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ISSN 1837-8161 / Copyright 2019 © GEODATE

GEODATEVolume 32, Issue 3, 2019

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CONTENTSRecent cases and perspectives on population ageing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Brazil and the toxic politics of pension reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

China’s demographic timebomb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Vietnam: Getting old before getting rich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

The Japanese ’model’? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Summary: The BRICs are ageing – what should we do? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Urban dynamics in New York – A large city in the developed world . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

New York City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Changing economic character . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Social Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

East Harlem – an area of disadvantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Ecological Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

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If this short article had a subtitle or tagline, it would be something like, “the BRICs are ageing, so what should we do?” In a 2001 report on emerging economies, the investment bank Goldman Sachs highlighted the countries Brazil, Russia, India, and China as part of distinctive bloc of emerging economies, and the acronym they used for these countries – BRICs – has stuck ever since . But now, 18 years on, the BRICs countries face a surprising challenge to their economic growth and “emergence” as major world economies: the unforeseen challenge of population ageing .

Population ageing is presenting a range of fiscal and financial pressures in emerging economies, none more important than the pressure of pension liabilities: that is, the financial responsibility to pay for the care of the elderly. This brief article looks first at the problem of public pension liabilities in Brazil and China, and then considers how similar problems are spreading to other parts of the world including Asia . Finally, it examines how various ageing Asian societies are looking to their neighbour Japan, the textbook case of ‘demographic winter’, as an unexpected model of how to deal with ageing .

Brazil and the toxic politics of pension reformBrazil is home to almost one in thirty-five people alive today, or just under three percent of the world’s population . Brazil is also the ‘B’ in BRICS . But despite its image as an up-and-coming economic star, Brazil is faced with a fiscal crisis, at the heart of which is a growing public pension bill, which in recent years has mushroomed to almost 90% of GDP, and is rising at a rate 4% higher than inflation.

The root of the problem is an illustration of the gloomy saying that ‘no good deed goes unpunished’ . In a generous constitutional change, Brazil’s first universal, non-contributory pension was established in 1988 . At that time life expectancy was just 64 years in Brazil, so the retirement age was set low: women may retire as early as 50 and men by 55 . But now the average Brazilian retires about a decade younger than the OECD average, at age 58 .

Figure 1 and 2, Brazil 2020 and 2050. Source: PopulationPyramid.net

Meanwhile, with the country’s rising wealth and health, life expectancy has spread out to 75 years . Instead of paying out for the last six years of a person’s life, pensions must now pay out for 17 years . Those who retired before 2000 are paid their full, final salary until

RECENT CASES AND PERSPECTIVES ON POPULATION AGEING

Alan Gamlen, Associate Professor of Geography, Monash University

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death. Disgraced Senator Romero Juca, fired from government for corruption, is still entitled to a pension of US$6,200 per month, 20 times that of the average Brazilian pensioner . The pension bill now gobbles up over half of the federal budget and sits at 12% of GDP . And the size of the elderly population (aged 65+) is set to grow from around 17 million today, to around 58 million in 2060 .

The existing low pension age is predictably popular with Brazilians, so raising it is politically difficult, and would require a constitutional change backed by a 60% majority in both houses of the congress . At Carnivals in Brasilia and Rio in 2018, dancers were boogying to the chant “don’t go touching our pensions”, and in Rio they were performing a samba called “Those who have worked their entire lives deserve more respect” . Successive scandal-mired governments have failed to achieve such support, and it is not clear that the current one, led by populist president Bolsinaro, has the votes to succeed either .The case of Brazil shows that population ageing is a major issue facing not only the old, rich world, but also the emerging world that everyone was so optimistic about only a few years ago . How widespread is this issue? It turns out, Brazil is certainly not alone .

China’s demographic timebombAnother BRICs economy, China, is now facing a version of the same problem . China is the world’s most populous country, and has faced Malthusian pressures throughout its long history as a result of scarce arable land . Some claim that the renowned diversity of China’s cooking is a result of periodic famines in which it was necessary to eat absolutely everything . In the late modern period, under the Chinese Communist Partly, China’s famous one child policy helped accelerate demographic transition, creating a decades-long surplus of working people over dependent youths and elderly, and yielding the huge demographic dividend that helps explain the country’s 30-year economic growth miracle .

