gibbs & cía. s.a.c. · commodity prices fall sharply through early 2009 commodity price...
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Gibbs & Cía. S.A.C.Lloyd´s Agent since 1911
Jaime Risopatrón V. Managing Director
London Conference October 2009Presentation
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WORLD CRISIS AND EFFECTS ON TRADE & CLAIMS
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World production collapsesGlobal IP m/m % Growth
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Commodity prices fall sharply through early 2009 Commodity price indices, current U.S. dollars, 2000=100
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Industrialized countries and emerging economies stock markets indexes
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WORLD GDP GROWTH
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
% World
World 3,1 -1,4 2,5
2008 2009 2010
International Monetary Fund
WORLD GDP GROWTH
-2-101234
% World
World 3 -1,7 2,8
2008 2009 2010
World Bank
Projection world GDP by:
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Index of world export volume
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81,0
51,065,2
87,192,4
70,8
0
20
40
60
80
100
Fisrt World War GreatDepression
Second WorldWar
First Oil Crisis Second OilCrisis
Actual Crisis
%
Percentage of the world GDP involved in recessionduring the last century
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World commerce evolution in principal crisis(Level prior to crisis = 100)
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Sharp declines IP across the world, especially incountries especialized in investment goodsIndustrial Production, % Change, January 2009 v/s July 2008
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-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
%
Latin America and the CaribbeanChile
Latin America and theCaribbean
12,3 15,9 -25 19 21 -19,5
Chile 15,3 -1,8 -23,2 22,6 30,8 -21
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009Exports Imports
Latin America and the Caribbeanevolution of commerce (Goods)
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Latin America: Trade Performance by Subregions(Percentage)
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Latin America: Trade Performance by Subregions(Percentage)
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Crisis effects in Chile&
In the Insurance Market
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Chile’s export revenues collapseUS$ Million
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4,70
3,20
4,50
-2,00
5,604,60
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
-
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (p) 2010 (p)
% % Variation
Chile GDP
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Effects in ChileanInsurance Market
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1,12%
4,68%
7,67%
-2,06%
-4,01%
-22,59%
-2,11%
-5,00%
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
-25,00%
-20,00%
-15,00%
-10,00%
-5,00%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
MUS$ Jun. 2008 MUS$ Jun. 2009 Real Variation %
MUS$ Jun. 2008 116.631 168.253 263.568 52.121 34.837 71.749 48.980 295.442
MUS$ Jun. 2009 117.940 164.786 252.990 40.345 36.468 70.238 52.739 280.664
Real Variation % 1,12% -2,06% -4,01% -22,59% 4,68% -2,11% 7,67% -5,00%
Fire Earthquake Motor Marine Liability Personal AccidentCompulsory Motor
SOAP Others
Direct Premium P&C June 2008 - June 2009
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Direct Loss Ratio(Percentage)
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
Inland Transit
Marine Transit
Inland Transit 61,59 54,00 60,82Marine Transit 50,26 25,97 56,61
2007 2008 2009
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Effects in our BusinessAs Marine cSurveyors
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Chile Cargo Exports Tonnage Variation 1st Semester 2008 & 2009
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0 6.000.000 12.000.000 18.000.000
Total Tonnage13.872.791
17.572.447
Jan - May 2008
Jan - May 2009
Chile Cargo Imports Tonnage Variation - 21,05%
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Number of Calling of National & International'sShips (- 9%)
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TYPES OF CLAIMS
- More pilferage claims due to high unemployment.
- Slight increase in lorries highjaking, ( but still is not a big issue in Chile).
- Consignees are more reluctant to accept small damages.
- Through our strategic alliance with Mclarens Young Chilewe have seen in Commercial Line an increase in fraud cases.
- The number of Fidelity and Credit Insurace claims is higher.
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0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Sales
239.000
145.000
Sales 2008 Projection 2009
Motor Vehicles Sales Falls 40% in National Market
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Number of Motor Vehicles Imported at San Antonio PortUp to July
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Vehicles Inspected at Port up to July (-81,8%)
40.135
28.733
5.100
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
2007 2008 2009
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2009
2008
2007
Cars at Ports Arrivals
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Stock at Yards
2008
2009
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1045
1243
798
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2007 2008 2009
2007
2008
2009
Number of Cargo Inspections up to July (-35,8%)
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- Reduction in Exports and Imports of Goods
- Less number of cars imported.
- Decrease of Vessels Callings at Ports.
- Fall of vehicles inspected.
- Less Number of surveys requested.
- Decrease in Marine and Motor Direct Premium.
Summary of Crisis Effect in our Business in Chile
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FORECASTS
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53,3
46,3
45,7
50,8
48,1
48,9
53,2
42,6
45,2
47,8
47,9
44,8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
China - PMI
Euro-zone - PMI
Germany - PMI
UK - PMI
France - PMI
USA - ISM
Points
June PointsJuly Points
June Points 53,2 42,6 45,2 47,8 47,9 44,8
July Points 53,3 46,3 45,7 50,8 48,1 48,9
China - PMI Euro-zone - PMI
Germany - PMI
UK - PMI France - PMI USA - ISM
Manufacturing Activity Index 2009
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2008 and1st half 2009
World Recession
Going deep down butalive like this whale
2009 (2nd half) )
Slow recuperation like a turtle movement.
World GDP -1.5%
2010
As world GDP + 2,5% Depending on China, India and the others G20 economies….we see good sign of recovery….
Conclusion
but still are some clouds in the horizon .
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THANKS
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Bibliography:
http://www.eclac.org: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Document: Despite Crisis Latin America and the Caribbean Avoid Protectionism
www.worldbank.org
http://www.ccs.cl: SCC Santiago Chamber of Commerce
http://www.imf.org: IMF International Monetary Fund
http://aach.cl: Chile’s Insurer’s Association
http://www.mundomaritimo.cl: Harbour Companies