Global Climate Change

Past, Present and Future

Review: Part I- Weather and Climate

Weather vs. Climate Atmosphere / Geosphere / Hydrosphere / BiosphereSolar RadiationUneven Heating of Earth’s Surface and Specific HeatRotation of Earth on its AxisAngle of InsolationProximity to Large Bodies of WaterCoriolis EffectThermohaline ConveyorSouthern Oscillation (ENSO/LNSO)Greenhouse Effect / Greenhouse GasesAlbedo EffectVolcanic ActivityWaste products of Animals / DecompositionVegetation – Carbon Sinks and Evaporation Rate

Let’s take a look at a history of how we have looked at

climate change

Global Climate Change

“The Past”

ICE HOUSE or HOT HOUSE???

During the last 2 billion years, the Earth's climate has alternated between a frigid "Ice House", like today's world, and a steaming "Hot House", like the world of the dinosaurs.

This chart shows how global climate has changed through time.

Did you ever hear the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears?

but baby bear’s was

juuust right…

Papa’s Porridge was too hot

Mama’s was too cold

Our Climate Works A Lot Like Goldilocks Very Specific Preferences….

Too many greenhouse gases, the Earth gets too hot.

The Earth gets too hot, we die

Too few greenhouse gases, the Earth gets too cold

The Earth’s too cold, we die

In other words, the earth’s climate has to be “juuuuust riiight” in order for life (as we know it) to continue to exist

Goldilocks Principle

Snowball Earth Theory

controversial hypothesis that the Earth underwent a worldwide glaciations, when even tropical regions became ice coveredTemps dropped to -50 °CAll the oceans froze, and glacial conditions persisted for 10 million years or more perhaps as many as four timesOccurred between approx 750 and 580 million years ago

Large concentration of equatorial land massesAlbedo Effect - Ice reflects heat, oceans absorb heatLack of rain disrupted carbon cycle, greenhouse gases dropped dramatically

VIDEO

SNOWBALL EARTH

– Reversed by volcanic activity CO2 Increase

– Sea ice shrinks, increasing temperature

– Earth began warming and life “exploded” in diversity

250 MYA – suddenly earth’s temp dramatically increases and 95% of all species on earth are wiped out. Greatest mass extinction ever. – Dino flatulence VIDEO

Earth’s Primitive AtmosphereEarth’s Primitive Volcanoes expelled vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphereThe atmosphere began to heat up tremendously as the gases trapped the sun’s radiationSimple living organisms (bacteria, algae) evolved and incorporated CO2 into their life molecules (basis for organic chemistry- carbs, nucleic acids, amino acids, lipids all require carbon and oxygen)Organisms die and are buried deep beneath the earth, “sinking” CO2 beneath the ground for millions of years

Cooler climate evolves without all of the CO2

Complex life evolvesComplex life digs up dead organisms, burns them and releases CO2 back into the atmosphere, thus creating freaky hot conditions and global temperatures like that of Primitive Earth. VOILA!!

Turning Back Time- Mimicking Earth’s Early

Inhospitable Environments

Earth’s levels of CO2 have not been this high since roughly 250,000,000 years ago!Levels are rapidly increasing as we spew the CO2 that has been stored underground (in dead organisms) back into the atmosphereAt the present rates, temperatures could climb to what they were during the most severe mass extinctions

Global Climate Change

“The Present”

Rising Global Average Temperatures

Global average surface temperature increased over the last 100 years by about 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit. (0.6 Celsius)There is at least a 90 percent chance that the 1990s was the warmest decade for the planet, since 1861 and the beginning of instrumental recordsThere is strong evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. 2006 had an annual average temperature of 55°F in the United States, which is 2.2°F (1.2°C) above the 20th Century mean. Each of the last ten years (1998-2008) has earned a spot in the rankings of the 25 warmest years on record. 2007 tied with 1998 as the second warmest year in a century, behind 2006, the warmest year in the century.

Rising Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases

• Up until the last two hundred years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations had stayed between 265 parts per million (ppm) and 280 ppm • according to analyses of gases obtained from ice cores that reflect

the past 10,000 years. • Atmospheric CO2 concentration at the beginning of the 21st Century is

approximately 365 ppm. • Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous

oxide have increased since 1750:• CO2 - 31 % • CH4 – 151 % • N2O – 17%

• Humans added more than 270 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere since the 1800’s.

• About three-quarters of human emissions of CO2 to the global atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to fossil fuel burning.

Current Evidence Of Climate Change

Sea level is rising.

