Housing Review

Attainable Housing ForumTrail B.C., May 27, 2009

George PenfoldRegional Innovation Chair

Selkirk College

Housing and Labour Markets

Background on housing industry

Background on population

Background on housing stock.

Census based needs assessment

Roles in responding to needs

Presentation Themes

Housing and Labour MarketsIn Commute Out Commute

Housing and Labour Markets

In Commute Out Commute

$73 M in LCCDT Municipalities 2006 – 2008, $51 M in Rossland 2006 - 2008

251 new units in LCCDT municipalities 2006 – 2008, 157 in Rossland

47% of Total Residential Permit Value in rural RD Kootenay Boundary 2006 - 2008

Annual house maintenance LCCDT Area- 2008 Estimate $15.6 M annually

Housing and the Regional Economy

Kootenay Development Region (East and West Kootenay) 1997 2007 2008

Total employed, ('000) 65.3 77.1 71.5Construction 3.6 9.2 8.0Finance, insurance, real estate, leasing 3.0 3.2 2.3Business, building, support services 1.6 2.4 1.6

Compared to:Manufacturing 7.6 8.4 4.6Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas 4.1 5.4 6.9

RDKB Construction - 12% of all firms, Dec 2007

Housing and the Regional Economy

Assessed Developed Residential Property Value in LCCDT Area (2008) - $1.56 B or approximately $80,000 per person

Largest “equity” base for many households

Big contributor to basic quality of life, comfort and to “status” for many

Homeowners contribute to lack of affordable inventory by “up scaling,” “gentrifying”, “home makeovers”

Housing and the Personal Economy

“Boomer” generation retiring. Creates housing demand for retired, semi retired “amenity migrants”

West Kootenay Labour Force projected needs - 7,100 new and replacement workers 2006 to 2011

Competing demands generate increasing prices if supply is not adequate

Relationship to Economic and Demographic Change

Relationship to Economic Change

2006 Census Average Housing Values2006 2001-20006 Increase

Fruitvale $145,158 27%Montrose $167,688 41%Rossland $242,668 99%Trail $142,303 33%Warfield $160,522 47%

Kootenay Boundary A $206,681 24%Kootenay Boundary B $165,644 27%BC $418,703 82%

Average Assessed Housing Values2008 2001-2008 Increase

Manufactured Home $47,900 40.9%

Single Family $204,600 126.8%

Acreage Dwelling $308,700 117.1%

Strata Condo $255,100 323.8%

Multi Family $220,800 104.1%

Relationship to Economic Change

Rental Households

% of all Households

2001-2006 Change

LCCDT Area 1,610 19.7% -5.8%

Rented 2006 Avg. Rent 20062001-2006

Rent ChangeFruitvale 20.2% $542 16.8%Montrose 3.6% $688 16.8%Rossland 11.2% $575 -8.0%Trail 26.2% $556 10.3%Warfield 15.8% $567 15.9%RDKB A 11.2% $595 -7.0%RDKB B 6.1% $515 7.7%BC 27.3% $828 10.3%

LCCDT Rental Households

Minimum wage 0%

Relationship to Economic Change

Average Household Income 2006 2001-2006Change

Fruitvale $50,277 1%

Montrose $59,941 17%

Rossland $60,088 18%

Trail $43,087 15%

Warfield $50,087 -16%

Kootenay Boundary A $61,286 8% Kootenay Boundary B $53,297 -1%BC $67,675 18%

LCCDT Non- Resident Ownership

GF/GW

ML/SW

RoBC

Alb

RoC

Other

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

20082001

2001 2008

Total Parcels 10,737 11,042

Non Resident 9.5% 13.8%

Property Type

Share of Titles

Single Family 8%

Acreage Dwelling 8%

Multi Family 19%

Agricultural 3%

Hotel/Resort 24%

Commercial 25%

Manufacturing 55%

LCCDT Non- Resident Ownership 2008

LCCDT Population Forecast 2006 - 2026

2006 2011 2016 2021 202618,200

18,400

18,600

18,800

19,000

19,200

19,400

19,600 19,505

19,19919,047

18,902

18,672

Population

LCCDT Household Forecast 2006 - 2021

2006 2011 2016 20218,650

8,700

8,750

8,800

8,850

8,900

8,950

9,000

8,760

8,862

8,939 8,942

LCCDT Population Cohorts 2006 - 2016

0-17

18-24

25-64

65+

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00%

18.36%

10.67%

52.79%

18.17%

15.29%

7.63%

55.88%

21.20%

20162006

+494

-669

-628

+344

Dwelling Type LCCDT Area BC

Total private dwellings occupied by usual residents (17% Rural) 8,240 1,643,150Single-detached houses 80.3% 49.2%Multi Family 4.2% 10%

Apartments 11.9% 38%

Other dwellings (Mobile) 3.6% 2.8%

Individuals/Families in supportive housing 358 (4.3%)

LCCDT Occupied Dwellings - 2006

Location(2006 Census)

Avg. Dwelling Value 2006

Avg. Household

Income 2005

Avg. Dwelling Value 2006/Avg.

Household Income 2005

LCCDT Area $169,976 $59,560 2.9

Rossland $242,668 $71,992 3.4

Montrose $167,688 $69,961 2.4

Nelson $273,287 $51,717 5.3

CBT $238,823 $57,534 4.2

BC $418,703 $67,675 6.2

Where do we stand on affordability ?

Where do we stand on affordability ?(30% or more of household income on housing)

LCCDT AREA (2006 Census)

% Total HouseholdsSpending 30% or more

Proportion Rental of Total

LCCDT Area 17.0% 40.2% Trail 19.3% 44.2%

Castlegar Area 18.1% 34.9%

BC 28.4% 45.5%

Total Households Rental OwnedLCCDT Area 1,395

645 (40.2% of rental)

750 (11.3% of owned)

Where do we stand on affordability ?(30% or more of household income on housing)

In 2006 (RDKB), 40.4% of all rental households were aged 55+

LCCDT Area One Person Non-Family

Lone-Parent Family

Couple Family With

Children

Couple Family Without Children

Affordability Challenged

735 235 165 195

% Affordability Challenged

52.7% 16.8% 11.8% 14.0%

% Household Type 27.9% 32.9% 8.3% 7.2%

Who has Affordability Problems? (30% or more of household income on

housing)

In 2006 (RDKB), 64.8% of single person households were aged 55+, 28.1% of single person households were aged 75+

Total Income(Tax filer 2005) Total

MedianIncome

Pre Tax Low Income

Couple economic families 7,945 $63,782 6.2%

Male lone-parent economic families 305 $45,377 14.8%

Female lone-parent economic families 780 $27,565 34.0%

Males 15 years and over not in economic families 2,395 $27,751 26.3%Females 15 years and over not in economic families 2,590 $20,086 28.4%

RDKB Incomes –2005

Following are possible categories of housing need:

• Basic shelter (emergency, homeless)• Transition/care• Subsidized rental housing• Market rental housing• Non-market housing• Market housing• Live work housing

Local Government Role

Different partners and roles depending on what is being considered:

• Local and/or Regional Government• Provincial and Federal Government (BC

Housing, CMHC)• Local and/or Regional NGO’s/CBT• Private Sector

Basic Question: who will invest in, and manage affordable housing development?

Housing Strategies