive big one a more cooperative U.S.-China relationship to deal with the great strategic challenges of the 21st century. While China and the United States will always be reluctant partners at best, leaders of both countries have acknowledged that we are in the same boat when it comes to critical 21st century challenges. We are compelled to pull together to maintain a growing and stable global economy, mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects, ensure energy security and transition to a global, low-carbon economy, move to more sustainable economic models as resource scarcities loom as billions of people seek to join the global middle class and combat terrorism, proliferation, piracy, international crime, pandemics, failing states and a host of other non-traditional threats. This summer's unprecedented heat and forest fires in Russia and the massive, destructive floods in Pakistan may be the most recent warning signs that global warming is already altering our planets climate, causing extreme weather and other first-order effects that will have cascading impacts on virtually all countries. The implications for the global economy, societies and governments and the security of nations and peoples are potentially destabilizing and even catastrophic. The United States and China the two largest economic powers will not be immune from the impact of climate change. Nor, as the biggest energy consumers and producers of greenhouse gases, will they escape blame from the rest of the world if they fail to act and to cooperate. In the United States, there is growing anxiety about the pace of shifting power and a range of Chinese behaviors that are perceived as Beijing seeking to challenge a wide range of U.S. interests. The Chinese leadership, for its part, and especially elements of the Peoples Liberation Army, is flush with a sense of their countrys rapidly rising power, which has been turbo-boosted in the last two years by its superior performance in the global financial crisis. Beijing seems to be emphasizing narrow national interests and making a new push to gain recognition for an expanding list of core interests which now apparently includes Chinas territorial claims in the South China Sea. The Chinese seem reluctant to place a priority on their core interests in ensuring their prosperity and security by cooperating with other nations, especially the United States, on long-term global challenges and threats. We should ask what the prospects are for human civilization in this century as well as for American and Chinese interests if the United States and China do not cooperate on global challenges and even more ominously, if they have a highly competitive and antagonistic relationship, much less engage in actual military conflict. We may not have much time to fish in the depleting stream of potential cooperation. The United States and China need to change course soon. The two giants now seem caught in an eddy of deepening suspicion of each others intentions despite the stated conviction of the leaders of both countries that they need to work together.

IRAN DADiplomacy can solve the Iran nuclear issue- new leader provesTorbati and Hemming- 13Yeganeh, Jon, ( Journalist for Reuters), Iran, U.S. waiting for other side to make nuclear compromise, August 7. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/07/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSBRE9760SW20130807. Google. 8/7/13. Euro.The presidency of moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani has opened a window of opportunity in Iran's delicate nuclear diplomacy with the West but Tehran-watchers say that window could close as each side waits for the other to make the first move. Cautious optimism about talks between Iran and six world powers due to restart in September is a stark contrast to the gloom over on-off negotiations under eight years of previous President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In that time, ever more stringent U.N., U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's energy, shipping and banking sectors have helped weaken its currency, contributed to a steep rise in inflation and nearly halved oil exports since 2011. Meanwhile the Islamic Republic has continued to enrich uranium, edging towards Israel's "red line" after which it says it will launch military strikes on Iranian facilities. The leadership of Rouhani, who defeated more conservative rivals in a June 14 election with just over 50 percent of the vote, appears to offer the prospect of an alternative to the worst case scenario. "We are prepared, seriously and without wasting time, to enter negotiations which are serious and substantive with the other side," Rouhani said at his first news conference as president on Tuesday, and in answer to a question did not rule out direct talks with the United States. The United States, which has said it would be a "willing partner" if Iran were serious about resolving the problem peacefully, was careful in its response.American trade in Latin America is used to push back against Iran, disrupts negotiations.CSIS- 13(Center for Strategic and International Studies, Brandon Fite and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte). US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Periphery States, July 9. http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-latin-america-africa-and-periphery-states. Google. 