GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY IN AFRICA

Bernard DUHAMEL Vice présidentAssociation pour le Développement de l’Énergie en Afrique

WHAT IS AFRICA? 53 Countries

6 geographical Sub regions:6 Island countries : 5 North African countries : 15 West African countries : 8 East African countries : 9 Central African countries : 10 Southern African countries :

14 Landlocked countries

WHAT IS AFRICA?Africa Demographic Evolution 1950 – 2050

1950 2000 2050 %

Total 1950

% Total 2050

World population

2 535 6 124 9 191 100 100

North Africa

44 141 237 2 3

Sub-Saharan Africa

180 680 1761 7 19

Total Africa

224 821 1998 9 22

Comments about African population growthThis strong increase is mostly due to Sub Saharan Africa

(SSA) where GDP per head is the weakest in the world ($1,946 in PPP, which is about 2/3 that of South East Asia). In that region, the demographic transition, although started, will not be achieved by 2050 and the demographic increase will continue throughout the rest of the 21st century. In 2005, 2/3 of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population were below 25 years of age.

As a whole, the population of Africa is more and more urbanised (but note that almost 75% of urban population in the SSA are slum dwellers).

Since 1950, the urban population has multiplied by a factor of 11 but despite this, urbanisation in SSA - 37% in 2005 - is still the lowest in the world. Presently, the urban population growth is due more to internal dynamism rather than to rural migration.

Corresponding urbanisation rates are 40% in Asia and 78% in Latin America.

Comments about African population growthDespite strong urban growth Africa’s rural population is

still growing; doubling between 1960 and 2000 and scheduled to continue between 2000 and 2030 to grow but 2 times less quickly. It is clear that this strong demographic growth will create significant development problems, where solutions will more often than not require an energy dimension

In order to feed Africa’s population by 2050 agricultural production in Africa will need to be multiplied by a multiple of 5.14.

Thus, nowhere will Africa’s population explosion be more felt than in the increased energy demand that it will create. If one can imagine current (unsustainable) traditional energy consumption habits of Africa’s poor, and multiple them by a factor of almost 2.5 (i.e. the population growth from 2000 to 2050), one begins to have an idea of what the implications of such growth might be.

A main feature of the 6 subregionsOverview Rate of Urban Population by Countries and Region

Number of

countries with

North Africa

West Africa

Central Africa

East Africa

Southern Africa

Island Countries

> 40% 5 7 3 1 3 4 20% <--< 40%

0 6 4 4 5 2

< 20% 0 2 2 3 2 0

Africa remains a continent characterised by relatively lower urbanisation levels, for example much of Sub-Saharan Africa has urbanisation rates of not exceeding 37%.

Impact on the electrification rate

Urban and Rural Electrification Rates in Africa

Population (Million)

Urban (Million)

Rural (Million)

Population Without

electricity

Population With

Electricity

Electrifi- cation

rate

Urban Electrif.

Rate

Rural Electrif.

Rate North Africa

143 74 69 9 134 93.7% 98.8% 87.9%

Sub Sah. Africa

688 242 446 526 162 23.5% 51.5% 8.4%

AFRICA 831 316 515 535 296 35.6% 62.4% 19.0% Source: World Energy Outlook 2004, International Energy Agency (IEA)

A main weakness: Climate change impactsUp to 250 million inhabitants – more than 2/3 of the EU’s

population - will be exposed to hydro stress,More than half of the continent (Sahel countries, Eastern

and Southern parts) will be affected by food insecurity,In terms of health-related impacts, malaria, meningitis,

cholera (as a consequence of flooding) are predicted to recur with renewed intensity,

Forests which are covering one fifth of Africa’s surface are disappearing at the highest rate in the world (5 million ha/year)

Thermal dilatation of oceans is threatening populated coastal areas, all the more as many industrial zones have been built near the shore (for example, in Senegal).

ADAPTATION ? RESILIENCE ?

ENERGY IN AFRICA

An ENERGY point of view about AFRICATHREE main regions:North Africa: 5 countriesMiddle Africa: all sub-Saharan countries, tropical

and equatorial countries, all island countriesSouth Africa: 1 country

North Africa and South Africa account for about 75% of the continent’s energy consumptionNorth Africa mainly oil and gasSouth Africa coal and oil productsMiddle Africa: ¾ of the population but ¼ of the energy

consumption

A main weakness : the very low energy consumption

The total African energy consumption is below the one of Germany.

The middle Africa energy consumption is below the one of Poland.

In sub Saharan Africa (outside South Africa) the energy consumption /year /capita is about 100 kOE, while it is 8 000 in the USA and 4 000 in OECD countries

It has to be understood as a cause and also a consequence of the weak economic development. More than 60% of African people have less than 2 $ a day. More than 60% of African people have no access to commercial energy and must use only biomass and/or fuelwood.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNSFor the great majority of Africa’s population, especially its

villages but also urban areas, low levels of access to energy meant that key basic needs such as lighting and adequate cooking facilities are not covered. The poverty of a large proportion of Africa’s population is the key reason for their intensive use of traditional energies, which while being more accessible are nonetheless more costly per unit, in particular biomass. In Africa, where all too much of urbanisation has taken the form of shanty tows around the larger cities, it has been estimated that some 30% of the urban population live below the poverty line of USD 1$ per inhabitant per day, against a corresponding 80% of Africa’s rural population.

