Gisborne UpdateMay 2011

• The World has changed … again• Vintage• Recent Developments• The Year Ahead• Member Survey• Discussion

Agenda

• In many ways a typical NZ (la Nina) vintage; quality overall seems to be fine.

• We expect volume to be down Auckland, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay

• Weather issues were a feature in these regions

• Wairarapa & South Island generally favourable weather, but with disease pressure in some regions.

• Vintage Survey still underway – we expect vintage to be +/- 310,000 tonnes (wineries please send in your forms)

Vintage 2011

Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – all wine

Mar

Apr

May

June Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-10 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-11 Feb

Mar

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Month MAT

$/litre

Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – all wine

Mar

Apr

May

June Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-10 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-11 Feb

Mar

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Month MAT

$/litre

March 2011 –Highest pricesince Dec 2009

Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – packaged wine (i.e. excl. Bulk)

Mar

Apr

May

June Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-10 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-11 Feb

Mar

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

MAT Month

$/litre

Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – packaged wine (i.e. excl. Bulk)

Mar

Apr

May

June Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-10 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan-11 Feb

Mar

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

MAT Month

$/litre

March 2011 –Highest pricesince June 2009

Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports - % Share

May

June

July

200

9

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

2010 Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

10

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan-

11 Feb

Mar

Apr0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Month MAT

%

Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports - % Share

May

June

July

200

9

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

2010 Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

10

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan-

11 Feb

Mar

Apr0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Month MAT

%

In Mar/Apr we have not seen the big bulk shipments of last year

Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

2010 Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan-

11 Feb

Mar

Apr0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Packaged volume Bulk volume

mill

ions

of l

itres

Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

2010 Fe

b

Mar

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan-

11 Feb

Mar

Apr0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Packaged volume Bulk volume

mill

ions

of l

itres Bulk exports have declined 4m

litres from their peak in Jan 11

Recent Developments: More SB Exported – there is less wine available to export

Apr

May

June Ju

l

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c -

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20062007200820092010

% o

f Pro

ducti

on E

xpor

ted

Recent Developments: More SB Exported – there is less wine available to export

Apr

May

June Ju

l

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June July

Aug

Sept Oct

Nov De

c -

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20062007200820092010

% o

f Pro

ducti

on E

xpor

ted

SB shipments are two monthsAhead of 2008 & 2009

• A lot depends on the vintage size … based on a 310,000 tonne vintage

• We expect there to be a surge of SB 2011exports in May/June given shortage of 2010 wines

• We expect a rise in bulk exports, at least in the short term

• But expect growing shortages later in the year which should provide some upside to wine prices (currency influences aside)

• That relief may come too late for some struggling wineries/growers …

The Year Ahead

• Being distributed today … please take 15 minutes to complete

• Why?

• Well in 2012 it is10 years since NZ Winegrowers was formed … its time

• An important part of a wider Strategic Review

• To perform our role well – we must know what our members expect of us…

Membership Survey