8/8/13. Euro.Strategic competition between the US and Iran in Latin America and Africa remains a critical aspect of any national security discussion. Recent developments in Latin America, Africa, Iran, and elsewhere necessitate a reevaluation of Irans presence in the region, as well as the threat it poses to the United States. The Burke Chair in Strategys recently released report, US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Periphery States provides new analysis on these issues. The death of Hugo Chavez and the end of Mahmoud Ahmadinejads presidency remove two of the most important figures in the Iranian-Latin America relationship. Additionally, despite Iranian vows of increased aid to both Africa and Latin America, funds have been either nonexistent or far smaller than promised. Analysis of such developments and their implications have been published in an updated report entitled US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Peripheral States, which is now available on the CSIS website at: http://csis.org/files/publication/130709_Iran_Latinamerica_otherstates.pdf As newly imposed American and European sanctions begin to take hold on the Iranian economy, the government in Tehran has sought to mitigate their punitive effect and side-step Western pressure by seeking partnerships with states on the geographic and strategic periphery of the US-Iran competition. Iran has worked to build relationships with other politically isolated governments with which it has somewhat of an ideological connection, like Venezuela and Zimbabwe. However, Tehran also forged closer ties with states that are drawn to Iran for economic, rather than political, purposes. Although states such as Argentina and Brazil may not politically align themselves with the Islamic Republic, both have strong trade partnerships with Iran. Despite these efforts, however, Irans embrace of these periphery states is limited and has been hindered by the overwhelming degree of US economic integration in both regions. This report shows that Iran pursued cooperation with states on the geographic and strategic periphery. In addition to general trade and diplomatic ties, these peripheral partners also have served as alternative markets for Iranian oil, provided diplomatic cover for Irans nuclear efforts, and aided Irans acquisition of goods proscribed by international sanctions. Tehrans strategy pragmatically subordinated concerns for ideological and religious homogeneity to the goal of creating a coalition of non- or anti-Western states capable of influencing its competition with the United States. The states involved have been drawn to Iran by both promises of economic helpparticularly in the energy sectorand by Iranian appeals to commonly oppose the Western international system. The Islamic Republic has also characterized its present isolation by the US and Europe as a continuation of Western imperialism, and drew on its credentials as a member of the Non-Aligned Movement to elicit support from the disparate states throughout Africa and the Americas that have preexisting grievances with the Western order and its leading states. According to Iranian leaders, the IRIs competition with the US and its allies is not a just a contest between states, but a clash of worldviews. The US represents an exploitative status quo, and Iran offers the promise of an alternative order geared toward promoting the sovereignty and interests of developing nations. Though many of the countries Iran has sought cooperation with are militarily and economically weak, Tehran cast a wide net in trying to build an array of partners to counterbalance what it sees as Western dominance of the global order. Iran has sought to be the hub of a non-Western bloc, and worked to frustrate American influence over Iran and throughout the developing world. US ability to push back against Irans attempts to widen its network of such countries is strongest in countries that benefit from US aid, trade, or that lack a significant basis for ideological disagreement with US practices. While Irans overtures to peripheral states have the potential to weaken US attempts to contain and isolate Iran, Tehrans web is fragile and possibly illusory.Israel will attack if diplomacy failsGant Daily- 13AHN, (online Pennsylvania newspaper), U.S. seeks direct talks with Iran as Israel warns of attack. July 14. http://gantdaily.com/2013/07/14/u-s-seeks-direct-talks-with-iran-as-israel-warns-of-attack/. Google. 8/7/13. Euro. Netanyahu said Iran is building faster centrifuges to enrich uranium to 20 percent for nuclear weapons production. He said he will make the decision to attack Iran by winter if the U.S. fails to stop Tehran from making nuclear weapons through diplomacy.

