Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 1

Understanding the basics

of climate change scienceof climate change science

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Is climate change real?

• IPCC 4th Assessment Report:

– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is nowevident from observations of increases in global averageair and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snowand ice and rising global average sea level”.and ice and rising global average sea level”.

• Observed trends:

– Recent years warmest on record

– Accelerating increase in global surface temperature andocean temperature

– Accelerating rise in sea level

2

Some observations: trends inglobal mean temperature

Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th

Assessment Report,WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1

3

Berkeley Earth Project Oct 2011

4

Observations and projections:global sea level change

Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th

AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1

5

Observations: intensity of cyclones

Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve),sum of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for eachcategory from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)

6

What are the causes of climatechange?

• Natural variation is an inherent feature of theclimate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)

• But anthropogenic emissions of long-livedgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorcause of the changes now being observed

7

The greenhouse effect

8

Source: WWF/IPCC,http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

What are the main greenhousegases?

• By decreasing order of abundance:

– water vapour (H2O)

– carbon dioxide (CO2)

– methane (CH4)– methane (CH4)

– nitrous oxide (N2O)

– ozone (O3)

– chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)

– other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine,

chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC,sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)

9

Evolution of GHG concentrations

Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th

AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1

10

Globally, what are the main sourcesof GHG emissions?

Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute

11

What are the main consequences?

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to or destructionof infrastructure

Reduced food security,malnutrition

Economic disruption, lossMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pest outbreaks,...

Economic disruption, lossof livelihoods, social

disruption

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Reduced availability ofhydropower

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

12

References

• Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2005

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working GroupI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [SolomonS., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B. , Tignor M. & Miller H.L. (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

• WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

• Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature http://berkeleyearth.org/

13

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 2

Understanding climate change –

development linkages

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

development linkages

Adaptation, mitigation and vulnerabilityAdaptation, mitigation and vulnerability

2

Adaptation and mitigation

Humanactivities

AdaptationMitigation

Climate,environment &

natural resources

Impacts

3

Opportunities, risks& constraints

Vulnerability

•Age•Gender

•Social group

•Education

•Wealth

•Access toinformation and

++

+

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Resilienceinformation and

technology

•‘Built’ and ‘green’infrastructure

•Institutions

•Social organisation

•Culture

•Equity &(in)equality

•Development level

Adaptation Maladaptation

-

+-

4

Vulnerability

Resilience

Biophysical and socioeconomicimpacts

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to ordestruction ofinfrastructure

Reduced food security,malnutrition

VulnerabilityMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pestoutbreaks, ...

malnutrition

Economic disruption,loss of livelihoods, social

disruption

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Reduced availability ofhydropower

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

Vulnerabilityfactors

5

Climate change vulnerability inSouth East Asia

6Source: Yusuf and Francisco (2009) Figure. 2, p. 6.

Illustration: Possible climatechange impacts in Asia

• The numbers of potential ‘forced climate migrants’ by 2050 globallyranges from between 25million to 1 billion people.

– In Bangladesh it is estimated that up to 20 million people will bedisplaced from rising sea levels

• Agricultural productivity in Asia is likely to suffer severe lossesbecause of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and

Source: IPCC (2007c). Figure 10.4, p. 481

because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, andsoil degradation

• Frequency of forest fires is expected to increase in boreal Asia

• Grassland productivity to decrease by as much as 40–90%

• 1.8 million km2 of farmland could become unproductive in Asia by2050

• Populations of island states such as Tuvalu, the Marshall Islandand Kiribati are particularly threatened

– May become fully submerged7

Source: OECD (2009a), Table 3.1 p. 44

Climate change, environment and developmentClimate change, environment and development

8

Environment – climate change –development linkages

Climate change:

- an environ-- an environ-mental issue

- a developmentissue

9

Source: MillenniumEcosystem

Assessment (2005)Figure B, p. 7.