During the 20th century, it is estimated that sea level rose about 15 cm (6 inches)

due to melting glaciers and expansion of warmer seawater.

It could rise much more than that in the next 100 years.

Every 1 degree C increase = 100 ft. of beach gone.

Arctic sea ice is melting. The summer thickness of sea ice is about half of what it was in 1950. This is causing the Arctic to warm up faster. (positive feedback). Fresh cold water floods into the thermohaline conveyor, traps warmest water in tropics, leading to drought in other regions

Glaciers and permafrost are melting

Over the past 100 years, mountain glaciers in all areas of the world have shrunk and so has the amount of permafrost in the Arctic. Greenland's ice sheet is melting faster too. These reserves of fresh water Damages our water supply in times of drought!!

Changing Glaciers VIDEO

The ocean is warming. Warmer waters in the shallow oceans make coral reefs less healthy.Loss of 60 percent of tropical corals is threatening barrier reefs. Coral Bleaching: About a quarter of the world's coral reefs have been “bleached” in the last few decades.

Reefs lose their healthy green color and die because the symbiotic algae cant survive the heat.

VIDEO

Warmer temperatures have caused more intense rainfall in some places.

This can cause rivers, storm drains, streams and reservoirs to overflow in rainiest seasons

Washes away soil and carries ground contaminants into major watersupplies

Flooding is a problem, especially in the higher latitudes.

More rain causes

flooding.

Extreme drought is increasing

While some areas experience more rain and flooding, Higher temperatures cause a higher rate of evaporation and more droughts in other areas of the worldMost effected: inland regions at lower-middle latitudes Inability to provide fresh drinking water or water for irrigationStrict rationing

– Reservoir, Georgia (2008)

Ecosystems are changing.

Ecosystems are changing.

As temperatures warm, animals and plants may either look for a cooler place to live or die.

Vulnerable species include many endangered species, coral and animals of the reefs, and polar animals.

Warming has also caused changes in the timing of spring rain events and the alter the length of the growing season of naturally occurring plants. – Plants that have grown in one region for a long time are no longer suitable

and are replaced by other species of plants and animals that feed on them.

If animals cannot migrate, they are left to starve

For humans, this drives the price of food crops up as supply drops.

Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength.

Recipe for a hurricane:

Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength.

Picture of Hurricane Elana over the Gulf of Mexico taken from orbit. (Image courtesy of NASA)

Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength.

There is evidence that the number of intense hurricanes has increased in the Atlantic since 1970.

Category 5 storms were only theoretical until the past 30 years

Will there be a category 6?

Scientists continue to study whether climate is the cause.

Picture of Hurricane Elana over the Gulf of Mexico taken from orbit. (Image courtesy of NASA)

Heat waves more frequent.

Heat waves have become increasingly more frequent and are lasting longerIt is likely that heat waves will become more common in more areas of the world.In 2003, 35,000 people died in Europe due to a series of severe heatwaves.In 2005, 14000 people died in France in a single heatwave– Outdated architecture was designed for climate from LIA Period

Elderly, young, sick and poor are most endangered.

Seawater is becoming more acidic.

When carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, gets into the oceans, it makes the water more acidic. – Carbonic Acid

Acidity disturbs balance of entire marine ecosystems.– impact coral reefs, such as all reef

species – collapsing our fishing industries – decimating marine food web from

the bottom-up (so long, Nemo and Dory), dolphins, manatees, sharks, tuna, salmon, whales…

How Do We Know that Temperatures are Rising?

1. Temperature/Climate data measurements Compare data recorded in recent centuries – Farmers almanacs, Royal scribes– World metrological data from the past century– Very limited timeline

2. Arctic Ice Cores Compare the ratio of CO2 to O2 and greenhouse gases back tens of thousands of years

3. Ocean Sediment Cores: Compare the ratio of the tiny warm-water vs. cold-water marine microorganisms buried beneath the ocean sediment (forams, coccoliths)

4. Tree Ring Analysis: Compare the size of rings to determine particularly dry or cold seasons. Older trees carry more information

Monitoring Sea level Change

Oceans can store up to 80% of solar radiation in the form of heat (heat “sink”)

Ice sheets are melting rapidly

Changing density of ocean by adding more fresh water

Measuring sea levels yields disturbing data

VIDEO

Monitoring Climate Change

Tools to montior Climate ChangeVideo

Ice cores

http://videos.howstuffworks.com/tlc/29806-understanding-antarctica-video.htm

Global Climate Change

“The Future”

What will these 6 degrees mean for us?

