general assembly 1 - lemun

GeneralAssembly1

RaphaelRidderandDaanZieren

ResearchReportTheQuestionof:

IncreasingtensionsinthestraitofTaiwan

ResearchReport LeidenModelUnitedNations2019

~freshideas,newsolutions~

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IntroductionAfterworldwarIIChinawassplitintotwoparties.ThecommunistPeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)andthenationalistRepublicofChina(ROC).ThePRC,undertheruleofMaoZedong,managedtoexpandovertheentiremainlandofChina.TheypushedtheROCawaytotheislandofTaiwan.TheUnitedStatedofAmerica(USA)decidedthattheyhadtointervene.TheypreventedthePRCfrominvadingTaiwanandmadeapledgein1955topreventanyinvasioninTaiwaninthe

future.FortheUSAthiswasabufferforcommunistexpansionintheregion.ThepledgeenabledtheROCtoexistontheislandofTaiwan.Theyknowhaveademocraticelectedgovernment,anarmyandtradewithothercountries.However,theyhaveneverbeenrecognizedbytheUnitedNations,sinceChinastillseesTaiwanasaprovinceoftheirone-stateChina.ThePRCandROCbelievethattheyarethetrue

successorsoftheemperorofChina,whowasremovedwiththeChineserevolutionin1912.TheydonotbelievetheotherhasrightfulauthorityoverChina.TheROCseesthePRCasanevilpowerthathastakenChinafromtheirrightfulowners,whilethePRCseestheROCasamilitiathatholdspowerinTaiwanillegally.ThefactthatbothgovernmentsclaimtobegoverningChinamakestheconflictsuchacomplicatedone.TheUNadmittedthePRCintheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyandexpelledtheROC,whichhadbeenafoundingmemberoftheUnitedNationsandwasoneofthefivemembersofthepermanentmembersoftheSecurityCouncil.AftermoreandmorenationsbegantorecognizethePRC,includingtheUnitedStates.AlotofnationsstoppedrecognizingtheROCandstartedrecognizingthePRC.Currentlyonly16outofthe193membersoftheUnitedNationsrecognizetheROC.Since2008relationsbetweenTaipeiandBeijinghavegrown.Multiplehigh-levelandofficialmeetingsbetweentheleadersandgovernmentsofficialshavehappened.Althoughtensionshavedecreased,tensionsareagainarising.Dialoguebetweenthenationshasbeensuspendedin2016.InJulywesawthatAmericanNavalshipsthatsailedthroughthestraitofTaiwanledtooutrage.Thisoccurredinaseriesofoccurrences.InJunethegovernmentofTaiwanhadalreadymadeanewweapondealwiththeUSA.ThestraitofTaiwanisnolongeronlyaconflictbetweentheROCandthePRC.ItseemsthatthestraitofTaiwanisabattlefieldbetweentheUSA,Russia,Chinaandothernationsinvolved.It’simportantthatnationsworktogethertopreventfurtherescalation.



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TheCommitteeTheGeneralAssemblyFirstcommittee,alsoreferredtoasGA1,isacommitteeconcerningdisarmamentandinternationalsecurity.TheUNgeneralassemblyfirstcommitteedealswithissuesandinternationalchallengesthatthreatenpeaceandcandisrupttheglobalcommunity.TheUNcommitteethereforetendstoworkcloselywiththedisarmamentcommitteeinevaluatingallmethodstobringpeacetopressingissues.Thecommitteewasthefirsttocreatearesolutionofthegeneralassembliesconcerning:“EstablishmentofaCommissiontoDealwiththeProblemsRaisedbytheDiscoveryofAtomicEnergy”passedin1946inordertomaintaintheusageofAtomicEnergy,thathadrecentlybeendiscoveredandmonitoranyproblemsthatcouldbecreatedthroughit.Theycontinuouslyworkonresolvingissuestoworktowardsthegreatergoalofestablishingpeace.TheGeneralAssemblycommitteeswilljoinforaplenarysessioninordertodiscussthreeresolutions,onefromeachoftheGeneralAssemblycommitteesthathaspassedintheirowncommittee.TheplenarysessionwilltakeplaceonthethirddayoftheconferenceandwillconcludethissessionofLEMUNforthegeneralassemblycommittees.

