Geopolitics

-What is geopolitics?-What is it used for?-Who needs it?

RUSSIA- MISTERY WRAPPED IN RIDDLE

• Russia is locked into a permanent regional security dilemma• Instability along its borders has led to policies

that aim to protect the center from ‘local’ security problems• Russia's defining characteristic is its

indefensibility( Stratfor)

Indefendable Russia

• Core Russia is limited to the region of the medieval Grand Principality of Muscovy• It counts no rivers, oceans, swamps or

mountains marking its borders -- it relies solely on the relatively inhospitable climate and its forests for defense• Russian history is a chronicle of the agony of

surviving invasion after invasion.

Two directions

• Traditionally these invasions have come from two directions• The first is from the steppes -- wide open

grasslands that connect Russia to Central Asia and beyond -- the path that the Mongols used.• The second is from the North European Plain,

which brought to Russia everything from the Teutonic Knights to the Nazi war machine.

How to deal with invasions?

Expansions

• To deal with these vulnerabilities, Russia expanded in three phases• In the first, Russia expanded not toward the

invasion corridors to establish buffers but away from them to establish a redoubt• the bulk of Russia's expansion during that

period was north to the Arctic and northeast to the Urals

Using territory

• Very little of this territory can be categorized as useful -- most was taiga or actual tundra and only lightly populated • But for Russia it was the only land easily up for

grabs

Second phase

• The second phase of expansion was far more aggressive -- and risky• . In the mid-16th century, Under Ivan IV, Russia

finally moved to seal off the Mongol invasion route. • Russia pushed south and east, deep into the

steppes, and did not stop until it hit the Urals in the east and the Caspian Sea and Caucasus Mountains in the south.

Building an Empire

• Also with this expansion, Ivan IV was transformed from Grand Prince of Moscow to Tsar of All Russia, suggesting the empire to come. • Russia had finally achieved a measure of

conventional security• The third expansion phase dealt with the final

invasion route: from the west. In the 18th century, under Peter and Catherine the Great, Russian power pushed westward, conquering Ukraine to the southwest and pushing on to the Carpathian Mountains.

Strategic locations

• Russia captured several strategically critical locations, including Astrakhan on the Caspian, the land of the Tatars -- a longtime horse-mounted foe -- and Grozny, which was soon transformed into a military outpost at the foot of the Caucasus.• Still Russia did not achieve any truly defensible

borders

Switching problems

• Expansions to the Baltic and Black Seas did end the external threat from the Cossacks and Balts of ages past• price of turning those external threats into

internal ones• Population problem• Today s Russia is dealing with the fact that

Russians are barely a majority in their own country

Empty land

• The empire was (and remains) lightly settled.• Even today, vast areas of Russia are

unpopulated, while in the rest of the country the population is widely distributed in small towns and cities and far less concentrated in large urban areas• Russia's European part is the most densely

populated, but in its expansion Russia both resettled Russian ethnics and assimilated large minorities along the way

Stalin's strategy

• Population distribution also creates a political problem• Joseph Stalin certainly did in his efforts to forge

and support an urban, industrialized population• Force- feeding such economic hardship to

conquered minorities only doubled the need for a tightly controlled security apparatus.

• Therefore, to remain united it had to have a centralized bureaucracy responsive to autocratic rule in the capital and a vast security apparatus • Russia's history is one of controlling the

inherently powerful centrifugal forces tearing at the country's fabric

Security

• Russia, then, has two core geopolitical problems;• The first is holding the empire together• But the creation of that empire poses the

second problem, maintaining internal security. It must hold together the empire and defend it at the same time, and the achievement of one goal tends to undermine efforts to achieve the other.

Geopolitical Imperatives

• Expand north and east to secure a redoubt in climatically hostile territory that is protected in part by the Urals• Expand south to the Caucasus and southeast

into the steppes in order to hamper invasions of Asian origin. As circumstances allow, push as deeply into Central Asia and Siberia as possible to deepen this bulwark.• Expand as far west as possible. Do not stop in

the southwest until the Carpathians are reached. On the North European Plain do not stop ever. Deeper penetration increases security not just in terms of buffers; the North European Plain narrows the further west one travels making its defense easier.•Manage the empire with terror. Since the vast

majority of Russian territory is not actually Russian, a very firm hand is required to prevent myriad minorities from asserting regional control or aligning with hostile forces.• Expand to warm water ports that have open-

ocean access so that the empire can begin to counter the economic problems that a purely land empire suffers.