Six Degrees Could Change the WorldOne Degree Celsius– Arctic is ice free most of year– Coastal flooding– More hurricanes– Food shortages from drought

Two Degrees Celsius– Polar bear habitat loss/starvation– Insect Migration– Crop Migration– Loss of Marine Life – Coral Reefs

Extinct (canary in the coal mine)Three Degrees Celsius– No arctic ice– Disappearing snow caps– More el nino patterns– Amazon withers– Heat wave fatalities

Four Degrees Celsius– Oceans rise – Glaciers gone– Disappearing water supply– Major cities/countries washed

awayFive Degrees Celsius– Aquifers dry up / snow pack

disappears – Cities collapse– Climate refugees– Poorest suffer most

Six Degrees Celsius– Mass extinctions– Algae dies off – Severe desertification– “Doomsday Scenario”

But…..

… it is projected that if we continue on the same trend of CO2 production and

consumption, global temperatures

could increase by 5 t0 10 degrees Celsius

by the year 2100.

What could add to this huge 5 degree jump?

1. Warming can be further accelerated by the release of

Methane Hydrates

Methane molecule trapped or “frozen” in a net of water molecules

One molecule of methane is 8x as potent as a molecule of CO2, but considering how much methane there is, it is actually 23x more potent than CO2)

Stored in huge pockets beneath ocean or beneath permafrost regions (Alaska, Siberia)– Formed when buried organic matter decayed

The flammable GHG methane is released into the atmosphere by:

1. Mining for fuel (intentional and accidental)

2. Increase in Water Temperature releasing “frozen” methane hydrates buried beneath shallow seas

3. Carbonic acid eroding stability of sediments that cover the methane hydrates

There’s a lot of hydrocarbon molecules frozen in methane

hydratesif all of that if all of it were to thaw out and enter the atmosphere we could be facing a greenhouse effect that could be hundreds of times worse than what scientists currently predictif we destabilize large amounts of frozen methane and that enters the atmosphere, we’re literally cooked. The question is can we safely and economically extract methane from these deposits, and that’s a question that nobody has a good answer for right now. Release may lead to an intense positive feedback loop

VIDEO

Global Methane hydrate Deposits

2. A BIG CLIMATE MYSTERY:

The temperatures on Earth are increasing, so what should be happening to the rates of evaporation?Evaporation should be increasing as wellthe levels of evaporation of water (pan evaporation) are actually decreasingDoesn’t seem to make sense…

so why is it happening?

VIDEO – GLOBAL DIMMING

Is there something hiding the “real” effects of global

warming??? As more ice melts, the earth becomes darker, absorbing more heatAs it absorbs more heat, more evaporation occurs, leading to more water vapor in the air (can’t become clouds, but acts as insulating greenhouse gas)Additional particulate pollution helps form more clouds – Aerosols– Jet contrails

Clouds block incoming solar radiation – How?– High albedo- reflect sunlight back into space

Makes effects of global warming appear less Called “Global Dimming”

Shutting down the thermohaline conveyor

VIDEO

Can you see how this may present a PROBLEM?

If we don’t clean up air, it means:– more asthma and respiratory illnessesCleaning up air means:– reducing the cloud cover and increasing

the rate of heating of earth’s surface and all that comes along with it.

So what do we do???(Sadly, nobody has an answer for that… )Somehow, we must address BOTH problems

Cut back on Fossil Fuel Use– Industry must “scrub” to remove air pollutants– Promote public transportation– Improve gas mileage and emissions standards on

personal vehicles – Highly Rated Energy star appliances

Develop a non-fossil fuel-based, renewable energy system– Develop alternative energy economy

Windmills, hydroelectric, solar– Revamp grid – Hybrids/Alternative fuels

Get Creative about Greening up!

Fighting Increasing Global Temperatures

GOAL: Decrese the Amount of Solar Radiation Being Absorbed by the EARTH

• Once we clean up air pollution in our atmosphere, more solar radiation will hit the earth and be trapped by the greenhouse gases

• Block incoming solar radiation with a battalion of Mirrors in Space

• Same benefits as Global Dimming without all the asthma!