KeyTermsOne-ChinaPolicy:ApolicythatstatesthatthereisonlyonesovereignstateunderthenameofChina,despitethefactthattherearetwogovernments:TheRepublicofChinaandthePeople’sRepublicofChina.Two-ChinaPolicy:ApolicythatbelievesintheexistenceoftwosovereignstatesunderthenameofChina.TheRepublicofChinainTaiwanandthePeople’sRepublicofChinainmainlandChina.PRC:ThePeople’sRepublicofChina.ThecommunistgovernmentsthathascontroloverallmainlandChineseterritories.ROC: TheRepublic of China.The regime that originates from theKuomintangnationalists and iscurrentlyademocraticstate.ThestraitofTaiwan:AseastraitthatseparatestheislandofTaiwanfromthemainlandofChina.



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GeneralOverviewIn1912thelastemperorofChinafromtheQingdynastygaveuphispowerin1912aftermilitantgroupshaveledviolentprotestsandrevolutionsalloverChina.Anewrepublicarose:TheRepublicofChina (ROC).The republicwasn’t very stableandwasa reason for communist andnationalistgroupstoformmilitias,particularlytheKuomintang(KMT)andtheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC).TheleaderoftheKuomintangtookpoweroftherepublicin1920.Moreandmoreresistancefromcommunistgroupsaroseandthesegroupsfoughtabloodywarfrom1927until1937,whenJapaneseforcesinvadedChina.ThewarwithJapanstoppedfightingbetweenthesegroupsandtheyunitedagainsttheJapaneseuntil1945.AfterthewarJapanreturnedtheChineseterritoriestotheROCandthecivilwarresumed.TheCPC,undertheruleofMaoZedong,seemedhowevertogainmoreandmorecontroloverChineseterritories.In1949theCPCdefeatedtheKMTonthemainlandofChinawhichforcedtheKMTtoretreattotheislandofTaiwan.TheCPCfoundedthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC),leadbyMaoZedong.TheRepublicofChinacontinuedtoexistontheislandofTaiwan.Thisledtoastrangesituation.TheRepublicofChinahadbeenpartofmultiplemeetingswithvariousnationsduringWorldWarIIandwasoneofthefoundingmembersoftheUnitedNations.FurthermoretheROCwastherecognizedrulerofChinaaccordingtothemajorityofnations.SincetheROChad already established ties to other countries, they received support in first hand. TheUS gavemilitarysupport,but stoppeddoingso in1949.When theKoreanwarbrokeout in1950, theUSchangeditspolicyagainandsentwarshipstothestraitofTaiwantopreventafurtherescalationoftheconflictbetweenthetwosides.Whenin1954ChinaattackedislandsthatwerestillincontroloftheROC(TheFirstTaiwanStraitCrisis),theU.S.CongresspassedabillthatmadeapledgetoprotecttheislandofTaiwan,alsocalledFormosa,fromanyinvasionfromthePRC.Tensionsbetweenthetwonationsstayedatahighpeakandin1958theanotherattackfromthePRConterritoryoftheROCfollowed.DuetothefactthattheROCnowcouldcountonthehelpoftheUS,no territorywas lost.After thisbothnationscontinued tostate theywouldeventuallycontrolallChineseterritoriesandbothpreparedforapossibleattack.EventheROCwouldstatethattheywouldonceattackthePRCandreclaimthemainlandofChina.MoreandmorenationsintheworldhoweverbegantoacknowledgethatthePRCwasthetrueChina.ManynationsstoppedrecognizingtheROCandin1971theylosttheirpositionasamemberoftheUnitedStatestothePRC.ThePRCalsotooktheirpositionintheSecurityCouncilasapermanentmember.TheUnitedStatesstoppedrecognizingthe ROC in 1978, however they still held tieswith the ROC. Instead of an embassy, there is theAmericanInstituteinTaiwanthathasingeneralthesamedutiesasanembassy.Tension eventually decreased and in 1987Martial law, called the temporary provisions effectiveduringtheperiodofNationalMobilizationforSuppressionoftheCommunistRebellion,endedafteritbecameclearthatretakingthemainlandwasimpossible.Thisopenedagatefordemocraticreformsandallowedtheparliamenttohaveanoppositionandelectionsformoreofficialpositions.In1995just before the elections of the President of the ROC, the PRC did a series of missile tests justkilometersawayfromtheislandofTaiwan.TheUSArespondedbysendingnavalshipstothestraitofTaiwan.Daysbefore theelectionanotherseriesofmissile testsweredonebythePRC.TheUSresponded by sending twoUS navy battle carrier groups to internationalwaters in the strait ofTaiwan.ThecrisishadacounterintuitiveeffectforthePRC,becauserelationsbetweenTaiwanandtheUSwereasstrongaseverandweapon-tradebetweentheUSandtheROCgrewsignificantly.Theelectionwaswonbythesworn-enemyofthePRC:LeeTeng-Hui.Fromthenontensionsseemedtoonlydecrease.In2008dialoguebetweentheROCandPRCtookplaceonamoreadvanced level.Agreementsweremadeconcerning sea trafficbetweenover thestrait and regular flight over the strait arose. Both nations signed the Cross-Strait Service Trade