Climate change and sustainabledevelopment

Environment

Climate change

Biophysicaleffects

Both adaptation andmitigation supportmore sustainable

development

Environment

Socialdimension

Economy

Sustainabledevelopment

effects

Socio-economicimpacts

10

In turn, the pursuit ofsustainable development

enhances society’s responsecapacity

Climate change and environment

• Climate change is a theme to be addressedwith other environmental issues:– Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends

and problems

– Environmental management has an impact on climate change

11

Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado,EuropeAid Photo Library

Credit: Vietnamese journalist,EuropeAid Photo Library

Climate change and MDGs

Potential

Eradicateextreme poverty

& hunger

Reduce childmortality

Promote genderequality &

empower women

e.g. Adverseeffects on

food security

e.g. Increasedincidence ofwaterbornediseases

Potentialimpacts on

MDGs

Improvematernal

healthCombat major

diseases

Ensureenvironmentalsustainability

12

e.g. Dependenceon livelihoods put

at risk by CC

e.g. Higherincidence of

anaemia resultingfrom malaria

e.g. Heat-relatedmortality & illnesses e.g. Increased stress

on ecosystems andbiodiversity

Source: OECD (2009a)

The development–adaptationcontinuum

Vulnerability Response to impacts

Addressing thedrivers of

Building theresponse

Managing climaterisk

Specificallyconfronting

vulnerability

Developmentalbenefits

capacity

=> Developmentaland climate

adaptation benefits

(e.g. DRR)

=> Primarilyadaptation benefits,

developmentalbenefits as a ‘side

effect’

climate change

=> Quasi-exclusivefocus on very

specific CC impacts,adaptation benefits

only

Adapted from: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009a), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)

13

Benefits in the absence of climate change100 0

Moving to climate-resilient,

low-emission development

14

Climate-resilient development

Biophysicalimpacts

Socioeconomicimpacts

Vulnerabilityfactors

The develop-ment pathaddresses

factors

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

Development(vulnerability

reduction)activities

Response capacity building

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

15

addressescurrent and

futurevulnerability,

risks andimpacts

Low-emission development

• Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are thebiggest contributors to GHG emissionsare also the main targets for emissionreductions: The

develop-

• Country-specific emission patterns anddevelopment objectives should beconsidered to determine nationalmitigation priorities

16

Energy (fossil-fuel burning)

AgricultureLand use changeesp. deforestation

develop-ment pathaddressessources ofemissions

Building on NAPAs and NAMAs

• Many developing countries have nowsubmitted their NAPAs (& NAMAs) to the UNFCCC

– NAPAs = national adaptation programmes of action• Help LDCs build national capacities and identify priority

adaptation projects with developmental benefitsadaptation projects with developmental benefits

– NAMAS = nationally appropriate mitigation actions• These voluntary mitigation measures are consistent with a

country’s development strategy, and are meant to put it on amore sustainable development path

• These are a good starting point for addressing theclimate challenge without compromisingdevelopment objectives

17

Adaptation and mitigation:seizing opportunities

• Green growth

– ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development,while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversityloss and unsustainable natural resource use’

• Green jobsSource: OECD (2010b)

• Green jobs

• Adaptation and mitigation as ‘opportunities’:development co-benefits

e.g. renewable energy

e.g. clean technologies

e.g. forestry (REDD+)

e.g. agricultural productivity

18

Key opportunities for developingcountries

• Agriculture and Food: Adaptation of crops to salinity,droughts, temperature, and floods

• Water: Development of redundant/emergency watersupplies; integrated water resource management anddisaster risk management

• Forests: Promotion of forest-based livelihood options,including non-timber forest products and tourism

• Infrastructure: Incorporation of climate concerns intoenvironmental impact assessments of new infrastructureplanning and investment

19Source: USAID (2010) Table 3.2, p.35

Adaptation and mitigation:developing synergies

• Quite frequently adaptation and mitigationmeasures are congruent and can produce a doublestream of benefits

– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbonsequestration in soils while supporting soil moistureretention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells

– e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneouslyenhance carbon stocks and, by offering new livelihoodopportunities, enhance the adaptive capacity of localcommunities

20

Adaptation and mitigation:ensuring complementarity

• Mitigation should:

– Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements

– Rely on environmentally sustainable practices• e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security,

water availability and ecosystemswater availability and ecosystems

– Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change

• Adaptation should:

– Take emissions into account• e.g. agricultural intensification for improved food security may

increase emissions from the use of fertilisers

• e.g. the increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heatwaves may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use