But China is ageing fast . By 2030, 23 million Chinese people will have dementia: almost the entire population of Australia . But the country’s pension system, such as it is, cannot cope . By 2016, there was a shortfall of 429 .1 billion yuan between worker’s pension contributions and the benefits paid out, which came to 2.58 trillion yuan (US$409 .4 billion) . By 2018 the shortfall reached 600 billion yuan, and by 2020 it is expected to hit 890 billion yuan .

Figure 3 and 4, China 2020 and 2050. Source: PopulationPyramid.net

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Vietnam: Getting old before getting richThe same thing is happening across Asia . Malaysia is growing old more rapidly than the rest of the world, and the problem is particularly acute in Vietnam, which is not only ageing faster than the global average, but also still remains far poorer . It may grow old long before it grows rich .

Figure 5 and 6, Vietnam 2020 and 2050. Source: PopulationPyramid.net

Vietnam is already past the height of its ‘demographic dividend’: the period during which a past baby boom reaches adulthood, creating a high proportion of working-aged people compared to numbers of dependent youths and elderly folk . In Vietnam, the surplus of workers

came in 2013, when GDP per capita sat at just $5,024 . Comparison with regional neighbours paints a bleak picture . When South Korea and Japan had their peak working-aged populations, their national incomes had reached $32,585 and $31,718 respectively . Even China, despite its massive size, reached GDP per capita of $9,526 at the same demographic stage as Vietnam in 2013 .

We often consider ageing to be a challenge for cities in rich, urbanised countries, but in low-income Vietnam the problem is worse in the rural areas where most of the elderly remain . Changing social norms mean that young people move to cities for work, instead of remaining to care for elderly parents . Many old people live alone, and work until death . Some 40% of rural men are still working at age 75, often in backbreaking manual laboring jobs . The government has relaxed its official family-size goal and made efforts to raise the retirement age and expand the size of the population covered by pension payments . But the problem is structural . Vietnam does not seem to have gone through the classic demographic transition model where rapid industrialization, socio-economic development, and ageing all go hand in hand: it is becoming old before becoming rich .

So, there is a demographic timebomb ticking not just in the BRICs, but in other emerging economies, and we cannot rely on ageing and economic development to simply go hand in hand . What are governments doing to meet the challenge?

The Japanese ’model’?Japan was long thought to be a cautionary tale regarding population ageing . But interestingly, quite a few countries are now looking to Japan, attempting to adopt and adapt models and best practices that have evolved during the country’s decades of experience of managing ageing . The Japanese and Chinese governments, for example, have identified elderly care as a potential issue for cooperation . China is already at the stage of ageing that Japan reached in 1987, with well over 10% of its citizens now in the over-65 aged bracket .

Japan’s largest operator of dementia care homes is moving into China, having opened half a dozen new facilities in past few years . As joint ventures with Chinese state-owned care homes, they adopt Japanese aged-care practices, like customised care plans for each resident aimed at encouraging activity, exercise, ping pong, appreciating fine food, socializing, chatting, and reawakening the playful side of those suffering from dementia . Thailand, which introduced a full-scale pension scheme in 2014, has also modelled its system on Japan’s, with its detailed and customized care plans .

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Figure 7 and 8, Japan 2020 and 2050. Source: PopulationPyramid.net

Summary: The BRICs are ageing – what should we do?Ageing is causing pension crises not only in the old, rich world, but in the emerging economies like Brazil and China and across much of Asia . Ageing in these contexts is not always going hand in hand with rapid industrialization and development as predicted by the classic demographic transition model . More and more countries are looking to Japan as a ‘model’ of how to cope with ageing at a practical level in terms of aged care . But the underlying pension crises are bigger, more structural problems . A lot of the world economy is bound up in pension funds that, because their pensioners are

living longer than initially expected, cannot afford to pay out as generously as they are contractually bound to do . How these massive funds perform will have a big impact on our collective future .