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Agreement which should liberalize trade in services between the nations. This led toprotestsinTaiwan,butingeneralopinionstowardsthestrengtheningofrelationswereverypositive.Thiseventuallybuilduptothefirstmeetingbetweentheleadersofthenationsin2015inSingapore.Thiswasthefirst meeting in over 60 years. A peaceful two-Chinasolutionseemedmorelikelytohappen.However since2016 tensionshave again grewbetweenthesides.Dialoguewasagainsuspended.The trade-warbetweenChinaandtheUSisoneofthecauses.ThecurrentadministrationoftheUS-governmenthasstrengtheneditsties, which began immediate in 2016 when presidentTrumpacceptedacallfromthePresidentoftheROC.TheROChasunratifiedtheCross-StraitServiceTradeAgreement.ThePresidentoftheROCTsaiIng-wenhasvisitedtheUSinrecentyearsmultipletimestospeakonUS-TaiwanandCross-Straitrelationsandin2017anofficialbillpassedtoallowhigh level visits between government officials. This has led to outrage in the PRC,who say theycondemnanyofficialcontactbetweenTaiwanandtheUS.Onamilitaryleveltensionsalsohavegrown.ThePRCmovedarmytrainingcomplexesawayfromtheChinesecoasttoamoreinlandprivateplace.Theyhaveincreasedtheirmilitarybuild-upwithafarbiggerbudgetthenbefore.TheROCandtheAmericanshaverespondedbyincreasingthemilitaryoftheROC.TheTrumpadministrationhassailedthroughthestraitofTaiwanmoreoftenthantheObamaadministration.ThecurrentadministrationhasalsorecommendedtheROCtopurchaseF-16jetsfromtheAmericansandannouncedanewweapondealwiththeTaiwanesegovernmentinJunethisyear.TheUSnavyhadsentwarshipsnotlongafterthisthroughtheStraitofTaiwaninordertoensure freedom of navigation. The Chinese administration responded by accusing the US of“undermining global strategic stability” by violating the ‘One China Policy’ where the USacknowledgedthatTaiwanispartofChina.InawhitepaperpresentedbydefenseministerWuon24July2019.XiJinping’spresidencyalsosaidtheywerereadytogotowarifTaiwantriestogainindependence.TaiwanresidesbetweenthePRCandtheUSA.Theirtrade-warandpowerstruggle influencestheTaiwan-straitconflict.Theconflict isextremelysensitive foranyactionsbythePRCandtheUSA.Whatisdefinitelysure,isthatareunificationintheupcomingyearsishighlyunrealistic.IfTaiwanwillturnouttobeabattlefieldbetweenthePRCandtheUSA,it’slikelythatthepopulationwillturnoutasthevictim.



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MajorPartiesInvolvedThe People’s Republic of China ThePRCisthegovernmentofChinathatrulesovermainlandChinaanditsoveronebillioncitizenssince1949.Itisacommunistcountry.ThegovernmentstillseesTaiwanasaprovinceofChinaandbelievethatthereisonly‘oneChina’andthatTaiwanisaninalienablepartofitthatwilleventuallybepartofthecountry.Since2009relationswiththeRepublicofChinaweregettingbetter,butsince2016therehaven’tbeenanymeetingsbetweenthegovernmentsanymore.The Republic of China TheRepublicofChinawasthegovernmentthatoriginatedKuomintangmovement intheChinesecivilwar.Theyweredefeatedby thecommunistmovementand forced toretreat to the islandofTaiwan.In1987martiallaw,thatwasestablishedinordertodefendthemfromthePRC,endedandthenationsstartedtodemocratize.Only16nationsrecognizethenation,althoughithasthemostcharacteristicsofanindependentstate.TheyhavenotbeenamemberoftheUnitedNationssince1971.TheirdefenseandeconomyreliesheavilyontheUnitedStatesofAmerica.TradewithChinahasbeengrowinginthelast20years.The United States of America TheUSAisbyfarTaiwan’smostimportantallyandfriend.TheysupportTaiwaneconomicallywithtradeandstrategicallywithweaponsandotherformsofstrategicresources.InthepasttheyhavealsogavetheROCmilitaryaid.TheyonlyrecognizethePRC,butstillhavediplomaticrelationswiththeROCinmoreinformalwaysandtheyareboundbylawtoprotectTaiwanfromanyinvasionbythePRC.Theybelieve in freenavigationof theTaiwan straitwhich theyhave shown inmultipleoccasionsofnavalshipssailingthroughthestrait.Currentlyatrade-warisinfestingthePRCandtheUSA,whichcouldaffecttheconflictinthestraitofTaiwan.The United Nations TheUNhasonlyrecognizedthePRCandtheROCisexcludedfromalmostallactivitiesoftheUnitedNationssince1971.TheabsenceoftheROCmakesitmorecomplicatedfortheUNtoplayasupportingroleintheconflictofthestraitofTaiwan.



