geog 1900: extreme weather and climate. review of last lecture atmosphere: a mixture of gas...
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Geog 1900: Extreme Weather and Climate
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Review of last lecture• Atmosphere: A mixture of gas molecules,
microscopically small particles of solid and liquid, and falling precipitation
• Meteorology: The study of the atmosphere and the processes that form weather
• Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place
• Climate: The statistical properties of the atmosphere. (i.e. averages and variability)
• Weather- and climate-related disasters: tropical cyclones, tornados, floods, droughts, winter storms, extreme heat, extreme cold, lightning, El Nino, global warming
• Impacts of weather/climate on public health, transportation, agriculture, business, international relationships, history, science, philosophy, education, …
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Atmospheric Sciences at a Glance (2)
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The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been
growing very fast!
Carl-Gustaf Rossby (1898-1957) Generally considered as the “father of modern meteorology”. Founder of the “Chicago School of Meteorology”.
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Observing the atmosphere: Surface weather stations
1875 (~100)
1975 (>1700)
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Observing the atmosphere: Surface weather stations
Now
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Observing the atmosphere: Upper-air sounding stations
Now (>1000)
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Observing the atmosphere: Weather Radar
First weather radar (NOAA NSSL)
Current NEXRAD Doppler radar (NOAA NWS)
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Observing the atmosphere: Shipborne radar
From Mapes and Lin (2005)
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Observing the atmosphere: Aircraft
NOAA P3
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Video clip: Flying into hurricanes
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAyfHqEW3gk
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TIROS-1 (1960) World’s first weather satellite
Observing the atmosphere: Satellite
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NASA’s Earth Observation System
A-Train Satellites
Observing the atmosphere: Satellite
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Observing the atmosphere: Proxy data(e.g. coral reef, tree ring, lake sediment, ice
core)
Coral reef Tree ring
Lake sediment Ice core
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Climate Modeling on World’s Fastest Supercomputers
Japan’s Earth Simulator (World’s #1 in 2004, #20 now)
OSC’s new IBM machine among world’s top 100
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World’s Major Global Climate Models
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The current status of weather and climate predictions
• Weather prediction: Generally good within one week, not good beyond 10 days. The skill depends on season and location.
• Tropical cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) prediction: good in track, but bad in intensity
• Climate prediction: Seasonal prediction generally good within 6 months, but not good beyond. Skill depends on season.
• Climate projection: All models project global warming in the 21st century, but with a 3-fold difference in magnitude.
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Why is it so difficult to understand and predict weather
and climate?
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Summary• The modern climatology (meteorology) was born
in the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been growing very fast! Now we have a global observational network with many satellites, ships, radars and surface stations, as well as very comprehensive prediction models running on the world’s fastest supercomputers.
• The current status of weather and climate predictions: (1) weather prediction good to 10 days, (2) tropical cyclone prediction good in track but not in intensity, (3) climate prediction good to two seasons, (4) climate change projections have a 3-fold difference in magnitude.