german energy policy views from outside - carsten rolle
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German Norwegian Energy Forum Conference 2012 in BerlinTRANSCRIPT
German Energy Policy – Views from the Outside
Dr. Carsten Rolle Executive Director
German Norwegian Energy ForumBerlin, 23 October 2012
Who we are - World Energy Council (WEC)
Mission Statement since 1924: "To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people"
Largest impartial global energy network
Founded in 1923, based in London
More than 90 Member Countries
Representing the entire energy spectrum
Hosting high-level events / publishing authoritative studies / facilitating the world's energy policy dialogue
223. October 2012
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German „Energiewende“ – a blueprint for the world?
What are the current challenges for the German energy transition?
What are the potential solutions?
German Energy Policy – Views from Outside
German „Energiewende“ - Targets
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Survey among WEC-network
Feedback from 21 Countries14 within Europe7 outside of Europe
10 questions in the following areas
1) How feasible are the objectives of the “Energiewende”?
2) Which national/international consequences are expected?
3) Could the GER approach serve as a blueprint for the world?
”Energiewende” – Global Survey
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”Energiewende” – Global Survey
No expert believes that GER will reach all its objectives of the energy concept in time. But: 67 % of the experts believe that GER, will generally reach its objectives partly or with delay.
Short-/medium-term a weakening of GER’s economic power is expected by 76 %. But: Long-term 33 % expect a strengthening.
71 % expect in the midterm a significant additional increase of electricity prices in their own national markets.
62 % expect increased threats for Europe’s security of supply.
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GER energy policy - blueprint for the world?
GER shouldn’t be a blueprint for the world
81 % reject that the GER energy policy approach should be a blueprint for the world
CO2-goals
Potential elements to copy
62 % of the experts agree that some elements of the GER approach could be replicated in their countries
No element worth being copied
RES-goals
other elements, partly not specified
Structure of electricity generation capacities in Germany
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The installed capacity of renewable energies will nearly triple until 2030. A big part accounts for wind power and photovoltaic systems.
The installed capacity of coal power plants will decrease prospectively. Power plants under construction will still be realized. But a further expansion would no longer be cost-effective.
Despite new construction projects, capacities of lignite power plants will also decline in the following years.
Prognos 2011
Major challenge: integration of renewable energies into the power supply system
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DRL Leitstudie 2011
Major challenge: integration of renewable energies into the power supply system
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Installed capacity of renewable energy, in GW
Annual maximum load
Annual minimum load
DRL Leitstudie 2011
Yearly surpluses in Germany
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-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
20122020203020402050
Surplus due to fluctuating inflow
Essential dispatchable power generation
M
Potential solutions for the integration of renewables: storage facilities
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Different energy storage systems for different applications
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International hydropower
storage
Facing the challanges - Regional interconnection to balance demand and supply
Can international hydroelectric storages contributeto the German energy transformation?
Realistic assessment of the challanges by the transformationthe storage potentials available in Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Austriahow these potentials can be utilized
National and international partners involved toverify the assessments
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German Energy Policy – Views from the Outside
Thank you!
Dr. Carsten RolleExecutive Director
World Energy Council - German Gertraudenstrasse 20D-10178 BerlinGermany
Tel: +49-30-2061-6750Fax: +49-30-2028-2595Mail: [email protected]
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