GIS as an Administrative Decision Support System for Planning at Fayetteville Public Schools

Using GIS for Student Enrollment Projection

Student Enrollment Projection for 5 Years

7800

7900

8000

8100

8200

8300

8400

8500

8600

8700

8800

8900

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Students

Gathering data for an enrollment projection for the Fayetteville School District is challenging because of the geographical nature of the data sources. A substantial portion of the City of Fayetteville falls within the Fayetteville School District, yet not all the inhabitants reside within the district. It is estimated that 90% of the residential units are located within the Fayetteville School District boundaries. The school district is located within Washington County. Based on the County Assessor’s data, some 39% of the improved, non-vacant residential units are located within the boundaries of the school district.

The available data sources include: U.S. Census Bureau statistics for Washington CountyNorthwest Regional Planning Commission (NWARP)City of Fayetteville’s Plan 2020City of Fayetteville Planning Office and the Office of Geographical Information SystemsArkansas Geographic Information Office (AGIO)GeoStor (University of Arkansas CAST )Arkansas Department of Education (ADE)Washington County Assessors OfficeWashington County 911 OfficeFayetteville School District, and first hand personal observation.

However, not all of the data from the City, Census Bureau and the Regional Planning Commission is completely accurate or applicable to the Fayetteville School District. In addition, the data obtained from the ADE may not take into account all of the unique factors that influence area growth at this time.

The Data: Student Enrollment Projection

Location of Platted Housing Developments

Dots are Lots

Squares are units

Area Platted Housing

Segmented

The School District is Segmented Reflecting Neighborhoods

Transportation and safety was a major factor in deciding where to segment the district.

Student Population

Student Density

2000-2003 Transition

Bridgeport Phase III Sub-division: Timeline of Growth

2000 Air Photography

2003 SAT Image

Students in Bridgeport

There are 21 students residing in the Bridgeport sub-division as of January 2004

21 Students

8 Students

5 Students

As of October 2004 there are 30 students.

Number of New Housing Units and Lots

New Housing with Number and Type Depicted

Housing Value

Housing Total Assessed Value

.76 miles from nearest school

Distance

Rate of Housing

Looking at the 2000 air photograph, Bridgeport was an open field with no activity. The City of Fayetteville mapped the sub-division with 99 platted single family lots, and presented it to the Fayetteville School District in September 2002. Some construction was underway, and it is assumed that development of Bridgeport was sometime in 2001.  In October 2002, some 5 students resided in Bridgeport.   The Fayetteville School District purchased a satellite image of the district and in July 2003. As of October 2003, some 20 students resided in Bridgeport showing 59 structures completed construction, with 31 open lots.  As of January 2004 there were 21 students residing in the Bridgeport subdivision.  Based on the number of housing units built and the residing students as of October 2003, the student to housing ratio was 1 student for every 2.8 housing units. The cost of the housing runs from $200,000 to $300,000, according to the developer. The properties are zoned R-1 or RSF-4.  Thus, from 2000 to 2003, the Bridgeport sub-division went from an un-developed field to a development of 59 single family houses with 20 residing students.

Bridgeport Analysis

Note: This analysis is for this specific sub-division.

Housing Types

Multi-Family Commercial & Industrial

Single FamilyDuplex-Triplex & Mobile Homes

Calculating Students from Proposed Housing

The assumption that “where there are houses, there are students” is a simple method of projecting student enrollment. Many school districts simply estimate one new student per dwelling unit. However, the following study may suggest the type of housing could determine how many students can be expected for new housing starts.

The Bridgeport Analysis demonstrated the method for examining one sub-division. The study that follows looks at several sub-divisions and other forms of housing types to generate a general student-to-housing ratio.

Student to Housing Ratios: Samples

Schools Single Family Mobile Homes Duplexes ApartmentsCensus Bureau 2000 Percentage of Poverty Over 20%: The darker, the higher

Census 2000

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AVE_HH_SZ0.00 - 1.001.01 - 2.012.02 - 3.003.01 - 6.00major streets

current zones

Census 2000 Average House Hold Size

Results of Samples

Single Family Homes: Of some 13 sample areas, the Student to Housing Ratio is 1 to 2.6.

Duplexes: Of 10 sample areas, the Student to Housing Ratio is 1 to 3.

Apartments: Of 11 sample areas, the Student to Housing Ratio is 1 to 3.92.

Mobile Home Parks: Of 8 sample areas, the Student to Housing Ratio is 1 to 2.62.

Note: The inner part of the City of Fayetteville has a higher concentration of apartments while the growth of single family homes are being built east and west of the center of the city. The apartments in the inner area of the city are heavily populated with University of Arkansas students who tend not to have school aged children. It is therefore assumed that the ratio for the apartments will be higher for the overall number than the samples suggest above.

Locating Student Growth

One 30 year employee of the Fayetteville School District told me that she use to track where their elementary students lived by placing pins in a map. We do the same electronically for the entire district with GIS.

In the past, the district did not have a good idea of which students lived in the boundaries of the district or a certain attendance zone. In an area where growth is rapid, this becomes a monumental task. Many school districts accept intra-district transfers from other school districts. Determining how many students resided within the district became confusing. With GIS, the task becomes simple, delivering more accurate information to school administrators.

