gli scenari del nucleare dopo fukushima: quali … adinolfi polimi 12_3...dopo fukushima: quali...

Ing. Roberto Adinolfi Ansaldo Nucleare S.p.A.

Gli scenari del nucleare

dopo Fukushima:

quali prospettive

per l'industria italiana?

ANSALDO NUCLEARE

overview

Ansaldo Nucleare Mission

Reliable and innovative solutions for plant design, operation and dismantling

Ansaldo Nucleare focus

Carbon-free power generation

Research on new generation nuclear technologies

Commitment to improving fuel efficiency & minimizing radwaste

Development of new, accident-proof

technologies & solutions

Upgrading of existing plants

with enhanced safety features

Safety assessment of new & operating plants & facilities

NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

(NPPs)

Ansaldo Nucleare offer: product lines

DECOMMISSIONING & RADIOACTIVE WASTE

MANAGEMENT

SERVICES TO NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

MARKETING & SALES

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

DESIGN & ENGINEERING

PROCUREMENT & CONTRACTING

FABRICATION

SITE IMPLEMENTATION

COMMISSIONING

New Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs)

Project implementation capabilities

ANSALDO , jointly with

AECL, completed

Cernavoda 1 in 1996 and

Cernavoda 2 in 2007

Cernavoda 2 is the only

plant put in operation in

Western Europe in the last

decade

Cernavoda NPP – Candu 6 – PHWR, 2 x 700 MWe

More than 250 man-years in engineering,

project management, construction and commissioning

Technological and design capabilities

• Italy participated since ’87 to the US

development of passive plant technologies,

both AP600 and SBWR

• Italian contribution involved also

experimental activities and prototype

construction of innovative components

Overall Ansaldo contribution to

Westinghouse Passive Technology

sums up to more than 500 man-years

AP600 Full Height, Full Pressure,

Integral Systems Test (SPES)

Isolation Condenser for SBWR (Ansaldo patent)

NE

W

NU

CL

EA

R

PO

WE

R P

LA

NT

S

Civil structure design:

modules & shield building

Sanmen NPP (China) Structural module (CA.01)

● AP1000 Sanmen NPP (China): o structural modules

o steel frame modules

o left-in-place formwork modules

o shield building roof

Main references

Technical excellence: AP1000

PRIMARY STEEL CONTAINMENT VESSEL

• Designed by Ansaldo Nucleare according to ASME code

• First-of-a-kind component

• 65 m in height & 40 m in diameter

• Leak-tight barrier to fission products released during Design Basis Accident & Severe Accident

• Part of the innovative Passive Containment Cooling System, it provides heat transfer surface for heat removal by natural circulation flow of air & water evaporation

Technical excellence: AP1000

PASSIVE RESIDUAL HEAT REMOVAL – HEAT EXCHANGER (PRHR-HX)

• Designed by Ansaldo Nucleare according to ASME code

• First-of-a-kind component

• Very high integrity (part of the Reactor Coolant System pressure boundary)

• Integral part of the innovative Passive Core Cooling System

• Driven by natural circulation flow, it removes core decay heat in case of steam generators failure

• Total heat exchange surface of 476 m2

Technical excellence: ITER

VACUUM VESSEL

• ITER, a Nuclear Fusion Plant under construction at Cadarache (France), is the largest

research project on Nuclear Fusion Technology in the world

• Its innovative pressure vessel has size and close tolerances never matched before

• Specifically developed stainless steel, state-of-the-art joining and NDT technologies

• Designed and built according to code RCC-MR, ESPN (French Nuclear Pressure

Components) standard & French safety rules

Accelerator Driven System

Development of sub-critical systems using Lead or LBE coolant carried out in the frame of FP5, FP6, FP7 Projects.