References

Student activities1 . Define the following terms:

a . Ageing population

b . Dependency ratio

c . Emerging economy

d . Demographic dividend

2 . Refer to the population pyramids for Brazil and China for 2020 and 2050 .

a . Describe the changes that are predicted to occur in the age-gender pyramids of these countries between 2020 and 2050 .

b . Calculate the dependency ratios for Brazil and China in 2020 and 2050 .

c . Explain why an ageing population is described as a ‘demographic winter’ .

d . Compare and contrast the reasons for the ageing population of Brazil and China .

3 . Outline the social and economic problems that Vietnam faces as a result of growing old before it grows rich .

4 . Explain why it is challenging for countries to raise the retirement age .

5 . An ageing population can bring economic benefits to a country as well as economic problems . Create a mind map to show the possible economic benefits that may arise from an ageing population .

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The Economist 2018, Destitute dotage: Vietnam is getting old before it gets rich, 8 Nov .

O’Neill, J ., 2001 . Building Better Global Economic BRICS . Global Economics Paper No: 66 . Goldman Sachs .

Sometaya, R, 2017 . Thailand starts Japanese-style caregiving for the elderly . Available: http://www .asahi .com/ajw/articles/AJ201712010007 .html . Last accessed 21 May 2019 .

The Economist, 2017. Reducing Brazil’s pension burden . Available: https://www .economist .com/the-americas/2017/02/25/reducing-brazils-pension-burden . Last accessed 21 May 2019 .

Trading Economics, 2019 . Brazil Population . Available: https://tradingeconomics .com/brazil/population . Last accessed 21 May 2019 .

Rapoza, K, 2019 . Brazil’s Social Security Reform Way Bigger Deal Than Bolsonaro’s Privatization Plans . Available: https://www .forbes .com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/02/06/brazils-social-security-reform-way-bigger-deal-than-bolsonaros-privatization-plans/#9da39b632239 . Last accessed 21 May 2019 .

The World Bank, 2019 . Overview . Available: https://www .worldbank .org/en/country/brazil/overview . Last accessed 21 May 2019 .

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Cities are dynamic and you may recognise changes in a city near you . Some of these changes may include development of new housing or industrial estates at the edge of the city, demolition of old factories and houses near the city centre, gentrification of old workers’ housing by higher-income groups and changes in the culture of an area as a result of migration . Geographers have recognised that many cities show similar changes in the movement of people and economic activity that shape the economic and social character of neighbourhoods and affect the ecological sustainability of the city . These changes have been termed ‘urban dynamics’ and are influenced by:

• Political factors e .g . government policy

• Economic factors e .g . changing costs of land

• Social and cultural factors e .g . ethnic tensions

• Environmental factors e .g . availability of open space

This article examines the causes and effects of urban dynamics in New York City (NYC), North-east USA, (40 .7oN 74 .0oW), a large city in the developed world .

New York CityNYC was established as a trading settlement in the 17th century at the southern end of Manhattan where the Hudson River flows into the Atlantic Ocean . As a strategic route centre and important port, the city developed as a centre of manufacturing industry . During the 19th century, the population grew rapidly and the settlement expanded into adjacent counties; in 1898, these counties became the 5 boroughs (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx and Staten Island) of NYC today (see Figure 1) . Over time the function of NYC has changed and today this world city is a major financial centre with a population over 8 .6 million (Figure 2) .

Figure 1: The boroughs of New York City.

Figure 2: Population growth of NYC 1698 - 2017. Created by author using data from (Demographia, 2001) and (City Population, 2018)

Changing economic characterDuring the 19th century, the main manufacturing industries were sugar refining, printing/publishing and garments . Raw materials were imported, processed, and the finished goods exported or transported to the growing national market . As water transport was the main method of transport, factories and their workers were concentrated along the waterfront close to the port in Lower Manhattan .