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TimelineofEventsDate Event1912 ChineserevolutionariesoverthrowtheQing

EmpireandestablishtheROCinChina1927-1937 Communistinsurgency1939-1945 WorldWarIISeptember2,1945 ThesurrenderofJapaninChinaandthebegin

oftheprocessofreturningChineseterritories1946-1949 ResumptionoffightingbetweenROCandPRC1949 RetreatoftheROCtotheislandofTaiwanand

thecaptureofthecompleteChinesemainlandbythePRC

1954-1955 FirstTaiwanStraitCrisis1955 TheFormosaResolutionisacceptedbytheU.S.

Congress1958 SecondTaiwanStraitCrisis1971 PRCisadmittedtotheUNandtheROC

withdrawsfromtheUN1978 Endingofdiplomaticrelationsbetweenthe

USAandtheROC1987 MartiallawinTaiwanends,whichresultsin

moredemocratization1995-1996 ThirdTaiwanStraitCrisis2009 FirsttalksbetweentheROCandthePRC,which

resultindirectair-andsea-trafficbetweenthenations

2015 PresidentMaandPresidentXiJinpingmeetinSingapore,thefirstmeetingbetweentheleadersofthePRCandROCin66years

2016 SuspensionoftalksbetweentheROCandthePRC

2018-2019 NewtensionsinthestraitariseJune,2019 NewweapondealbetweentheUSAandthe

ROCJuly,2019 US-warshipssailedthroughtheTaiwanstrait



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PreviousattemptstosolvetheissueThehistoryoftheCrossStraitrelationscharacterizesitselfbyaconstantmovement.Weseealotofprogressatthestartofthiscentury.Therewasdialoguebetweenthegovernmentsandagreementsweremade.However,sincetheTrumpadministrationisinoffice,alotoftheprogressalreadyseemslost.Inthepastwe’veseenthetwonationsthreateningeachotherandpreparingthemselvesforanupcomingattackontheother.InTaiwanit’snowclearthattheROCwillhavenochanceinretakingthemainlandofChina.ThePRChowever,stillstatesthattheywillhavecontroloverTaiwaninthefuture.Since1993TaiwaneseofficialstrytogettheROCbackasamemberoftheUnitedNations.AlltheirrequestshavebeendeniedbytheSecretary-General,duetotheOne-ChinaPolicythattheUNshares.Intheperiodbetween2008and2016wesawthebestattemptintryingtosolvetheissue.Thenationstalkedtogetheronahigh-levelandmadeagreementsconcerningtransportandeconomy.Thepeakofthesehigh-leveltalkswasfoundin2015whenthetwoleadersmetinSingapore.ThesetalkssortofsuggestedaTwo-ChinaPolicy,whichisn’tstrangeconcerningthatthemajorityofthepeopleinTaiwanfeelTaiwaneseinsteadofChinese.However,recentstatementsbythePRCshowthatthePRCisdefinitelynotinfavorofTwo-ChinaPolicy.

TheFutureWiththeincreasingtensionsintheStraitofTaiwanwecanonlyhopeitwillnotfurtherescalate.Bothpartiesseemtopreparethemselvesforapossiblefightinthefuture.Withthetrade-warbetweenChinaandtheUSAinmind,wecanbesurethattheconflictwilllastawhile.IfAmericacontinuestoinvolveTaiwanintheirconflictwithChina,thesituationcouldescalateinviolence.It’slikelythattheROCandthePRCwillnotattackeachotherinthenearfuture.TheROChasalreadyacceptedthattheywillnotbeabletoretakethemainlandandthePRCknowsthatittheROChasapowerfulalleyintheUSAwithwhomtheyprobablydon’twanttomess.AndecisivemomentforthefutureoftheStraitofTaiwanistheelectionofnextyear.ThetwopartiestheKMTandDPPdifferinpolicytowardsChinaandtheUSA.TheKMTwillwanttokeeptieswiththePRC,whiletheDPPismoreaimedatfriendlyrelationswiththeUSA.TheresultoftheelectionwillprobablyformtheCross-Straitrelationsinthenearfuture.TheelectioninAmericaisprobablyjustasimportant,sincetheTrump-administrationhasamoreaggressivestrategythanotheradministrations.Thusitseemsthatthesetensionswillnotdecreaseinthenearfuture,butalsonotcauseanyrealfurtherescalation.Withtherightcooperationbetweenparties,tensionscouldagaindecreasetensions.Perhapsit’spossibleforbothChinastoacceptaTwo-ChinasPolicy,wheretheycanliveinpeachwitheachother.