Recent FP7 Project:

ELSY Project (6th FP)

European Lead System

(Demonstration of technical feasibility of LFR)

LEADER Project (7th FP)

ALFRED (Advanced Lead Fast Reactor European Demonstrator)

ELFR (European Lead Fast Reactor – Industrial Plant)

ESFR Project (7th FP)

European Sodium Fast Reactor

600 MWe LFR

Lead-cooled Fast Reactor

120 MWe

LFR

Lead-cooled Fast Reactor

~ 1500 MWe SFR

Sodium Fast Reactor

600 MWe

AP1000

Advanced Passive Plant

EPP

European Passive Plant (AP1000 EU)

1117 MWe

1117 MWe

PWR

PWR

Development of

new generation nuclear reactors

Ansaldo Nucleare pathway to new generation

GE

N. I

II+

G

EN

. I

V

AD

S

CDT Project - FASTEF (MYRRHA) Pilot Plant

Fast Spectrum Transmutation Experimental Facility

Facility for proving Lead and LBE technology and to test EFIT Prototypical

Components for industrial Transmutation (ADS Sub-critical and Critical Reactor Pilot Plant)

LBEFR

Lead-Bismuth Eutectic FR

100

MWth

Services to Nuclear Power Plants

SE

RV

ICE

S T

O

NU

CL

EA

R

PO

WE

R P

LA

NT

S

Plant life assessment and extension

Embalse NPP - (Argentina) Installation of new Generator Excitation System

Embalse NPP - (Argentina):

● PLEX 1st Phase Condition assessment & residual

life evaluation

● PLEX 2nd Phase Turbine Digital Electro Hydraulic Control System (DEHC) replacement Generator Excitation System including digital Automated Voltage Regulator (AVR) replacement Feedwater and Condensate System upgrading (in progress) High Pressure and Low Pressure Turbine repowering (in progress)

References

SE

RV

ICE

S T

O

NU

CL

EA

R

PO

WE

R P

LA

NT

S

Emergency power systems

EUREX Nuclear Facility (Italy) Emergency Diesel Generator for NSAI

● Cernavodă NPP - Units 1&2 (Romania): design of stand-by diesel generators

● Eurex Nuclear Facility (Italy): emergency diesel generator for New Storage Plant (NPS) for LILW liquid waste

● Eurex Nuclear Facility (Italy): emergency diesel generator for NSAI (New Water Supply Systems)

Main references Plants and Facilities

Decommissioning & radwaste management

DE

CO

MM

ISS

ION

ING

&

RA

DW

AS

TE

M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

Caorso NPP (Italy)

Waste management facility

● Caorso NPP (Italy): waste management facility

● Caorso NPP (Italy): Phosphoric Acid Decontamination System (PHADEC)

Main references

DE

CO

MM

ISS

ION

ING

&

RA

DW

AS

TE

M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

Instrumentation & control

Covra Habog Storage Facility

Borssele (The Netherlands):

nuclear cranes control systems

● Caorso NPP (Italy): Phosphoric Acid Decontamination Facility (PHADEC)

● Ignalina NPP (Lithuania): crane for the handling of Spent Nuclear Fuel

● Covra Habog Storage Facility Borssele (The Netherlands): nuclear cranes control systems for Radwaste Storage Facilities

Main references

DE

CO

MM

ISS

ION

ING

&

RA

DW

AS

TE

M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

Containers for LILW storage

Containers for radioactive waste

● Containers for Italian nuclear sites

Main references

21

Genova, September 4th 2012

International nuclear power market trends after the Fukushima accident

Genova

22 2012_09_04_International nuclear power market trends_v1.pptx

Before the future Fukushima tragedy, worldwide nuclear capacity was concentrated mostly in 4 locations: US, France / Europe, Japan, Russia

Nuclear Plants

Source : IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis

World mapping of nuclear installed base – May 2012

> 384 operating reactors in

30 countries if excluding Japan

(vs 444 reactors in 30 countries

before the Fukushima disaster)

> 322 GWe net capacity if

excluding Japan (vs 373 pre-

Fukushima )

> 58% of reactors (66% of

capacity) located in the USA and

Western Europe (without Japan)

> No more reactor operating in

Japan as of now (last operating

one put in maintenance early

May)

