ghg emissions and mitigation potentials in …...objectives (1) to estimate and evaluate global ghg...
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GHG Emissions and Mitigation Potentials in Agriculture
Tomoko HASEGAWAGraduate school of Engineering, Kyoto University
15,16 February,2009,11th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
F-gases1%N2O
8%CH4
14%
CO2(other)2.8%
CO2 fossilfuel use
57%
CO2
(deforestation, etc)17%
residential aland
commercial8%
transport13%
energysupply26% industry
19%
deforestation 17%
agriculture14%
waste andwastewater
3%
Contribution Ratio to Global Warming• Agriculture accounts for ...
– 14% of total GHG emission.– 50% of total CH4 emission and 60% of N2O emission in
2005 (IPCC, 2007).
contribution ratio by Gascontribution ratio by Sector
Agriculture
スライド 2
h3 単位を,MtCO2eqに!長谷川 知子, 2008/01/27
Objectives(1) To estimate and evaluate global GHG emissions and
reduction potentials in Agriculture(2) To specify effective technologies, regions and emission
sources with high reduction potentials
To evaluate GHG emissions and reduction potentials, we need to integrate the relating events such as…
agriculturalproduction
economic development
population growth
changing food needs
production efficiency
technical innovationGHG
emission
climate change
GHG reduction technology
Future populationscenario
Exogenous variables
Agriculture Trade Model
Methodology
World regions
determines combination and stocks ofGHG reduction technologies
Enduse Model
• Model is used for estimation.
Future economic scenario
GHG emissionsReduction Potentials
Top-down
Bottom
-up
Production of agricultural commodities
Agricultural Trade Model (ATM)• Structure: Partial equilibrium model
1200 functions and equations• Input: Population and GDP• Output: Production of agricultural commodities• Calibration term: 1971 - 2003• Estimation term: 2004 - 2030• Region: 23 world regions
World price
Shipping cost Tax and tariff
Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price
Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP
Consumption
Stocks
23 world regions
Endogenousvariable
P
Q0
World Market
P
Q0
Domestic Market
Net trade
Production
Structure
Exogenousvariable
World price
Shipping cost Tax and tariff
Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price
Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP
Consumption
Stocks
23 world regions
P
Q0
World Market
P
Q0
Domestic Market
Net trade
Production
23 world regions are connected
through world market.
Endogenousvariable
Exogenousvariable
World price is decidedin order to take balance
in the world.
Structure
World price
Shipping cost Tax and tariff
Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price
Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP
Consumption
Stocks
23 world regions
P
Q0
World Market
P
Q0
Domestic Market
Net trade
Production
Structure
Endogenousvariable
Exogenousvariable
Consumer price and producer price are related to world price.
Policies, tax and tariff are given exogenously.
World price
Shipping cost Tax and tariff
Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price
Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP
Consumption
Stocks
23 world regions
Endogenousvariable
P
Q0
World Market
P
Q0
Net trade
Production
Structure
Exogenousvariable
Production function
Consumption function
Functions: Production and Consumption
• Production function
• Consumption (Con.) function
• Import and export are also decided by prices.
, , , , 1 , ,( , )i r t i r t j r tProduction f Production Producer Price
, ,
, , , ,
, ,
, , , ,
.
( , , ).
( , )
i r t
i r t r t r t
i r t
i r t i r t
Food Con
f Consumer price GDPcap PopulationFeed Con
f Consumer price Livestock production
World price
Shipping cost Tax and tariff
Producer subsidyConsumer subsidy Intermediate price
Producer pricePopulation Consumer priceGDP
Consumption
Stocks
23 world regions
P
Q0
World Market
P
Q0
Domestic Market
Net trade
Production
Production, consumption and trade are calculated to take balance in one region.
Structure
Endogenousvariable
Exogenousvariable
Balance Equations• Domestic balance equation
• World balance equation
, , , ,
, , , , , ,
i r t i r t
i r t i r t i r t
Production ImportConsumption Export Stock
, , , ,i r t i r tr r
Export Import
Future populationscenario
Exogenous variables
Agriculture Trade Model
Methodology
world regions
decides combination and stocks ofGHG reduction technologies
Enduse Model
• Model is used for estimation.
Future economic scenario
GHG emissionsReduction Potentials
Top-down
Bottom
-up
Production of agricultural commodities
23 world regions
Technology 1Technology 2Technology 3
GHG emissions/Reduction potentials
Enduse Model
Production
Technology Database
• Structure: Dynamic model• Input: Agricultural production• Outputs: GHG emissions and Reduction potentials• Calculates combination and stocks of GHG reduction technologies
in order to minimize total reduction cost.
