george h. atkinson, ph.d. science and technology adviser to the secretary of state the globalization...

George H. Atkinson, Ph.D.

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State

The Globalization of Science and Technology:The Globalization of Science and Technology:

U.S. and International Strategies U.S. and International Strategies

World Bank Global ForumBuilding Science, Technology, and Innovationfor Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction

Washington: February 14, 2007

Overview of RemarksOverview of RemarksScience and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

1. S&T in 211. S&T in 21stst century global affairs century global affairs

2.2. Evolution of U.S. S&T modelsEvolution of U.S. S&T models

3.3. Recognizing 21Recognizing 21stst century global challenges for S&T century global challenges for S&Ta. Globally competitive innovation systemsa. Globally competitive innovation systemsb. Aging population demographicsb. Aging population demographicsc. S&T alter societal and governmental institutions c. S&T alter societal and governmental institutions

4.4. The Conundrum for Science Advice in the 21st CenturyThe Conundrum for Science Advice in the 21st Century

1. S&T in 211. S&T in 21stst century global affairs century global affairsScience and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

ObservationsObservations

• S&T advances have enormous, immediate influence on S&T advances have enormous, immediate influence on global and national economiesglobal and national economies, and on , and on international international relationsrelations..

• Nations are largely shaped by their Nations are largely shaped by their expertise inexpertise in and and access to S&Taccess to S&T. .

• Major S&T advances of our time not only offer Major S&T advances of our time not only offer remarkable remarkable new opportunitiesnew opportunities, but often , but often challenge our social challenge our social institutionsinstitutions and and ethical principlesethical principles..

• In an increasingly global world, In an increasingly global world, accurate scientific accurate scientific information must inform policy makersinformation must inform policy makers and and policy makers policy makers must promote justified scientific goalsmust promote justified scientific goals..

1. S&T in 211. S&T in 21stst century global affairs century global affairs

Global Leadership in S&T is transitoryGlobal Leadership in S&T is transitory

In the 19In the 19thth century, and at the outset of the 20 century, and at the outset of the 20 th th century, the century, the dominant global S&T power was dominant global S&T power was Europe.Europe.

Since the middle of the 20Since the middle of the 20thth century, the dominant global century, the dominant global S&T power has been the S&T power has been the United States.United States.

In the 21In the 21stst century, a new century, a new internationally collaborativeinternationally collaborative reality reality is emerging since:is emerging since:

Science and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

1. the scientific challenges are themselves more complex 1. the scientific challenges are themselves more complex in nature and global in impactin nature and global in impact

2. scientific research itself is increasingly international2. scientific research itself is increasingly international

3. Technologies (products) are developed within a global 3. Technologies (products) are developed within a global frameworkframework

1. S&T in 211. S&T in 21stst century global affairs century global affairsScience and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

At the outset of the 21At the outset of the 21stst century, S&T leadership continues to century, S&T leadership continues to be be dynamicdynamic

Expanding regional and international engagement:Expanding regional and international engagement: Successful 21st century S&T innovation in any country will Successful 21st century S&T innovation in any country will

increasingly depend the degree to which it can establish increasingly depend the degree to which it can establish international S&T cooperation.international S&T cooperation.

Encouraging a balance between short-term applications of Encouraging a balance between short-term applications of existing knowledge and long-term, risk taking S&T research:existing knowledge and long-term, risk taking S&T research:A system of societal investments in scientific research and

technological development that does not accept a reasonable degree of failure as the price for successful innovation is a

system that is itself doomed to failure.

2. Evolution of U.S. S&T models2. Evolution of U.S. S&T modelsScience and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

Vannevar Bush (1945)Vannevar Bush (1945)Science: The Endless FrontierScience: The Endless Frontier

• The U.S. government supports basic science research in The U.S. government supports basic science research in the universities, while industry pursues applied research.the universities, while industry pursues applied research.

• Established NIH and NSF, and set the paradigm for the Established NIH and NSF, and set the paradigm for the ascendance of American science.ascendance of American science.

• The innovation path is a linear, unidirectional process:The innovation path is a linear, unidirectional process:

Basic Basic Research Research Applied Research Applied Research Development Development Commercial Production Commercial Production

2. Evolution of U.S. S&T models2. Evolution of U.S. S&T modelsLessons LearnedLessons Learned

What characteristics of the U.S. system made it successful What characteristics of the U.S. system made it successful and which are relevant to the future?and which are relevant to the future?