The economic character of Lower and Midtown Man-hattan began to change from manufacturing to services during the first half of the twentieth century as many factories relocated from the CBD to the outer areas of the city in north Manhattan and the other boroughs (a process known as suburbanisation) . Lower and Midtown

URBAN DYNAMICS IN NEW YORK – A LARGE CITY IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD

Anne Holland, Editor, Geodate

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Manhattan became the world’s major centre of finance (with Wall Street as the centre) and an information hub attracting TNCs, NGOs and IGOs, including the United Nations headquarters completed in 1952 . Suburbanisation of manufacturing industry was due to the following factors:

• Factories needed more ground space as the scale of production increased and methods of production changed . Towards the edge of the city there was more space available and the cost of land was lower .

• The advantages of a waterfront location declined as a network of railways and bridges reduced the reliance on water transport . In 1904, the subway system was one of the most extensive in the world .

• Wage costs were lower away from the CBD as workers were less organised in labour unions .

• Zoning regulations in Lower Manhattan favoured the location of offices and headquarters over the building of factories .

The main exceptions to this process of suburbanisation were the garment and printing/publishing industries that did not experience changes in methods of production and relied on a local supply of skilled labour in Lower and Midtown Manhattan .

Since the mid-twentieth century there has also been economic restructuring across the whole of NYC as competition from manufacturing overseas contributed to a substantial decline in the manufacturing sector .

Social StructureThe increase in employment opportunities in the suburbs, attracted workers who moved to live close to their jobs . The suburbs also provided greater opportunity for people to build their own homes as building regulations were lax, there was more space and land was cheaper .

As the city area grew, a pattern of residential segregation arose that changed over time . Until the late 19th century, only the wealthy could afford to live in the suburbs . Lower income groups (including many new immigrants) tended to remain in Lower Manhattan where costs of living were lower, and women (whose wages were a significant contribution to household income) had easy access to employment in the garment factories . During the early twentieth century, lower income groups were also able to move to the suburbs, as real wages rose, transport costs fell and house prices crashed following speculative building, particularly in the Bronx, Queens and northeast Manhattan . As a result, the social

structure of the suburbs changed and, as the suburbs grew rapidly, congestion increased .

With the changing nature of the suburbs, many wealthier professionals chose to return to Lower and Midtown Manhattan (in particular Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Greenwich Village) where they could be closer to their work in the CBD, and the cultural attractions of the area . These neighbourhoods underwent a change in social structure as gentrification of working class houses and the building of luxury apartments (some converted from old office buildings) increased housing for upper income residents but reduced the housing available to lower-income groups; these areas are now some of the most affluent in NYC .

Some wealthier residents also chose to move to smaller settlements along the Hudson Valley where problems of urban decay, ethnic tension, crime, traffic congestion, and air, noise and waste pollution were less severe than in NYC . Developments in communication and information technology enabled residents to live and work in these smaller settlements (counter urbanisation) or to live in the smaller settlements but commute to work in NYC (exurbanisation) . Between 1940 and 1990, relocation of people beyond the city boundaries resulted in a fall in the total population of NYC (Figure 2) .

Today, nearly 30% of NYC’s workforce lives outside the city and commutes into the city to work . However, as energy prices have risen, this option is less desirable and the trend towards labour force recentralisation has contributed to the growth in population of NYC; an increase of 500 000 people since 2010 (The City of New York, 2018) .

In addition to the residential segregation by income, there was also a clear residential segregation by ethnic origin to form urban villages . Many new immigrants chose to live in ethnic ghettoes where there was familiarity of local culture e .g . Italians in Little Italy and Jews in Lower East Side, Manhattan . Discrimination of Black Households in many areas of Manhattan was also a factor contributing to this residential segregation in NYC .

East Harlem – an area of disadvantageAreas of advantage and disadvantage have developed within NYC as a consequence of residential segregation and economic change . This inequality is nowhere more striking than between the neighbourhoods of Upper East Side and East Harlem in Manhattan (see Table 1) .