The use of biomass also raises the question of food preparation, for which biomass is widely used in rural Africa. Biomass consumption in Africa represents one-quarter of global consumption.

Africans’ energy consumption patterns, of both traditional energies (e.g. wood cuttings and charcoal) and modern energy sources, are related to population’s revenues.

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ENERGY USES / INCOME

Basic

Ad

van

ced

THE PRIMARY SOURCES OF ENERGY IN AFRICA

OILGAS

COALBIOMASS

SOLARWIND

GEOTHERMALNUCLEAR

Energy in Africa by sources: OilDistribution of oil reserves:

Algeria Lybia Nigeria Other countrie

sOil 21% 17% 27% 35%

Energy in Africa by sources: Gas

Natural gas is abundant in North Africa (Algeria, Libya, Egypt) domestic uses + electricity production + industrial uses + Exports

It is abundant in West and central Africa mainly exports to EU and USA (Gas liquefaction plants in Nigeria, Equato Guinea …), a small electricity production and some industrial use (Ivory Coast , Nigeria)

Energy in Africa by sources: GasDistribution of natural gas reserves :

Algeria Egypt Nigeria Other countrie

sNatural

gas56 % 18,5 % 14,2 % 11,3 %

Energy in Africa by sources: coal

90 % of coal reserves are located in Southern Africa where coal is used heavily for power generation, as in Zimbabwe and to a lesser degree in Morocco and Niger where coal represents a significant part of national energy consumption (± 20%).

More than one third of Africa’s coal production is exported.

 

Energy in Africa by sources: BiomassAfrica is the world’s largest consumer of biomass

energy. It is for the most part consumed by African households, especially in rural areas (85% of household energy) and comprised primarily firewood as well as some charcoal, but also animal dung, agricultural residues ...

The consumption of “traditional” fuels is highly labour intensive, inefficient, polluting, and destructive to the environment.

A key point is the striking regional character of the biomass consumption : it accounts for some 85% of total energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 5% in North Africa and 15% in South Africa.

 

Energy in Africa by sources: Bio energy

Africa has a significant potential for expanded ethanol production and co-generation and for biofuels namely biodiesel (for instance, about half of the land in Africa could be considered suitable for Jatropha cultivation). Co-generation installations can provide the support basis for mini-networks in isolated areas, as experiments in a number of countries has shown (e.g. Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda etc). Mauritius, for example, secures 20-40% of its electricity needs through co-generation but on the whole Africa is under equipped compared to other developing countries and regions such as Latin America or India.

Energy in Africa by sources: solar energy

Promotion of photovoltaic solar power has for long been an important focus in Africa, borne partly from a long-awaited expectation of a significant decrease in its costs which to-date has not really materialised and which as led to a number of photovoltaic projects being abandoned in the meantime. On the basis of a halving of costs for every ten-fold increase in production it is hoped that a cost basis of € 2000/kWc can be reached by 2020 for the systems connected to the network - which in fact will mean that it remains a relatively expensive energy. Nonetheless, photovoltaic power can be viable in numerous cases, such as telecommunications, health centres (e.g. vaccine conservation) and daytime pumping of groundwater.

A very promising solution appears to be the thermal exploitation of the solar power, through Concentrated Solar Power systems

The DESERTEC project has been defended by German companies: it foresees implementing solar sophisticated and diversified equipment in order to cover 10% to 15% of energy needs in Europe.

Energy in Africa by sources: wind power

Windmill-generated power remains interesting for electrification projects above a certain threshold of unitary size of windmills and according to wind systems.

Windmill capacity in Africa is weak : 0.5 % of the production at the world-wide level.

With the exception of the Maghreb and Egypt few projects have been undertaken. In Morocco, the development wind farms has become more and more widespread, supported by international financing organisations.

The significant wind potential in East Africa and in the Horn of Africa should nevertheless contribute to diversifying the energy base of Eastern Africa.

Wind energy development in Africa will however need to be able to benefit from public subsidies.

Another area of development priority must be the intensified use of windmills for water pumping in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is significantly under-exploited compared with South Africa (300,000).

Energy in Africa by sources: GeothermalRegarding geothermal energy, there is

strong potential in East Africa (estimated at 9-10 GW), where the key question is to which depth exploitation should be undertaken. At shallow depth, the heat harnessed (at approx. 70° Celsius) is not sufficient to produce electricity, while deeper exploitation the steam captured (which exceeds 200° Celsius) is accompanied by toxic emissions that are difficult to treat.