KEY FIGURES


Since Fukushima, the operating nuclear base has decreased by 5% - restarts of idled reactors in Japan is a question mark

Number and capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide

> Including Japanese reactors damaged by the tsunami or shutdown on a long term basis by government request, we observe a net substraction of 24 GW (29 reactors) to the operating base

> Shutdowns are concentrated in Japan (14.6 GW, 18 reactors), Germany (8.3 GW, 8 reactors) and the UK (0.9 GW, 3 reactors)

> Additions are in China (1.6 GW, 2 reactors), Iran (0.9 GW, 1 reactor), Russia (0.5 GW, 1 reactor) and South Korea (1.9 GW, 2 reactors)

421629444

Operating reactors

in May 2012

Commissionning Shutdowns / long

term suspensions

Operating reactors

pre Fukushima

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Operating reactors

in May 2012

355 GW

Commissionning

5 GW

Shutdowns / long

term suspensions

24 GW

Operating reactors

pre Fukushima

373 GW

GWe # reactors

Source : WNA, WNN, IAEA, Roland Berger analysis


Iran 1 (915)

Netherlands 1 (452)

Slovenia 1 (676)

Armenia 1 (376)

Argentina 2 (935)

Bulgaria 2 (1,906)

Brazil 2 (1,896) South Africa 2 (1,842)

Romania 2 (1,305)

Mexico 2 (1,600)

Pakistan 3 (725)

Hungary 4 (1,889)

Finland 4 (2,676)

Slovak Republic 4 (1,656) Switzerland 5 (3,220)

Czech Republic 6 (3,707)

Belgium 7 (5,755)

Spain 8 (7,442)

Germany 9 (12,008)

Sweden 10 (9,101)

Ukraine 15 (13,168)

United Kingdom 16 (10,058)

Canada 18 (12,569) India 20 (4,281)

China (incl.Taiwan) 21 (16,671)

Korea RO (South) 23 (19,921)

Russian Federation 33 (23,917)

Japan 37 (32,970)

France 58 (63,110)

United States 104 (98,658)

MAJOR NUCLEAR COUNTRIES

SMALL NUCLEAR COUNTRIES

Following the Fukushima disaster, the hierarchy among nuclear countries has not been dramatically modified – Germany and Japan as main impacted countries

Country breakdown of Installed base – May 2012 view [# units ; MWe net]

∑ = 384 reactors

322 GWe

(if excl. Japan)


∑ = 421 reactors

355 GWe

-18 J

-8 G

25

Does nuclear generation still have a future?


The nuclear market after Fukushima is still expanding in the BRIC countries: 60 GW of nuclear capacity are under construction worldwide, China accounting for nearly 50% of total capacity

Argentina 1 (692)

Iran 1 (915)

Brazil

2 (630)

10 (8,714)

7 (5,074)

4 (5,050)

3 (3,565)

2 (840)

2 (1,900)

France 1 (1,650)

Slovak Republic

Russian Federation

India

Korea RO (South)

United States

1 (1,245)

Ukraine

Finland 1 (1,600)

Pakistan

China (incl. Taiwan) 28 (29,234)

Country breakdown of the NPP under construction – May 2012 [# units ; MWe net]

COMMENTS

> Most of NPPs under construction are

located in Eastern Asia and Eastern

Europe :

– China (mainland and Taiwan) is the

main country for reactors under

construction

– Significant weight of Russia, South

Korea and India

– Very few projects in developed

countries

> All under construction NPP should be in

operation by 2020

∑ = 62 reactors 60 GWe



Between 206 and 277 reactors are expected to start operating between 2012 and 2030

LOW SCENARIOS: NUMBER OF REACTORS STARTING OPERATIONS FROM 2012 TO 2030

HIGH SCENARIOS: NUMBER OF REACTORS STARTING OPERATIONS FROM 2012 TO 2030

Source: Roland Berger nuclear database

247

206

RB low scenario post Fukushima

New RB low scenario

278277

RB high scenario post Fukushima

New RB high scenario

Number of reactors commissionned


In 2030, nuclear capacity will be down by 13% to 35% depending on scenario compared to what was expected before Fukushima, vs 7% to 21% estimated in April 2011

