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Georgian Economic Outlook Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia 2014

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Page 1: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Georgian Economic Outlook

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable

Development of Georgia

2014

Page 2: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Country Overview

Area 69 700 sq km

Population 3,7 mln

Life expectancy 72.9 years

Official language Georgian

Literacy 100%

Currency Lari (GEL)

GDP: 2014* US$ 16.5 billion

GDP - real growth rate 2014* 4.8%

GDP - Per Capita 2014* US$ 3,680.8

Inflation rate 2014 (average annual; e-o-p)

3.1%; 2.0%

Public External debt to GDP 2014 26.8%

Page 3: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Economic Growth

Nominal GDP and Real Growth Nominal GDP Per Capita

Construction 13.5%

Financial Intermediation 11.9%

Financial Activities 10%

Real estate 8.5%

Communication 7.1%

Transport 6.4%

Trade 6.1%

Hotels and Restaurants 5.6%

Manufacturing 3.9%

Fastest Growing Sectors 2014* Components of Nominal GDP 2014*

Source: GEOSTAT

7.8

10.2

12.8 10.8

11.6

14.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 9.4%

12.6%

2.6%

-3.7%

6.2% 7.2%

6.4%

3.3%

4.8%

0

5

10

15

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

US

$ b

illi

on

Nominal GDP GDP real growth

1764

2315

2921

2455 2623

3231 3523 3600 3681

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

US

$

Trade 17.4%

Industry 17.1%

Transport & Communication

10.5% Public Administration

9.9%

Agriculture 9.2%

Construction 7.3%

Real Estate 6.0%

Healthcare 5.7%

other 16.8%

Page 4: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

• End of period – 2.0%

• Average annual – 3.1%

Inflation Trend 2004 - 2014

Monthly Inflation

Inflation 2014

Monthly Inflation

Source: GEOSTAT

Inflation

5.7

8.2 9.2

9.2

10.0

1.7

7.1 8.5

-0.9

-0.5

3.1

7.5

6.2

8.8

11.0

5.5 3.0

11.2

2.0

-1.4

2.4

2.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

Average annual End of Period

0.3 -0.3

-0.1

0.4

0.7

-0.6 -1.3

0.0 -0.1

1.5 0.5

1.5

0.8

0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.3

-0.9

-0.6

0.5

1.2

0.3

-0.1

0.7

0.2 0.1 1.2 0.3

0.6

0.0 -0.2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

2013 2014 2015

%

CPI to the previous month

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

2013 2014 2015

%

CPI to the same month of previous year

CPI 12 months average over the previous 12 month average

Page 5: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Social Statistics

Subsistence Minimum (working age male) Subsistence Minimum, 2014

For working age male – 154,5 GEL

For average consumer – 136,9 GEL

For average family – 259,2 GEL

Source: GEOSTAT

Inequality Indicators, 2014 Share of population under 60 percent of the median consumption (%)

• Georgia – 21.4%

• Urban – 15.1%

• Rural – 27.4%

Poverty Threshold, 2014

Beneficiaries of subsistence allowance – 432 487 person

Change - 0.3%

Share of population under the poverty threshold – 11.6% Share of the Population Under

Poverty Threshold

95.8 106.5

118.6 127.9 128.8 134.3

157.8 151.1 149 154.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GE

L

6.4

8.4

9.9 9.7 9.2 9.7 9.7

11.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

Page 6: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Unemployment Rate Monthly Salary of Employed in

State and Non-state Sectors, 2014

Average – 866.4 GEL, growth 12,1%

State Sector - 788.3 GEL, growth 6,2%

Non-state Sector - 921.1 growth 15,8%

Business Sector - 760.1 GEL, growth 15,5%

Non-business Sector - 794.3 Gel, growth 6,9%

Source: GEOSTAT

Unemployment rate – 12.4% • Employed population – 1,745.2 thousand

hired – 692.3 thousand

self employed – 1,046.1 thousand

• Unemployed population – 246.0 thousand

Unemployment Rate, 2014 Monthly Nominal Salaries, 2014

Labour Market

13.8 13.6 13.3

16.5 16.9 16.3 15.1 15.0 14.6

12.4

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

194 249

312

481 513 539 589

656 739

788

228 316

438

603 609 661 670

749 795

921

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GE

L

state sector non-state sector

Page 7: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Foreign Trade

Foreign Trade 2014

Total Trade Turnover – 11,454 mln. USD (4.9% Growth)

