global change pressures in the city of the future
TRANSCRIPT
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GLOBAL CHANGE PRESSURESIN THE CITY OF THE FUTURE
Kala Vairavamoorthy
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Contents
Current conditions in LDCs
Future conditions in LDCs
Issues of Climate Change
The way forward
SWITCH
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Slide 3
Contents
Current conditions in LDCs
Future conditions in LDCs
Issues of Climate Change
The way forward
SWITCH
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Slide 4
Percent of global total WithoutAccess to Drinking Water per region
42%
25%
19%
6%
4% 4%
East Asia/PacificSub-Sahran AfricaSouth AsiaLACMENA
Others
1.1 billion without
access to water
Source: UNDP (2003)
"MiddleEast and North Africa"
Latin Americaand theCaribbea
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42%
37%
12%
5% 2%
East Asia/PacificSouth Asia
Sub-Sahran AfricaLACMENAOthers
2.4 billion without
access to sanitation
Source: UNDP (2003)
Percent of global total WithoutAccess to Sanitation per region
"M eEast an Nort A rca"
Latin Americaand theCaribbea
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24-Hour Water Availability (2001)
Source: McIntosh (2003)
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Coverage with Piped Water
Source: McIntosh (2003)
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Non-Revenue Water (2001)
Source: McIntosh (2003)
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Most wastewater is not treated!
Water
Treatment
Distribution network
Sewer Network
CentralisedWWTP
Effluentdischarge
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While 85% of all wastewater is not treated!
.and the consequences are clear..
0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Primary/ secondary treatment Tertiary treatment
World-wideEU
95%
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Slide 13
Is this the future of our
water resources?
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Slide 14
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Contents
Current conditions in LDCs
Future conditions in LDCs
Issues of Climate Change
The way forward
SWITCH
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Slide 16
World population prospects 1950 - 2030
Source: UN (2004)
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G h f b l i
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Growth of urban agglomerations(population in millions)
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Water-stress facts
Africa 12 countries in a Water Stress situation. Further 10 countries will be stressed by 2025
(1.1 billion people or 2/3s of population).
India Largest number of water-deprived persons inthe world in next 25 years.
By 2050, half of population will be living inurban areas and face acute water problems.
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Water availability
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Deteriorating Infrastructure
Buried urban infrastructure networks havedeclined rapidly over the last 20 years
aging, poor construction practices, lack of qualitycontrol, little or no maintenance, and operation atcapacities higher than design intended
For example in Canada upgrading systems toappropriate standards over the next 15 years
could cost around $75 billion.
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Slide 23
American Water Works Service Co., Inc. (2002)
Main Breaks since 1965 (USA)
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Contents
Current conditions in LDCs
Future conditions in LDCs
Issues of Climate Change
The way forward
SWITCH
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Slide 25
IS92a scenario
Changes in Runoff due to CC - 2080
Source: Hadley Centre (2003)
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Water stress due to CC - 2080
IS92a scenario Source: Hadley Centre (2003)
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CC developing countries
60% of the additional people at risk offlooding are expected to be in Southern Asiaand 20% in South East Asia (2080)
Additional 3 billion people could sufferincreased water stress by 2080. (NorthernAfrica, Middle East and India)
Africa, Middle East and India expected toexperience significant reductions in yields
Additional 290 million people exposed tomalaria by the 2080. (China and Central Asia)
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CC and developing countries
Poor people will be hardest hit as they aremost vulnerable (lower capacity to adapt).
lack of financial, institutional and technologicalcapacity and access to knowledge
While climate change is important in the long
run, there are more immediate developmentpriorities that affect human welfare.
Is it responsible to argue for adaptivemeasures when predictions are so uncertain ?
d
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Slide 29
Uncertainties in predictions
Emissions
Uncertainty due to emissions
GCM/Downscaling
Decision
Making
Hydrological
WR
Science uncertainty
Uncertainty due tonatural variabili ty
S i t i t
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Science uncertainty
Source: Hadley Centre (2003)
Science uncertainty
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Science uncertainty
Source: Hadley Centre (2003)
Relative frequency of predicted
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Relative frequency of predictedchanges in daily rainfall
seasonal average ( blue bars )extreme 99 th percentile ( red bars )
ensemble of climate model
C t t
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Contents
Current conditions in LDCs
Future conditions in LDCs
Issues of Climate Change
The way forward
SWITCH
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Current practise of urban water management,
use and abuse is not sustainable
But is this surprising if we realize that.
the current system was designed when theworld population was below 1 Billion..
