ginkgo tree advisors focus · 2020-03-07 · ginkgo tree advisors focus this publication was...

GINKGO TREE ADVISORS FOCUS

CHINA FDI UPDATE CHINA'S NEW SILK ROAD

TALKING TECH: INDUSTRY 4.0

GINKGO TREE ADVISORS FOCUS II / 2015


This publication was compiled using the following sources and materials: Icons by freepic used under license from flaticon www.flaticon.com Cover picture and picture on page 10: Seven wonder of the great wall_Vektor ble2home, iStock_000062559216_illustration, Apr.19 2015, used under license by istockphoto.com Content sources: UNCTAD World Investment Report 2015, June 25 2015 Deutsche Bundesbank, FDI, June 8 2015 Data for foreign direct investments differ according to each institution's statistical methods and data base. For analyzing global FDI stream, we use UNCTAD data as a comprehensive, actual and comparable source for macro-data. For analyzing Chinese FDI to Germany, we use German Bundesbank data. The most actual data available was published on June 8 2015, the latest year of reporting was 2013. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) also publishes data on global and regional FDI. The data is not comparable. All data depictions and charts by Ginkgo Tree Advisors UG. All rights reserved. This publication does not claim completeness of compiled data nor does it impose the rendering of investment advice. All rights reserved. Re-Publication requires prior written approval of Ginkgo Tree Advisors UG.

GINKGO TREE ADVISORS FOCUS is a publication of knowledge and perspective-sharing articles by GINKGO TREE ADVISORS. Topics include M&A, private equity, corporate strategy and internationalization with a focus on China and Europe. Authors include partners, employees and external sector experts of GINKGO TREE ADVISORS. The articles contained in the GINKGO TREE ADVISORS FOCUS publications do not necessarily represent the views of GINKGO TREE ADVISORS. We welcome any comments and feedback in regard to this publication, which you can direct to: Ginkgo Tree Advisors UG Email: [email protected] www.ginkgotree-advisors.com Published: 20. July 2015 © 2015 Ginkgo Tree Advisors UG


§ GLOBAL CHINA FDI UPDATE

§ CHINESE DIRECT INVESTMENTS TO GERMANY

§ CHINA'S "ONE BELT, ONE ROAD"

§ TALKING TECH: INDUSTRY 4.0

§ COMPANY PROFILE

CONTENT


While the data of both reports is not comparable due to different methods of data statistics and reporting, we analyze and visualize some of the dominant trends of Chinese foreign direct investments on a global scale and into Germany, using both WIR and Bundesbank data. Ginkgo Tree Advisors' sector focus is on TMT, healthcare as well as agribusiness. TMT at Ginkgo Tree is spelled with a capital "T" for technology, especially under the fashionable and important "industry 4.0" label. Some of the current technology and market trends in Germany and China are summarized in the "Industry 4.0" sector focus. GINKGO TREE ADVISORS FOCUS is a publication of knowledge and perspective-sharing articles by GINKGO TREE ADVISORS. Topics include M&A, private equity, corporate strategy and internationalization with a focus on China and Europe. Please get in touch, if you would like to obtain more information on our advisory parctice and services.


GINKGO TREE ADVISORS FOCUS II / 2015 China's initiative to found the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been joined by European countries such as Germany and France. The foundation agreements have been signed in June 2015 and the AIIB is set to be established by the end of this year to start investing in an Asian, Eurasian and African infrastructure according to the "One Belt, One Road" or "New Silk Road Initiative". One of the largest infrastructure concepts in history, which resembles the further outward engagament and positioning of China in the world, the project will further increase China's economic involvement in trade and commerce and further diversify its geopolitical aims. German Bundesbank as well as the United Nations Conference on Trade and Investment (UNCTAD) have both published its latest foreign direct investment data in June. While the reporting of Bundesbank lags two years behind and the most recent FDI figures now available are for 2013, UNCTAD has published its yearly World Investment Report (WIR) on June 25 2015 and reports detailed global FDI figures for 2014.

GINKGO TREE ADVISOR FOCUS II / 2015: § CHINA FDI UPDATE § CHINA'S "NEW SILK ROAD" § TALKING TECH: INDUSTRY 4.0


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Japan! France! Germany! China!