“East 96th Street may be the most sharply defined border between poverty and affluence, urban misery and urban elegance, to be found anywhere in New York .” (Glazer, 1991)

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Upper East Side

East Harlem

NYC

Median household income US$ 20161,2,3

1192611 350972 58,8603

Poverty rate%20183

73 233 203

Unemployment % 20184

44 114 94

Serious crime rate (per 1,000 residents)20171,2,3

8 .61 15 .42 11 .43

Infant mortality (per 1000)4

0 .84 5 .94 4 .44

No access to a primary health care provider % population 2006

185 296 245

Table 1: Socioeconomic indicators for Upper East Side, East Harlem and NYC Source of data: 1 (NYU Furman Center, 2019)

2 (NYU Furman Center, 2019)

3 (NYU Furman Center, 2017)

4 (NYC Health, 2018) 5 (New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 2006) 6 (New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 2006)

Throughout the twentieth century, urban decay, the limited success of urban renewal programmes and the negative impacts of economic restructuring have contributed to a spiral of decline and disadvantage for residents in East Harlem . The crash of property prices in the early twentieth century resulted in a significant decline in the quality of the housing stock as many landlords failed to maintain their properties . Landlords also became willing to rent to Black households, who faced discrimination in many other areas of Manhattan; however, as Black households were charged a higher rent than other racial groups, many properties became sublet and overcrowded . This decay of the urban environment became the subject of a government urban renewal programme throughout the 1940s and 1960s . Slum housing was cleared and replaced by public housing ‘superblocks’ that continue to dominate the neighbourhood today (Figure 3) . Although the superblocks were of lower density at ground level, let more light and air into properties and allowed the development of parks, they did little to improve levels of disadvantage; community services and places of employment were demolished, communities were broken up, the narrow, dark pedestrian underpasses were dangerous and areas of derelict land were unsightly .

Figure 3: Aerial view of Harlem, New York City Residents who were able to escape the poverty and crime of the neighbourhood moved away, leaving behind those who were the poorest, least skilled and with the fewest opportunities for success . Between 1950 and 1999, the population of East Harlem declined and the area became unattractive to new investment . In the 1970s, East Harlem was also subject to a government policy of planned shrinkage where services were withdrawn as tax revenue declined . This had a negative multiplier effect on the area . In 1981, the Washburn Wire Company, one of the largest single industrial employers in Manhattan, closed causing further economic decline . 60% of the area’s economic life became dependent on cash flow from the illegal “Numbers” lottery (Cook, 1971) . In 1990, despite the programme of urban renewal, 14 percent of the housing stock was rated poor and more than 12 percent of the buildings had five or more structural problems (Aiolova) . Many buildings had been abandoned by landlords and the poor maintenance of properties increased the risk of residents suffering from respiratory illnesses, injuries and poor mental health .

Since 2000, urban renewal within East Harlem has focused on small-scale community projects aimed at gentrification, and improving the appearance and sustainability of the environment . The results of this bottom-up approach have not only contributed to the growth of business and population in the neighbourhood but, as the housing stock has improved, higher-income residents have been attracted to the area . However, air pollution with higher than average levels of fine particulate matter (PM2 .5) and ozone continues to have negative impacts on the health of residents .

Ecological SustainabilityThe natural environment of a city provides goods and services essential for the wellbeing and economic development of its residents . However, as a city grows, the increase in traffic, waste and energy use, and removal of vegetation for the construction of roads and

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buildings have negative impacts on this natural capital . Many cities now recognise the need for the sustainability of natural systems and their resources to maintain the quality of life of residents .

In 2015, NYC published the OneNYC plan (The City of New York, 2018) to become the most resilient, equitable and sustainable city in the world . Although the state of New York had the smallest ecological footprint of any state in the USA, it was approximately twice the global average of 2 .6 global hectares per person (Short, 2015) .

The environmental aims of OneNYC include:• reducing GHG emissions through changes in

transport, solid waste disposal and energy efficiency in buildings .

• reducing waste through the recycling of organic waste, reducing non-compostable waste, developing single stream recycling and expanding the market for reuse and recycling of materials .