135 134

-5% -1%

128

North America

Western Europe

Eastern Asia

Africa

World [GWe]

Capacity in GW electric, by 2030

Source: Roland Berger nuclear database

Pre Fukushima Low scenario post Fukushima High scenario post Fukushima

Eastern Europe

598

Pre

Fukushima

685

-13%

High

445

Low

-35%

50

105 134

-21% -63%

77104 118

-12% -34%

Eastern Europe

126 153

-25%

203

-38%

579

-47% -17%

255

-60% 0%

568980

-30% +12%

Middle East & South Asia

South America


The stress tests are unlikely to change the fate of existing plants but will involve extra costs, especially in the EU

Stress tests carried out in the EU until December 2011

TYPES OF TESTS

> First step: assessment and proposals for safety improvement by nuclear operators

> Second step: independent review of step 1 by national regulators

> Third step: European peer review of the national reports submitted by regulators

CONCLUSIONS

> New guidance on natural hazards assessments

> Re-evaluation of natural hazards and relevant plant provisions at least every 10 years

> Urgent implementation of the recognised measures to protect containment integrity

> New measures allowing prevention of accidents and limitation of their consequences in case of extreme natural hazards such as: – bunkered equipment – protected mobile equipment and

emergency response centres – rescue teams and equipment rapidly

available

MAIN IMPACTS

> No change in lifetime

> However, significant investments needed to upgrade some existing plants

> O&M costs will also rise

> Availability will decrease

> 3 main areas of concern: – natural hazards – loss of safety systems – severe accident

management

Which destiny

for the Italian industry after

Fukushima?

The Italian singularities

• Italy has a primary energy

dependence around 85%, vs. a

53% UE average

• Italy is the only European

country which does not rely on

coal and/or nuclear for the

bulk of its electricity

consumption

• Italy is the only major

European country which

largely depends on electricity

import

Italy’s electricity generation

by primary source.

Year 2009 (GWh;%)

Italy was among the firsts in the ‘60ies to jump in civil nuclear….

….and was the first to jump out,after Chernobyl!

An Italian Renaissance for Nuclear Power?

• The instability of oil and gas prices was the root cause for the

Government decision to promote the restart of nuclear power

production in Italy.

• Recent political events in North Africa and Middle East

underscore the need for increased security of supply

The accident in Japan poses

serious doubts about new

plants to be built in Italy

A new Dark Age for the Italian nuclear industry?

Which nuclear scenarios in Europe?

• As a consequence of the Japanese accident, nuclear plans

will be under review in all European countries

• Safety of operating plants will be the focus, resulting in

upgrading of structures and systems, but also in the phase

out and decommissioning of the most ancient plants

Many European utilities will be quickly facing the choice:

to get out from nuclear (alongside with plant aging), or

to reduce risks by renewing their fleet

The essential role of the industry in Europe

Local industry involvement will be mandatory to sustain the

nuclear option in any European country, including Italy:

To create supporting infrastructure for plant safe operation

To foster the huge organizational effort required to the

States

To get consensus from social stakeholders

There is no national program which can sustain by itself

investments required to European nuclear industries, after so

many years of stagnation

Need for European supply chains

Which role for the Italian industry?

• Italian industry was able to survive to the Chernobyl accident,

by going abroad

• In the rather weak nuclear manufacturing scenario in Europe

(apart from France), Italian industry can play a relevant role,

even more in terms of quality than size.