Israel first strike goes nuclear this draws in regional powers and escalates.Russell 2009James (Russell is a Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East. http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf -bg], google, 12/14/11, AW)The chances of clandestine program development increases as more states enter the nuclear business. The motivations for clandestine development increase in the region if Iran successfully crosses the nuclear threshold a situation greatly feared by the Sunni-led states in the Persian Gulf and Middle East. The emergence of clandestine programs in the region creates incentives for preventative attack by a number of actors, some of whom may be nuclear armed. As with the case in the near-term scenarios, any wartime scenarios create the prospect of escalation and nuclear use. Regional powers might also, under extreme circumstances, be tempted to resort to nukes with the belief that it can successfully break the will of its opponent, much like the United States did against its Japanese opponent in 1945. While it currently appears remote, regime(s) change that brings to power millennial extremists constitute another prospect that might factor into long-term use scenarios. Extremist religious and/or ideologically motivated leadership may view nuclear weapons as a useful tool in pursuit of their objectives. The prospect of use by a clandestinely-armed state cannot be dismissed over the longer-term either as a calculated attack on an unsuspecting adversary or in the context of a war for national survival. A nuclear bolt-from-the-blue attack by violent non-state actors or a resort to nuclear use in the belief that it can successfully break the will of its opponent, much like the United States did against its Japanese opponent in 1945, is possible both in short- and long-term scenarios, but is deemed a remote possibility in this analysis. In the Middle East, most terrorist groups fall into the category of religious nationalists that seek localized political objectives. It is difficult to see how using a nuclear weapon advances the cause of groups like Hamas or Hezbollah. On the other hand, millennial extremist groups like Al Qaeda might be more attracted to the possibility of using a nuclear weapon should they come into possession of one. CaseEconomyAlt causes to economic decline Hurricane sandy, structural problems, and the surrounding economiesTamayo 7-1 (Juan O. Tamayo, writer for Miami Herald, Report says Cuban economic growth hasnt quickened despite reforms 7-1-13)Yzquierdo blamed the shortcomings on a broad range of factors that went from last years Hurricane Sandy it caused an estimated $2 billion in damages to what Granma called the deficiencies that are part and parcel of the Cuban economy. Granma and Yzquierdo ticked off a list of reasons for the economic stagnation, from delays in projects to broken contracts and the low productivity and shortage of the labor force as well as the economic situation in Latin America and the rest of the world. Spending on social services remained stable for the first semester of this year, Yzquierdo declared, and many parts of the economy grew at a 2.9 percent clip or better. But the sugar harvest fell 192,000 tons short of goal and bean production fell 6,000 tons short. Government spending on construction and other capital projects was 16.6 percent higher than in the first semester last year but 9 percent short of goal because of delays and others issues, the minister said. Exports grew by 5 percent, Granma reported, and lower prices on imported food meant savings of $168 million. But shortcomings in Cuban farming forced the government to import an unplanned $46 million worth of food. Cuba must import more than 70 percent of the food items it consumes, at a cost of more than $1.5 billion a year. Underlining Cubas economic stagnation, Vice President Marino Murillo, in charge of implementing the Castro reforms, told the Cabinet that the government will promote the use of bicycles to cover gaps in public transportation, according to Granma. We will evaluate the sale at cost of parts for their maintenance, Murillo was quoted as saying in the lengthy Granma report summing up the Cabinet meeting. The government sold Cubans more than 1 million bicycles, most of them made in China, after the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s and halted it massive cash and oil subsidies to the communist-ruled island. But by 1996 about one-third of Havana residents had stopped using their bikes because of the lack of spare parts, the bad state of Cubas streets and lack of night lights, according to a report in 2011 by the Agence France Press news agency. The AFP report noted that Havana authorities had already decided to cut the price of spare parts by 30 percent, guarantee the work of 105 repair shops and 110 air pumping stations and try to create about 100 miles of bike lanes. Murillo also listed a series of problems with the public transportation system bus passengers not paying their fares and bus company employees stealing the money, and a black market for fuel and spare parts mostly stolen from state enterprises. The government plans to use plastic cards to control fuel purchases by public transport employees the principal source of black market fuel crack down on the theft and offer higher salaries to sector workers, he said, without raising prices.Ties with Venezuela overcome U.S. influenceMesa-Lago 13 (Carmelo