• reducing air pollution through improvements in the energy efficiency of buildings, and the use of cleaner and/or renewable fuels in power stations, buildings and transport .

• reducing use of water by retrofitting buildings with water-saving technology and reducing water pollution by managing stormwater runoff and waste water collection .

• cleaning up brownfield sites to improve community health and encourage economic investment; the NYC Voluntary Cleanup Program and the NYC Clean Soil Bank (an urban soil exchange system that replaces contaminated soil with clean soil excavated during construction) are two programs put in place .

• greening the city’s streets, parks and open spaces by planting vegetation; this green infrastructure not only improves the appearance of the city but it also assists in improving air quality and reducing polluted storm runoff reaching water bodies .

Many of these aims are interrelated e .g . reducing solid waste assists in reducing GHG emissions and improving air pollution .

By 2016, GHG emissions per capita in NYC (5 .8 (tCO2e) per capita) were 15% lower than in 2005, and significantly lower than the USA average of 17(tCO2e) per capita (LLC, Pasion, Amar, & Zhou, 2016) . Air quality was the cleanest for 50 years (The City of New York , 2018) with significant reductions in the major air pollutants as shown in Table 2 . However, in 2017, NYC ranked as the 9th most smog-choked city in the USA (Schlanger, 2017) . Air quality continues to be a leading environmental health threat, particularly in neighbourhoods such as East Harlem where the density of building and traffic is high.

% decrease 2009-2016

Fine particulate matter PM2 .5 28Nitrogen dioxide 27Nitrogen oxide 35Sulphur dioxide 12Black carbon 24

Table 2: Average % annual decrease in air pollutants in NYC, 2009-2016. Source: (City of New York, 2018), (Durkin, 2017)

Water quality in New York harbour has improved through the use of traditional and green infrastructure to control water runoff . 40,000 oysters have also been introduced into Jamaica Bay to filter pollutants, provide habitats and provide the shoreline with protection from erosion (The City of New York, 2018) .

Up to 2018, 756 Brownfield sites had been cleaned, removing environmental toxins, benefitting local businesses and allowing construction of affordable housing . This has been particularly important in areas of disadvantage, such as East Harlem, where a large proportion of the Brownfield sites occur (The City of New York, 2018) .

SummaryAs NYC has developed from its origins in the 17th century to its current status as a World City of over 8 million people, urban dynamics have influenced the economic and social structure of its neighbourhoods, shaped the culture of place, and impacted on the ecological sustainability of the city and wellbeing of its residents . These changes have arisen largely as a result of human factors but it is perhaps the impact of climate change on the city that will be a key determinant of the morphology and spatial characteristics of the city in the future .

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ReferencesWikipedia . (2019, April 3) . East Harlem . Retrieved April 5, 2019, from https://commons .wikimedia .org/wiki/File:Eastharlem01 .jpg

Aiolova, M . (n .d .) . East ‘Spanish’ Harlem, Chinatown, Hell’s Kitchen South – Throwing a Wrench in the Gentrification Wheel of Manhattan. . Retrieved March 20, 2019, from http://www.aiolova.com/Gentrification_Paper.pdf

City of New York . (2018, April 19) . New York City’s Air is Cleaner Than It Has Ever Been Since Monitoring Began . Retrieved March 26, 2019, from https://www1 .nyc .gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/204-18/new-york-city-s-air-cleaner-it-has-ever-been-since-monitoring-began .

City Population . (2018, March 22) . USA: New York City Boroughs . Retrieved March 19, 2019, from https://www .citypopulation .de/php/usa-newyorkcity .php

Cook, F . J . (1971, April 4) . The Black Mafia Moves Into the Numbers Racket . Retrieved March 25, 2019, from https://www .nytimes .com/1971/04/04/archives/the-black-mafia-moves-into-the-numbers-racket-the-numbers-racket .html

Durkin, E . (2017, April 20) . EXCLUSIVE: New York City air pollution at all-time low, data reveals . Retrieved March 26, 2019, from https://www .nydailynews .com/new-york/new-york-city-air-pollution-all-time-data-reveals-article-1 .3077440

