Maltman's GeographicGeography: past, present, future. Volume 1

Is Italy ready?

his reporter has reviewed concerns re‐

garding Italy's disaster relief plans and

uncovered worrying concerns it might

fall short in the event of an eruption.

"Put simply, we do not know which generation will pay the price"

Member of the Green Party, Francesco

Emilio Borrelli was quoted in he Tele‐

graph [September, 2013] querying

whether the civil protection agency had

adequately planned for a major eruption.

According to the 2011 plan, how many people could be affected?

here are 550,000 people, living in 19

towns surrounding Mount Vesuvius cov‐

ered by the present plans, extending over

200 square kilometres. he current

emergency plan is based on an eruption

similar to the one in 1631. While this

was a serious eruption, it was nowhere

near as serious as the catastrophic erup‐

tion that destroyed Pompeii and Hercu‐

laneum in 79 AD. his reporter has un‐

covered further evidence that a future

eruption could eclipse that of 79 AD and

more likely resemble a recently docu‐

mented eruption of 1780 BC, which

reached Naples. here are 3 million peo‐

ple living in Naples.

Recently scientists have said the next

eruption could kill more people than

any other volcano in history.

Mount Vesuvius towers more than 4000

feet over the city of Naples. A volcanic

eruption similar to that of 1780 BC

would see a cloud of debris hurtling

down the side of the volcano at more

than 450 mph. hat's faster than a For‐

mula 1 racing car! Anyone within 10

miles of the crater would be caught in

the death zone. he cloud would move

across the bay towards Naples, picking

up speed as it went, with temperatures of

300-400 C, more than enough to boil the

blood in your body.

Volcanologists had always assumed an

eruption would not reach Naples.

However recent research from Angevin

Castle, from 1780 BC shows a deposit

was found right in the centre of Naples.

his deposit is 4 feet thick. he layer is

an accumulation of ash from the Bronze

Age. It travelled 10 miles across the bay.

his has changed the way we think about

Vesuvius and the size of a potential erup‐

tion.

In 1780 BC it is estimated 63 billion cu‐

bic feet of rock fell on the surrounding

area. hat's enough to cover the entire is‐

land of Manhattan with 100 feet thick in

ash or cover the entire city of London

(ive times the size of Manhattan) in 20

feet of ash. his eruption should be the

blueprint for the worst-case scenario,

certainly not 1631 or 79AD. A cloud like

this over Naples could cause millions of

deaths.

Mount Vesuvius needs to be under

constant surveillance. It is now the

most closely monitored volcano on

earth.

Lack of current activity is not necessarily

a reassuring sign. Researchers have not‐

ed where Vesuvius is concerned, you

have a time of quietness and then a large

eruption, and then again, more quietness

and then an eruption (see Eruption

Timeline). he longer it stays quiet, the

more magma is allowed to accumulate,

and therefore more power if it does

erupt.

New scientiic techniques prove there is a huge magma pool under the volcano.

In 2001 scientists revealed that there is a

huge magma ield under Vesuvius. hey

used sound waves and various explosive

detonations to investigate. hey discov‐

ered by measuring the sound waves they

could map a ghostly and terrifying

shape. he chamber is so wide it stretch‐

es well beyond the mile wide base of

Mount Vesuvius: 250 square miles, half

the size of New York.

Dr Nick Pet ford (Univers ity of

Bournemouth) says, "for an eruption to

happen volcanoes need two things: they

need a source of magma near the surface

and they need a trigger." So as we can

see, Vesuvius already has a huge pool of

magma, but what about a trigger?

It appears no-one knows for sure what

might trigger an eruption. However,

looking at earthquake activity alongside

eruptions, a pattern emerges, according

to Dr Petford, "Mount Vesuvius is so well

documented which is why we can see a

good pattern over the last 400 years". A

statistical link has been found between

earthquake activity and Vesuvius' erup‐

tions. However, it seems from 2008 re‐

search there is also a theory that the

huge size of the magma reservoir has

meant it has been migrating towards the

surface, which may mean a milder erup‐

tion.

he idea that earthquakes cause erup‐

tions is hotly debated by scientists. Dar‐

win irst proposed this theory (Chile

1835). He experienced an earthquake

and then a few days later observed there

was a volcano eruption. Scientists believe

the next major eruption of Vesuvius may

be triggered by an earthquake, by the

shockwaves squeezing the magma cham‐

ber. he effect of an earthquake on the

magma chamber could be delayed, it

may take days, months or even years.

he pressure waves may take a long

while and it may take many earthquakes

to push Vesuvius to a critical eruption.

Dr Petford states: "it is a geological cer‐

tainty that Naples will one day fall foul to

Mount Vesuvius."