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Fig. 2: FDI outflows, selected countries, 2012-2014 (USD billion) Source: UNCTAD, 2015

Fig.: Ginkgo Tree Advisors

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Fig.1: FDI stock, selected countries, 2012-2014 (USD billion) Source: UNCTAD, 2015


GLOBAL CHINA FDI UPDATE

On June 25 2015, UNCTAD has published the 2015 World Investment Report (WIR). We have used WIR data to analyze cross-border investment activities of China and compared it to major developed economies. § We find that China's FDI stock has

grown to significant numbers. § China's FDI outflows continue to

increase and have reached a new record high of USD 116 billion in 2014.

§ The value of announced greenfield

FDI investments has surged in 2014. § The value of cross-border M&A

transactions is further increasing and shows a higher activity than that of Germany and France.

According to the latest World Investment Report (WIR), published by UNCTAD in June 2015, total global FDI flows have declined by 16% in 2014, while developing economies' FDI flows have increased by 2%. For the first time, China has become the largest recipient of FDI in 2014 worldwide. We have analyzed WIR data to determine trends and developments of FDI and M&A activity, especially in regard to China's outward FDI flows and have compared the data to other major economies, like Germany and France. Building significant FDI stock China, over the course of the last 25 years and especially since the beginning of the "going out" policy in 2000 was able to build a significant global FDI stock. In 2014, China's FDI stock amounted to USD 729 billion coming from only USD 27 billion in the year 2000. In comparison, Germany as a developed economy and long-time foreign direct investor has increased its FDI stock to currently USD 1.6 trillion. (Fig 1) Looking at FDI flows over the last three years, China continues its upward trend and invested a new record amount of USD 116 billion abroad in 2014. (2013: USD 101 billion). Chinese FDI flows are now surpassing the FDI flows of the other major Asian economy Japan, which amounted to USD 114 billion in 2014. (Germany: USD 112 billion; France: USD 42 billion). (Fig.2).


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Fig. 3: Value of cross-border M&A transactions, net sales, 2012-2014 (USD billion) Source: UNCTAD, 2015


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Fig. 4: Value of cross-border M&A transactions, net purchases, 2012-2014 (USD billion) Source: UNCTAD, 2015



Cross-border M&A activity M&A has become a significant means of investing abroad for Chinese companies and institutions and M&A activity remained high in 2014. In terms of value of net sales activity of cross-border M&A transactions, China's USD 52 billion imposes a higher cross-border M&A value than France and Germany combined. (France: USD 27 billion, Germany USD 15 billion). (Fig. 3). Even more significant is the value of China's net purchases. Here, the value of cross-border M&A transactions slightly decreased from USD 50 billion in 2013 to USD 39 billion in 2014, but still imposes a large transaction value, especially compared to developed economies like Germany with USD 29 billion and France with USD 17 billion and especially over a three-year perspective (2012-2014). (Fig. 4). This validates China's increasing outbound transactions as well as the current favorable M&A environment. China's M&A activity is likely to continue to increase in 2015.


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Fig. 5: Value of announced greenfield FDI projects, 2012-2014 (USD billion) Source: UNCTAD, 2015



Greenfield FDI projects surge in 2014 2013 was the first year in which Chinese greenfield FDI projects were lower in value than investments through M&A activity. Witnessing a huge spike in value of announced greenfield FDI projects, China did not continue this trend in 2014. In that year, the value of announced Chinese greenfield FDI projects was at around USD 63 billion compared to USD 22 billion in 2013. Figure 5 shows that the value of China's greenfield FDI announcements has surpassed those of Germany and France in 2014. (Germany: USD 53 billion, France: USD 46 billion). The greenfield FDI trend is sparked by Sino-African investment opportunities as well as commitments in South East Asia and developed economies in Europe and America.