• Export – 2,861 mln. USD (1.7% decline)

• Import – 8,593 mln. USD (7.3% growth)

• Balance – -5,733 mln. USD (12.4% increase)

Source: GEOSTAT

10 main Trade Partners, 2014

Foreign Trade – Turnover, Export, Import

Foreign Trade by Country Groups, 2014

0

1,0 00

2,0 00

3,0 00

4,0 00

5,0 00

6,0 00

7,0 00

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

EU CIS BSEC OECD GUAM

Turnover Import Export

3,353

4,611

6,444

7,797

5,634

6,935

9,225

10,413

10,921

11,454

865

936

1,232

1,495

1,134

1,677

2,187

2,376

2,910

2,488

3,675

5,212

6,302

4,500

5,257

7,038

8,037

8,012

8,593

-1,622

-2,738

-3,980

-4,806

-3,367

-3,580

-4,852

-5,661

-5,102

-5,733

-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,0 00 4,0 00 6,0 00 8,0 00 10, 000 12, 000

-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014*

Foreign Trade ( US$ million)

Turnover Export Import Balance

1967

1182

853 823 868

535 499 495 374 371

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

US

$ m

illi

on

Export Import Turnover

Page 8: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Foreign Trade with Country Groups

Source: GEOSTAT

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EU (US$ million)

Export Import

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CIS (US$ million)

Export Import

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

OECD (US$ million)

Export Import

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BSEC (US$ million)

Export Import

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GUAM (US$ million)

Export Import

Page 9: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Foreign Trade Structure 2014

Source: GEOSTAT

Georgian Exports by Country

Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Exports by Commodity Group

Georgian Imports by Country

19.0%

10.1%

9.6%

8.4% 7.2%

5.8%

4.9%

3.2%

3.1%

3.0%

25.7% Azerbaijan

Armenia

Russia

Turkey

USA

Bulgaria

Ukraine

China

Kazakhstan

Italy

Others

20.1%

8.5%

7.4%

6.7%

6.4% 5.4% 4.3%

3.6%

3.3%

2.6%

31.6%

Turkey

China

Azerbaijan

Russia

ukraine

Germany

Japan

Romania

USA

Italy

Others

18.1%

10.0%

8.7%

6.4%

6.3% 4.8% 4.8%

3.3% 3.2%

2.2%

32.1%

Motor cars

Ferro-alloys

Copper ores

Nuts

Wine

Fertilizers

Mineral waters

Spirituous beverages

Medicaments

Bars and rods

Other products

10.7%

8.3%

4.3%

3.7% 2.3%

1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%

63.5%

Petroleum

Motor cars

Petroleum gases

Medicaments

Telephone sets

Copper ores

Wheat

Cigarettes

Autom. data proc. machines

Parts of iron or steel

Others

Page 10: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Trade Policy

• Free Trade Regime – with CIS countries and Turkey (since 2008)

• Most Favored Nation Regime (MFN) – with World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries

• Preferential Regime (GSP) – with USA, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Norway

• Preferential Regime (GSP+) – with EU (7200 items) since 2005

Competitive Trade Regimes

• Low import tariffs

• Few export/import licenses and permits

• No quantitative restrictions on import and export

• No customs tariff on export and re-export

• No VAT on export

• Simplified export and import procedures

Main Features of Georgian Trade Policy

Georgia has bilateral treaties on investment

promotion and protection with 31 countries

Georgia has concluded double taxation

treaties with 47 countries

Page 11: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Economic Integration with the EU

Prospects & Opportunities

Association Agreement (AA) with its integral part – Agreement on Deep and

Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) is the new stage of Georgia’s deeper political

& economic integration with the EU

Negotiation on Association Agreement with its integral part – DCFTA successfully finalized in July 2013

