gifted presentation mike nicholson, senior director of research and evaluation
TRANSCRIPT
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Gifted PresentationMike Nicholson, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation
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Fundamental Consideration of Growth
• Growth = Observed - Baseline
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Mean Gain Model• Because the prior year’s scale is consistent with the current year’s, value-added
can be figured in terms of gain.
• Though superficial observations may assume this methodology is a simple pre-test / post-test algorithm, further study of the approach reveal similar rigor as the SOAR process.
• How often do schools have students who never move or who always have complete test records?
• Students with more complete testing histories count more in the estimated yearly means.
Baseline Observed Growth
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Scaled Score Units for Expressing Growth• If the distributions of achievement across grades within a
subject area are generally equivalent, then the units for reporting growth can remain in scaled scores.
– The inference is that for students to maintain their place in the distribution of achievement, no matter their starting point, the progress they would need to make is the same
Low Achiever’s needed growth to maintain position across years
High Achiever’s needed growth to maintain position across years
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Normal Curve Equivalent
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Fixing the Growth Standard
Student Takes Test
Test score is converted to state NCE, given the conversion values of the fixed year.
1 2 3
New NCE is compared to prior year’s NCE to estimate growth.
Growth=new NCE – prior NCE
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Viewing a school report in a mean gain model
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Viewing a school report in a mean gain model
Baseline
Observed
School Effect
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Viewing a school report in a mean gain model
Baseline
Observed
School Effect
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Upward Shed Pattern
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Reverse TeePee Pattern
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TeePee Pattern
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Downward Shed Pattern
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Copyright ©2006. Battelle for Kids.
How does a student’s growth rate compare to other groups of students?
Student Report
SAS Institute Inc.Used with permission.
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School ASchool B
School D
School F
School H
School J
School L
School N
School P
School C
School E
School G
School I
School K
School M
School O
SAMPLE
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Student predictions to Advanced on 5th grade OATs are based on the most information available
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Gifted Hot Topics
• Ceiling Effect• Regression to the Mean• Evaluating Programming Options – Shared
instructional responsibility?• Adequately Challenging High Achieving
Students• Placement of Students / Cluster Grouping• AYP and VA are not the same thing• Etc.
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How often do students score within the Top 3 Scaled Score Points two years in a Row?
Subject Students Considered
Percentage of students scoring within the top three scaled scores on OAT two years in a row
4th Gd. Reading 26,511 0.18%
4th Gd. Math 26,511 0.15%
5th Gd. Reading 26,695 0.12%
5th Gd. Math 26,695 0.21%
6th Gd. Reading 26,718 0.04%
6th Gd. Math 26,718 0.05%
7th Gd. Reading 26,699 0.04%
7th Gd. Math 26,699 0.01%
8th Gd. Reading 27,919 0.19%
8th Gd. Math 27,919 0.05%
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How did the Suburban Districts Do, in particular?
• The highest percentage of students scoring within the top three scaled scores two years in a row was a little over 2%.
• Five wealthy Ohio suburban school districts had the following highest (district best) rates of students scoring within the top 3 scaled scores 2 years in a row:– District A – 2/172 (1.16%): 8th gd. Reading– District B – 7/612 (1.14%): 5th gd. Math– District C – 5/266 (1.88%): 4th gd. Math– District D – 1/77 (1.30%): 4th gd. Math– District E – 1/58 (1.72%): 5th gd. Math
– These were the highest rates these districts saw for any grade for students repeating top-3 scaled score performances across years within an OAT subject
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Evaluating Gifted Programs?Need to Verify Rosters?
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Demonstrating Relationship between Random Error and Observed Scores