Outbound investment activity remains strong China's outbound investment activity further increased in 2014 and is likely to gain more momentum in the years to come. The "New Silk Road" project is one example for a policy-driven growth potential in foreign investments by China. China's companies are further grasping international opportunities and besides greenfield FDI, M&A has become the vehicle of choice for investing abroad. Total Chinese outward FDI reached a new record high in 2014, fueled by another strong year in M&A transaction value and a surge in announced greenfield FDI project value. 2015 is likely to see another increase of Chinese outward FDI. Chinese FDI to Germany China's global FDI developments were analyzed using the most recent UNCTAD WIR data. The available data unfortunately does not allow for a detailed analysis of Chinese FDI flows to Germany. In order to give an overview on Chinese FDI to Germany, German Bundesbank as well as the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) provide data on FDI statistics. For our analysis of Chinese FDI to Germany, we are relying on Bundesbank data. Bundesbank has published FDI data for 2013 on June 8 2015 and lacks behind the UN data for one year. Due to different data methods and statistics UNCTAD, MOFCOM and Bundesbank data are not comparable.


Bundesbank also provides data on revenue and employees of Chinese-invested companies in Germany. Revenue of foreign invested companies in Germany totalled EUR 1,502 billion of which the revenue of Chinese-invested companies was at EUR 2.5 billion in 2013. Those Chinese-invested companies employed 7.000 people, while all foreign-invested companies together were able to provide jobs for 2.825.000 employees. In comparison, German invested companies in China recorded a revenue of EUR 209 billion in 2013 and employed 615.000 people.

Selected countries FDI flows to Germany, 2013 (EUR billion) Source: Bundesbank, 2015


Revenue of foreign invested companies in Germany, 2013 (EUR billion) Source: Bundesbank, 2015


Employees of foreign invested companies in Germany, 2013 Source: Bundesbank, 2015


CHINESE DIRECT INVESTMENTS TO GERMANY

German Bundesbank has published its yearly FDI statistics in June 2015. The latest FDI data available is from 2013. Analyzing the FDI figures in regard to the development of Chinese foreign direct investments to Germany, we find that the usual suspects attract most of Chinese FDI to Germany. In 2013, FDI flows to Germany totalled EUR 657 billion. In 2012, Germany has received EUR 792 billion. Compared to other significant foreign investors in Germany, China's share remains tiny. The USA, for example, have invested a total of EUR 59 billion in Germany in 2013, which accounts for 9,1% of all direct investments. The share of Japan, the other significant Asian economy, was 2,8% of total FDI flows or EUR 18 billion. China's FDI flows to Germany reached EUR 1,6 billion according to Bundesbank data in 2013 and accounted for a tiny 0,2% of total FDI to Germany. In 2012, Chinese FDI flows to Germany were at EUR 1,5 billion.

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Total: EUR 1,502 bn

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Total: 2,825,000 Chinese-invested: 7,000


Fig. 9: Chinese FDI flows to German federal states, 2013 (EUR million) Source: Bundesbank, 2015


CHINESE DIRECT INVESTMENTS TO GERMANY

Analyzing the destinations of Chinese FDI flows into Germany's federal states, Bundesbank data delivers the usual suspects for 2013. Hesse, North-Rhine Westphalia, Bavaria and Hamburg frequently account for the top four destinations of Chinese foreign direct investments, each year just in slightly different order. Lower-Saxony has joined the ranks of the peer group in recent years and received another EUR 92 million in direct investments from China in 2013. Hesse leads FDI inflows from China with EUR 736 million, which is almost half of total FDI inflows from China to Germany in 2013. Bavaria follows second with EUR 328 million in 2013 and China FDI to North Rhine Westphalia amounts to EUR 263 million. The high increase in FDI to North Rhine Westphalia, as shown in figure 9, is misleading. Taking other sources into account, the picture looks different and is very much in favor of NRW. Hamburg concludes the top four with EUR 156 million of Chinese FDI inflows. The data set for FDI inflows from China are excluding FDI from Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a favored hub for outward investments by Chinese holding companies, the same is valid for other nations investing or distributing capital flows via Hong Kong.

-100! 0! 100! 200! 300! 400! 500! 600! 700! 800!

Baden Wurtemberg!

Sachsen!

Schleswig Holstein!

Rheinland Pfalz!

Niedersachsen!

Hamburg!

Nordrhein-Westfalen!

Bayern!

Hessen!