.and the term Sustainability
was not invented yet
hil d d f Gl b l
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.while present days syndromes of GlobalChange were still unknown
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Challenge
There is a need for win-win actions thataddress directly the more immediate watermanagement problems while preparing for theconsequences of longer term climate changes.
Wise to make decisions on "no-regrets"adaptive measures, or decisions which preventfuture options being closed.
l b l
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Focus on vulnerability
Vulnerability management - holistic andintegrated activities
Proactive or anticipatory adaptation aims to buildresilience and reduce vulnerability by minimizingrisk and maximizing adaptive capacity.
Study urban environment as complete system,to observe and analyze the interconnections andinterdependencies among urban infrastructuresand identify points of vulnerability
Contents
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Slide 38
Contents
Current conditions in LDCs
Future conditions in LDCs
Issues of Climate Change
The way forward
SWITCH
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SWITCH
EU 6 th Community Research
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Slide 40
Framework Programme
Theme : Global Change and Eco-systems
Specific theme: Integrated Urban Water Mgt
SWITCH: S ustainable Urban W ater Management
I mproves Tomorrows Citys H ealth
Implementation: 2006 2010
Coordinator: UNESCO-IHE
SWITCH Consortium
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SWITCH Consortium
32 Partners 17 from EU 12 from Developing countries
3 from other countries 9 Demo-cities 10 Study sites Some 40 PhD studies 17 different countries
Project Duration: 5 years (2006 2010)Budget: 23 Million Euro
SWITCH
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SWITCHOverall Goal and Mission
The SWITCH Integrated Project aims to contribute to theachievement of sustainable and effective urban watermanagement (UWM) schemes in The City of thefuture (projection 30-50 years from now).
The approach will be to develop efficient urban watersystems and services (city level) in the context of thecitys geographical and ecological setting (river basinlevel), which are robust and adjustable to a range ofglobal change pressures (global level ).
SWITCH calls for a Paradigm Shift
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SWITCH calls for a Paradigm Shift
System must be robust, flexible and adaptable toglobal change pressures.
Must consider interventions over the entire urbanwater cycle interrelations (e.g. water use =wastewater production = water resourcedeterioration = increased costs of drinking water
production). Reconsider water use - make water more
productive (DM, reuse.)
Source separation and treatment for reuse -manage individual waste flows (converting wastecomponents into products)
SWITCH approach and methodology
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Activities
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1 Urban water paradigm shift
2 Urban water supply & use
3 Storm Water Management
4 Water use in sanitation and wastemanagement
5 Urban water environments and planning
6 Governance and institutional change
Examples of activities
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Examples of activities
Bank filtration and soil-aquifer treatment:
Demonstrations:Demonstrations:TelTel -- Aviv (WWT Aviv (WWT --reuse)reuse)Berlin (bank filtration)Berlin (bank filtration)
Examples of activities
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Examples of activities
Rational Water Use: Demand Management
Water saving technologies
Demonstrations:Demonstrations:ZaragozaZaragoza(World Expo 2008)(World Expo 2008)
Eco sanitation
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Eco-sanitation
Dry sanitation Urine separation
Nutrient recovery Reuse
Demonstrations:Demonstrations:BeijingBeijing
Alexandria Alexandria
Beijing
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j g
Innovative water management concepts:
separate treatment of concentrated and dilutedwastewater flows
use of treated effluents and storm water infiltrationfor landscaping and groundwater recharge
potential use of eco-san products in urban
agriculture.
Sustainable building areaSustainable building areawill serve as a demonstrationwill serve as a demonstration
site during the Greensite during the GreenOlympics of 2008.Olympics of 2008.
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Water in the City of
the Future
Picture the City of the Future
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We learned to live with water by building flexible cities We do no longer use water to transport wastes We have effective water and waste recovery schemes
We use a fraction of the water use of 30-50 years ago We apply integrated urban water cycle management
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0.3 m 3 /m 2
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0.3 m 3 /m 2
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0.3 m 3 /m 2
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0.3 m 3 /m 2
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Towards Sustainable
Water in the City of theFuture