21

Case study: Thailand

Major risks due to climate change:

-Droughts

-Floods-Floods

-Cyclones

22

Case study: Thailand

Source: Thongtanakul P. (2009), slide 4

23

Case study: Thailand

Change in temperature:

24Source: Thai Meteorological Department; Southeast Asia STARTRegional Center – From Thongtanakul P. (2009), slide 6

Case study: Thailand

Change in Precipitation:

25Source: Thai Meteorological Department; Southeast Asia STARTRegional Center – From Thongtanakul P. (2009), slide 6

Case study: Thailand

Source: Thongtanakul P. (2009), slide 7

26

Case study: Thailand

Source: Thongtanakul P. (2009), slide 18

27

Case study: Thailand

• Threats of sea level rise in the megacity, Bangkok

– Home to over 10 million people

– Sea level rise will exacerbate freshwater constraints due– Sea level rise will exacerbate freshwater constraints dueto salinization of estuaries and groundwater supplies.

– Sinking 10 centimeters annually

– City at risk of disappearing into the sea within 15 or 20years

28Source: Kisner C., Climate Institute (2008)

Case Study: Thailand

• Calls to action:

– Disaster prevention experts are now advocating theconstruction of a 100 billion baht (3 billion USD) floodprevention wall to protect Bangkok Source:

– Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will head a newagency assigned to run an overall national watermanagement system to ensure unity in tackling flood-related problems

29Sources: Kisner C., Climate Institute (2008) ; Bangkok Post (2012)

Moving to climate-resilient,low-emission development

• Both climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreamingclimate change in policymaking and planning

Adaptationmainstreaming

Mainstreaming ofclimate change

mitigation

Low-emissiondevelopment

Climate-resilientdevelopment

The twoapproaches arecomplementary

In both cases,focus on co-

benefits

30

References (1)

• IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange [Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• IPCC (2007d) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of WorkingGroup III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Metz B., Davidson O.R., Bosch P.R., Dave R. & Meyer L.A. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,[Metz B., Davidson O.R., Bosch P.R., Dave R. & Meyer L.A. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• Kisner (C. 2008) Climate Change in Thailand: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies [Online] ClimateInstitute., Washington, DC Available from: http://www.climate.org/topics/international-action/thailand.htm

• McGray H., Hammill A. & Bradley R. (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for FramingAdaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available from:http://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. IslandPress, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.maweb.org/en/Synthesis.aspx

• OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policyguidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from:http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF

31

References (2)

• OECD (2010b) Interim Report of the Green Growth Strategy: Implementing our commitment for asustainable future. Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, 27-28 May 2010.C/MIN(2010)5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Available from:http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_37465_45196035_1_1_1_1,00.html

• Olhoff A. & Schaer C. (2010) Screening tools and guidelines to support the mainstreaming ofclimate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/library_integrating_cc.shtml

• Post Reporters (2012) “PM leads new flood agency: Govt wants unity in water management.”Bangkok Post [Bangkok] 8 Feb. 2012, Bangkok ed. Available from:http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/278744/pm-leads-new-flood-agency

• Thongtanakul P. (2009) Climate Change and Thailand: disaster risk assessment and theinsurance coverage of natural hazards in Thailand going forward?. Presentation by PrawitThongtanakul for the 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the FinancialManagement of Large-Scale Catastrophes, Bangkok, Thailand, 24-25 September 2009. Availablefrom: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/39/51/43722897.pdf

32

References (3)

• USAID (2010) Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment - Final Report:Findings and Recommendations. International Resources Group, Washington, DC. Availablefrom: http://www.usaid.gov/rdma/documents/RDMA_Asia-Pacific_Climate_Change_Adaptation_Assessment_Final_Report.pdf

• Yusuf A.A. & Francisco H. (2009) Climate change vulnerability mapping for Southeast Asia.Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), Singapore with CIDA, IDRCand SIDA. Available from: http://web.idrc.ca/uploads/user-S/12324196651Mapping_Report.pdfand SIDA. Available from: http://web.idrc.ca/uploads/user-S/12324196651Mapping_Report.pdf

33

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 3

Mainstreaming climate change

and strengthening institutions

and capacitiesand capacities

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

What is mainstreaming,

and why mainstream climate change?