Demographia . (2001) . City of New York & Boroughs: Population & Population Density from 1790 . Retrieved March 20, 2019, from http://www .demographia .com/dm-nyc .htm

Glazer, N . (1991) . Letter from East Harlem . Retrieved March 24, 2019, from https://www .city-journal .org/html/letter-east-harlem-12740 .html

LLC, C ., Pasion, C ., Amar, M ., & Zhou, Y . (2016, April) . Inventory of New York City Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2014. Retrieved March 27, 2019, from https://www1 .nyc .gov/assets/sustainability/downloads/pdf/publications/NYC_GHG_Inventory_2014.pdf

NYU Furman Center . (2019) . MN08: Upper East Side . Retrieved March 25, 2019, from New York City Neighbourhood Data Profiles: http://furmancenter.org/neighborhoods/view/upper-east-side

NYU Furman Center . (2019) . MN11: East Harlem . Retrieved March 23, 2019, from New York City

Student activities1 . Define the following urban dynamics:

a . Suburbanisation

b . Exurbanisation

c . Counter urbanisation

d . Urban decay

e . Urban renewal

f . Urban village

2 . Complete the table below to identify the political, economic, social and cultural and environmental factors influencing the urban dynamics operating in New York City .

Urban Dynamic Factors influencing the urban dynamic

SuburbanisationCounter urbanisationExurbanisationUrban DecayUrban RenewalUrban Village

3 . a. Construct a flow diagram to show the spiral of decline that occurred in East Harlem throughout the twentieth century .

b . Access the website https://nickconwayblog .wordpress .com/2017/08/08/inequality-in-new-york-city-neighborhoods-1990-2015/ Describe the changing spatial pattern of inequality in Manhattan 1990-2015

4 . Refer to Table 1 comparing socio-economic data for the neighbourhoods of East Harlem and Upper East Side in Manhattan .

a . Access the website http://www .city-data .com/nbmaps/neigh-New-York-New-York .html to obtain additional data on the socio-economic profile of East Harlem and Upper East Side .

b . Outline the impact of social and economic disadvantage on the quality of life of residents living in East Harlem .

5 . Research the following aspects of East Harlem’s culture of place: architecture, streetscape, heritage architecture, noise, colour, street life, energy, vitality and lifestyles . Present your ideas in a series of annotated images .

6 . Construct a futures wheel to illustrate the advantages of green infrastructure for urban ecological sustainability .

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Neighbourhood Data Profiles: http://furmancenter.org/neighborhoods/view/east-harlem

NYU Furman Center . (2017) . State of New York City’s Housing and Neighbourhoods in 2017. Retrieved March 25, 2019, from http://furmancenter.org/files/sotc/SOC_2017_PART2_New_York_City.pdf

NYC Environmental Protection . (2019) . NYC Green Infrastructure Program . Retrieved April 5, 2019, from https://www1.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/stormwater/using_green_infra_to_manage_stormwater.shtml

NYC Health . (2018) . East Harlem Including East Harlem, Randalls Island and Wards Island. Retrieved March 25, 2019, from Community Health Profiles 2018: https://www1 .nyc .gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/data/2018chp-mn11 .pdf

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene . (2006) . Upper East Side Manhattan. Retrieved March 25, 2019, from Community Health Profiles : https://www1 .nyc .gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/data/2006chp-305 .pdf

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene . (2006) . East Harlem Manhattan. Retrieved March 25, 2019, from Community Health Profiles: https://www1 .nyc .gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/data/2006chp-303 .pdf

Schlanger, Z . (2017, December 29) . Some of New York’s pollution belongs to Virginia and Michigan . Retrieved March 27, 2019, from https://qz .com/1167560/new-york-is-suing-rust-belt-states-for-air-pollution-that-blew-east/

Short, J . R . (2015, March 13) . How green is your city: towards an index of urban sustainability . Retrieved March 27, 2019, from The Conversation: http://theconversation .com/how-green-is-your-city-towards-an-index-of-urban-sustainability-38402

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