North-Rhine Westphalia receives a large portion of FDI from Hong Kong and accounting Hong Kong data to "Chinese" FDI would change the ranks of the largest FDI receivers among German federal states. What about other federal states? For other federal states, the amounts of Chinese FDI inflows published by Bundesbank were either insignificant, confidential or not available. With higher Chinese M&A activity and higher greenfield FDI, every German region still has an opportunity to position itself and participate from Chinese investments in their region. Duesseldorf, the capital of North Rhine Westphalia, remains the China hub in Germany, but regions like Frankfurt, Munich and Hamburg have attracted lots of Chinese companies in recent years. In that regard it is crucial to have a China strategy in place and attract Chinese investments according to the sectoral structure in place.


Fig. 10: Infrastructure Investment Fund Commitments (USD billion) Source: CKGSB Knowledge Research, Bloomberg, Xinhua

Fig: Ginkgo Tree Advisors / Gregory Louvel

ONE ROAD, ONE BELT: CHINA'S NEW SILK ROAD INITIATIVE

Infrastructure Investment Funds USD billion Announced

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) 50.0 Oct 14

Silk Road Fund 40.0 Nov 14

New Development Bank (BRICS Bank) 30.0 July 14

China Development Bank (CDB) 16.0 Nov 14

ASEAN Infrastructure Connectivity Funds (managed by CDB) 20.0 Nov 14

Let China in? Gregory Louvel, Partner of Ginkgo Tree Advisors, Beijing describes some the implications that the "One Road, One Belt" Strategy and China's "New Silk Road Initiative" will have for China and the world. The agreements of one of the major vehicles to finance China's mega-infrastructure project, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have been signed in June, joined by Western nations like Germany and France. The AIIB is set to be finally operative by the end of this year and marks an important milestone in implementing the "One Road, One Belt" Strategy.

As part of his plan to increase the interconnectivity of China with the rest of the world, China's president Xi Jinping laid out his plans to establish a "New Silk Road" in 2013, likely having large economic implications to China and the world. What is it? The declared purpose of the "New Silk Road Initiative" is to facilitate China's macroeconomic priorities and its integration in the global economy. Just as the Silk Road in its traditional sense, the New Silk Road Initiative is more than simply a route. The project will link China with Europe through the countries of Central and Western Asia. The "One Road, One Belt" strategy goes even further and in addition to Europe also connects China with Southeast Asian countries, Africa and finally Europe through the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, this giving China the means to rock its own world. Yi Dai, Yi Lu (One Road, One Belt) The symbolism behind the name was not selected by chance. It refers to a time when China was the number one economic power in the world. The basic idea is to give back China its status in the world and to mitigate geopolitical risk by multiplying access routes, whether its port, railway or raod infrastructure.


ONE ROAD, ONE BELT: CHINA'S NEW SILK ROAD INITIATIVE

It will allow China to diversify the routes by which it can secure the transport of oil, gas and other essential goods. All countries along the road will thus become part of an economic hinterland whose major purpose will be to support China's economic growth. The project will surely accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi as a global currency, further making it a currency of choice for regional trade settlements. Thus, China also further accelerates its capital outflows and puts its foreign exchange reserves to a good use. International public funding available While the China-centric approach of the "New Silk Road Initiative" is obvious, it nonetheless opens manyfold opportunities for countries located on the way, e.g. in Central and Western Asia, Africa and Europe. This includes countries in need of financing for the establishment of new infrastructure or for the upgrade of existing facilities. Those countries would likely welcome a powerful financier to offer support. In addition, trade and commerce along the way are also likely to increase further by means of improved market access to China and vice versa.

Details remain foggy Currently, there exists a huge enthusiasm for the project in China. However, the project is still at an early stage and planned for the long-term so that many of the details still have to be thought through. It also remains open, how many of the countries along the road respond to the project in the years to follow. One thing is clear however: the "New Silk Road Initiative" and the "One Road, One Belt Strategy", offer a tangible alternative to European and US free trade initiatives by many aspects.