2

From project-based approaches...

• Project-based adaptation approaches such asthose developed in NAPAs are a first step in theright direction:

– Contribution to national capacity building

– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level

– Identified projects usually correspond to real prioritiesand involve wider developmental benefits

• But there are also problems, notably:

– Poor institutional arrangements for implementation

– Low capacity for adaptation planning andimplementation

Source: World Bank (2010a) WDR 20103

... to climate change mainstreaming

• In the medium and long term, standalone projectsare unlikely to meet all adaptation and mitigationrequirements in a cost-effective, scalable manner

• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climate• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climatechange into all development planning, both atstrategic planning levels and in local development

4

What is mainstreaming?

• The mainstream: the prevailing or dominantcourse, current, tendency or way of thinking

• Mainstreaming: the informed integration of arelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsrelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsof institutions that drive national, local and sectoraldevelopment policy, rules, plans, investment andaction (adapted from Dalal-Clayton & Bass 2009)

• Institutional strengthening and change and capacitybuilding are at the heart of any mainstreaming effort

5

Objectives of mainstreaming

• Mainstreaming is a long-term, iterativeprocess aimed at:

– transforming ideas

– even more importantly, transforming policies, resource– even more importantly, transforming policies, resourceallocations and practices

• in order to:

– promote desired developmental outcomes (with regard togender, environment, climate change, governance,human rights, ...)

– and support integrated solutions to human problems

6

Why mainstream climate change?

• Climate change is a potentially significant threatto ongoing development / poverty reduction efforts

• Pursuing economic growth is necessary but notsufficient to respond to climate-related challengessufficient to respond to climate-related challenges

• Climate change impacts are complex and requirecoordination across multiple sectors

• Standalone responses to climate change may distortdevelopment priorities and foster maladaptation

• An adequate, strategically designed responsecan bring significant developmental benefits

7

A framework for mainstreaming

climate change

8

Entry points for mainstreaming inthe policy cycle

Agendasetting

Finding theentry points &

making thecase

MainstreamingCC into policy &

planningprocesses

9

Nationaldevelopment

planning

Policymaking

Implementation& monitoringMeeting the

implementationchallenge

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.2, p. 15

Finding the entrypoints and making the

case

Mainstreaming CC intopolicy and planning

processes

Meeting theimplementation

challenge

Preliminary assessmentsUnderstanding the science

Understanding CC–development linkages

Understanding climate-related uncertainties

Raising awareness andbuilding partnerships

Collecting country-specificevidence and influencing

policy processesMainstreaming CC in

(sub)national and sectorpolicies, strategies,

programmes

Costing, assessing and

Budgeting and financingMainstreaming CC in the

budgetary process

Mainstreaming CC inmonitoring systems

Performance assessmentframeworks

Mod1

Mod4

Mod5

Mod6 Mod8

Mod9

Mod2

building partnershipsNational consensus andcommitment to climate-resilient, low-emission

development

Strengthening institutionsand capacities

Needs assessmentWorking mechanisms

Costing, assessing andselecting adaptation andmitigation options and

measures

Strengthening institutionsand capacities

Learning by doing

Supporting policy measuresNational, sector and sub-

national levels

Strengthening institutionsand capacitiesMainstreaming

as standard practice

Engaging stakeholders and coordinating within the development community

Mod5

Mod3

Mod7

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.1, p. 1510

Mod3 Mod3

Strengthening institutions and capacitiesStrengthening institutions and capacities

11

Terminology

• Institutions

– the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangementsthat shape and regulate human behaviour andinteractions, and notably support decision making

– institutions ≠ organisations

– institutions can be formal or informal

• Institutional framework

– a system made up of rules, laws, policies and institutions,in which various organisations interact with each other

12

Key institutional requirementsfor effective mainstreaming

Effective

Cross-sectoral& cross-levelcoordination,cooperation

Powerfulchampions atnational level Integration of

new thinking,new researchin planning &monitoring

e.g. office of prime minister,ministries of

finance/budget/planning

Effectivemainstreaming

monitoringsystems &processes

Experiencesharing,

disseminationof good

practices Timelystakeholder

participation atvarious scales

Strengtheningof capacities ofstakeholders atvarious scales

13

Roles & responsibilities ofmain stakeholders

Stakeholder group Main roles & responsibilities

Central government (incl. office ofprime minister, ministries offinance/budget/planning, ...)