Between 2002 and 2003, total enrollment, by simple count, appeared to increase by 40 students. However, using GIS, the district has an increase of 148 students residing within the school district. With a restrictive transfer policy, the number of out of district students dropped while students residing within Fayetteville increased due to a housing boom.

October 1st 2002 Fayetteville Students Residing In District

In Zone 2002

October 1st 2003 Fayetteville Students Residing In District

In Zone 2003

Inner City Area K-12 Students

416 417

444

431

389 387

400

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

K12_MAR_02 K12_MAY_02 K12_OCT_02 K12_JAN_03 K12_OCT_03 K12_JAN_04 K12_AUG_04

PeriodK

-5 S

tud

ents

Inner City Area K-5 Students

214211

231

218

198 198

203

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

K5_MAR_02 K5_MAY_02 K5_OCT_02 K5_JAN_03 K5_OCT_03 K5_JAN_04 K5_AUG_04

Period

K-5

Stu

den

ts

Students in the City

Growth Areas Against K-5 Zones

August 2004 students mapped to new housing points.

Observed Growth

River Meadows 2000

River Meadows 2003

River meadows 2004

There were 3 houses in 2000.

There were 21 houses in July of 2003 with 10 students in October 2003.

There were 3 students residing in this subdivision in October 2002.

There were 69 houses in the first half of 2004 with 18 students in October 2004.

Housing Student Ratio

0 310

18

3

10

21

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2002 2003 2004

year

Nu

mb

er

Houses

Students

The number of students in 2000 and the number of homes in 2002 were assumed.

Ratio study

In District

7,350

7,400

7,450

7,500

7,550

7,600

7,650

2002 2003

In District

Fayetteville City Limits

6,3206,3406,3606,3806,4006,4206,4406,4606,4806,500

2002 2003

FayettevilleCity Limits

Not in District

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

2002 2003

Not inDistrict

Location of Where Students Reside Last Year and This

Year

There was growth in the school district, specifically within the City of Fayetteville while the administration restricted intra-district transfers.

School District Data

The first objective in implementing a GIS in a school district is to obtain accurate student data.

To accomplish this, a map reader (ArcExplorer) was installed on all of the school secretary’s PC for determining with accuracy the student’s correct attendance zone and to obtain an accurate address for the student.

This data is entered into the student’s electronic record. This was essential for geocoding the 8,000 plus students.

Two years ago, a batch mapping of the students was at a 56% map rate. After a data cleanup, the rate rose to 90%.

The district also utilizes ArcIMS on the district homepage for the public and local realtors correctly determine if the resident is in the school district or which attendance zone they reside.

Locator

New-comers to the District could locate which attendance zone they reside in by accessing this information over the internet.

GIS in Practice: The Jefferson Elementary Issue

As a part of the Fayetteville School District’s Capital Improvement Plan Project, it was decided that an old elementary school, named Jefferson Elementary, cost more to maintain than it would to build and maintain a new facility over a ten year period. In addition to this factor, due to area growth, the district’s student enrollment was projected to grow by 400 elementary student by the year 2007. So it was decided to replace Jefferson with a larger elementary school to accommodate this projected growth. However, after a public meeting on this issue, the poverty of the student population was raised as a serious concern.

The number of Free & Reduced students, a common standard for determining economically challenged students or impoverished students, changed the analysis of the Capital Improvement Plan. Jefferson had a student population with 87% Free & Reduced students with a district average of 30%. GIS was employed to re-draw the elementary attendance zones to reduced this percentage. Jefferson elementary is located in the south part of the City of Fayetteville and in the south and southwest portion of the school district.

Growth ManagementGrowth Management Equity ConsiderationEquity Consideration

Economic EfficiencyEconomic Efficiency

Build school to service the future growth.

Long term capital plan for existing and new resources: Building a new, larger school to replace an older high maintenance building as a sound economic decision.

Level the disparity in the percentage of economically challenged K-5 students.

Decision AnalysisFor the Jefferson Issue

K-5 Zones

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Elementary Attendance Zones

Residing in Jefferson

January 2004 Students Residing in the Jefferson Zone

Census Poverty

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24.3

25.0

22.738.8

32.7

56.8

Percent Fayetteville Population Below Poverty LevelBased on US Census 2000

88.8

60.0

45.0

30.063.6

84.6

13.5

1.8

9.6

73.9

25.0

77.3

53.3

54.9

75.0

6.2

4.0

16.0

13.1

80.0

93.1

75.7

14.2

83.3

3.2

14.8

11.7

73.4

24.4

55.1

2.0

91.6

94.6

1.3

14.963.7

88.6

94.7

38.4

63.1

65.9

81.4

26.6

82.3

43.4

88.5

90.4

100.0

88.8

75.0

33.3

33.3

0.0

0.0

80.0

63.6 33.3

33.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

33.3

14.2

100.0

25.0

33.3

22.2

100.0

0.0

0.0 0.0

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50.0

0.0

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88.8

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60.0

Percent F&R

Percent of Economically Challenged Students by Planning Zone

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South East Location

New Housing

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Plat Housing Points: Potential New Housing Locations

2

44

35

6

18

7

19

21

24

144

16

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6

6 2

2

2

2

2

2 12

8

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K-5 Student Growth

Projected K-5 students over the next 3-4 yrs.

