global change: new operations and modeling challenges
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Global Change: New Operations and Modeling Challenges. Ants Leetmaa Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton, NJ. OVERVIEW. Grand Challenges for 21 st Century population growth altered biogeochemical cycles - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Global Change: New Operations and Modeling Challenges
Ants Leetmaa
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Princeton, NJ
OVERVIEW
Grand Challenges for 21st Century
• population growth
• altered biogeochemical cycles
• a changing climate
A prototype forecast in 2030
Existing capabilities to meet the challenge
Institutional challenges for the NWS and NOAA
Population Growth and Associated Issues
•9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase)
•Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations
•Food availability requires sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300%
•Energy & Security
•Others•Water availability•health threats – pollution, others
Drier
WetterAnnual change in runoff (cm/yr)
Possible Global Warming ImpactsAnnual Surface Air Temperature (deg C)
Conditions at double pre-industrial values of CO2: GFDL model
Summer Soil Moisture (cm)
Winter runoff (cm/yr)
These changes will present new opportunities and threats
Possible Hazards -Summer 2030: hot, dry and unhealthy (after 7th consecutive year of droughts)
Swimming and Fishing prohibited
African bacteria alertsExpect fisheries downturn; health
threats
Health warning: Limit outdoor activities; expect brownouts
Frequent floodings and Asian dust threats continue
Major fires Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust
major fisheries regime change likely
Air quality alerts – 75% of days
High danger of toxic CO2 releases
ALERT FORECASTs: US Economy – code orange; US health – code orange; International Economy – code red: Global Security – code red
Next Generation Forecast Products
• Seasonal biomass production• Drought with interactive vegetation• Global atmospheric chemical transports• Health impacts including effects of global and local
aerosol & ozone transports, biomass emissions, and temperature
• Sea level - flooding• Coastal ecosystem health• Fisheries and ecosystem regime change likelihoods• Geo-engineering accidents
Extending the Product Suite:Institutional Challenges
• Your focus on current product delivery will limit investment in new areas
• New products entail risks
• Technology progresses faster than NOAA
• Challenge for NOAA is to develop a common architecture to foster transition to NOAA-next.
Some Issues to Ponder
• What will be NOAA’s most important future product suites? (hint – economy, health, environment)
• How will you develop the appropriate modeling and product delivery mechanisms? (hint – it won’t all be done in house)
• How are you going to work with the rest of NOAA to meet these future challenges
The U.S. Experiences Strong Decadal Fluctuations in Climate
Wintertime Surface Temperature Anomalies (deg. C)
These resulted from•Natural climate variability
•Anthropogenic causes
•Volcanic and solar effects
Major features were•Warm 1950’s and 1990’s
•Cool 1960’s and 1970’s
NOAA Uses Computer Models to Develop a Predictive Understanding of Climate Fluctuations
GFDL’s model simulates U.S. temperature changes when forced with observed ocean temperatures - same model is used for ENSO fcsts
Observed
Model
1960-1980 1980-2000
Improved Predictive Understanding Leads to a Decadal Forecasting Capability and Increased Confidence in
Global Warming Projections
Model forced with observed ocean temperatures
A “prediction” starting in 1860 forced with observed radiative forcings - note
cool 60s&70s with rapid warming in 1990s
Decadal Average Wintertime Temperature Anomaly for U.S. (deg C.)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
ObservedSimulatedPredicted
Observed - determined from atmospheric reanalysis
Simulated - model forced with observed ocean temperatures
Predicted - model forced with greenhouse gases, volcanoes, solar fluctuations from 1860 to present
Seasonality of Long Term Temperature Trends
Seasonality of Model Projections
•Seasonality and spatial structure of warming similar in model runs and observations
•Model runs started in 1860 and run forward with “observed’ forcings (GHGs, aerosols, solar, ozone)
Summary
A richness of tropical forced responses are important on a variety of time scales, e.g. ENSO like physics remains important
Hadley and Walker cells slow down with global warming• Tropical convection becomes more zonally symmetric
Seasonal circulation patterns become more zonally symmetric• Subtropical highs expand northward (or southward)– especially summer/fall –
depending on warming (or cooling) of tropics• Mid-latitudes experience greater drying tendencies with warming
Models are starting to be capable of explaining decadal and regional climate variability• this will enable more credible attribution (anthropogenic or natural variability) of
longer term trends
ENSO temporal structure doesn’t change significantly• Suggestion of stronger and longer duration events with warming – predictability
possibly is greater• Increased chances of more “100 year” events• Teleconnection patterns are more robust with warming• Decadal variability of ENSO can confound warming signal and is important in
decadal mid-latitude climate fluctuations (droughts, etc.)
End
Predictability of Atmospheric Variations:Present and Future
Tony Rosati and Gabriel Vecchi
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
NOAA/OAR
Princeton, NJ 08542
Climate Scenarios Being Run for 2007 IPCC
What can we learn from these about the slow and fast modes of climate variations?
Preliminary Results from IPCC 2007 Runs
The slow modes - changes to the general circulation• Hadley and Walker cells• Season means
The fast modes -impacts of change on climate variability (ENSO)
Changes to Hadley and Walker Circulations
2x
1860
1860 Mean
4x minus 1860
% change
Slow down of tropical/subtropical circulations associated with redistributions of tropical rainfall
( 500 mb vertical velocity field)
2X
Changes in Mean Annual Cycle: DJF
Surface temperature
rainfall
Z200U200
Note the development of a zonally and hemispherically symmetric component to the circulation anomalies – with strong impacts in midlatitudes
Surface temperature
rainfall
Z200U200
The poleward expansion of the subtropical highs is most pronounced in fall and summer. 1860 relative to 1990 shows equatorward movement of highs.
Changes in Mean Annual Cycle: SON
Seasonality of Model Projections
•Seasonality and spatial structure of warming similar in model runs and observations
•Model runs started in 1860 and run forward with “observed’ forcings (GHGs, aerosols, solar, ozone)
Changes to Tropical Variability with Planetary Warming
reversed 1860 spinup 1990 CO2 CO2 increasing 1%/yr
NIN
O3
SS
TP
ower
Spe
ctru
m
1
4
0.5
2
8
Increasing CO2
Period (yr)
135yr
NINO3 SST Spectrum Changes
Period(years) 1860
1990
greenhouseobs
Changes to Spatial Structure and Amplitude of ENSO(As evidenced in 500 mb vertical velocity field)
2X
4X
Changes in Amplitude of ENSO Teleconnections: DJF