Leadership, performance management frameworksPolicies, standards & regulationsAllocation of budget resourcesGuidance & capacity building

Local governments Implementation of national policiesIntegration with community strategiesIntegration with community strategies

Private sector Preparation for losses & opportunities, risk mngtContribution to sustainable investments &vulnerability reduction through development

Scientific & academicorganisations

Policy-oriented researchSupport for decision making

Investment promotion agencies Climate-proofing of investments, bridging ofdevelopment gaps

Poverty reduction organisations Climate change adequately addressed

Adapted from: Schipper et al (2008)14

Principles for institutionalising

climate change mainstreaming

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

15

Which institutional model?

• There is no single, ‘blueprint’ institutional modelfor effective mainstreaming of climate change

• Each country has to determine the most suitableinstitutional arrangements based on:institutional arrangements based on:

– current institutional structures

– a clear diagnosis of their strengths and weaknesses

– a clear plan for overall governance improvement

• However, there are some agreed principles andexamples of good practice

16

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (1)

• Move coordination of climate adaptation/mitigationto a central body with a coordination mandate anddecision-making power over line ministries

– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission

– e.g. Kenya: Office of the President

• Establish or strengthen coordination mechanisms,with a clear allocation of responsibilities andpermanent arrangements

– e.g. Mexico: Inter-Ministerial Commission on ClimateChange (CICC) with dedicated working groups

17Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (2)

• Build on pre-existing intersectoral coordinationmechanisms wherever possible

– e.g. coordination structures for food security, disaster riskreduction and management, sustainable landmanagement, environmental management

• Institutionalise flexibility

– e.g. commitment to regular policy/strategy revisions andreassessment of available knowledge

• Institutionalise adaptation/mitigation mainstreaming

– e.g. in guidelines, procedures, systems, criteria forscreening and prioritising programmes and projects

18Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (3)

• Develop effective national–local coordinationmechanisms, identifying the most suitable level atwhich to cooperate/coordinate

– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts between– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts betweenvarious levels of government, with clear definition of goals,indicators and activities

• Strengthen institutions at the sub-national level,matching the transfer of competences with thetransfer of resources

19Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Tools and actions for supporting institutional and

capacity strengthening

20

Steps in institutional and capacitystrengthening

Needs assessment

Workingmechanisms

National capacity self-assessment

Inst’l arrangementsManagementframework

Stakeholderanalysis

21Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009)

Learning by doing

mechanisms

Mainstreaming asstandard practice

frameworkWork plan

Training, exchangevisits, on-the-joblearning, lesson

learning/dissemination

Needs assessment: capacitydevelopment for whom, for what?

• Capacity development (CD) should take placeat three complementary levels:

– the ‘enabling environment’ or ‘system level’ (overallinstitutional level)

– the organisation level

– the individual level

22

Start by determining:

‘Capacity developmentfor what?’ -> Define

specific objectives

Source: UNDP (2011)

Needs assessment: stakeholders’CD needs for mainstreaming

Stakeholder

Informationsystems &analytical

skills

Planning &prioritisation

skillsParticipatory

engagement &empowerment

skillsStakeholder

capacitybuilding

skills

Political &communication

skills

Monitoring,evaluation &

learning skills

Specifictechnical

skills

23Source: Dalal-Clayton & Bass (2009)

‘FUNCTIONAL

CAPACITIES’‘TECHNICAL

CAPACITIES’

Needs assessment: nationalcapacity self-assessments

• Based on existing or ad hoc institutionalassessments, consider for all relevant organisations:

– Level of education & awareness of climate change

– Organisations’ mandates & functions with regard toclimate-related issuesclimate-related issues

– Influence of climate risks on capacity to function

– Technical, financial, legal/regulatory capacities &information systems in relation to climate-related issues