Mesa-Lago, Cuban economist, author and distinguished professor, On Cuba's Economy 6-11-13)Mesa-Lago: Cuba's economic relationship with Venezuela is vital: 42% of the island's commercial trade in merchandise, 44% of the total deficit in the balance of trade, the provision of 62% of the oil consumed by Cuba, the purchase of Cuban professional services for nearly $5 billion per year and substantial direct investments. In total, it's equivalent to nearly 21% of Cuba's GDP, similar to its relationship with the USSR at its best times. The acceleration of the reforms since October 2012 could have been influenced by the gravity of Chavez's sickness. The controversial election of Nicolas Maduro and the subsequent political instability, aggravated by the severe deterioration of the economy, could affect this relationship with devastating effects for Cuba. Faced with these risks and problems, the logical thing would be to deepen and accelerate the reforms. Alt causes reforms, globalization, and VenezuelaMorris 11 (Emily Morris, Research Associate and Lecturer in Economic Development of Latin America and the Caribbean, FORECASTING CUBASECONOMY 4-2-11)Even in the absence of political collapse, there remain substantial risks of economic instability and weakness. The reform process, which includes the removal of subsidies and extensive realignment of relative prices and incomes, will create inflationary pressures that will be hard to contain. The forecast of a steady rise in average productivity is derived from an expectation that the positive impact of the introduction of market signals and improvement in incentives will outweigh the disruption costs. The slow rate of average real income growth would imply continued pressure on the government to maintain subsidies for basic goods and extend welfare provision to households struggling to adapt to the new conditions, draining fiscal resources and increasing the temptation to raise taxes on productive activity to levels that discourage innovation and enterprise, or push activity back from the formal economy to the informal sector. If Cubas reform wave were to coincide with deteriorating external conditions, rather than the relatively benign scenario presented in the EIUs global assumptions, the political and economic risks would be greater. The danger of upsets in the global economy remains heightened by concerns about high debt levels and sluggish growth in the EU and Europe, and inflated asset prices among the rapidly-growing economies of the developing world. A deterioration in global conditions might feed through to Cuban economic performance through collapse in the nickel price or surge in oil or food prices, or a sudden contraction in tourist arrivals. The single event that would have the greatest negative impact on Cubas economic prospects, however, would be the replacement of Hugo Chvez with a hostile regime in Venezuela, particularly if this were to coincide with high international oil prices. A similar degree of shock, but on the positive side, would arise from the lifting of the US travel ban, opening of the US market to Cuban exports or removal of restrictions on US and multilateral financial flows to Cuba.

Removal wont solve the economy only the government gets moneyBustillo 13 (Mitchell Bustillo, writer for International Policy Digest, Hispanic Heritage Foundation Gold Medallion Winner, and a former United States Senate Page, Time to Strengthen the Cuban Embargo 5-9-13)Still there is the idea that further increasing American tourism to this nearby Caribbean island will at least aid their impoverished citizens in some manner, but this is neither a straight-forward nor easy solution. From the annual throng of American visitors, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio declared at a 2011 Western Hemisphere Subcommittee Hearing that an estimated, $4 billion a year flow directly to the Cuban government from remittances and travel by Cuban Americans, which is perhaps the single largest source of revenue to the most repressive government in the region. These remittances are sent by Americans to help their Cuban families, not support the Cuban government. It is also a common belief that the Cuban embargo is a leading cause of poverty among the Cuban citizens and that lifting the embargo would go a long way toward improving the Cuban standard of living. However, no amount of money can increase the living standards there as long as their current regime stands. After all, the authorities were already skimming 20 percent of the remittances from Cuban-Americans and 90 percent of the salary paid to Cubans by non-American foreign investors, states Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Senior Fellow of The Center on Global Prosperity at The Independent Institute. However unfortunate it may be, Cuba, in its current state, is a nation consisting only of a wealthy and powerful few and an impoverished and oppressed proletariat, who possess little to no means to escape or even improve their fate. Lifting the trade embargo will not increase the general prosperity of the Cuban people, but it will increase the prosperity of the government. Ergo, the poverty and dire situation of the Cuban people cannot be blamed on the United States or the embargo.RelationsRelations improving Cuban domestic reformsPadgett 7-3 (Tim Padgett, WLRN-Miami Herald News' Americas correspondent covering Latin America and the Caribbean, Why This Summer Offers Hope For Better U.S.