george ford chief economist the phoenix center july 15, 2009 national press club the broadband...
TRANSCRIPT
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GEORGE FORDCHIEF ECONOMIST
THE PHOENIX CENTER
July 15 , 2009Nat ional Press C lub
The Broadband Adoption Index:
Policy Paper No. 36
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Create an economically meaningful and policy relevant index of
broadband adoption that also is capable of handling heterogeneous
connection modalities (e.g. fixed and mobile).
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If the $7B achieves universal availability over the next few years, the U.S. will probably
not change rank.
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General Form
Target
ActualttBAI
Goal:
1. Provide for meaningful performance evaluation across geo-political units (intra- and internationally).
2. Incorporate the underlying economics of adoption and deployment
3. Accommodate different connection modalities
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Population is not a Target
Population is not a target of adoption as implied by OECD statistics
In the U.S., telephones were ubiquitously available and nearly universally adopted, yet TEL/POP was only 0.493.
In Sweden, it was the same, but their TEL/POP was 0.686.
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Broadband Nirvana(Phoenix Center Policy Paper No. 29, July 2007)
Country Subscription Rank Country Subscription Rank
Sweden 0.541 1 New Zealand 0.398 16
Iceland 0.489 2 Portugal 0.392 17
Czech Republic 0.478 3 Japan 0.39 18
Denmark 0.478 4 United Kingdom 0.389 19
Finland 0.477 5 United States 0.38 20
Germany 0.449 6 Luxembourg 0.378 21
Netherlands 0.437 7 Greece 0.362 22
Switzerland 0.429 8 Slovak Republic 0.351 23
France 0.424 9 Ireland 0.347 24
Canada 0.419 10 Poland 0.341 25
Hungary 0.411 11 Spain 0.338 26
Belgium 0.41 12 Australia 0.315 27
Austria 0.406 13 Korea 0.254 28
Italy 0.404 14 Mexico 0.247 29
Norway 0.403 15 Turkey 0.212 30
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BB/POP tells you Little
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Shareof
PotentialMarket
Population
1.0
OECD (BB/POP)
Ignores business connections (could assume proportional to households and scale up; no loss of generality).
Hmax = 0.33
Economy APop/HH = 3
(eg, Portugal)
Hmax = 0.50
Economy BPop/HH = 2(eg, Sweden)
Range of Deception(Economy A outperforms B, but BB/POP says otherwise.)
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Trends in OECD Rank: The Fall (Connections/Capita)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Korea Korea Korea Korea Iceland Denmark Denmark Denmark
Canada Canada Canada Denmark Korea Netherlands
Netherlands Netherlands
Sweden Belgium Iceland Netherlands
Netherlands
IcelandIceland Iceland
U.S. Iceland Denmark Iceland Denmark Korea Norway Norway
Demark Netherlands
Canada Switzerland
Switzerland
Switzerland Switzerland
Sweden Belgium Switzerland
Finland NorwayFinland Finland
Netherlands
Sweden Belgium Norway FinlandKorea Korea
U.S. Japan Japan Canada Sweden Sweden Sweden
Switzerland
Finland Sweden CanadaLuxembourg Luxembourg
U.S. Norway Belgium Belgium Canada Canada
Sweden Japan UK UK UK
U.S. UK Luxembourg
Belgium Belgium
U.S. France France France
Japan Germany Germany
U.S. U.S. US
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Trends in OECD Rank: The Rise (Connections/Capita)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Korea Korea Korea Korea Iceland Denmark Denmark Denmark
Canada Canada Canada Denmark Korea Netherlands
Netherlands Netherlands
Sweden Belgium Iceland Netherlands
Netherlands
IcelandIceland Iceland
U.S. Iceland Denmark Iceland Denmark Korea Norway Norway
Demark Netherlands
Canada Switzerland
Switzerland
Switzerland Switzerland
Sweden Belgium Switzerland
Finland NorwayFinland Finland
Netherlands
Sweden Belgium Norway FinlandKorea Korea
U.S. Japan Japan Canada Sweden Sweden Sweden
Switzerland
Finland Sweden CanadaLuxembourg Luxembourg
U.S. Norway Belgium Belgium Canada Canada
Sweden Japan UK UK UK
U.S. UK Luxembourg
Belgium Belgium
U.S. France France France
Japan Germany Germany
U.S. U.S. US
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THE PHOENIX CENTER
10
Trends in OECD Rank: The Rise (Connections/Capita)
2007
Denmark
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Iceland
Finland
Korea
Sweden
Luxembourg
Canada
1996 PSTN Subscriptio
n RankTOP 10
Denmark
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Iceland
Finland
Sweden
Luxembourg
Canada
Telecom Rank not in sequence.