Jefferson Zone

An Impervious Surface Map of the Jefferson Zone

Streets

Sewer

Water

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Slope

Flood Plain

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City Planned Zones 2003

Planned Streets

West Location

This spot was found to meet all of the criteria for a new school site.

Bus Route Planning

By using GIS to map bus routes, school transportation managers can better plan bus routes. By using shape files of the students who ride the buses, proposed streets, and new sub-divisions, school buses can be routed with greater efficacy.

Perhaps the most effective result of using GIS for school transportation planning is that it is a good tool for finding weaknesses in transportation practices and policies.

Using GIS in conjunction with an AVL system for buses, transportation managers and administrators can have a real-time perspective of what is happening on the road.

Sidewalk Mapping Project

In the Summer of 2003, Fayetteville Schools, in cooperation with the University of Arkansas and the City of Fayetteville, engaged several EAST students to map sidewalks within a mile radius of each of the nine elementary schools within the district.

Stemming from a transportation study related to school bus routing, the need to know if and where the sidewalks around each elementary became important for further analysis.

Sidewalk Project

K-5 Buffer Zones By Street

Elementary One Mile Service Radius by Street Length

Numbers show Oct 2004 K-5 students residing in that area.

January 2004 Sidewalks

A New School ?

The stars are new sub-divisions.The gray area is the town of Goshen.The red line shows a proposed school demographic area.

Vandergriff Attendance Zone

Happy Hollow Attendance Zone

Comment on Parcels

Tif Area

Commercial Parcels Comparison

TYPE C parcel points in the City of Fayetteville: Assessed total value = $147,613,616

TYPE C parcel points in the TIF area: Assessed total value = $11,511,977

The TIF TYPE C parcels comprise 7.8% of the total in that part of the City within the Fayetteville School District.

Tif Comparison

Johnson TIFF

$7.5 million total assessed value.

April 2004 Registered Voters and Fayetteville School Board Zones

School Board

The following comments are offered by some of the Fayetteville School

Board Members and Administrators regarding the implementation of a geographical information system in

the district.

Intro to comments

I believe that the GIS system has been instrumental in assisting us with decision making. It has shown the growth areas of our city and how this will impact our current school locations. It shows how many students lives in each zone.  Just recently when the district needed to build a new school this tool was of major importance since we first planned to build a school south of town but realized that would be the best location due to projected growth. Before this system it was just a quessing game. This tool also helped determine available land and what that land looked like, what roads it bordered on, etc. I know that it has been used for bus routes to make the routes moreefficient and faster. I feel that it has been a major help in all phases of district planning and projections. Not being on the school board until three years ago, I can't imagine how many decisions would have been made without it. Chris Bell, Fayetteville School Board 2004

Comments

GIS has given us facts to base our decisions on. Before we had the system we were using the knowledge of people around the district that it seemed like the right time to build, add on, increase our transportation system etc. and we had no future vision. Any group that has responsibility for a geographic area and growth projections will find a GIS system of benefit. It gives us real data on what is there now and the ability to project where our growth areas will be. We have the ability to be proactive instead of reactive. Initially a GIS implementation is time intensive. The time is so well spent and well worth our investment. The ability to see our district on the basis of actual homes locations and population densities has shown us many things we didn't know before and confirmed some of what we thought we knew.

Susan Heil, Fayetteville School Board 2004.

Comments

FERPA & GISIn consideration, and in accordance with the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), there are certain issues one must examine when publishing information used from data and images obtained through GIS.

The specificity of the data being represented. For example, “How close can you get, and what can you show”?

If you are zoomed out far enough that the circle that represents a student covers at least several houses worth of space that helps especially as geocoding only approximates locations and has inherent error in it. I would think that if you code the points to indicate gender or races or so on, you'd want to be even more careful about the scale of presentation as you are adding more identifying information. Also, in low density rural areas, the zoom out would have to be greater than in areas of high density housing. Eliminating features such as small roads and streams that could help place the specific location of a geocoded point also helps preserve anonymity I would think.

One college research director pointed out….

There appears to be no legal or administrative directive on how GIS and FERPA relate. The key may rest in the definitions found in the Act.

Appropriate Access to GIS Data: Security

A GIS professional must be aware of what data can be publish for security reasons. For example, a school may wish to publish a web map showing bus stop locations using ArcIMS or some other web-mapping service.

Authority on this subject can be found with the Federal Geographic Data Committee FGDC (www.fgdc.gov), and the National Defense Research Institute at RAND (www.rand.org). Both organizations produce and offer guidelines for any public or private entity that intends to publish geospatial data over the internet.

The guidelines are to extensive to list but a general rule of thumb is whether the information published can be found through more conventional means such as a phone book or through direct observation. Another consideration is the level of security the data should be afforded.