AA was initialed at Eastern Partnership Vilnius Summit in November 2013

AA was signed in June 2014 & ratified by Parliament of Georgia in July, 2014

DCFTA is provisionally applied since September 1, 2014

DCFTA provides

Liberalization of trade with the EU

Free movement of goods, services & capital

Growth of export potential

Growth of investment potential & opportunities

Page 12: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

FDI inflows

FDI by Countries

Foreign Direct Investment

FDI 2014* – 1 758,4 mln. USD

• growth – 35,1%

• share in GDP – 7,7%

FDI 2013 – 941,9 mln. USD

FDI by Sectors 2014*

2013 2014*

Netherlands 16% Netherlands 21%

Luxemburg 15% Azerbaijan 19%

China 10% China 12%

Azerbaijan 9% USA 10%

United Arab Emirates 7% Luxemburg 6%

United Kingdom 6% United Kingdom 6%

International organizations 6% Russia 5%

USA 5% Panama 4%

Other 26% Other 23%

Total 100% Total 100%

Source: GEOSTAT

450 1190 2015 1564 658 814 1117 912 942 1758

7.0

15.3

19.8

12.2

6.1 7.0 7.7 5.8 5.8

10.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

%

US

$ m

illi

on

FDI share in GDP (%)

25%

18%

12% 11%

8%

7%

6%

2% 11% Transport and Communication

Construction

Manufactuing

Energy sector

Real estate

Financial sector

Mining

Hotels and restaurants

Other sectors

Page 13: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Fiscal and Monetary Performance

Source: National Bank of Georgia Source: National Bank of Georgia

NBG’s Gross FX Reserves

Source: National Bank of Georgia

Tax Revenue Performance Exchange Rate Evolution

1.91 1.81 1.77

1.67 1.49

1.67 1.78

1.68 1.65 1.67 1.77

2.38 2.25 2.23 2.29 2.20

2.33 2.36 2.35 2.14 2.22

2.34

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GEL/USD GEL/EURO

5517.7

4917.0

5421.5

6388.8

7058.2

6839.5

7434.6

4541.6

4161.7

4592.4

5802.0

6311.1

6287.7

6847.0

33.4

31.6

30.1

30.5 31.4

29.3 29.6

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

mln

. G

EL

Budget Revenue Taxes Revenues as a % of GDP (RHS)

2,8

40

2,8

57

2,8

17

2,7

98

2,7

93

2,7

81

2,8

07

2,9

44

2,9

15

2,8

49

2,8

41

2,8

73

2,9

21

2,9

60

2,9

41

2,9

68

3,0

38

2,9

82

3,0

49

3,0

95

3,0

75

3,1

10

3,0

31

2,8

23

2,5

66

2,6

26

2,5

99

2,5

62

2,5

47

2,4

98

2,5

00

2,7

08

2,7

01

2,6

62

2,6

08

2,6

99

2,6

10

2,4

69

2,4

53

2,4

31

2,3

93

2,4

84

2,4

47

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

3,300

I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII I II III

IV V VI

VII

2012 2013 2014 2015

US

$ m

ln

Page 14: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Tax Policy

Reduced number of taxes from 21 to 6 (2004-2008)

Reduced tax rates

Taxes/Rates

• Personal Income Tax – 20%

• Corporate Income Tax – 15%

• VAT – 18%

• Excise Tax – Varies

• Import Tax – 0%, 5% or 12%

• Property tax – 1% on the self-assessed value of property

Special/preferential tax treatment for Micro and Small Enterprises

• Micro Business (turnover no more 30 000 GEL) – exempted from taxes

• Small Business (turnover no more 100 000 GEL) – pays 3% or 5% of taxed income

Page 15: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Current Account Balance

Current Account Balance

Source: National Bank of Georgia

181.6 416.2 359.0 523.9 688.5 1,060.4 967.5 1,098.5 1,328.7

1,407.6 1465.6 1431.5

-386.2 -356.3 -709.7

-1,175.5

-2,009.4

-2,813.3

-1134.3 -1,192.8 -1,840.6 -1854.5

-929.9 -1612.4

-5000.0

-4000.0

-3000.0

-2000.0

-1000.0

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

US

$.