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OECD Rank (Fixed Telephones 1996; Broadband Dec 2007)
Name BB #
TEL #
Name BB #
TEL#
Name BB#
TEL#
Denmark 1 2 UK 11 12 Ireland 21 23
Netherlands 2 10 Belgium 12 17 Italy 22 20
Norway 3 7 France 13 9 Czech Republic 23 25
Switzerland 4 5 Germany 14 13 Hungary 24 26
Iceland 5 6 United States 15 16 Portugal 25 24
Sweden 6 1 Australia 16 11 Greece 26 14
Korea 7 21 Japan 17 15 Poland 27 29
Finland 8 8 Austria 18 19 Slovak Republic 28 27
Luxembourg 9 4 New Zealand 19 18 Turkey 29 28
Canada 10 3 Spain 20 22 Mexico 30 30
90% Match 80% Match 80% Match
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THE PHOENIX CENTER
12
Food for Thought
Top 10 in broadband; 9 are Top 10 in Wireline Telephone (only 5 in 2001)
Bottom 10 in broadband; 8 are Bottom 10 in Wireline Telephone (7 in 2001)
Of the 14 above the U.S. in broadband, 12 are also above the U.S. in telephone subscriptions
Of the 15 below the U.S. broadband, 12 are also below the U.S. in telephone subscriptions
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THE PHOENIX CENTER
13
Convergence to Telephone Rank
Time0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00 US
UK
SWITZ
MEXICO
LUXEM
AUSTRIA
Tele
ph
on
e R
an
k –
Bro
ad
ban
d R
an
k
* Most other countries follow a similar path.
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THE PHOENIX CENTER
14
Terminal Expectations:Broadband and Wireline Telephone Ranks
Year(June Data)
Correlation Avg. Difference in Ranks
2002 0.600 5.8
2003 0.642 5.5
2004 0.668 5.1
2005 0.728 4.4
2006 0.772 4.1
2007 0.824 3.3
2008 0.861 3.1
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Other Issues with OECD-Style Metric
Today, it includes only Fixed ConnectionsAt the request of a few countries, OECD now
plans to collect and report mobile broadband in the near future. Broadband = 256kbps or more Counted if you buy it or use it (in a specified interval of
time)But how is the data to be used as a measure of
adoption performance?
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OECD Style
Index Fixed = Fixed/Population ?Index Mobile = Mobile/Population ?
How do you rank across 2 dimensions? Can we just add the two for a single index? Do we get the SIM card problem for Europe? What about countries that do mostly one and hardly
any of the other? What if the count is high but due to some having
multiple connections rather than many having at least one form of connection?
How do we deal with the fact that fixed is typically shared, mobile is often not (scaling problem).
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How to Combine the Two?
Can we just add: Fixed + Mobile Fixed is mostly shared, Mobile is mostly consumed by
individuals Mobile counts will swamp fixed counts
Should we scale Fixed by the share rate Fixed + Mobile/ShareRate (sharerate may be hh size) Assumes Mobile is a low quality fixed
How do homogenize unlike things? We convert the counts to values What is the value of fixed? What is the value of mobile?
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One Modality
**
,,t
Target
Actual
ff
tftft qv
qvBAI
vi* = average social value of a connection of modality i at the
“target”qi
* = quantity of connections of modality i at the “target”
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What is the Value of Broadband?
Willingness to Pay (w)Social Premia (e)
Externalities Spillovers Etc.
Cost of Production (c)Net Social Value v = w + e - c
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Target Adoption
w
c - e
$
q* qv=0
c
q’
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Social Value
w
c - e
$
q*
Social Value
qv=0
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Maximum Subscription is Not Ideal
As long as c - e > 0, 100% consumption is not ideal.
w
c- e
$
q*
A
qv=0
W
Welfare Loss from excess
consumption.
qi* qi
v=0
Vi*
Viv=0
Vi
SocialValue (V)
Social Value = A - B
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Optimal Consumption Depends on Costs
If costs are higher, then optimal quantity is lower.
wc- e
$
q*
w
c- e
$
q* q
Low CostMarket
High CostMarket
q
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Optimal Consumption Depends on Demand
If demand is lower, then optimal quantity is lower.
wc- e
$
q*
wc- e
$
q*
High DemandMarket
Low DemandMarket
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Simple Graph
w
c - e
$
q*
Avg. Value = v* = V/q*
Soc. Value = v*q* = V
q
V
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BAI at Time t
CBABA
A
qv
qvA
qBAv
t
t
**11
11 /)(
Assumption: Marginal, thus average, valuation declines over time. Here, highest valued users adopt first.
wci
$
q*q1
A
BC
qv=0
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Two Modalities (f, m)
****
,,,,
mmff
tmtmtftft qvqv
qvqvBAI
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Does it simplify?
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One Modality
*
,
f
tft q
qBAI
Diminishing Marginal Valuation
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Simulation
Two Modalities, f and mf is sharedm is personalcf =40; cm = 20Max value for m is 100Average share rate: k = 2Scale f demand to 200 (= 100·2)Personal Market = 2,000 personsShared Market = 1,000 units (= 2,000/k)m is a mild net substitute for f
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Willingness-to-Pay (Demand) System
fm
mf
mm
qp
qp
1000
05.0200)05.0200(
2000100
100
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Simulation Algorithm
ci
vi
qiqi* qi
v=0
Compute q*, V*, then scroll through quantities up to qv=0. We compute V at each quantity then compute weights.
