german energy transition workshop-raouf al dabbas
TRANSCRIPT
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The German Energy Transition
How Does It Work and What Does It Mean for Jordan?
25 September 2012
Days Inn Hotel Amman
Status Quo and Potential
Raouf Dabbas
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Electrical Energy Consumption
Water
Pumping
15%Street lighting
2%
Industrial
27%Commercial
17%
Household
39%
2008
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Industrial
Street lighting
Transport
Houshold
Commercial
Water pumping
`30%
20%30%
20%20%
Energy saving per sector:
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66%
1%
32%
1%
Oil & Oil Products Renewable Energy
Natural Gas Imported Electricity
Primary Energy
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0100020003000400050006000700080009000
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Domestic Commercial IndustrialService Water pumping Street lighting
Sectorial Electricity Consumption Forecast (GWh)
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12079
16773
13252
0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
years
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
Fo
rec
as
t (1
00
0 t
oe
)
Total Primary Energy
Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency measures
Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
Hypothetical Energy Use
Primary Energy Demand Forecast & the Contribution of EE and RE in Energy Mix
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Where do we go from here?
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Transport Industry Household Commercial Waterpumping
Streetlighting
1,037
829
642
450
593
474
391
313
86 60 14 10
Savings of 20 - 30% of final energy consumption per sector represents a reduction in
annual energy cost of Jordan of about 620 million JOD*ca. -200
Co
st o
f en
ergy
co
nsu
med
20
08
in m
illio
n J
OD
Cost of energy consumed inmillion JOD 2008
Cost of energy consumed in millionJOD incl. energy-efficiency measuresto save x% of 2008 consumptionca. -190
ca. -120
ca. -80
ca. -25 ca. -5
-x m.JOD
Cost savings in million JOD dueto sector-specific (NERC)energy savings**
* Internal estimations (Ministry of Environment/ CIM)** Calculated by applying the sectors’ share in final energy consumption to the total cost of consumed energy (2008=2,763 Million JOD; MEMR-Facts & Figures)
-20%energy savings
-30%energy savings
-20%energy savings
-20%energy savings
-30%energy savings
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Direct Solar Irradiance in EUMENA in kWh/m²/y
1 km² is enough to desalinate 165,000 m³/day.50 km x 50 km are needed to avoid the MENA water deficit in 2050.
Solar irradiance 2400 kWh/m²/year x 10 % CSP efficiency / 4 kWh/m³ RO power consumption / 365 days/year = 0.165 m³/m²/day
powerwaterDesert area required for:
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Annual average windspeed :
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The Green Economy Sectors in Jordan
A system of economic activities related to the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services that result in improved human well-being over the long term, while not exposing future generations to environmental risks and ecological scarcities.
Agriculture Building Cities
Energy Finance Forest
Manufacturing
Tourism Transport Waste Water Modeling
Enabling Conditions
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Policy recommended incentives
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Thank you