global climate change impacts on coffee production
TRANSCRIPT
A bitter cup: Climate Change profile of
global Arabica and Robusta production
Christian Bunn, Peter Läderach, Oriana
Ovalle Rivera, Dieter Kirschke
11. September 2014 ASIC 2014 Climate Change Impacts
Climate Change
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• “The climate has become inpredictable, itrains less and very irregularly, my yield has decreased and I have more pest and disease problems.”
• Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, January, 2010
©Neil Palmer, CIAT
Observed change in surface temperature
(1901–2012)
Source: IPCC, 2013.
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Previous work
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Nicaragua
Pinto et al. 2008
Brazil
Guatemala
Vietnam
Global Arabica
TanzaniaTanzania
Nicaragua
How robust are the results?
Are there global trends?• Latitudinal migration• Altitudinal migration• Deforestation• Robusta vs. Arabica
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Aproach
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Machine learning classification
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Materials + Methods
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• Maxent, RandomForest, Support Vector Machine
• Political, Bioclimatic, Geographic extent• 5 Sample Ratios: 1:1 – 8:1• 3 Regularization Levels
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Distribution Arabica
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Current2050 Change
Distribution Robusta
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Current2050 Change
Latitudinal migration
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Arabica:• Equal losses across all
latitudes• Some South migration
Robusta:
• High impacts around equator
8/14Eq
uato
r
Equ
ator
Altitudinal migration
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• High losses at low altitudes
• Some gains at high altitudes
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Regional migration
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• High losses in Brazil
• Less impact in East Africa
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Africa Americas Asia Africa Americas Asia
Land Conversion
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• Opportunities in East Africa• Deforestation risk in Asia• Mitigation challenges in Brazil
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Driver Variables
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C. arabica C. canephora
Mo
st In
flu
enti
alV
aria
ble
s
Mean temperature of the warmest quarter
Mean diurnal range of temperature
Max temp of warmest month Annual temperature range
Mean temp of wettest quarter Max temp of warmest month
....
...
Leas
tin
flu
enti
al
vari
able
s Mean diurnal range of temperature Temperature in the coldest quarter
Annual temperature range Precipitation during the coldest quarter
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Conclusions
• Independent of model set up, greenhouse gas scenario, or
coffee species, climate change impacts appear to be
robustly negative
• Latitudinal migration is not the easy way out, nor is
altitudinal migration an option due to area limitations in
high locations
• Brazil may lose large areas while Eastern Africa could be a
relative winner
• Possible GHG mitigation challenges from land conversion
• It is higher temperatures that stress Arabica and a higher
climate variability that affects Robusta
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Thank you!
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C Bunn with P Läderach, O OvalleThe 25th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Colombia September 2014