Strategy of the Russian Empire

• The modern Russian empire faces three separate border regions: Asian Siberia, Central Asia and the Caucasus (now mostly independent states), and Western Europe.• Siberia-There is only one rail line connecting

Siberia to the rest of the empire, and positioning a military force there is difficult if not impossible

• Central Asia. The mature Russian Empire and the Soviet Union were anchored on a series of linked mountain ranges, deserts and bodies of water in this region that gave it a superb defensive position•Western frontier that ran from west of Odessa

north to the Baltic-the vulnerable point

Russia s three strategic options

•Use Russia's geographical depth and climate to suck in an enemy force and then defeat it, as it did with Napoleon and Hitler. • It is interesting to speculate what would have

happened in 1942 if Hitler had resumed his drive on the North European Plain toward Moscow, rather than shift to a southern attack toward Stalingrad.• Face an attacking force with large, immobile

infantry forces at the frontier and bleed them to death, as they tried to do in 1914.

Contemporary Russia

• The greatest extension of the Russian Empire occurred under the Soviets from 1945 to 1989• Paradoxically, this expansion preceded the

collapse of the Soviet Union and the contraction of Russia to its current borders• It has lost its western buffers in Ukraine and

the Baltics and its strong foothold in the Caucasus and in Central Asia.

Causes of the Soviet collapse

•Overextending forces into Central Europe, which taxed the ability of the Soviet Union to control the region while economically exploiting it.• It became a net loss• This in turn forced the Russians into a massive

military buildup that undermined its economy•with the lack of ocean access made Soviet (and

Russian) maritime trade impossible

• Entering an arms race with much richer countries it could compete against only by diverting resources from the civilian economy -- material and intellectual• The best minds went into the military-industrial

complex, causing the administrative and economic structure of Russia to crumble.

Russians had two strategic interests

•Most immediate was to secure their western borders by absorbing Lithuania and anchoring Russia, as far west on the North European Plain as possible• Second strategic interest was to secure Russia's

southeastern frontier against potential threats from the steppes by absorbing Central Asia as well as Ukraine.

West

• Russia's loss of Ukraine and Moldova allows both the intrusion of other powers and the potential rise of a Ukrainian rival on its very doorstep. Powers behind the Carpathians are especially positioned to take advantage of this political geography.• The Baltic states have re-established their

independence, and all three are east and north of the Baltic-Carpathian line (the final defensive line on the North European Plain). Their presence in a hostile alliance is unacceptable. Neither is an independent or even neutral Belarus (also on the wrong side of that line).

• Russia must dominate the Eurasian heartland•When it does, it must want more• The more it wants the more it must face its

internal economic weakness and social instability, which cannot support its ambitions• It has everything to do with geography, which

in turn generates ideologies and shapes character

Ukraine, western neighborhood

Moscow's game

•Moscow’s demonstrative trade sanctions against Ukraine •warm meeting between the presidents of

Russia and Azerbaijan • Kremlin is continuing to play hardball.• Eastern Partnership Summit draws near

Counter action

• Russia s declared priority is to strengthen the Customs Union and create a Eurasian Economic Union on its basis.• This is the aim of its foreign and economic

policies, and all the former Soviet Union countries are invited to join

Warnings

•Ukraine has been told how much it would lose if it signs an enlarged agreement on a free trade zone with the EU• Armenia has been warned that even its close

ties would not be immune if a document on association with the EU were signed

New era

• The days when the U.S. sought to be the leader and to be present everywhere seem to have gone• Priorities will have to be chosen•Ukraine and Georgia will loom as large on

Washington’s agenda as they did 5–7 years ago=hard to imagine• Interest in Central Asia has its limits, especially

after the withdrawal from Afghanistan.•Only focus is energy

Definition

• Modern scientific discipline of the political sciences- explores 3 factors; space , power and population.•Geopolitical positioning is one of the most

important geopolitical categories •Geopolitics – bad connotation in the past: used

to serve as an excuse for territorial an military actions.

Modern circumstances

• Space, power , inhabitants are politically organized • Space - STATE• Power – GOVERNMENT• Inhabitants- NATION

Points of geopolitical positioning

• 1. geographical factors• 2. global political structures • 3. membership in political and military

alliances• 4. inside political structure• 5. political surroundings • 6. democracy• 7. Economic strength

Modern geopolitics(critical geopolitics)

•Don t care about geography •Don t care about military power• CARES about political stability around the

country• CARES about political system inside the

country, state of democracy• CARES about economy• CARES about foreign policy

Cohen, Brzezinski and others…

• End of bipolar world•Difference between Gateways and shatterbelts• depends on the degree of internal stability that

the region has achieved or which it is able to maintain in the face of internal and external ideological and economic forces.

The Real World

•USA• EUROPE• JAPAN• ???• ???• ???

20 th century; the birth of hope

•Optimism on the horizon•World order was firm; Austro-ugarian empire

example of modesty and ethnical harmony• Baggiest Metropolis s- London, Paris, Wiena ,

Sankt Petersburg are centre of the industrial revolution• Art, innovation, architecture, science•Democracy, social democracy – first shapes • The age of Reason

What really happened????