-Cuba Relations 7-3-13)And yet, despite all that recent cold-war commotion, could this finally be the summer of love on the Florida Straits? Last month the Obama Administration and the Castro dictatorship started talks on re-establishing direct mail service; this month theyll discuss immigration guidelines. Diplomats on both sides report a more cooperative groove. New Diplomacy So what happened thats suddenly making it possible for the two governments to start some substantive diplomatic outreach for the first time in years? First, Castro finished crunching the numbers on Cubas threadbare economy, and the results scared him more than one of Yoani Snchezs dissident blog posts. To wit, the islands finances are held up by little more than European tourists and oil charity from socialist Venezuela. Hes adopted limited capitalist reforms as the remedy, and to make them work he has to loosen the repressive screws a turn or two. That finally includes letting Cubans travel freely abroad, which gives them better opportunities to bring back investment capital. As a result, says Carlos Saladrigas, a Cuban-American business leader in Miami and chairman of the Washington-based Cuba Study Group, The timing is right for some U.S.-Cuban rapprochement. Cuba is clearly in a transitionary mode, says Saladrigas. They need to change to reinsert themselves in the global order, they need to become more normal in their relations with other nations.Theres already a reset in relationsAP 6-21 (Associated Press, Signs point to a thaw in relations between U.S. and Cuba 6-21-13)HAVANA (AP) They've hardly become allies, but Cuba and the U.S. have taken some baby steps toward rapprochement in recent weeks that have people on this island and in Washington wondering if a breakthrough in relations could be just over the horizon. Skeptics caution that the Cold War enemies have been here many times before, only to fall back into old recriminations. But there are signs that views might be shifting on both sides of the Florida Straits. In the past week, the two countries have held talks on resuming direct mail service, and announced a July 17 sit-down on migration issues. In May, a U.S. federal judge allowed a convicted Cuban intelligence agent to return to the island. This month, Cuba informed the family of jailed U.S. government subcontractor Alan Gross that it would let an American doctor examine him, though the visit has apparently not yet happened. President Raul Castro has also ushered in a series of economic and social changes, including making it easier for Cubans to travel off the island. Under the radar, diplomats on both sides describe a sea change in the tone of their dealings. Only last year, Cuban state television was broadcasting grainy footage of American diplomats meeting with dissidents on Havana streets and publically accusing them of being CIA front-men. Today, U.S. diplomats in Havana and Cuban Foreign Ministry officials have easy contact, even sharing home phone numbers. Josefina Vidal, Cuba's top diplomat for North American affairs, recently traveled to Washington and met twice with State Department officials a visit that came right before the announcements of resumptions in the two sets of bilateral talks that had been suspended for more than two years. Washington has also granted visas to prominent Cuban officials, including the daughter of Cuba's president.

2NC frontlineEcon.1. Extend- Tamayo 7-1, indicates that there are alternate causes to economic decline.2. Extend - Mesa-Lago 13, indicates cooperation with Venezuela overcomes a lack of trade with the US.3. Extend- Morris 11, There are alternate causes to a downed economy in cuba.The embargo is not the cause of poverty the Cuban government withholds wealthCruz 12 (Alberto de la Cruz, Managing Editor of Babal Blog, Cuba, USA: Blogger Perspectives on the Embargo's 50th Anniversary (Part 1) 2-29-12)Alberto de la Cruz (AC): It is hard to argue the US embargo against the Castro dictatorship hurts the Cuban people when in 2010 (the latest figures available), the Cuban government imported over $400-million in food from the US. While the embargo limits trade, it allows food to be sold to the Cuban government on a cash basis. If that food is not reaching the average Cuban and is instead being sent to the Cuban military owned hotels and resorts to feed tourists, that is not because of the embargo, it is because of the Castro regime [which] ultimately controls the distribution of all food on the island. It is interesting to note that none of those who suggest the trade embargo against the Castro dictatorship hurts only the average Cuban can explain why the vast majority of Cubans continue to live in abject poverty when the Castro government, according to their own figures, had over $8-billion dollars in imports in 2010. While Cubans struggle to feed their families, Cuban children are denied milk once they turn six, the most basic items are nearly impossible to find, and ration books are still in use. In Cubas tourist hotels and resorts, which again, are owned by the Cuban military, there is no shortage of food, soap, milk, or anything else. If an embargo is hurting the Cuban people, it is the embargo placed upon them by the Castro regime.The embargo has no effect Cuba trades with other countriesChapman 10 (Steve Chapman, Staff writer, Cuba and the Death of Communism 9-18-10)The regime prefers to blame any problems on the Yankee imperialists, who have enforced an economic