global and anz ip data trends - cisco · 2017. exabytes per month. offload traffic from mobile...

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Global and ANZ IP Data Trends: Drivers of Change Impacting the Network

Dr. Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy Cisco Live ANZ – IT Executive Symposium 5 March 2013

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2

Agenda

Drivers of Change on the Mobile Network

Cloud Infrastructure and Advanced Apps

Implications for Business and Government


Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

7.4 EB

0.9 EB

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 13X from 2012 to 2017

11.2 EB

4.7 EB

2.8 EB

1.6 EB

66% CAGR 2012–2017



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

3.4 EB

0.3 EB

APAC Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line APAC Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 17X from 2012 to 2017

5.3 EB

2.1 EB

1.2 EB

0.6 EB

76% CAGR 2012–2017



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Latin America (LATAM)Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)Middle East and Africa (MEA)Western Europe (WE)North America (NA)Asia Pacific (APAC)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (77%) from 2012–2017 APAC will Generate 47% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2017

18.7%

47.1%

12.4%

7.6% 6.5%

7.7%

66% CAGR 2012–2017



42.2

32.7

43.1

33.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012

Exab

ytes

per

mon

th

Projected in 2009Actual

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth



Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Users

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Connections

More Mobile Video



Top Trends


VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends

Device Diversification

Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic

Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks

The (Mobile) Internet of Things

Cloud readiness


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (.9%)Tablets (2.3%)Laptops (2.6%)M2M (16.5%)Smartphones (27.4%)Non-Smartphones (50.3%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share


8% CAGR 2012–2017

Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (.3%)Tablets (5.0%)Laptops (13.0%)M2M (28.0%)Smartphones (51.3%)Non-Smartphones (2.4%)

Australia Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 51% Share


8% CAGR 2012–2017



Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone

2017 2012

6.8 31

MBs per Month MBs per Month

M2M 64 330

Smartphone 342 2,660

4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114

Tablet 820 5,387

Laptop 2,503 5,731



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (2.2%)M2M (4.7%)Home Gateways (4.8%)Non-Smartphones (5.7%)Tablets (10.0%)Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%)Smartphones (48.3%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

(Figures in legend refer to traffic share in

2016.)

78% CAGR 2011–2016

2012 FORECAST


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (.2%)Non-Smartphones (1.4%)M2M (5.1%)Tablets (11.7%)Laptops (14.0%)Smartphones (67.5%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device In 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic


66% CAGR 2012–2017



0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (.1%)Non-Smartphones (.1%)M2M (8.3%)Tablets (13.7%)Laptops (39.5%)Smartphones (38.3%)

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device


43% CAGR 2012–2017



0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

0.014

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (.1%)Non-Smartphones (.4%)M2M (7.5%)Tablets (10.4%)Laptops (20.8%)Smartphones (60.8%)

New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device


50% CAGR 2012–2017








Cloud readiness


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r Con

nect

ions

4G3G2G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

57% 76%

23%

1%

33%

10%



0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

2-2.5G3-3.5G4G

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017

14%

45%

51%

10% 76%

4%








Cloud readiness


0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload 12% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 5% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011

12%

88%

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

2012 FORECAST


0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload 26% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 15% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

26%

64%



0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th



Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 33% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

46%

54%



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th



US Mobile Data Traffic Offload 66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 47% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012

66%

34%



0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

Mobile Data (70% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi (34% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic

40%

53%

7%


28% CAGR 2011–2016







Cloud readiness


By 2017, there will be 1.4 mobile connections (devices and M2M) for every member of the world’s population. North America has the most mobile connections per capita (2.2). The Middle East & Africa has the least (1.1).



39

56

20 22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ions

DevicesUsers

Australia Mobile Users and Devices Users Grow at 2% CAGR, Devices Grow at 8% CAGR 2.2 mobile connections/person








Cloud Readiness


Implications for the Network:

The Importance of Cloud


74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84%

26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic

Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 74% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 84% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017



Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms

• Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing • File sharing

(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking

(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music

• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat

(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing

(low-res video) • Advanced social networking

(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming

• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming

(multi player) • Advanced video chat

(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing

(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing

(high-res video) • Stream super HD video


Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket

Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~1900 kbps Upload Speed: ~600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms

Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket

Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms

Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket

Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms

• Text communications (email, instant messaging)

• Web browsing • File sharing

(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking

(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music

• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat

(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing

(low-res video) • Advanced social networking

(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming

• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming

(multi player) • Advanced video chat

(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing

(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing

(high-res video) • Stream super HD video


Fixed Speeds + Latency: Australia

Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Aver

age

Upl

oad

Spee

d (k

bps)

Average Download Speed (kbps)

Australia Ave download: 7.9mbps Ave upload: 1.2mbps Ave latency: 54ms


Fixed Speeds + Latency: New Zealand


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Aver

age

Upl

oad

Spee

d (k

bps)


New Zealand Ave download: 7.0mbps Ave upload: 1.3mbps Ave latency: 65ms


Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds


Singapore

Hong Kong

Japan

Australia Korea

Thailand

Taiwan

Malaysia Philippines

India

Indonesia

China

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Aver

age

Upl

oad

Spee

d (k

bps)


Other Countries Asia Pacific


Mobile Speeds + Latency: APAC Countries


Singapore

Hong Kong

Japan

Australia Korea

Thailand

Taiwan

Malaysia Philippines

India

Indonesia

China

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Aver

age

Upl

oad

Spee

d (k

bps)


100ms - 159ms Above 160ms


Mobile Speeds + Latency: Australia


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Aver

age

Upl

oad

Spee

d (k

bps)


Australia Ave download: 2.9mbps Ave upload: 1.0mbps Ave latency: 161ms


Summary/Implications


Summary and Implications

More users, each using more bandwidth Each user will have more/more powerful devices Video and cloud driving demand and consumption 4G will dramatically increase data consumption Advanced Cloud Apps Required Advanced Networks Off-load increasingly important—small cell complement Need more Spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in access Networks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”


Thank you.

global and anz ip data trends - cisco · 2017. exabytes per month. offload traffic from mobile...

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