mln

Goods Services Income, net Transfers, net Current Account

-386.2 -356.3 -709.7 -1,175.5

-2,009.4

-2,813.3

-1134.3 -1,192.8 -1,840.6 -1,854.5

-929.9 -1612.4

351.2 478.2

735.1 1502.5

2293.3 2881.8

1532.4 1226.6

2239.6 1807.2

780.7

1526.9

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-4,000.0

-3,000.0

-2,000.0

-1,000.0

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

US

$.

mln

CAD Total Private Capital Inflow (TPCI) CAD as a % of GDP

Page 16: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Public External Debt

Public External Debt, 2014– 4,157 US$ mln

PED breakdown by origin (million USD)

Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia

Long-term external funding boosting the

economy in short and long-term future

Total 3956 Armenia 13,5

Multilateral 2913 Uzbekistan 0,3

WB-IDA 1285,3 Ukraine 0,2

WB-IBRD 485,8 Kazakhstan 27,8

IFAD 30 China 3,9

IMF 169,3 Germany 296,2

EBRD 96,1 Kuwait 18,5

European Investment

Bank (EIB) 197,2 Netherlands

1,6

Asian Development Bank

(ADB) 604,7 Japan

139,4

Bilateral 741,7 United States 28,9

Austria 13,3 France 61,4

Azerbaijan 11,5 Government Bonds 500,0

Turkmenistan 0,2 Eurobonds 500,0

Turkey 22 External Guaranteed 3,0

Iran 9 Germany 3,0

Russia Federation 94 IMF 42,6

Share of Public External Debt in GDP

Public External Debt

34.5

26.8

21.1 16.8

23.5

31.7 33.6

28.8 27.6 27.2 26.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

1592 1502 1461 1541

2226 2694

3284 3608

3997 4086 4157

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

US

$.

mln

External Debt Change, %

Page 17: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Dynamics of Brussels Pledge ($4.5 billion) Implementation

Commitments by Sectors Brussels Pledge Update - Public &

Estimated Private Sectors

Commitments (signed) so far by Donors,

Public Sector Operations

Implementation/disbursement shall last until 2015, providing

low-cost stimulus to the economy and allowing to retain

policy/fiscal space.

Direct Budget Support

21%

IDPs 6%

Transport Infrastructure

17% Energy

Infrastructure 12%

Urban and Municipal

Infrastructure 15%

Private Sector 19%

Agriculture and other

10%

ADB 18%

WB 20%

Germany 8%

USG & EC 33%

EBRD 6%

EIB 5%

Japan 6%

Other 4%

DISBURSED $2.5 Billion

PLEDGED & COMMITTED $4.5 Billion

Page 18: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Entirely private owned since 1996

No restrictions on foreign ownership of banks

Robust Banking Sector

Source: National Bank of Georgia

In 2014 Georgia’s banking sector is represented by 20 commercial banks:

Page 19: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Banking Performance

Deposits and loans in 2014

Deposits – 12 425,5 mln.GEL

• National currency – 4 948,9 mln. GEL

• Foreign currency – 7 476,6 mln. GEL

Growth – by 20.8%

Loan – 12 478,5 mln.GEL

• Sectors – 6 353,9 mln. GEL

• Households – 6 124,6 mln. GEL

Growth – 23.4%

FDI in Financial Sector

• In 2014* FDI in financial sector – 78.1 mln. USD

• 6.1% of total FDI

Source: National Bank of Georgia

Deposits and Loans 2004-2014

FDI in Financial Sector

157.7 10.9 49.7

107.4

167.7 162.6 166.4

78.1

7.8

0.7

7.5

13.2 15.0

17.8 17.7

6.1

0

5

10

15

20

0

50

100

150

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

%

US

$ m

ln

FDI in Financial Sector Percent of total FDI

983

1538

2328

3511

3845

417

4

5818

7352

8203

10288

12425

942

1696

2629

4421 5793

4985

5946

7450

8372

1011

5 12

479

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

mln

. G

EL

Deposits Loans

Page 20: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Tourism

Arrivals of Non-resident Visitors

Tourism sector is characterized with growing tendency during last years

In 2014, number of visitors to Georgia amounted to 5 515 559 persons and increased by 2,3%