• Ansaldo Nucleare has a long tradition of fruitful parnerships

with Italian and foreign industries

• We can count on Finmeccanica support as an European

leader in the high technology industry

Our goal is to favour strategic links between high quality

Italian industries and other European champions

to create a true European supply chain

Our Key Objectives

• Maintain a tight link with the safety reassessment imposed by

the Japanese accident, to fully understand how to improve

our industry

• Assist plant operators in their difficult decisions on how to

manage the risks, and deliver value through safety

• Assure an effective and economic decommissioning of the

older plants

• Remain on the technology frontier of nuclear industry, to

stimulate new competences and preserve a systematic

approach to our business:

– Generation IV fast reactors

– Fusion technology

As a conclusion…

Renaissance

doesn’t mean

Growth,

it means

Creativity

through

Renewment

Thanks for your attention

39

Back up slides


Germany is strongly impacted by the Fukushima disaster - all reactors should be shutdown by 2022

OVERVIEW ON GERMANY CURRENT STATUS

Recent development

> public opinion has been for years hostile to nuclear

energy

> following Fukushima, government decided to

relaunch a progressive phase out of nuclear energy

> first plants were shut downs in august 2011 (8

reactors) – replaced with renewable energy

RB scenario

> German decision to shut down existing plants

considered as serious

> no new capacities added

> progressive phase out : no operating reactors by

2022

CHANGES IN GERMAN INSTALLED CAPACITY [# REACTORS]

Scenario considered for Germany

7

5

3

1

2

4

6

8

0

2030

0

29

0

28

0

27

0

26

0

25

0

24

0

23

0

22

0

21

3

20

6

19

6

18

7

9

7

16

8

15

8

17

9

13

9

2012

9

14

Operating

Under construction

Source: WNA, press releases , Roland Berger nuclear database

LOW & HIGH


France traditional pronuclear trend could be impacted by the recent political changes

OVERVIEW ON FRANCE CURRENT STATUS

Recent development

> stress tests post Fukushima: no major changes

expected

> election of François Hollande with a political platform

less favorable to nuclear energy:

– anticipated shutdown of Fessenheim

– share of nuclear energy in the energy mix should be

50% by 2025

– achievement of Flamanville

RB low scenario

> electricity consumption in 2025 should be xxx GWe,

thus nuclear needed capacity will be xxx GWe

> shutdown by 2025 of all nuclear plants built before

1985, plus CRUAS 2 & 4 (40 years life duration)

> achievement of Flamanville in 2016

> high scenario: only Fessenheim to be closed in 2017/18

CHANGES IN FRENCH INSTALLED CAPACITY [# REACTORS]

Scenario considered for France

29

0

2030

29

26

29

28

29

27

29

29 25

29

24

31

23

35

22

40

21

40

20

48

19

54

18

57

17

58

16

59

15

59

14

59

13

59

2012

59

20

40

60

Operating Under construction

Source: WNA, IAEA, Socialist Party's 60 proposals, Roland Berger nuclear database

LOW

HIGH

57

0

2030

57

26

57

28

57

27

57

29 25

57

24

57

23

57

22

57

21

57

20

57

19

57

18

57

17

58

16

59

15

59

14

59

13

59

2012

59

20

40

60


The UK is facing challenges to replace its nuclear facilities – new build have been delayed due to financial constraints

OVERVIEW ON UK CURRENT STATUS

Recent development

> 3 reactors closed recently (924 MWe): Oldbury 1-2,

Wylfa 2

> Financial difficulties for planned projects: "Horizon"

and "NuGeneration" projects are seriously threatened

(3 reactors in total). EDF has not announced any

change yet (4 reactors)

> Life extensions of existing reactors are expected

RB scenario

> EDF reactors to enter in service in 2018, 2019, 2020

and 2022

> Other projects not before 2030

> Life extension on a case by case approach based on

EDF "high confidence scenario" for existing plants in

the UK

CHANGES IN UK INSTALLED CAPACITY [# REACTORS]

Scenario considered for the United Kingdom

20

15

5

0

2030 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20

13

19

13

18

17

17

17

16

17

15

17

14

16

13

16

2012

16

3

10

3 3

7 7 7 7 7 9 9


Source: EDF, WNA, press releases , Roland Berger nuclear database

LOW

HIGH 20

15

5

0

2030 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20

17

19

17

18

20

17

18

16

18

15

17

14

16

13

16

2012

16

7 10

7 7

11 11 11 11 11 13 13


Russia did not change its plan in nuclear development after the Fukushima accident