• The bloodiest century in the history•Hatred •Mass murderess•Mega dying• Two world wars, totalitarian civil casualties• Around 87 million people died

Why?

• Literacy• Industrial revolution• Political awareness•Nationalism ; nation state principle•Nationalism – Marxism- demagogic political

style • They all failed- lack of moral ground

USA- the world leader

The global the role of the USA

•US leads the democratic world- US is the only leader • 4 elements of the US as a global power• 1. global military power• 2. global economic influence• 3. global cultural ideological power• 4. political power• 5. Self confidence ( big powers since ancient

Rome …)•What is going on inside the country?• Brzezinski : „permissive wealth”- continuation

of the lack of morality•Greed overcomes care•New „ values” soap operas "Dallas Dynasty…

Rise of the US

• Collapse of the sovereign nation states in Europe•Globalism and international interdependence•US is a small global society • Everybody wants to copy US•Democracy•Human rights record•Media freedom

Golden days

•National sovereignty– national security•Military superiority•We won the war•We don t need anyone• Europe is weak

World is changing

•United Nations 1945.•Need for multilateral action• You cannot be a leader and the isolationist at

the same time• End of era of Untouchable US• Cuban crisis 1950. =technology rules • Result – US has to have partners

Bipolar world

•World of two blocs•West and East•NATO and Warsaw pact•US has secured the global leadership in the

western world of democracies•USSR and satellites promote communism •Democratic system of the West is attractive-

freedom and economic growth, universal rights•Use of military power still accepted• Emphasis on moral ground /Brzezinski/

Problems in paradise, End of cold war

•New strategic challenges•How to handle Japan ?•What to do with Europe? EU integration

process…•Middle East• China• Africa•Does Everybody like America?

Power

•How to use power?• Economic power is not necessarily political

power•Will everybody like American power even if it is

used for good purposes ?•Global leadership or global dominance?•What it really takes to become a global leader? • Basis for international interventionism

Fortress Europe

• Potential to be stronger than the US•No 1. in trade• Competitive technology•Natural resources•Only 5 percent of child poverty/US 22 percent/• Better social and healthcare system• Rich in culture, philosophy , sense of

universalism• inadequate political and military integration • Economic giant and political dwarf•What does the US really want from Europe?

The European union

• An economic and political union • The EU operates through a system of

supranational independent institutions and intergovernmental negotiated decisions by the member states• Institutions of the EU the European

Commission, the Council of the European Union, the European Council, the Court of Justice of the European Union, the European Central Bank, the Court of Auditors, and the European Parliament. The European Parliament is elected every five years by EU citizens. The EU's de facto capital is Brussels.• Single market through a standardized system of

laws that apply in all member states

How big is the EU?

Population of over 500 million inhabitants, or 7.3% of the world population

The EU, in 2011, generated the largest nominal world gross domestic product (GDP) of, representing approximately 21% of the global17.9 billiards GDPIn the process of deepening the integration to banking union, fiscal union, true political union.

Can it be done? When ?

How does it really work ?Within the Schengen Area passport controls have been abolished

EU policies aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital, enact legislation in justice and home affairs, and maintain common policies on trade, agriculture, fisheries and regional development.

A monetary union, the eurozone, was established in 1999 and is composed of 20 member states. Through the Common Foreign and Security Policy the EU has developed a role in external relations and defence.

Permanent diplomatic missions have been established around the world. The EU is represented at the United Nations, the WTO, the G8 and the G-20.

Challenging timesNothing is going to be as it used to

be

September 11.2001

• Terrorist attack•USA is being attacked at its own territory •NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES• Enemy is no longer visible as it used to be •NATO evoked article V.• Public sympathy and outrage •Was it enough ?

How did Bush administration respond?

War on terror•War on terror / what s the enemy s name?

terrorism is just a technique • Axis of evil : good and bad theory , theological

approach •Who is not with us is against us “Marx”• Black and white approach• Preemptive attacks • Rough states Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Syria •Not interconnected, each country case of its

own

Problem no.2Global Economic crisis

• If US sneezes the rest of the world gets flu• Financial crisis led to global

economic crisis• death 4 billiards USD• budget deficit 500 billions

USD• Low industrial competition• Low production growth•Health care system

Global crisis hits global powers

US problems

• Financial crisis led to global economic crisis• death 4 billiards USD• budget deficit 500 billions• Low industrial competition• Low production growth• Health care system• High cost of wars

EU problems

• Dependence on trade with US• Low levels of industrial

production• High cost of labor • Ageing population • Crisis of joint institutions• Crisis of leaders• Lack of political integration