ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
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Climate change and extreme WeatherTRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER
Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island
ISAAC GINIS
Impact of Global Warming
Intensities
One of the most dangerous implications is worsening of extreme weather events around the world in respect to:
Frequencies
Fatalities and Damages
Global warming is associated with a broad spectrum of changes, such as decreases in snow cover and Arctic sea ice, warmer hot days and nights, rising sea levels, and ocean acidification.
Black lines: decadal averages of observations Blue band: 5-95% range 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only natural forcings Red band: 5-95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings
Quelle: IPCC FoAR, 2007
Temperature is Rising in Every Continent
3
Heat stress
Cold stress
light
extreme high
moderate light
comfortable
moderate high
extreme
Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality
Sources: Robine et al., 2007; German Weather Service, 2004
19.500
9.400
15.000
300 2.300
20.100
2.700
1.000 800
August 2003 - Heat wave in Europe more than 70,000 fatalities
July 26, 2005 – Mumbai Flood •Meteorological station in Mumbai, India recorded 37 inches of rainfall within 24 hours •Highest ever in history of precipitation recordings in India.
More than 1150 fatalities
August 2005 - Hurricane Katrina
$110 billion direct damage More than 1,800 fatalities
June/July 2007 – Flood in the UK Largest flood economic losses ever
Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2007/index.html
Overall losses: > US$ 8 billion
7
February 2009 - Wildfires, Australia Largest on record
More than 175 fatalities
Source: Reuters, Berlin
Pakistan Russia China 2010
The hottest recorded summer in Russian history. 56,000 died.
February 2010 Snowmageddon in the U.S
Moisture from storm 2000 miles away: subtropical Atlantic where ocean temperatures at record high levels!
Courtesy of K. Trenberth
Blizzard February 2011 affected at least 30 U.S. states, more than 100 million people
New Hampshire
Chicago Milwaukee
Wisconsin
Blizzard 2011
2011 Southern US Drought
Texas experienced driest July-August period on record
Suffered an estimated $5.2 billion losses.
August 2011 - Hurricane Irene
Vermont Rhode Island
Philadelphia
• Landfall in NC, NJ, NY, CT • Affected 11 states • Fatalities: 56 • Damage: $10.1 billion
October 2011 - most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the
Northeast U.S.
Newark, New Jersey reported 5.2” greatest October snowfall on record
Weather Disasters in U.S. Frequency & Economic Losses Increasing Dramatically
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html
2011 IPCC Report: Extreme Weather Worsening
• New IPCC report confirms extreme weather worsening due to climate change.
• Scientists are virtually certain – 99% –world will have more periods of weather extremes through 21st century.
• 95% certain human actions contributed to trend and it will continue in future.
Other “High Impact” Weather Events • Not all “high impact events” are changing.
• There is insufficient evidence to determine
whether trends have occurred in “small spatial scale” events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning and dust storms.
United States Landfalling Hurricanes Do not Show any Long-term Trend
Image credit: NOAA/NHC
North Atlantic Hurricane Season Getting Longer
• In 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in Atlantic on or after November 1 -- average of 1 every 5 years
• In past 20 years, late-season hurricanes 3.5 times more frequent -- 15 late-season hurricanes.
Future Atlantic Hurricane Projections
• Colored bars show changes for the18 model CMIP3 ensemble (27 seasons); dots show range of changes across 4 individual CMIP models (13 seasons).
Cat 4+5 frequency: 81% increase, or 10% per decade
Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010.
Rainfall rates: 20% increase
Estimated net impact of these changes on damage potential: +28%
Late 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Projections
Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010
Projections of Extreme Weather Events in Rhode Island
• Currently ~12 to 15 nor’easters (extra-tropical
storms) hit U.S. Northeast November to March. • Projection -- 1 additional nor’easter could
affect the Northeast coast each winter by late century.
Projections of Extreme Weather Events in Rhode Island
• Higher sea levels and more intense storms. • Probability of increase in major coastal and
inland flood events. • Even minor storms will increase -- possibly
dramatically -- storm surge impacts such as coastal erosion.
Be Prepared!