Do so in 10 percentage point intervals, so we have a 11x11 matrix of wi’s.
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BAI Simulation: Two Modalities
m ↓ f→ 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.1 30.3 43 53.7 62.4 69.2 73.9 76.7 77.4 76.2 73.1
0.2 42.9 54.7 64.6 72.6 78.8 83.1 85.5 86 84.7 81.4
0.3 53.4 64.3 73.4 80.8 86.4 90.2 92.2 92.5 91 87.7
0.4 61.8 71.8 80.2 86.8 91.9 95.2 96.9 96.9 95.2 91.9
0.5 68.1 77.2 84.8 90.8 95.2 98.1 99.4 99.2 97.3 93.9
0.6 72.3 80.6 87.4 92.7 96.6 99 99.9 99.4 97.4 93.9
0.7 74.5 81.8 87.8 92.5 95.8 97.7 98.3 97.5 95.4 91.9
0.8 74.5 81 86.2 90.2 92.9 94.4 94.6 93.5 91.2 87.7
0.9 72.5 78.1 82.5 85.8 87.9 88.9 88.8 87.5 85 81.4
1.0 68.4 73.1 76.7 79.3 80.9 81.4 80.9 79.3 76.7 73.1
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BAI Simulation: Two Modalities(Zero costs; no substitution)
m ↓ f→ 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
0.1 19.0 27.5 35.0 41.5 47.0 51.5 55.0 57.5 59.0 59.5
0.2 27.5 36.0 43.5 50.0 55.5 60.0 63.5 66.0 67.5 68.0
0.3 35.0 43.5 51.0 57.5 63.0 67.5 71.0 73.5 75.0 75.5
0.4 41.5 50.0 57.5 64.0 69.5 74.0 77.5 80.0 81.5 82.0
0.5 47.0 55.5 63.0 69.5 75.0 79.5 83.0 85.5 87.0 87.5
0.6 51.5 60.0 67.5 74.0 79.5 84.0 87.5 90.0 91.5 92.0
0.7 55.0 63.5 71.0 77.5 83.0 87.5 91.0 93.5 95.0 95.5
0.8 57.5 66.0 73.5 80.0 85.5 90.0 93.5 96.0 97.5 98.0
0.9 59.0 67.5 75.0 81.5 87.0 91.5 95.0 97.5 99.0 99.5
1.0 59.5 68.0 75.5 82.0 87.5 92.0 95.5 98.0 99.5 100
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BAI Simulation: Alternatives
Scenario 1 Cost of m (cm):
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
qm*/ qmw=0
0.57 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.36 0.31 0.26 0.21 0.16
qf*/ qfw=0
0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.78
Scenario 2 Cost of f (cf): 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
qm*/ qmw=0
0.57 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64
qf*/ qfw=0
0.72 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.50 0.46 0.41
Scenario 3 Max Value m
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
qm*/ qmw=0
0.57 0.64 0.70 0.73 0.76 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84
qf*/ qfw=0
0.72 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66
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Can this be done?
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Econometric Implementation
Data on What is Purchased? How much is Paid? Demographics of Buyers Cost data by modality
BAI can be computed using this data Example provided in Paper No. 36
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Target Setting
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Some Portugal Targets
Achieve at least 50% household broadband adoption.
Increase public access to public Internet locations (16 per 100 POP).
Increase number of computers in schools to one per five students.
100% of Central Government institutions with broadband access.
100% of hospitals with broadband access.
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Target Setting
It is unreasonable to expect a relatively poor and uneducated country to have the same broadband deployment and adoption rates as a relatively rich and educated country.
Comparing such countries on per-capita terms says nothing about the success or failure of broadband policies.
50% adoption in Mexico or Turkey may be stellar, but in the U.S. would be considered a failure.
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Target Setting
Variable Coef t-stat
C -9.95 -4.81
LN(PRICE) -0.39 -2.56
LN(GDPCAP) 0.35 2.46
LN(GINI) -0.73 -3.18
LN(AGE65) -0.29 -2.60
LN(URBAN) 0.99 3.89
LN(TEL) 2.81 3.50
LN(TEL)^2 -0.36 -2.73N = 30; June-08 data; R2 = 0.93
-.3
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
-3.2
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
65 70 75 80 85 90
Residual Actual Fitted
Nearly all (93%) of the differences in fixed connections per capita across countries are explained by few demographic and economic endowments.
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Summary
Performance is a value-based conceptAny modality that generates value must be
included in performance measures Per- Capita Normalizations are misguided Anyway, not clear how to do it with multiple modalities
Combining heterogeneous modalities is tricky, but the problem is understood
The underlying economics of deployment and adoption must be considered for good policy Countries vary in their demand and cost profiles Maximal deployment/adoption assumes external effects are
enormous
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Summary
Avoid the willy-nilly by focusing the analysis on the components of target setting Willingness to Pay Realistic size of the Social Premia Cost of deployment
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