generating employment in microenterprises christopher woodruff, university of warwick based on joint...

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Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop on Employment NYU Stern School of Business September 25-26, 2011

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Page 1: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Generating Employment in Microenterprises

Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick

Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie

Workshop on Employment NYU Stern School of Business

September 25-26, 2011

Page 2: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Project motivation

• As much as half of the labor force in low-income countries is self employed. – Can we stimulate more employment generation

among these enterprises? – If so, how?

Page 3: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Project motivation• Previous project: Provided capital injections into

microenterprises in Sri Lanka– Large increases in profits– But no change in employment

• Data suggest that learning to manage non-family employees is a particularly difficult step to make– Management skills? – How to hire, how to manage– Types? – How will the owner determine if he/she is an

effective manager?– Need for a large lump of capital to make the new worker

productive?– Training required to make a new worker productive?

Page 4: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Project motivation• This project: examine the reasons why the non-

employer to employer transition is so challenging • We offer selected firms 1 or 2 of the following:– Matched savings program (50-100% match rates, ‘locked’ for

9 months)– Training (ILO “Improve Your Business”)– Incentives to hire new worker (4000 LKR, ~50% of unskilled

wage)

Page 5: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Project motivation

• Data suggest that learning to manage non-family employees is a particularly difficult step to make– Management skills? – How to hire, how to manage– Types? – How will the owner determine if he/she is an

effective manager?– Need for a large lump of capital to make the new

worker productive?– Training required to make a new worker productive?

Page 6: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Sample• Sample of 1535 Sri Lankan microenterprise owners– Male– Urban areas (Colombo, Kandy, Galle)– Selected through door-to-door screening exercise of

households– aged 20 to 45– with 2 or fewer employees (87% non-employers)

Page 7: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Timeline of projectApr 2008Apr 2008

April 2009April 2009

Screening and baseline surveyScreening and baseline survey

Oct 2008Oct 2008 Baseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-upBaseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-up

October 2009October 2009

April 2010April 2010

October 2010October 2010

April 2011April 2011

October 2011October 2011

Page 8: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Timeline of projectApr 2008Apr 2008

April 2009April 2009

Screening and baseline surveyScreening and baseline survey

Oct 2008Oct 2008 Baseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-upBaseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-up

Nov 2008: Begin matched savings programNov 2008: Begin matched savings program

August 2009: Savings program account ‘unlocked’ August 2009: Savings program account ‘unlocked’

October 2009October 2009

April 2010April 2010

October 2010October 2010

April 2011April 2011

October 2011October 2011

Page 9: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Timeline of projectApr 2008Apr 2008

April 2009April 2009

Screening and baseline surveyScreening and baseline survey

June - July 2009: Training program June - July 2009: Training program

Oct 2008Oct 2008 Baseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-upBaseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-up

Nov 2008: Begin matched savings programNov 2008: Begin matched savings program

August 2009: Savings program account ‘unlocked’ August 2009: Savings program account ‘unlocked’

October 2009October 2009

April 2010April 2010

October 2010October 2010

April 2011April 2011

October 2011October 2011

Page 10: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Timeline of projectApr 2008Apr 2008

April 2009April 2009

Screening and baseline surveyScreening and baseline survey

June - July 2009: Training program June - July 2009: Training program

Oct 2008Oct 2008 Baseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-upBaseline survey for ‘booster’ sample + follow-up

Nov 2008: Begin matched savings programNov 2008: Begin matched savings program

August 2009: Begin wage subsidies August 2009: Begin wage subsidies

August 2009: Savings program account ‘unlocked’ August 2009: Savings program account ‘unlocked’

October 2009October 2009

May 2010: Wage incentives end May 2010: Wage incentives end April 2010April 2010

October 2010October 2010

April 2011April 2011

October 2011October 2011

Page 11: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Sample: Random allocation to cells

Note: Stratified on retail vs non-retail and region (Colombo area, Kandy area, Galle area).

Page 12: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Take-up: Proportion of those offered

Number Offered % Participating

Savings 559 81.4% (455)

Training 589 57.9% (341) (1)

Employment 845 29.2% (247)

(1) Based on the percentage completing the training course. 368 (62.5%) began the training course.

Page 13: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Who takes up: Employment

De Mel et al, May 2010 AER P&P. Based on initial take-up by 22% of the sample.

Page 14: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect of training on management practices

Page 15: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect of savings program on inventory levels

Page 16: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect of wage incentives on having a paid worker

Page 17: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect of wage incentives on wage expense

Page 18: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect of programs on employment

Page 19: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect on employment: program interactions

Page 20: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect on wage bill, investments

Page 21: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect on sales, profits

Page 22: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Effect on sales…

Page 23: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

…expenses…

Page 24: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

…and profits

Page 25: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Conclusions

• Among a sample of microenterprises, temporary wage subsidies appear to result in:– increases in employment, even after the subsidies are

removed.– Weaker evidence on an increase in sales and profits

• Surprisingly, a matched savings plan generates employment effects of a comparable size

• A standard training program generated no employment effects and only marginally significant effects on investment and sales

Page 26: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Conclusions and policy

• The preliminary results suggest that, with encouragement, microenterprises some non-employers can become employers

• Even if 10% of microenterprise owners create a single (additional) job, that would create jobs for ~3% of the labor force in a typical low / middle income country

Page 27: Generating Employment in Microenterprises Christopher Woodruff, University of Warwick Based on joint work with Suresh De Mel and David Mckenzie Workshop

Thank You!