getting climate information to farmers: progress and gaps
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Progress and gaps
Getting climate information to farmers:
Logo Logo LogoDr Robert ZougmoréAfrica Program Leader
CCAFS webinar on Climate Change and Agricultural Development, 1 February 2017, Portugal
Outline1. Climate variability and extremes:
impacts on agriculture2. Approaches and practices of Climate
information services3. Progress on CIS dissemination for
farmers decision makingCIS use and impact in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Senegal
4. Current gaps
• Temperature rise of ≈0.6-0.7 °C since late 70's• Largely higher than the global increase• Sea level rise of 18 cm during the 20th century
I
For the last 100 years: Unequivocal temperature rise
Anom
alie
de
tem
péra
ture
(°C)
Anom
alie
de
tem
péra
ture
(°C)
Global
Anom
alie
de
tem
péra
ture
(°C)
Anom
alie
de
tem
péra
ture
(°C)
After Benoit SARR, Aghrymet
Climate variability & change : facts!
To 2090, taking 18 climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Length of growing season is likely to decline..
Responses to variability and change
DecadesDays
Res
pons
es
Sho
rt te
rm
man
agem
ent
Long
term
A
dapt
atio
n
Tactical decisions
Seasonal planning
Strategic planning
Land preparation, planting, irrigation, fertilisation
Land allocation, Crop livestock mixes, varieties
Enterprise and livelihood shifts
How climate information services are disseminated to farmers
North GhanaClimate services delivered through mobile phones (ESOKO)
Climate services delivered through PICSA (Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture)
SenegalCCAFS scientists collaborated with the Meteorological Agency to develop downscaled CIS and to communicate them to farmers through radios programs and mobile phones
North Burkina
CIS communicated to farmers through rural radio programs and training workshops
7000 farmers 1.2 million farmers 7 million farmers
Seasonal forecast crop variety varieties
Onset forecast farm preparation optimum planting
Nowcasting flooding saving life (thunder)Daily forecast use of fertilizer / pesticideTen-day forecast weeding, field workUpdating seasonal forecast second cropping
Ten-day forecast optimum harvesting
period rain during dry season
Before During cropping season Maturity/end season
CCAFS working with country partners to develop downscaled seasonal and weather forecasts
0102030405060708090
100
65
86
6471
% fa
rmer
s
N = 462
In Ghana, access and use of CIS influences farmers’ decision-making
0102030405060708090
10091 89
78
94
% fa
rmer
sIn Ghana, access and use of CIS may improve farm productivity and household food availability for poor and marginal farmers
N = 462
Climate-informed farmers change their farming practices
Defining the size of cropping area
Date of hoeing
Selecting variety
Date of weeding
Selecting cropping site
Selecting crop
Date of plowing
Date of sowing
Date of application of NPK
Date of harvesting
Date of pests control
Date of land preparation
Date application of urea
Date of application of organic manure
Date of threshing
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
56
56
51
40
39
36
35
32
30
21
19
13
12
10
4
Percentage
Changes in farm practices in response to climate forecasts (%)
Effect of climate information on cowpea yield-CSV BF
Exposed Not exposed0
100200300400500600700800900 847
685
Yie
ld (k
g/ha
)
N=49 N=27
Effect of climate information on cowpea crop revenue – CSV BF
Exposed Not exposed Exposed Not exposedInput Gross margin
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
43706
63128
56170
33797
FCFA
/ha
WTP in F CFA for CI in the CSVs - Burkina FasoFarmers are willing to pay for Climate information in CSV - Burkina Faso
Clim
ate inform
ation
Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting
Local working Group (Issue EWS)
FarmersAgriculture
LivestockLocal
authority
Extensionsservices Forestry
Rural radio
Seed growers
Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin
Stakeholders : experts and decision m
akersC
omm
unity
Pest DiseaseControl
Red Cross
Climate information up-scaled across Senegal
Impact of climate information services in Senegal
• Through 82 rural radios, mobile phone SMS, seasonal climate forecasts disseminated at national level to potentially reaching 7,4 millions rural people
• Climate information is now considered as an agricultural input in Senegal
Current gaps• Lack of complete climate data base in countries
To generate village-level tailored CIS To cover other sub-sectors (Livestock, Fisheries)
• Public-private business models for CIS disseminationTo enable scalable, sustainable climate service dissemination to
farmersTo take on board specific needs and co-produce differing needs
of men, women and the youth• Weak capacity of CIS stakeholders:
Capacity of met agencies to technically develop salient CIS Capacity of public and private sector actors to organise
sustainable and large-scale dissemination schemes and mechanisms of CIS
Capacity of CIS users to understand and make the best and beneficial use of CIS for risk management