China's New Silk Road Iniative under the "One Road, One Belt" Strategy offers various opportunities in the engagement with China. The project is still at the concept stage at this point with opportunities evolving rapidly. If you are interested in obtaining more informations on opportunities regarding China-Europe and China-Africa, please contact us directly at Email: [email protected]



One of the Ginkgo Tree Advisors M&A sector practice areas is the TMT sector with a big "T" for technology under the "Industry 4.0" label. The policy initiative of "Made in China 2025" relates to this technology trend and there is a huge demand for strategic partnerships in the field, especially between Germany and China. Dr. Sarah Wolff, Associate Partner at Ginkgo Tree Advisors describes some of the industries' recent macro trends. • Current ‘hot topics’ in the industry are

among others Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud-Computing and 3D printing.

• Once those technologies become

mainstream customers will enjoy individualised services and products without paying a premium.

• Tech companies see gigantic growth

opportunities laying ahead supplying more and more meaningful devices to consumers, automating almost any production or service delivery.

Industry forecasts like those of Frey and Osborne expect that 47% of todays jobs in the United States will be automated once those technologies become mainstream. ING Diba forecasts Germany to be affected even more so because of its industrial focus. The ING study sees 59% of all jobs in Germany to be performed by machines and robots in the future. New is that we are no longer talking about low wage jobs exclusively. Low wage jobs will be affected the most, but higher paying jobs that require a higher degree of education will be affected just as much. Physicians, tax advisors, investment bankers or journalists will be replaced, while the demand for professions like software developers increases. Computers already today provide significant support with surgeries by combining MRT and CT pictures into 3 dimensional graphics. The company Ai uses Algorithms to write journalistic articles for over 1,400 clients without one journalist being involved. Realising these gigantic productivity increases globally is nevertheless a long-term goal. Because of this significance and potentials of shift, leading economists currently design new concepts to run economies where +50% of today’s labor is no longer needed.

Near term dynamics Who are the dominant players in these markets today? Will they still be around tomorrow? Have the Germans really missed out as often indicated by the press? How can Chinese and German companies lift existing opportunities? When Digitalisation started in the 70s, personal computers, internet and networking devices were the dominant growth drivers in the industry. The field was led by US companies and later their Japanese, Korean and Chinese competitors. Mature IT players that originate from that period are Cisco, IBM, HP, Microsoft and Apple, to name a few. While the consumer-driven internet and device markets are analysed frequently, the networking market is even more dynamic and as such offers abundant growth & investment opportunities. Cisco, for example, has been dominating this market for years, winning 60%+ market share globally. Its dominance however, is under pressure from many different ‘best-of-breed’ companies that pick a niche in which they gain advantages relative to Cisco and then consequently partner with one another. Arista and Brocade for instance attack Ciscos core competence and cash cow, its LAN portfolio.



Analytics firms with a focus on consumer analytics will be challenged sooner or later by companies like Facebook, Google or Microsoft who all work on their own Wifi programs, using their own analytics engines and providing aggregated data (free-of-charge) monetarizing with advertisement. In those new applications also German start-ups are active. Tolerate from Freiburg, for example, provides indoor navigation using acoustic signals. Bitplaces (T-Ventures) provides indoor user data analytics independent from the HW in use. Sensorberg (Microsoft Ventures) offers Vendor agnostic location based services and an SDK for app developers. Truly disruptive is the German research institute Fraunhofer IMPS. Researchers have developed LED Wifi, also know as Li-Fi. Li-Fi transports huge data volumes using light. It one day could replace standards such as (10-) Gigabit Ethernet and make network infrastructure obsolete, including expensive fiberoptic infrastructure. While US and Asian companies became IT market leaders, Germany focused on (mechanical) engineering and dominates the world market until today. However, with fully automated M2M communication, the value add in factories no longer comes from precise mechanical engineering alone, but rather from the software that runs robots, machine clusters and entire factories.

Code is key in delivering the gigantic productivity improvements expected from Industrie 4.0 and IoT. Chinese companies and government invest heavily in these new technologies. Thereby, Chinese car and train manufacturers lead the way. What the Chinese have already managed in these industries, they now want to replicate also in mechanical engineering, strongly leveraging the IoT and Industry 4.0 trends. They do this to protect their position as manufacturing arm of the world. Once the networked production becomes reality, traditional production outsourcing to Asia and China is no longer of interest for Western companies. In addition to the investments from the Chinese government and Chinese companies in IoT and Industry 4.0 topics in China, Western IT companies not only manufacture products in Asia. They also operate large R&D facilities in India and China equipped with young, motivated software engineers who produce gigantic amounts of code. Will these Asian Ssftware production ‘factories’ design the brains for intelligent product and service factories of the future? Looking ahead, will Germany supply products that receive final processing in China?