compared to the same period of the previous year

Source: Georgian National Tourism Administration

Country 2013 2014

EUROPE 5 168 046 5 354 633

AMERICAS 32 583 34 630

EAST ASIA/PACIFIC 121 649 81 301

MIDDLE EAST 63 063 38 764

AFRICA 5 024 4 109

OTHERS 1 938 2 122

Total 5 392 303 5 515 559

17.5%

52.0%

36.3% 37.8% 22.7%

16.3%

35.4% 38.9%

56.9%

21.8%

2.3% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

tho

usa

nd

pers

on

Arrivals Growth (%)

Page 21: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Turnover (2006 - 2014)

Output (2006 - 2014)

2014

Turnover – 46 141,2 mln. GEL (increased by 4.1%)

Output – 23 941,1 mln. GEL (increased by 1,6%)

Salaries – 980,5 GEL

Employment – 534 952 persons

Source: GEOSTAT

Enterprises Statistics

13.1 17.5

19.7 20.3 24.4

36.7

42.0 44.3 46.1

29.9 34.0

12.0

3.3

20.2

50.5

14.5

5.4 4.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

bil

lio

n G

EL

Turnover Change (%)

7.4 9.6 10.2 11.0

13.3

19.2

23.1 23.6 23.9

27.0 30.1

6.3 7.4

20.9

44.6

20.0

2.0 1.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

bil

lio

n G

EL

Turnover Change (%)

Page 22: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

2014

Turnover – 8 637,4 mln.GEL (increased by 7.4%)

Output – 7 633,1 mln.GEL (increased by 4.6%)

Industry in GDP ინ 2014*

Real Growth – 2.2%

Manufacturing – 2 674.3 mln. GEL (real growth – 3.9%)

Processing of products by households – 696.1 mln. GEL (real

growth – 1.1%)

Electricity, gas and water supply – 712.7 mln. GEL (real growth

- -2.8%)

Mining and Quarrying – 204.5 mln. GEL (real growth – 1.8%)

Output (2006 – 2014)

Turnover (2006 - 2014)

Source: GEOSTAT

Industry

3.2

4.4 4.6 4.4

5.5

7.2 7.6 8.0

8.6

0.0

35.1

6.3

-5.0

25.7 30.5

4.4 6.5 7.4

-8

0

8

16

24

32

40

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

bln

GE

L

Turnover Change (%)

2.8 3.6 3.8 3.8

4.8

6.4 6.9 7.3 7.6

21.6

28.9

6.7

-0.6

27.7 32.6

6.8 6.3 4.6

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-10123456789

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

bln

. G

EL

Output Change (%)

Page 23: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Doing Business 2015” (WB & IFC) – 15th

place (14th place in 2014)

Top Improver since 2005 in EE&CA and

globally with 37 institutional reforms

Georgia is among TOP 10 countries in following

areas:

• Registering Property - 1st place

• Dealing with Construction Permits – 3rd place

• Starting a Business – 5th place

• Getting Credit – 7th place

Doing Business, 2015

112

96

80

62

55

45

24

23

17

15

3

2

1

Georgia /2006

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Turkey

Armenia

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Georgia

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Singapure

Page 24: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Index of Economic Freedom 2015” (Heritage

Foundation) – 22nd place – Mostly Free

• 12th place in Europe (out of 43 countries in region)

Improved scores in: • Freedom from Corruption – up by 6.2 points

• Government Spending – up by 4.1 points

• Monetary Freedom – up by 4.3 points

• Business Freedom – up by 0.8 points

Index of Economic Freedom, 2015

“Economic Freedom of the World 2015” (Fraser

Institute) – 11th place (73rd place in 2004)

Improved scores in:

• Size of Government – 7.67 (up by 0.31 points)

