Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

GHG Emissions Reduction Targets for International Shipping

Maritime Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism,

Japan

参考資料 1

UNFCCC

2015

Adoption

2020

Submission of NDC*by each party

2023

GlobalStocktake*

*NDC: Nationally determined contribution *Global stocktake: review process every 5 years

Submitted NDCs

EU △40% by 2030 China △65%/GDP by 2030

Japan △26% by 2030 India △35%/GDP by 2030

Canada △30% by 2030 Brazil △43% by 2030

~2100

GHGBalance*

*GHG balance: anthropogenic emissions = removals

Adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015

Long-term goal• Below 2℃ above pre-industrial• Pursuing efforts to limit 1.5℃

1

International aviation sector

2010

CO

2(M

t)• 2% (efficiency) every year• Maintain below 2020 level (volume)

2020 2030 2040

BiofuelsMBMs

2020 level

Global targets

Adopted global GHG reduction targets and measures including MBM in 2013

2

International shipping

International shipping needs GHG reduction target

• EEDI for new ships (2013-)• SEEMP for new & existing ships (2013-)• Data collection system for new & existing ships (2019-)

IMO’s approach

Yet, no GHG reduction target in international shippingCould be regarded as a “loophole”IMO should show its commitment to the world

3

Setting the targets for International Shipping

Operation; Design & retrofitting; and Alternative fuels.

Paris agreement • well below 2℃• pursuing efforts 1.5 ℃

Level of contributionto climate change

Maximum achievable level of GHG reduction

satisfying both requirements

Global GHG reduction targets with the highest possible ambition

Targets should be ambitious, but achievable

4

GHG reduction Short- to Mid-term Target (-2030)

5

Short- to mid-term goal (Japan’s proposal)

Reduction target for shipping sector should be based on efficiency

[GHG emission] = [transport volume] × [efficiency]

Can be improved by the effort of the maritime sector

Out of control for the maritime sector

6

Short- to mid-term goal (Japan’s proposal)

Short- to mid-term goal: △40% (efficiency) by 2030

70

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2em

issi

ons

Mt

Target emissoin level(Japan's scenario)

△40%(efficiency)

Base year (2008)

Contributions by EEDI upgraded new ships: △17% (efficiency)

New ships

80

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2em

issi

ons

Mt

Pre-EEDI

2013 2015 2020 2025

△17%

New ships

LNG-fueled ships

Air lubrication Energy recovery

Hull & propulsion improvement

Continuous R&Ds necessary to meet EEDI upgrades

Wind power

9

Existing ships

Retrofitting + Maintenance + Operation: △28% (efficiency)

100

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 em

issi

ons

Mt

Target emissoin level(Japan's scenario)

△28%

Operational measures

Maintenance and monitoringPropulsion system upgrade

Retrofitting & Maintenance

Existing ships

Speed reduction Weather routing

Costly and limited options

Potential without substantial investments

11

Optimum speedreduction

Speed

CO

2/ t

onne

-mile

Optimum speed

Design speed

Existing ships

Speed reduction has potential, but has limit

Design speed

Constraints Social impact

Fleet increase

Safety

Other environmental risk

12

Summary (-2030)

In the short- to mid-term, 40% (efficiency) is challenging,

but achievable in 2030.

• 40% = EEDI (design & LNG) + retrofitting + maintenance + operation

13

GHG reduction Long-term Target (-2060)

14

Long-term goal (Japan’s proposal)

Long-term goal by 2060: △90% (efficiency) (=△50% (volume))

150

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

CO

2em

issi

ons

Mt

Base year (2008)

2008 level

50% (volume)over 2008

90% (efficiency)over 2008

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

CO

2em

issi

ons

Mt

Base year (2008)

Alternative fuels(e.g. Hydrogen, biofuels)

2008 level

New alternative fuels

82%

Not achievable by conventional approaches (technical & operational)

Drastic fuel shifts are necessary - over-80% carbon-reduced fuels(zero-carbon fuel available?)

16

Challenges R&D

Safety & risk assessments

Legal frameworks

Supply chain

Land infrastructure

Fleet replacement

Fossil fuel

New fuel

Carbon intensityof the fuels

82%

New fuels involve challenges

New alternative fuels

17

Long-termgoal

2030 20602018R&Ds

Developinglegal frameworks

Safety & risk assessments

Developing supply chain & land infrastructure

Fleet replacement

Preparatory stage(by 2030)

Implementation stage(2030-2060)

New alternative fuels

Years are needed for fuel shift

Design, contract, building, delivery

18

In principle, reduction target for shipping sector should be based on efficiency.

But volume target would be appropriate for the long term.

Because

90% efficiency reduction target is not achievable by conventional approaches by the shipping sector;

mostly depends on readiness of alternative fuel; and

volume target can show the level of contribution to the global GHG reduction.

Long-term target could be based on volume

Long-term goal (Japan’s proposal)

19

Summary (-2060)

In the long-term50% (volume) is challenging,

but achievable in 2060.

• 50% = technology + regulation + infrastructure + fleet replacement

Fuel shift

20

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

MtC

O2-

eq

Avoided fossil fuel demand

Average capacity growth

High efficiency: new ships

High efficiency: retrofits

Wind assistance

Advanced biofuels

IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2017

Source: International Energy Agency (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, OECD/IEA, Paris

Shipping, 2DS/B2DS

2DS

B2DS

• 2-Degree Scenario (2DS)• Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS)

21

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

MtC

O2-

eq

Avoided fossil fuel demand

Average capacity growth

High efficiency: new ships

High efficiency: retrofits

Wind assistance

Advanced biofuels

IEA Energy Technology Perspective 2017

Shipping, 2DS/B2DS

2DS

B2DSJapan’s proposal50% (volume) by 2060

50% (volume) by 2060 is within the range of below 2℃ goal

• 2-Degree Scenario (2DS)• Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS)

22Source: International Energy Agency (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives 2017, OECD/IEA, Paris

Summary

Global GHG reduction target with the highest possible ambition

1. Short- to mid-term target• 40% (efficiency) by 2030 (over 2008)

2. Long-term target• 50% (volume) by 2060 (over 2008)

23

Emission scenarios (Japan’s proposal)

240

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080

CO

2em

issi

ons

Mt

Base year (2008) Short- to mid-term target year (2030)

Long-term target year (2060)

2080 2090 2100

50% emissionsreduction from 2008

Decarbonization?

Years needed for fleet replacement

3,561Mt(△90%)

efficiency648Mt(△40%)

efficiency

Development of new technologies, regulations and infrastructure for new alternative fuels

2008 level

Emission scenarios (proposals to ISWG-GHG 2)

250

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080

CO

2em

issi

ons

Mt

Base year (2008) Target year 3(2060)

2080 2090 2100

Target year 1(2030)

Target year 2(2050)

ICS et al (1)2008 level (volume)

Japan△40% (efficiency) by 2030

Marshall et alZero emission by 2035

Belgium et al△70% (volume) and△90% (efficiency) by 2050

Japan△50% (volume) by 2060

ICS et al (2)△50% (efficiency) by 2050

ICS et al scenario (1)

De-carbonization

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

Thank you.