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QuestionsaResolutionMustAnswer(Q.A.R.M.A.)Itisimportanttoknowthatthesepossiblesolutionsorpointstothinkaboutarejustforguidance.Alldelegatesmayproceedinwhicheverdirectiontheybelieveisbestfortheirnationandtheiralliances.Itisalsoimportanttothinkandlookfurtherthanthesesolutionsinordertocreateamorebeneficialresolution.ShouldtheUNchangeitsOne-ChinaPolicytoaTwo-ChinaPolicyinordertoaccepttheROCasamemberoftheUnitedNationsorshouldtheycontinuetheircurrentpolicyinordertorespectthePRC’swishes?IsitinthatcaseanoptiontoworktogetherinotherwayswiththeROCtofindapeacefulsolution?ShouldtheUnitedStatesofAmericainvolvethemselvesintheconflictbetweenthetwoChinas?Andisitlegitimatetosupportacountryyoudon’trecognizeandtechnicallydon’thaveanydiplomaticconnectionwith.TheUSAsupportingtheROC,whilealsohavegivenrecognitiontothePRCcouldseemabithypocritical.HowcanwepreventTaiwanfromfallingintoaconflictbetweenChinaandtheUSA.MuchharmcouldbedoneintheStraitofTaiwanbecauseofitssensitivestate.TheUSAcouldeasilyescalatethesituationbymakingdecisionstosupporttheROCandangerthePRC.Howcanwedecreasethetensionsandtrytoignitemoretalksbetweenthenations?Wesawthattheperiodbetween2008and2016wasapeakincommunicationbetweenthenations.Howdowecontinuethesetalksandmakethecommunicationmorefluent?

FurtherReadinghttps://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-China-Taiwanrelationshttps://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2156235/strait-talk-are-china-and-taiwan-brink-conflict-Straittalk:AreChinaandTaiwanonthebrinkofconflict?https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538-Whats’sbehindtheChina-Taiwandividehttps://www.jstor.org/stable/2555319?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents–ResolvingCross-StraitRelationsbetweenTaiwanandChina



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BibliographyAli,I.,&Wu,H.(2019,July25).U.S.warshipsailsthroughTaiwanStrait,stirstensionswithChina.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-china-military/u-s-warship-sails-through-taiwan-strait-stirs-tensions-with-china-idUSKCN1UJ370Copper,J.C.Taiwan-Taiwansince2000.https://www.britannica.com/place/Taiwan/Taiwan-since-2000Harner,S.(2015,19June).HowToSolveThe“TaiwanProblem”InU.S.-ChinaRelations.https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2015/06/17/how-to-solve-the-worsening-taiwan-problem-in-u-s-china-relations/Jiang,S.,&Wescott,B.(2019,24July).China’sMilitarywarnsagainstgrowingthreatfromTaiwan“seperatists”.https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/24/asia/china-military-taiwan-white-paper-intl-hnk/index.htmlMitter,R.(2018,21July).Straittalk:areChinaandTaiwanonthebrinkofconflict?https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2156235/strait-talk-are-china-and-taiwan-brink-conflictOfficeoftheHistorian.TheChineserevolutionof1949.https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/chinese-revPattenson,J.(2019,29July).ChinaStartsMassiveMilitaryExercisesNearTaiwan.https://www.ibtimes.com/china-starts-massive-military-exercises-near-taiwan-2809371Ramekers,T.(2016,20June).ChinaenTaiwan.DegeschiedenisvantweeChina’s.https://historiek.net/china-en-taiwan/54381/Taiwanprofile.(2019,1February).https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16178545TheNewYorkTimes.(2007,24July).UNrejectsTaiwanapplicationforentry.https://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/24/world/asia/24iht-taiwan.1.6799766.html?_r=0Wadhams,N.,Jacobs,J.,Leonard,J.,&Capaccio,A.(2019,21March).ChinaprotestspossibleTrumpmovetosellF-16stoTaiwan.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-21/trump-aides-said-to-back-selling-f-16-fighter-planes-to-taiwan

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