– Planning, decision-making, budget allocation &programming mechanisms

– Collaboration & coordination structures & mechanisms

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)24

Setting up working mechanismsfor a mainstreaming initiative

• Define institutional arrangements (political andtechnical) (e.g. steering and technical committees)

• Set up a management framework

– Leadership arrangements– Leadership arrangements

– Human resources

– Financial arrangements

– M&E arrangements

• Develop an operational work plan

25Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Learning-by-doing: multipleapproaches

• Formal training on mainstreaming and onspecific technical aspects

• Exchange visits

• On-the-job learning through national mainstreaming• On-the-job learning through national mainstreamingprogrammes (e.g. GCCA-funded) including:

– Interdisciplinary teams

– Twinning between organisations

– Technical assistance

– Demonstration projects

• Lesson learning and dissemination

26Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009)

References

• Dalal-Clayton B. & Bass S. (2009) The challenges of environmental mainstreaming: experienceof integrating environment into development institutions and decisions. International Institute forEnvironment and Development, London. Available from: http://www.environmental-mainstreaming.org/key-lit.html

• Schipper E.L., Paz Cigarán M. & McKenzie Hedger M. (2008) Adaptation to Climate Change:The new challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group,United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/docs/English/UNDP_Adaptation_final.pdfhttp://www.undp.org/climatechange/docs/English/UNDP_Adaptation_final.pdf

• UNDP (2011) Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental Sustainability.United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/mainstreaming/cdes.shtml

• UNDP-UNEP (2009) Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into Development Planning:A Handbook for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/PDF/PEI-full-handbook.pdf

• UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning:A Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html

• World Bank (2010a) Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010.World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0

27

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 4

Understanding and planning

under uncertaintyunder uncertainty

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Sources of uncertaintySources of uncertainty

2

Socio-economic uncertainties

• Socio-economic uncertainties (e.g. related to futurepopulation growth, economic growth, technological

choices, societal choices, international relations):

– influence the level of future emissions and thus the– influence the level of future emissions and thus themagnitude of climate change

– also, create uncertainties about future vulnerability toclimate change

3

IPCC GHG emission scenarios

Source: IPCC (2007a) 4thAssessment report –

Synthesis report, Fig. 3.1

4

Climate uncertainties

• For any given emission scenario, differentatmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs) provide different projections of futurechange – sometimes very different oneschange – sometimes very different ones

• Due to the complexity of the climate system,many uncertainties prevail and will persist overthe evolution of climate

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Uncertainties in climate changeprojections

• Temperatures and sea levels:

– consensus that they will increase

– magnitude of the increase quite uncertain

• Rainfall:

– expected to increase overall

– but some regions are likely to get more and some less

– for many regions in the world, uncertainty about thedirection of change

• Changes in extreme parameters:

– average future conditions are easier to project thanextremes

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Problems associated withdownscaling

• AOGCMs produce projections of future climatechange for large areas (e.g. 200x200 km) – but usedalone, do not allow the downscaling of projections tolocal and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)local and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)

• Downscaling requires extra data and efforts

– In developing countries, the data needed to downscaleprojections of climate change to the local or regional levelare often missing

– The level of uncertainty is greater at downscaled levelsthan at large scales

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Planning in the face of uncertaintiesPlanning in the face of uncertainties

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The cost of inaction

• The uncertainties surrounding climate changeare often invoked to justify inaction

• In a medium- to long-term perspective, however,inaction now is likely to be more costly:inaction now is likely to be more costly:

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*Wasted investment*Increased vulnerability

Failure to adapt

*More harmful impacts*Higher adaptation costs

Failure to reduce emissions

The benefits of action

• Some climate adaptation and mitigationmeasures are expected to provide developmentalbenefits, regardless of the scope and magnitude ofclimate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,climate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,regardless of carbon prices

• Even in the face of uncertainty, some types ofmeasures are justified

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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (1)

• ‘No-regret’ measures:

– those expected to produce net benefits for societyeven in the absence of climate change (adaptation) orindependently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero ornegative net cost at a zero carbon price)

• ‘Low-regret’ measures:

– those expected to have a cost for society, but anacceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring ifclimate change turns out to produce significant effects(adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or lowcarbon prices (mitigation)

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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (2)

• ‘Robust’ measures:

– those that produce net benefits or deliver good outcomesacross various possible climate change or carbon pricescenarios and economic development scenarios (ratherthan just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)than just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)

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Adaptive management

• Adaptive management: a flexible andpragmatic type of management, aimed atcontinually improving management policies andpractices, on the basis of ‘learning by doing’

– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results and– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results andoutcomes are analysed and lessons learnt beforescaling up or adjusting responses

– Involves robustness as a decision criterion, the inclusionof safety margins in investment and the choice ofreversible/flexible options

• Well suited to situations involving uncertainties

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Scenario-based planning (1)

• To support the choice of adaptation measures,scenarios reflecting prevailing uncertainties canalso be developed, e.g.

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1) No change2) Moderate change3) High change

1) No change2) Temperatures up, rainfall up3) Temperatures up, rainfall down

Scenario-based planning (2)

Contents of scenarios Scenario development

Changes in climateconditions

Key experts with arange of technical skills

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conditions

Resulting biophysicaleffects

Resulting socio-economic impacts

range of technical skills

Other nationalstakeholders

for their knowledge oflocal conditions

(e.g. government and civilsociety organisations)

Scenario-based planning (3)

Once scenarios have been designed:

1) Identify potentially suitableadaptation or mitigation options

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2) Calculate costs and benefitsfor each chosen scenarios

3) Compare costs and benefitsacross the various scenarios

4) Identify no-regret, low-regretand robust options/measures

Illustration and discussionIllustration and discussion

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Projected changes in temperatureover cropland – 2 scenarios

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Scenario A2 assumes a very heterogeneous world with a continuouslyincreasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that ismore fragmented and slower than in scenario B1.

Scenario B1 assumes a convergent world with a global populationthat peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter. It assumes rapidchanges in economic structures toward a service and informationeconomy with reductions in material intensity and the introductionof clean and resource-efficient technologies.

Source: World Bank (2011) http://climate4development.worldbank.org/#/food-security

Case study: climate changescenarios for India

19Source: Biswal B. – Institute of Agricultural Sciences (2008)

Case study: Bangladesh,Climate change scenarios

Source: World Bank(2012)http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=BGD

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Case study: Bangladesh,Climate change scenarios

Source: World Bank(2012)http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=BGD

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Climate change max precipitationchange in South-East Asia

2010 2050 2090

22Source: APN (2008) Figure 1, p. 9

Case Study: Bangladesh,global warming vs. Sea level rise

Source: Warrick et al (1993) – Available from: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal– Bangladesh Dashboard: Climate Future

Illustration: background forAlice Springs CC scenarios

• Integrates data from several existing sources ofinformation (climate model scenarios, economic data,natural resource management information)

• Scenarios representing possible futures for Alice• Scenarios representing possible futures for AliceSprings based on narratives produced as a result ofstakeholder discussions

• The model does not make predictions of the future -it aims to explore trends and so make stakeholdersthink in terms of the whole system and a set ofpossible outcomes

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www.users.on.net/~treehugger/ser/index.htm

Alice Springs CC scenario:on-line tool

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References

• APN (2008) Climate Change in Southeast Asia and Assessment on Impact, Vulnerability andAdaptation on Rice Production and Water Resource. Final report. Asia-Pacific Network for GlobalChange Research. Available from: http://startcc.iwlearn.org/doc/Doc_eng_10.pdf

• Biswal B.(2008) Climate Change: Impacts on Indian Agriculture. Presentation [Online]. Institute ofAgricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University Varanasi. Available from:http://www.slideshare.net/soumyashree85/global-climate-change-its-impact-on-indian-agriculture-http://www.slideshare.net/soumyashree85/global-climate-change-its-impact-on-indian-agriculture-presentation

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• Warrick R.A., Bhuiya,A.H. & Mirza M.Q. (1993) Climate Change and Sea-level Rise: the Case ofthe Coast. Briefing Document No. 6, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP), Dhaka

• World Bank (2011) Exploring Climate and Development Links [Online] Available from:http://climate4development.worldbank.org/#/food-security

• World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/

• World Bank – Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Bangladesh Dashboard: Climate Future[Online] Available from:http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=BGD

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