On the WLAN and mobility markets, Cisco faces harsh competition from Aruba (recently acquired by HP), Aerohive (announced a Dell partnership recently) and Rukus (annouced a partnership with Juniper). Tech innovations drive productivity The market is expected to consolidate further. Fortinet recently acquired Meru to apply their security where the user gets into the network, at the WLAN Access. Industry rumours tell they also negotiate a Deal with Ubiquity. Huawei, Q-NAP from Taiwan and other networking players from China are ambitiously rising. This is supported by the Chinese government, who rigorously bans foreign network components within China. HP recently had to sell a majority ownership of the Chinese H3C market leader and has transformed into a minority shareholder in a joint venture together with Tsinghua University. Providing network infrastructure however is no longer about transporting as many data as possible in a given amount of time. True value nowadays comes from data analytics. All network companies either run their own big data analytics engine or cooperate with analytic companies such as Software AG, Tableau, Beabloo or Skyfii.



Even Chinese IT companies face big challenges because of the rigours copyright violations around software code in China. B2B requires diverse solutions It is important to note that enterprise markets have very different dynamics than those of consumer markets. Newer tech giants such as Google, Baidu, Amazon, Facebook or eBay became big with a focus on the consumer. However, the ‘one-size-fits-all’ principal does not apply to enterprise customers. That is the reason why IT giants such as IBM, HP, Cisco, Google, Amazon, SAP or Salesforce now challenge traditional players like Siemens, ABB, Thyssen or Airbus. The race has just begun and traditional mechanical engineering companies such as Trumpf, Kuka or MTU do have very strong USPs to build their IoT strategy and offerings on. German "Mittelstand", such as Maschinenfabrik Reinhausen (MR) innovate at high speed. MR automated their own production facilities so well that they now sell their home grown system and knowledge to other production facilities around the world.

German companies still provide the "heart" of enterprise grade IoT solutions: 1. Microelectronis / Sensor technologies 2. Robotics 3. Embedded software Manufacturing robots and 3D printing are already affordable and as such used in many factories. Connecting these devises is about to happen. The next challenge arising is what to do when robots develop artificial intelligence. We are seeing even more dynamics in these fast growing markets, including rising investment & partnership opportunities.

Ginkgo Tree Advisors' sector focus is on TMT, healthcare and agribusiness. In our TMT practice, we focus on technology, especially on industry 4.0 topics like robotics, machine vision, sensors, automation, etc. We constantly identify partnership opportunities in the field between China and Europe. Please get directly in touch, if you would like to learn more about current sector opportunities: Email: [email protected]

TMT @ Ginkgo Tree Advisors


COMPANY PROFILE

GINKGO TREE ADVISORS Ginkgo Tree Advisors is a Munich-based boutique M&A advisory firm with international mandates and shareholdings in China, Germany and the US. Our unique advisory focus is on China's internationalization and going global. Ginkgo Tree Advisors provides M&A and strategic advisory services to corporations & entrepreneurs, institutional investors and public sector & government, supporting clients with their strategic challenges of internationalization and cross-border activity. We possess a deep understanding of the Chinese and European markets, we work solution-driven and implementation-focused and we are able to utilize a global partner network, which makes us a trusted advisor to our clients. Contributing Authors: FDI Update: Daniel Koller, Managing Partner, Ginkgo Tree Advisors, Munich One Belt, One Road: Gregory Louvel, Partner, Ginkgo Tree Advisors, Beijing Talking Tech: Dr. Sarah Wolff, Associate Partner, Ginkgo Tree Advisors, Munich Ginkgo Tree Advisors welcomes any questions, feedback and media inquiries. Please direct your inquiry to [email protected]. © Ginkgo Tree Advisors 2015. All rights reserved. GINKGO TREE ADVISORS UG [email protected] www.ginkgotree-advisors.com

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