Energy in Africa by sources: Nuclear EnergyThe principal producers of uranium in Africa are Niger

(8.5% of global production in 2003), Namibia (7%) and South Africa (2.5%).

South Africa’s two uranium plants produce three times more energy than from renewable energy sources such as Geothermal and solar energy.

A number of countries (Morocco, Egypt Libya, and Nigeria) have indicated their intention to develop a nuclear energy generation capacity, with the goal of desalination of sea water.

In reality, such steps would create a number of complicated problems with regard to infrastructure and human expertise, as well as with regard to adherence international non-proliferation treaties, and it is probably more realistic to consider such developments in a longer time frame.

THE ENERGY, KEY FOR DEVELOPMENT:

ELECTRICITY

The AFRICAN ELECTRICAL SECTOR

Exploitation rate of hydro potential

Europe

North America

LAC Asia Africa

75 % 60 % 33 % 22 % 5-7 %

The AFRICAN ELECTRICAL SECTORInstalled capacity(2006) :

Africa : 106,3 GW,

Sub-saharan Africa : 66,8 GW = Spain

SSA outside SAR = Argentina (30 GW).Consumption : Africa : 488 TWh

532 kWh per capita per year :

= 1/5 World

= 6 % Industrialised countries

The AFRICAN ELECTRICAL SECTOR

Consumption per capita per year:North Africa 952 kWh

West Africa 155 kWh

Central Africa 151 kWh

East Africa 65 kWh

Southern Africa 1767 kWh

Electricity consumption per capita against number of countries by region

Electricity consumption per capita against number of countries by region

Number of countries in

North Africa

West Africa

Central Africa

East Africa

Southern Africa

Island Countries

> 2 000 kWh 1 0 0 0 1 1 500 <--< 2 000 kWh 4 0 1 0 4 1 100 <--< 500 kWh 0 6 2 2 3 1 < 100 kWh 0 9 6 6 2 3

ROLE OF THE SMALL SCALE HYDROPOWERAdapted to remote rural areas and to multiple

energy/water use. Africa possesses a huge untapped potential, most notably

in Eastern and Southern Africa due to the significant land tracts that occur at high altitudes in these regions.

Small-scale hydro power comprises power units below 10 MW, with a yield of 60% to 90% and an average output of 3,500-6 000 kWh /year per installed kW. The life span is of about 50 years without big investments. Production costs depend on the hydrologic and weather systems, but in general small-scale hydro power is considered as one of the less costly options for securing sufficient rural electrification in order to develop productive activity.

Hydro power potential is known with regard to Africa’s large rivers but is generally unknown for the many smaller rivers. Yet, an increasing number of rural electrification projects are oriented towards harnessing the potential of small rivers

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ELECTRIFICATION GOALSRegarding possible electrification goals the

African Development Bank has published 2 scenarios in 2008 forecasting an almost complete electrification of Africa by 2050 (with interim milestones leading to 45% electrification by 2015 ( 31% for SSA) and 95% electrification by 2030 (94% for SSA).

 According to a World Bank analysis, SSA could

achieve a goal of 35% access to electricity by 2015 through regional exchanges of electricity. It implies that, every year, 3,000 MW will be added to the production capacity and 3 million new households will be connected to national grids, at an estimated cost 6 – 7% of SSA’s GDP.

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Poles of Hydro power in Africa

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Investing in the Africa’s Energy Sector

According to the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA) the needs of investment for all infrastructures in Africa would be about US $ 80 Billion per year.

Energy infrastructure represents half of this amount, meaning that US $ 400 Billion in ten years, half for maintenance and half for equipment, will be requested for a proper development of Africa.

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Investing in the Africa’s Energy Sector

However, according to the AfDB, the scenario of the complete electrification of Africa in 2030 will require an annual investment of US $ 23.8 Billion.

North African

Countries (5)

South Africa

(1)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Countries (41)

Island Countries

(6)

Indicative average investment per annum in

constant US $ (2005)

7.5 4 12 0.3

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Financing Energy InfrastructureFinancing energy infrastructure in Africa is

tackling a diversified reality of energy development, mixing grids and non grids systems, renewable and conventional energy.

It will be a combination of private and public financing, of local and foreign, international, financing.

Summing up all these resources, combined with a dynamic development pushing ahead the fight against poverty, can permit Africa to face the challenge of improving its energy infrastructure

CHALLENGES OF INTEGRATION 

To what conditions shall the great projects be fulfilled :

Agreement about mutual dependance or interdependance;

Harmonisation of rules and laws;Procedures of arbitration and mechanisms of solving disputes;

A business atmosphere friendly for investors.

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A new energy paradigm for AfricaAfrica is significantly affected by the

consequences of climate change, and its sustainable development is dependent upon the adoption of effective measures to combat global warming. Adaptation

A new paradigm for Africa could inspire sustainable modes of energy production and consumption, but this will depend on Africa’s prospects for getting out of poverty, which requires a demanding 7% annual increase of GDP per capita (when population growth effects are factored in).

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