If earthquakes are the trigger for Vesuvius, it's possible the eruption has already started.

Since the beginning of this century, two

massive earthquakes have sent shock‐

waves racing around the ground near to

Vesuvius. he irst one in 2002 at San

Guiliano di Puglia , 40 miles north east

of Vesuvius was a 5.4 tremor where 34

died and thousands were evacuated. In

2009 at L'Aqulia, 60 miles north of Vesu‐

vius, with a magnitude 6.3 killed more

than 300 people. hese earthquakes may

have already shaken Vesuvius' huge mag‐

ma chamber. Dr Petford says, "historical

patterns suggest the trigger may already

have been pulled."

"Scientists and civil authorities cannot

agree on how to prepare for a future

eruption." Nature.com, 2011

Vesuvius: has the fuse already been lit?

2 Geogrpahy Project, Lara Fox-Hill 4M

In 79 AD, in just 24 hours two cities in

the Bay of Naples in the South of Italy

were buried by a catastrophic eruption of

Mount Vesuvius.

he morning probably started like any

other day in March for those living Pom‐

peii and Herculaneum. By all accounts,

Pompeii and Herculanuem were ordi‐

nary Roman cities. hey were very dif‐

ferent from each other though. Pompeii

was the larger city and commercial cen‐

tre, with an estimated population of

12,000 - 15,000 inhabitants. Hercula‐

neum inhabitants were more in the re‐

gion of 4,000 - 5,000. here were baths,

theatres, temples and markets, a large va‐

riety of dwellings, from luxury homes to

small houses and workshops. he two

cities were bustling with modern Roman

life.

For Romans living around the Bay of

Naples, Vesuvius was considered as just a

fertile mountain. Although Vesuvius had

been active in the 8th century BC, it had

been dormant ever since, leaving the

people of the cities with a false sense of

security.

For several days before the eruption

there had been earth tremors affecting

the surrounding area. We know about

what happened as the volcano erupted

from the eyewitness account of Pliny the

Younger. He watched from his mother's

house at the top of the Bay of Naples, at

Cape Misenum. He wrote two letters in

which he told of the events of the day

and their effects.

At lunchtime, ater several small explo‐

sions, Vesuvius erupted creating a tall

mushroom cloud, sending rocks and gas

over 20 kilometers into the sky. he

cloud blew southwards, plunging every‐

thing into total darkness.

Pliny wrote:

"...about One in the aternoon a cloud

was ascending, the appearance of which

I can give you a more exact description

of than by likening it to that, of a pine

tree, for it shot up to a great height to a

form of a very tall trunk, which spread

itself out at the top into a sort of branch‐

es; occasioned, I imagine, either by a

sudden gust of air that impelled it, the

force of which decreased as it advanced

upwards or the cloud itself being pressed

back again by its own weight, expanded

in the manner I have mentioned; it ap‐

peared sometimes bright and sometimes

dark and spotted, according as it was ei‐

ther more or less impregnated and earth

and cinders."

Twelve hours ater the eruption Vesuvius

was still gushing tons of debris. Pliny's

observations at this point included

something odd: a huge swathe of debris

that broke away from the main column,

formed a landslide and covered Pompeii.

Researchers dismissed this observation

until 1980, when Washington State's

Mount St. Helen's erupted producing a

storm of scorching hot ash and debris.

he event was captured on ilm and

shows a massive avalanche, called a pyro‐

clastic current, sliding down from the

volcano.

Volcanologists believe that what hap‐

pened in North America, explained what

happened in Italy 2, 000 years ago. But

the Vesuvius avalanche was much bigger

and there were many more of them,

probably about 6 in all. he irst

avalanche did not reach Pompeii, so peo‐

ple were able to lee. hey returned later

to collect valuables, thinking the worst

was over. It was a terrible mistake. When

the worst pyroclastic wave reached both

cities, no-one could escape its path and

Pompeii and Herculaneum were buried.

Areas surrounding Vesuvius have been inhabited for 2000+ years, so there's much information concerning eruptions. Best known is the eruption destroying Pompeii and

Herculaneum (79 AD). here were also large eruptions in 1631 and 1944. Recent excavations show a much larger eruption in 1780 BC (Bronze Age) reaching the heart of Naples.

Eruption Timeline

People died where they lay

Pompeii and Herculaneum, 79 AD

Eruptions over time

3Geogrpahy Project, Lara Fox-Hill 4M

Ray Small, 1944

As with all things, seeing is believing.

While Pliny the Younger provided a

marvellous account of what it was like

that day in March 79AD, we have other

records now of when Vesuvius has erupt‐

ed.