1. U.S. made a consistent commitment to 1. U.S. made a consistent commitment to education, and education, and especially to higher education and scientific research.especially to higher education and scientific research. U.S. research universities would not be what they are U.S. research universities would not be what they are today without 50 years of Federal support.today without 50 years of Federal support.

2. U.S. fostered an open, welcoming environment that 2. U.S. fostered an open, welcoming environment that encouraged encouraged students and researchers from around the students and researchers from around the world to participate in the U.S. system.world to participate in the U.S. system.

3. U.S. private sector converted many scientific advances 3. U.S. private sector converted many scientific advances into world-class technologies promoting societal well-into world-class technologies promoting societal well-being and being and creating new global economies.creating new global economies.

U.S. S&T remains a major economic force globally and widely U.S. S&T remains a major economic force globally and widely respected worldwiderespected worldwide



BohrBohr

Pure basic Pure basic researchresearch

Pasteur Pasteur

Use-inspired Use-inspired basic researchbasic research

DescriptiveDescriptive Pure applied Pure applied researchresearch

Edison Edison

Consider use?Consider use? NONO YESYES

YESYESQuest for Quest for basic basic research?research?

NONO

Pasteur’s Quadrant: S&T InnovationPasteur’s Quadrant: S&T Innovation

A new appraisal of basic S&T research and A new appraisal of basic S&T research and

innovationinnovation

Gross domestic product (Billion 2004 US$)Gross domestic product (Billion 2004 US$)Science and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

3. Recognizing 21st century3. Recognizing 21st centuryglobal challenges for S&Tglobal challenges for S&T


Lessons Learned?Lessons Learned?

1. The characteristics of societies in the 211. The characteristics of societies in the 21stst century are changing rapidly from those in 20century are changing rapidly from those in 20thth century century and in directions that make designing a successful S&T and in directions that make designing a successful S&T innovation system exceptionally difficult. New innovation system exceptionally difficult. New concepts are needed!concepts are needed!

2. Global leadership in S&T depends on how well 2. Global leadership in S&T depends on how well the educational, research, and innovation (private the educational, research, and innovation (private sector) communities recognize and respond to a highly sector) communities recognize and respond to a highly competitive and potentially aggressive 21competitive and potentially aggressive 21stst century century global S&T environment.global S&T environment.

3. 3. Risk-taking research that accepts a Risk-taking research that accepts a reasonable degree of failure, both for short-term reasonable degree of failure, both for short-term applications of S&T and for long-term commitments to applications of S&T and for long-term commitments to S&T research, is a critical element in 21S&T research, is a critical element in 21stst century S&T century S&T innovation.innovation.



Consider three primary issues affecting S&T strategies at Consider three primary issues affecting S&T strategies at the outset of the 21the outset of the 21stst century century

• worldwide innovation systems that are worldwide innovation systems that are increasingly competitive intellectually and in increasingly competitive intellectually and in global global marketsmarkets

• a significantly expanding global population with a significantly expanding global population with rapidly aging demographics in specific countriesrapidly aging demographics in specific countries • S&T advances that could dramatically alter S&T advances that could dramatically alter societal and governmental institutions as well as societal and governmental institutions as well as challenge ethical and social moreschallenge ethical and social mores

Physical Review Physical Review and and Physical Review LettersPhysical Review Letters

Published 1983 - 1984Published 1983 - 1984

Courtesy ofThe American Physical Society

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.

Population Growth:Population Growth:

Developed vs. Developing CountriesDeveloped vs. Developing Countries Science and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

Less than 7.497.5 to 14.9915 to 22.4922.5 to 29.9930 or higher

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2005).

Percent elderly, 2000

Less than 7.497.5 to 14.9915 to 22.4922.5 to 29.9

30 or higher

Percent elderly, 2050

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2005).