• Legal System & Property Rights – 6.19 (up by 0.42

points)

• Freedom to trade internationally – 8.45 (up by 0.01

points)

Index of Economic Freedom, 2013

49.3

51.9

61.3

64.9

68.7

68.9

72.6

73.0

75.9

82.0

89.4

90.1

Ukraine 155

Russia 140

Azerbaijan 81

Turkey 64

Latvia 42

Armenia 41

Georgia 22

Lithuania 21

Estonia 11

Australia 3

Singapure 2

Hong Kong1 Free

(100-80)

mostly

free

(79.9-70)

mostly unfree

(59.9-50)

moderately

free

(69.9-60)

repressed

(49.9-0)

122 115

101 98

73 86

71 44

22 17

11 3 2 1

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Moldova

Georgia/2…

Turkey

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Armenia

Georgia

New Zealand

Singapore

Hong Kong

Page 25: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Corruption Perception Index 2014”

(Transparency International) – 50th

place (up from 133rd in 2004)

Improved positions because of:

• Highly effective reforms in earning public confidence

• Highly effective steps in improving country’s

international image

• Fallen of petty corruption

Corruption Perception Index, 2014

142

136

133

126

94

64

50

43

39

26

3

1

1

Ukraine

Russia

(Georgia, 2004)

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Turkey

Georgia

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Finland

New Zealand

Denmark

Page 26: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Global Enabling Trade Index 2014” (World Economic Forum) – 36th place amongst 138

countries (up from 38 in 2012)

• Market Access – 13rd position

• Border Administration – 35th position

• Infrastructure – 71th position

• Operating environment – 48th position

Global Enabling Trade, 2014

Paying Taxes 2015 – the Global Picture’s „Ease

of Paying Taxes“ – 38th place out of 189

countries (up from 29 in 2014)

“Best Countries for Business 2015” (Forbes) - 47th

place out of 146 countries (50th place in 2012)

1

28

36

41

44

46

53

77

83

92

105

Singapore

Estonia

Georgia

Latvia

Lithuania

Turkey

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Ukraine

Moldova

Russia

• Trade Freedom – 6th place

• Monetary Freedom – 52nd place

• Property Rights – 105th place

• Innovation – 120rh place

• Technology – 66th place

• Red Tape – 5th place

• Investor Protection – 42nd place

• Corruption – 46th place

• Personal Freedom – 67th place

• Tax Burden – 34th place

• Total Tax rate – 16,4

• Time to comply (hours) – 362

• Number of Payments – 5

Page 27: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Bertelsmann Transformation 2014” (Bertelsmann

Foundation)

Status Index, 2014

Management Index, 2014

Status Index – 48th place (up from 58th in 2012)

• Political Transformation – 52nd place

• Economic Transformation – 57th place

• Management Index – 41st place (up from 53rd

place in 2012)

1

3

7

12

20

45

48

57

62

77

88

Taiwan

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

Turkey

Moldova

Georgia

Ukraine

Armenia

Russia

Azerbaijan

1

4

8

12

14

41

47

69

87

100

104

Taiwan

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

Turkey

Georgia

Moldova

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Page 28: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Georgia in International Ratings

“Fitch Ratings 2015”

• Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer

Default Ratings (IDRs) – “BB-" upgraded

from “B+”

• Short-term foreign currency IDR – “B”

• Country Ceiling – “BB”

• Unsecured debt - “BB-“ (In 2010 - “B+”)

• Outlook - Stable

“Standard and Poor’s Ratings 2015”

• Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer

Default Rating (IDR) – “BB-" upgraded from

“B+”

• Short-Term Sovereign credit ratings – ‘B’

• Transfer & Convertibility assessment – ‘BB’

• Outlook - Stable

“Moody's Investors Service 2014”

• Not-Prime foreign and local currency issuer rating

(affirmed) – Ba3

• Outlook - Positive

Georgia’s Sovereign Ratings

Page 29: Georgian Economic Outlook€¦ · Georgian Exports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Commodity Group Georgian Imports by Country 19.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.4% 7.2% 5.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.1%

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Useful Links