OVERVIEW ON RUSSIA CURRENT STATUS

Recent development

> Following Fukushima, authorities announced their

intention to improve security – back-up power and

water supply as main concerns – and to extend the

life of the existing reactors

> The Kaliningrad plant is now under construction

> Kalinin 4 is operating since november 2011

> Russia is strongly pushing exports in nuclear energy,

with plans in 7 countries at least1)

RB scenario

> No delays for reactors under construction

> 2 years delays in RB low scenario for "planned" or

"announced" reactors

CHANGES IN RUSSIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# REACTORS]

Scenario considered for the Russia

BACK UP RUSSIA

100

28

85

27

83

26

74

25

65

24

63

23

61

80

0

2030

85

29

85

20

60

40

60

19

59

21

59

20 17

51 51

18

51

14

50

16

50

15

46

13

45

2012

43

22



1) Ukraine, Belarus, India, China, Turkey, VIetnam, Bangladesh

LOW

HIGH

50

16

50

15

51

14

63

74 80 65

29 28 27 26

46

13

45

2012

43

83

61 60 59 59

40

51

20

0

60

2030

51

24 23 22 21 25 17

83

20 19 18

83 100

83


The Fukushima disaster did not have much impact on Indian ambitions in nuclear energy

OVERVIEW ON INDIA CURRENT STATUS

Recent development

> India has affirmed plans to boost nuclear capacity to 63

GW by 2032, doubling current capacity in service by

2015

> 2 reactors entered recently into construction: Kakrapar

4 and Rajasthan 7(630 MW each)

> Some delays are expected for reactors under

construction due to public protests (Kudankalam 1&2).

All reactors being built in India are potentially

concerned by such delays as India is a democratic

country with strong power given to local authorities

RB scenarios

> High: considering delays, about a half of the reactors

under construction or planned enter service by 2030

> Low: all reactors are somehow delayed

CHANGES IN INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# REACTORS]

Scenario considered for India

60

80

0

2030

49

29

49

28

49

27

49

26

49

25

49

40

20

24

49

23

49

22

49

21

49

20

49

19

49

18

50

17

44

16

39

15

36

14

31

13

30

2012

27



LOW

27

62 62 62 80

60 62 62 62 62

30 31

13 19 18 17 16

39

15

36

14

20

49

62

40

62

44

62

50

29

0

2030 2012 27 26 25 24

62

22 21 20 28 23

HIGH


China is expected to rely strongly on nuclear energy in the future – 40 reactors expected to be in construction by the end of 2012

OVERVIEW ON GREATER CHINA CURRENT STATUS

Recent development

> stress tests following Fukushima : small impact on

projects under construction, delay on planned reactors

> Taiwan announced a progressive phase out

> 2 new reactors completed in mainland since

Fukushima, adding 1650 MWe to the total capacity

RB scenarios

> reactors under construction: delay assumed vs WNA

expected date of completion (2 years in low scenario, 1

year in high scenario)

> reactors planned or announced: new estimated starting

date for construction (based on WNA if available, RB

estimates otherwise) + 6 years estimated to complete

construction + delay due to potential post-Fukushima

potential measures (2 years in low scenario, 1 year in

high scenario)

CHANGES IN GREATER CHINA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# REACTORS]

Scenario considered for Greater China

50

0

2030 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

822)

2012

611)

100 93 93 93 94 94 93 93 95 95 96 97 97 96 88 93 93 93



1) 28 reactors already in construction in May, 12 more expected to start by the end of 2012. 21 reactors operating

LOW

HIGH

29 2030

0

50

100 98 99

28

99 99

27

99

26

99

25

99

24

99

23

99

22

99

21

99

20

99

19

99

18

99 90

99

16

99

15 17 13

84

2012

611)

14

2) 2 reactors under construction in Taiwan expected to be cancelled in RB low sceario

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