• VIDEO

Melting Glaciers & Ice Caps

GOAL- Reflect the sunlight back to space to prevent melting of sensitive ice shelves and glaciers

Wrapping Greenland Video

GOAL: Combating drought in dry areas By MAKING IT RAIN!!!“Cloud Seeding”Salts and silver iodide create condensation nuclei for cloud formation

Two Uses:

1. Preserving agriculture– Currently used in Texas

2. Also to mimic the effects of the high albedo clouds of global dimmingCreating/Seeding Clouds Video

Extreme Drought

Too many GREENHOUSE GASES and TOO LITTLE TIME

GOAL: Remove Greenhouse Gases from the Atmosphere

Burning fossil fuels cleanlyThe Earth’s Major Carbon sinks are in danger:

Ocean AlgaeMethane Hydrates Rainforests– Etc…

GOAL: CARBON CAPTURE and STORAGE - CCSCapture CO2 as it escapes factories using “scrubbers”Bury Carbon back deep under the earthCCS applied to a modern conventional power plant could reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by approximately 80-90% compared to a plant without CCS.Downside – requires a lot of energy to transport and bury the sequestered CO2

TOO MUCH CO2!!

VIDEO

Aaack!!! Beware the Terrifying Methane Hydrate Feedback

Loops! GOAL: Capture CARBON/METHANE to RE-USE! Capture escaping Methane Hydrates using complex tentsCapture seeping methane from decomposition in Garbage DumpsPut plastic bags over Cow’s Rumps! (jk)Video – Super SoilVideo – Trash to treasure

Perhaps destabilizing Methane hydrate can be

harvested for fuel

VIDEO

GOAL: Grow more ALGAE to make FUEL and

ABSORB CO2!Algae are among the fastest growing plants in the worldBiofuels - about 50 percent of algae weight is lipid oil that can be used to make biodiesel and ethanol for cars, trucks, and airplanes. By using “vertical ponds”, 100,000 gallons of algae oil can be produced per year per acre, compared to about 30 gallons per acre from corn; 50 gallons from soybeans.Video – Algae as a Biofuel

GOAL: Save the Rainforest!

Reduce paper waste (cancel extra magazines, buy products with less packaging,etc.)RECYCLE RECYCLE RECYCLE- especially aluminum and electronics (mined from bauxite beneath fertile rainforest floor)– Remediating Deforestation Video

Carbon Credits – Polluters can buy acreage of rainforests to save them from being cut down (major step from the Kyoto Protocol). – Incentive- The US agrees to offer tax cuts, and its

becoming very popular with consumers

GOAL: GREEN UP with Green Roofs!!

Reduces Urban ‘Heat Island’ Effect Increase the moisture retention (stabilizes temps)Raises albedo of concrete urban landscapesCaptures excess rain water, preventing flooding and storm drain overflow

Conserves natural resourcesIncreased insulation reduces need for fossil fuel heating/coolingReduces outside noise pollution

Examples:– Old fashioned sod-houses– Newfoundland – A shed with a garden on top

Super High-Tech

Green Roofs Green Roofs Video

Fukuoka, Japan

Monaco

Densely vegetated pathways that cross roads or simply link undeveloped areas Created to allow wildlife to safely cross roads or fields and to prevent genetic isolation of species Lessens Habitat FragmentationPrevents auto accidentsClimate bonus - Increases Albedo of asphalt environmentsNJ was the first state to use one over a major highway (Rt. 78)

GOAL: GREEN UP with

Wildlife Corridors

VIDEO

Climate Change can

lead to a very

different world than

we are accustome

d to.

Extinction of speciesPowerful Hurricanes IncreaseRedistribution of AgricultureDesertificationIncrease in Forest and Brush FiresLoss of Fresh Drinking WaterFloods due to rising sea levelsEnvironmental RefugeesA New “Little Ice Age” or even another “Snowball Earth”? – VIDEO

SO, DO YOUR PART TO GREEN UP!

MONEY TALKS. Reduce what you use/buy/toss and think twice about who you buy from– Don’t buy products from across the globe – buying local

decreases your carbon footprint– Support companies that buy carbon credits – Buy biofuels (even E-85)

Its better to recycle Carbon from the atmosphere than to dig it up

Cut back on your energy use – smart strips to reduce phantom loads (ex your phone charger

or sleeping cable box)– Go energy efficient when you can (high energy star rating)– Take public transportation (esp Trains or the fancy new

Hybrid and Hydrogen buses in NY/NJ)– recycle AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE!

DO YOUR PART TO GREEN UP!

Support legislation for Carbon sequestering, Green Roof projects, Wildlife Corridors in our community/ stateSmall Acts count! Plant more trees/gardensTALK ABOUT IT- Think about how much you’ve learned. Discuss it and help other people understand the real deal about climate change…. An informed citizen is a powerful tool for change.

….and in case you’re not freaked out enough

Milankovich Cycle

Every 100,000 or so years, the earth’s tilt on its axis and path around the sun change, causing periods of extreme climate change

VIDEO – Periodic Ice Ages