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

40

50

60

70

80

life e

xpect

ancy

, 20

00

gdp per capita, 2000, current PPP $

USA

Japan

Germany

FranceItaly

UK

Spain

Korea

Argentina

South Africa

Equatorial Guinea

Mexico

Russia

Brazil

Botswana

Namibia

Gabon

China

India

Indonesia

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Life expectancy vs. GDPLife expectancy vs. GDPScience and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

3. Recognizing 21st century3. Recognizing 21st century global challenges for S&Tglobal challenges for S&T


S&T as a bridge between cultures

Global S&T cooperation can infuse the liberal principles of Global S&T cooperation can infuse the liberal principles of science throughout the fabric of societiesscience throughout the fabric of societies

• Promotes access to information and knowledge, factors that empower citizens

• Promotes transparency through open publication

• Promotes meritocracy of ideas through peer review

• Supports creativity and critical thinking

• Promotes mutual respect for diverse views for diverse views

Builds a “Knowledge-Based Society”Builds a “Knowledge-Based Society”

3.3. Recognizing 21Recognizing 21stst century centuryglobal challenges for S&Tglobal challenges for S&T


Lessons being learnedLessons being learned ? ?

Policy makers increasingly depend on an accurate and timely Policy makers increasingly depend on an accurate and timely understanding of the current opportunities to implement understanding of the current opportunities to implement existing existing S&T understandingS&T understanding as well as the practical significance of as well as the practical significance of “emerging and at-the-horizon” S&T advances “emerging and at-the-horizon” S&T advances anticipated by anticipated by researchers.researchers.

Policies tailored to supportPolicies tailored to support BOTHBOTH applications of existing S&T applications of existing S&T knowledge knowledge andand the educators and researchers training the next the educators and researchers training the next generation generation are critical elements in successful innovation.are critical elements in successful innovation.

More scientists and engineers who can identify the most effectiveMore scientists and engineers who can identify the most effective balance in a given society balance in a given society are needed in the societal and are needed in the societal and governmental decision making process.governmental decision making process.

“In the 21st century, American foreign policy must have a sound scientific foundation. And we must build on that foundation to stem the spread

of infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDs, to stop proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to lift people out of poverty, and lead states onto the path of sustainable development.” Secretary of

State Powell – May 2004

““Openness in recognizing that there are no boundaries and therefore Openness in recognizing that there are no boundaries and therefore keeping ourselves open to other people, making sure that we are at keeping ourselves open to other people, making sure that we are at the center of scientific discourse ….” the center of scientific discourse ….” Secretary of State Rice – Secretary of State Rice –

January, 2005January, 2005

Jefferson Science Fellows program

Global Dialogues on Emerging S&T (5 countries and regions)

Perspectives on the Future of S&T conferences

Global Science Partnerships for the 21st Century



5. The Conundrum for Science in the5. The Conundrum for Science in the 21st Century21st Century


““What man desires is not knowledge, but What man desires is not knowledge, but certainty.”certainty.”

Winston ChurchillWinston Churchill

““If all economists (scientists?) were laid end to end, If all economists (scientists?) were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.”they would not reach a conclusion.”

George Bernard ShawGeorge Bernard Shaw

““The aim of science is not to open the door to The aim of science is not to open the door to infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error.”infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error.”

Bertolt Brecht, Bertolt Brecht, The Life of Galileo (1939)The Life of Galileo (1939)

5. The Conundrum for Science in the5. The Conundrum for Science in the 21st Century21st Century


““For every complicated problem, there is always a simple For every complicated problem, there is always a simple solution… and it is always wrong!solution… and it is always wrong!

H.L. Mencken

““The trouble with the world is that the stupid are The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”

Bertrand RussellBertrand Russell

“...there is no idea so stupid that you can’t find a professor who will believe it.”

H.L. Mencken

55

5.5. The Conundrum for Science in the The Conundrum for Science in the 21st Century21st Century


““The aim of science is not to open the door to infinite The aim of science is not to open the door to infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error.”wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error.”Bertolt Brecht, The Life of Galileo (1939)Bertolt Brecht, The Life of Galileo (1939)

““Most of us are more responsible for what we decide not Most of us are more responsible for what we decide not to do than for what we do.”to do than for what we do.”

Voltaire

STAS WEBSITEScience and TechnologyAdviser to the Secretary

www.state.gov/g/stas

george h. atkinson, ph.d. science and technology adviser to the secretary of state the globalization...

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