WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers

http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html

WMO

J. Lengoasa

WMO Deputy Secretary-General jlengoasa@wmo.int

WMO Climate Investment Funds

Resilience: New Tools for Managing the Unavoidable • Need for variety of investments in climate resilience

• More resilient economies which can:

– absorb weather-related shocks

– adapt better to longer-term changes in temperature and rainfall patterns

more easily

– bounce back sooner.

Key focus of cities and coastal areas

WMO

Disaster Risk Management

WEF, 2011

WMO Building Resilience

• WEF, 2011 (adapted)

Early Warning

WMO

5

Economic losses related to disasters are increasing…

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

4 11 1424

47

88

160

345

103

495

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

decade

0.05

2.66

0.17

1.73

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

decade

… but we are saving lives

WMO

The previous two decades recorded highest number of National 24hour Precipitation Record

Highest number of broken National Maximum Temp Records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades

Lowest number of broken National Minimum Temp Records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades

(Source: WMO country data).

More hot days and more heat waves

Less cool nights

Intensification of heavy rainfall

Our Changing Climate

WMO Global Temperature Trends

Temperature anomaly by decade over six geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania. Countries with no data provided are blank. The anomalies are computed with respect to 1961-1990 period (WMO country data)

WMO

Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for the 2001-2010 decade

Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2001-

2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-based analysis as

normalized departures in mm/year focussing on 1951-2000 base period. (Source:

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Deutscher

Wetterdienst, Germany)

WMO

Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010

Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-

based analysis as percentage of normals

focussing on 1951-2000 base period. (Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre,

Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany) 2

3

4

5

Major floods in Many regions

WMO Record low sea ice extent

2007

2012

Long Term Average

WMO

11

Climate Prediction Framework

WMO

• From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation

• From few to many customers/users/stakeholders

• Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades

ahead

• Climate change to climate change and climate variability

• Broad climate to characteristics of weather; including extremes

and impacts

• Operational delivery – regularly updated monitoring, forecasts,

products & services

Climate Services: A Revolution in the Application of Climate Science

WMO

13

A global integrated approach

WMO The ‘pillars’ of the GFCS

WMO

16

User Interface Platform

WMO

Climate Services Information System

WMO

Research, modelling and prediction

• Regional climate information

• Regional sea-level rise

• Cryosphere

• Atmosphere and climate

• Changes in water availability

• Prediction and attribution of extreme events

• Climate and socio-economic factors

WMO

Observations and information systems

The WMO Integrated Global Observing System integrates data collection and exchange for improved weather forecasts and climate services.

WMO Capacity development

• Strengthening of institutional and technical infrastructure

• Human resources development & renewal

• Continuing education and training • Special needs of LDCs • Gender issues

WMO Implementation and partnerships

The GFCS Will build on the experiences

of National Meteorological Services Will support climate research

in NMSs – especially in the developing world All the WMO’s constituent

bodies are expected to play important roles United Nations and other will

be important partners

WMO

Climate Services: Unlocking the potential

• Increasingly complex science, modelling and prediction systems

• Increasingly complex user requirements, requiring multi-disciplinary and multi-scale approaches

• Partnerships in science and delivery are essential • Dialogue with end users is vital

WMO Climate Information Value Chain

Source: PPCR, World Bank (2012)

WMO

© Crown copyright Met Office

10 model multi-model ensemble-mean prediction

Dealing with climate vulnerability now February 2009 forecast for Horn of Africa

March-April-May ‘long’ rains

category probabilities: drought twice

as likely as flood

Regional Climate Outlook Forum consensus

Observed rainfall Anomalies (mm)

Reuters May 12, 2009: Somalia’s worst drought in a decade is pushing growing numbers of children into near-famine conditions and deepening the humanitarian crisis caused by political violence, the United Nations warned …

Estimated food security condition, April-June 2009

WMO

© Crown copyright Met Office

• Seasonal forecasts of La Nina from August 2010

• Ensemble mean rainfall anomalies (mm/day) for Nov – Jan from October 2010.

NB: 2.5 mm/day = 230mm accumulated

Queensland flooding: A predictable event?

WMO

Transition to a low-carbon global economy

WBGU, 2009

WMO

Implementation Partnerships

WMO WMO

Thank you