geo energy management meeting wmo, 28-29 august 2006 earth observations and energy management expert...
TRANSCRIPT
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Earth Observations and Energy
Management
Expert Meeting
Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Earth Observations for Energy Activities
• A two-step process (a) Use of new earth observations can improve weather forecast products
(b) Improved weather forecasts can lead to improved forecasts of energy demand / production However, direct link between new observations and energy applications difficult to establish (unless instrument x improves parameter y, which is particularly important for specific energy application)
• Probabilistic forecast systems seem to be especially appropriate to use in decision-making processes First (idealised) experiments on potential economic value of weather fc’s suggest that probabilistic forecasts outperform deterministic forecasts
More studies with “real” application data are necessary
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Gaps in data & products
• Information on “quality” of forecasts Users need to know how much they can trust the forecast information
- what was the general performance of the forecasts in the past?
re-forecast systems
- how certain/uncertain is this particular forecast for today?
probabilistic (ensemble) forecast methods
• Information on what forecasts are needed Forecast producers need to know which information is needed in what quality
- are there “exact” limits of when a forecast is useful / not useful
e.g. min Temperature in last 24h at LHR +/- 2K?
average precipitation over Norway in last month +/- 50mm?
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Enhanced Capabilities for the Future
• Improved forecasts due to assimilation of new MetOp data
IASI is expected to have similar impact as AIRS, but oper!
• Ensemble prediction system(s)
already available (but underused), more data soon (TIGGE)
• Re-forecast datasets
in development, real potential has to be established
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
NO SATNO R/SFULL SYSTEM
Impact of different
observation types
Northern hemisphere
Southern hemisphere
Forecast range (days)
Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height
(Mean over two summer and two winter months)
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Satellite data provide robustness to the global numerical forecasts (forecast busts are much reduced)
NO SAT
FULL SYSTEM
NO RADIOSONDES
NO SAT
FULL SYSTEM
NO RADIOSONDES
SUMMER
WINTER
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
HIRS Jacobians(all channels)
AIRS Jacobians(1/10th of channels)
Higher Spectral Resolution from Advanced Sounders
•Higher vertical resolution and better accuracy
• a lot of data to handle
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Southern Hemisphere scores
50
60
70
80
90
100
DAY 3 DAY 5 DAY 7
Forecast range
An
om
aly
corr
elat
ion
(%
)
CONTROL
NORAD + 3 AMSUA
NORAD + 1 AIRS
NORAD
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Northern Hemisphere scores
50
60
70
80
90
100
DAY 3 DAY 5 DAY 7
Forecast range
An
om
aly
corr
elat
ion
(%
)
CONTROL
NORAD+ 3 AMSUA
NORAD+ 1 AIRS
NORAD
GEO Energy Management Meeting WMO, 28-29 August 2006
Research - Operations - Demonstrations
• Transition from research to operations: Relatively easy to achieve because of close link between OD and RD
Data availability from research vs. operational satellites?
• Possible demonstration projects: “Data denial” experiments?
Assess difference in decision-making process / benefits under 2 scenarios:
control: no forecast information vs. exp: with forecast information