Croplands Livestock animals
Technology 4Technology 5Technology 6
Reduction Cost → Minimum
Technology Stock ChangeA number of technology (tech. ) is changed by 1) exchange
and 2) introduction.
② Introduced Technology
①Exchange
Tech2
Stock (T)=Stock(T-1) –①exchanged tech.(T) + ②Introduced tech.(T)
Technology change is calculated in order to minimize total reduction cost. Te
chno
logy
sto
cks
Tech1
2000 ・・・ T-1 T ・・・ 2030 [year]
The number of livestock animal, orThe area of croplands
・・・・
Tech
1
Application
Objective• 23 world regions• 2000-2030• Population: medium estimates of UN(2006)• GDP: Akashi (2009)
Emission SourcesEnteric fermentation
Manure managementCropland and Soils
Rice paddy
GasesCH4
CH4, N2ON2O
CH4, N2O
0100020003000400050006000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CH 4
+N2O
Em
issi
on [M
tCO
2eq]
Cropland and Soils N2ORice paddy CH4Manure management N2OManure management CH4Enteric fermentation CH4
Baseline Emission in 2000-2030• World GHG emission will increase by 1.4 times by 2030.• In 2030,emissions from croplands and livestock enteric
fermentation account for 40% and 30% of it respectively.• Emission from livestocks will increase at high growth rate.• Emission from rice paddy will decrease.
40%
30%
1.4 times3959MtCO2eq 5591MtCO2eq
h2
スライド 18
h2 C:¥GAMS¥Emission Model vol2¥output¥ReducionPotential長谷川 知子, 2008/08/14
GHG Emission in 2000, 2030
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
This
stu
dyU
SE
PA A B C
FAO
This
stu
dyU
SE
PA A B C
FAO
GH
G E
mis
sion
[MtC
O 2eq
] .
Rice paddy CH4Cropland and Soils N2OManure management N2OManure management CH4Enteric fermentation CH4
in 2000 in 2030
• GHG Emission of this study is middle of other estimates.• Cropland and Soils and Enteric Fermentations occupy
high contribution ratio.
IMAGE2.1 IMAGE2.1
Which is Effective Source?In 2030 Reduction Potential by Source
• In 2030, total max. reduction potential is 1403 Mt CO2eq.• Technologies for rice paddy is good.• Technologies for enteric fermentation is not good.
Reduction Potentials [MtCO2eq] Marginal Abatement Cost [US$/tCO2eq]Emission sources <0 <20 <50 <100 >100Enteric fermentation CH4 0 0 3 41 255Manure management CH4 0 95 98 110 345Manure management N2O 0 56 57 62 205Rice paddy CH4 0 367 381 381 381Cropland and Soils N2O 148 198 198 198 217Total 148 716 737 793 1403
35% of total GHG emission from agriculture in 2000.
367 381 381 381
0 3 41 255
Where is Effective Region?In 2030 Reduction Potential by region
• Reduction Potential in China, India and USA is large.• Measurements in there regions take comparative low costs.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
JapanEU15USA
other developedChinaIndia
transition countriesother developing
GHG reduction potentials [MtCO2eq]
<00-2020-5050-100>100
Marginalreduction cost[US$/tCO2eq]
0 20 40 60 80 100
Anaerobic Digestion -Centralised plantAnaerobic Digestion -Farmscale plant
Covered lagoonDaily spread of manure
Slowing down anaerobic decompositionPribiotics
Propionate precursorsAmmonium sulfate
Midseason drainageOff-season strawShallow flooding
Upland riceAddition of Phosphogypsum
Rice Straw CompostDirect Wet Seeding
Alternative flooding/DrainageSpreader maintenance
Fertilizer Free ZoneOptimize distribution geometry
Nitrogen inhibitorConvert fertilizational tillage to no-till
Split fertilizationReduce fertilization to 70%Reduce fertilization to 80%Reduce fertilization to 90%
Sub-optimal fertilizer application
Average annual reduction potentials [MtCO2eq/yr]
<0<20<50<100>100
Marginal Abatement Cost[US$/tCO2eq]
What is Effective Technology ?
Good but expensive
Not good
The highest economic efficiency
ConclusionWe introduced a model to estimate GHG emissions and reduction potentials in agriculture. We showed you an application to estimate and specify effective technologies, high reduction potential regions and emission sources.
• Total non-CO2 emission from agriculture is about 3959 MtCO2eq in 2000.
• Major emission source is Cropland and Soils.• In 2030, the maximum global reduction potential is
expected to be 1403 MtCO2eq(35% of emission in 2000). • China and India have major reduction potentials.• The reduction technology with most economically
efficient is expected to be "daily spread of manure ".
Thank you for your attention