embargo for decades. In fact, its effect on the Cuban economy is modest, since Cuba trades freely with the rest of the world. How potent can the boycott be when we're the only participant? Cubans have had to pay for their meager economic gains by surrendering their political liberties. In its latest annual report, Human Rights Watch says, "Cuba remains the one country in Latin America that represses virtually all forms of political dissent." Structural problems prevent growthLaverty 11 (Collin Laverty, Cubas New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for U.S. Policy Copyright 2011)Economists contend that Cuba needs to develop policies to attract increased foreign investment in productive sectors and adjust domestic investment schemes so that more funds are directed toward farms and factories. CubAS NE W RESOLvE: ECONOm iC REFORm AND iTS imP LiCATiONS FOR u .S . PO LiCy 42 Productive sectors of the economy will become more competitive and efficient only if state-owned enterprises are given greater autonomy in labor and pricing policies, and forced to go under when unprofitable. The government has acknowledged the challenge of reigniting productive sectors of the economy to some degree in the Guidelines, but has yet to introduce concrete policy solutions to get this underway. Although the Guidelines call for increased investment in productive sectors and participation of foreign capital, they do not outline clear policy steps to make those goals reality. Current Cuban law allows for foreign investment in nearly any sector of the economy and the document calls for seeking increased investment in the sugar industry and developing special economic zones. However, aside from development of golf courses and accompanying villas, and large infrastructure projects, no significant new joint-venture projects have yet been announced. Relations1. Extend- Relations improving Cuban domestic reformsPadgett 7-3 (Tim Padgett, WLRN-Miami Herald News' Americas correspondent covering Latin America and the Caribbean, Why This Summer Offers Hope For Better U.S.-Cuba Relations 7-3-13)And yet, despite all that recent cold-war commotion, could this finally be the summer of love on the Florida Straits? Last month the Obama Administration and the Castro dictatorship started talks on re-establishing direct mail service; this month theyll discuss immigration guidelines. Diplomats on both sides report a more cooperative groove. New Diplomacy So what happened thats suddenly making it possible for the two governments to start some substantive diplomatic outreach for the first time in years? First, Castro finished crunching the numbers on Cubas threadbare economy, and the results scared him more than one of Yoani Snchezs dissident blog posts. To wit, the islands finances are held up by little more than European tourists and oil charity from socialist Venezuela. Hes adopted limited capitalist reforms as the remedy, and to make them work he has to loosen the repressive screws a turn or two. That finally includes letting Cubans travel freely abroad, which gives them better opportunities to bring back investment capital. As a result, says Carlos Saladrigas, a Cuban-American business leader in Miami and chairman of the Washington-based Cuba Study Group, The timing is right for some U.S.-Cuban rapprochement. Cuba is clearly in a transitionary mode, says Saladrigas. They need to change to reinsert themselves in the global order, they need to become more normal in their relations with other nations.2. Extend- Theres already a reset in relationsAP 6-21 (Associated Press, Signs point to a thaw in relations between U.S. and Cuba 6-21-13)HAVANA (AP) They've hardly become allies, but Cuba and the U.S. have taken some baby steps toward rapprochement in recent weeks that have people on this island and in Washington wondering if a breakthrough in relations could be just over the horizon. Skeptics caution that the Cold War enemies have been here many times before, only to fall back into old recriminations. But there are signs that views might be shifting on both sides of the Florida Straits. In the past week, the two countries have held talks on resuming direct mail service, and announced a July 17 sit-down on migration issues. In May, a U.S. federal judge allowed a convicted Cuban intelligence agent to return to the island. This month, Cuba informed the family of jailed U.S. government subcontractor Alan Gross that it would let an American doctor examine him, though the visit has apparently not yet happened. President Raul Castro has also ushered in a series of economic and social changes, including making it easier for Cubans to travel off the island. Under the radar, diplomats on both sides describe a sea change in the tone of their dealings. Only last year, Cuban state television was broadcasting grainy footage of American diplomats meeting with dissidents on Havana streets and publically accusing them of being CIA front-men. Today, U.S. diplomats in Havana and Cuban Foreign Ministry officials have easy contact, even sharing home phone numbers. Josefina Vidal, Cuba's top diplomat for North American affairs, recently traveled to Washington and met twice with State Department officials a visit that came right before the announcements of resumptions in the two sets of bilateral talks that had been suspended for more than two years. Washington has also granted visas to prominent Cuban officials, including the daughter of Cuba's president.