Ray Small, a wireless operator stationed

at the Royal Palace at Caserta (Allied

Forces Headquarters in Italy), wrote a

gripping letter home to his parents about

the eruption in 1944 (March 18th -

23rd).

"One aternoon, when Jeff and I were

out for a walk, we noticed a greater

amount of smoke than usual, but

thought no more about it. Ater dark,

however, we noticed a deep red glow on

the peak and could see molten lava be‐

ing thrown high into the sky and cascad‐

ing down over the sides. It was the most

amazing sight....We still didn't realise

quite what was happening until we read

the morning papers that Vesuvius had

given its most spectacular display for 15

years. It got more and more spectacular

as the days went by, and we saw mil‐

lions of tons of molten rock slithering

down the sides. he papers were saying

this was the worst eruption for over two

hundred years. Unfortunately, it was

rather misty on many days, and all we

could see was the steam and smoke from

the streams of lava, which, by the ith

day were almost down to the plain.. It

was much better at night as we could

clearly see the lava being thrown high

into the sky every few seconds, to fall

back in a great cascade on the mass al‐

ready moving down the mountain. All

we could see of the stream lower down

was the glow from burning trees and the

face of the thirty-foot wall of lava ad‐

vancing on the towns of San Sebastiano

and C e rc o l a , at 3 0 0 y ard s an

hour....Can you imagine a 10 to 30 foot

mass of molten rock slowly enguling

Wembley High Street, and when it was

over, not a stone was let in sight?"

he eruption took several days and Ray

continued to describe the eruption:

"...everyone was using some sort of head

covering - umbrellas, saucepans and

such like. We also noticed that every‐

thing was covered in what looked like

rust-coloured snow......Imagine our sur‐

prise when we were stung by millions of

minute particles of rock. hey were

small, but they stung, and were thick

enough to cause a fog."

Another example of an eyewitness ac‐

count is one by Lt. Col. Sir Charles

Delme-Radliffe in 1906. He was the

British military attache to the Italian

government.

"Naples itself was covered in a layer, 6-

inches deep over everything, of a very

ine volcanic ash...and yellowish pink in

colour. It covered everything like a dirty

layer of snow.....It was as dark as in a

bad yellow London fog......he lava had

irresistibly overwhelmed everything in

its track and burnt up everything in‐

lammable. Its speed had been on the

average 10 metres a minute but in steep

places much more.....Here and there on

the surface were lying volcanic bombs

up to 3 feet in diameter".

Pliny he Younger also wrote a very im‐

portant account of the eruption in 79

AD:

"...between two and three in the ater‐

noon my mother drew[my uncle's] at‐

tention to a cloud of unusual size and

appearance."

"For being like an umbrella pine [the

mushroom cloud]....hey debated

whether to stay or take the chance in the

open."

"You could hear women shrieking, chil‐

dren screaming, men shouting. [Some]

raised their hands to the gods, but most of

them thought there were no gods at all."

Letter to Tacitus, 106 AD.

Example of a PIinian column eruption

Devastation caused by 1906 eruption

Pliny the Younger

Eruption of Mount Vesuvius, 1944

Seeing with your own eyes: eyewitness accounts

4 Geogrpahy Project, Lara Fox-Hill 4M

his reporter attended the Pompeii exhi‐

bition in Los Angeles in December 2014.

he exhibition featured over 150 pre‐

cious artifacts on loan from the Naples

National Archeological Museum in Italy.

hese artifacts give us a glimpse into the

daily life and disastrous end of this an‐

cient Roman society.

One of the most interesting parts of the

exhibit were the full body casts of Vesu‐

vius' victims. he casts capture the last

breath or position of each person,

whether they were children, adults or the

elderly (even pets). It was really quite

horrifying. he exact cause of death had

been a mystery for hundreds of years. I

learned they could not have died from

the molten lava, which burned at 1200

degrees celsius because it would have

burned up everything in its path leaving

no remains. It had been assumed for a

long time that the igures, covered in ash,

had choked to death. Recently scientists

realised suffocation would have meant

people would have, 'passed out into a re‐

laxed, unconscious state, not suspended

and in rigid poses' as many were. What

killed them, was a heat surge, so extreme

it killed instantly. he rain of ash then

preserved them ater they died.

I really enjoyed some of the other ex‐

hibits as well, particularly the beautiful

jewellry on show. I was amazed how well

it looked, looking like it was made only

yesterday. Of course, only very rich peo‐

ple would have worn jewellry like this.

here was also the most amazing

armour, probably worn by gladiators.

Gladiators were adored, just as elite ath‐

letes are today.

Cast of a Pompeiian, Pompeii exhibition

Gladiator's armour, Pompeii exhibitionGold necklace at Pompeii exhibition

Pompeii he Exhibition, Los Angeles 2014