global climate change-local impacts: the case of pakistan...
TRANSCRIPT
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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE-LOCAL IMPACTS: THE CASE OF
PAKISTAN’S WATER RESOURCES
DR. ZIA UR RAHMAN HASHMI
GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES CENTRE
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OUTLINE
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS
• THE CASE OF PAKISTAN-A WATER BASED ECONOMY
• CC IMPLICATIONS
• OUR RESPONSE
• ASSESSMENT (RESEARCH)
• POLICY
• ACTION
• CONCLUSIONS
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STATE OF OUR KNOWLEDGE
• CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL
• IT IS ALREADY HERE
• IT IS HERE TO STAY
• IT IS HUMAN INDUCED
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Solar Radiation
The Earth’s Climate System
There is a Natural Climate Variability as a result of
Interactions between external and internal influences4
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Natural Climate
Variability
Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Changes in Precipitation patterns (Quantity & Distribution)
Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
IMPACTS
Uncertainty in Water Availability
Decrease in Crop Yields
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased Health Risks
Newer perspective for sources of energy
Spiraling Population
High pace of Industrialization
Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in
Industry & Transport
Deforestation for Agriculture and Urbanization
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic
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• TEMPERATURE DATA SHOWING RAPID WARMING IN THE PAST FEW DECADES
• ACCORDING TO NASA DATA, 2016 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR SINCE 1880,
CONTINUING A LONG-TERM TREND OF RISING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES
• THE 10 WARMEST YEARS IN THE 138-YEAR RECORD ALL HAVE OCCURRED
SINCE 2000, WITH THE FOUR WARMEST YEARS BEING THE FOUR MOST RECENT
YEARS. (SOURCE: NASA/NOAA)
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IS IT REAL?
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Past 1000 Year Changes in Average Global Surface Temperature
The available temperature records for the last 1000 years show that
the average global temperature was essentially constant (if anything,
slightly decreasing), until the start of the industrial revolution and has
been increasing since.
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https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/
409
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CONSENSUS
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IT IS ALREADY HERE!!!!!!!!
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• We have already crossed 1oC
compared to pre-industrial
level
• Global warming is not
uniform
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INCREASING FREQUENCY OF CLIMATE INDUCED DISASTERS
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Source: © 2018 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As of January 2018.
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Between hurricane Florence in America and typhoon Mangkhut inthe Philippines and China, both hemispheres have been hit almostsimultaneously by unusually strong storm systems
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IT IS HERE TO STAY
• EVEN IF CO2 EMISSIONS WERE TO CEASE OVERNIGHT, THE HALF A
TRIILLION TONNES OF CARBON THAT HAVE BEEN PUMPED INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE SINCE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZATION (⁓1850) WILL
AFFECT EARTH’S BIOSPHERE, GLACIERS AND OCEANS FOR
CENTURIES TO COME (IPCC)
• CO2 LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE DANGEROUS 400PPM FOR
THE REST OF OUR LIVES
• THE HUMAN ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY CAUSED ABOUT 1℃ OF
GLOBAL WARMING, WHILE AT THE PRESENT RATE OF WARMING
(0.2℃ PER DECADE) WE’LL HIT 1.5℃ BY ABOUT 2040
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RECENT IPCC REPORT ON 1.5O C WARMING
https://currentaffairs.gktoday.in/ipcc-special-report-climate-change-key-points-10201861759.html 15
• The 1.5℃ target require
CO₂ emissions to
decline by 45% by 2030
(relative to 2010).
• By 2050, reach “net
zero” - further CO₂emissions have to be
matched by removal of
CO₂ already in the
atmosphere, including
by planting trees
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ANTHROPOGENIC?
MULTIPLE STUDIES PUBLISHED IN PEER-
REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS SHOW
THAT 97 % OR MORE OF ACTIVELY
PUBLISHING CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AGREE:
CLIMATE-WARMING TRENDS OVER THE
PAST CENTURY ARE EXTREMELY LIKELY
DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES
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Source: www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
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THE CASE OF PAKISTAN- A WATER BASED ECONOMY
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• SUPER FLOOD (2010)
• HEAT WAVE IN KARACHI (2015)
• DROUGHT IN THAR (2014-2017 )
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Extreme Events 1985 – 1999 2000 – 2017
Large Scale Flooding 1988, 1992, 1997
2003, 2006,
2010, 2011, 2012,
2013, 2014, 2015
Localized Cloud Burst Events 1996 (Lahore)
2001 (Islamabad)
2009 (Karachi)
2010
Droughts 1998
1998 drought
continued till 2001-
02, 2014-17
Intense Heat Waves ---2003, 2005, 2007,
2010, 2015
Severe Cyclonic Storms/Wind
Storms1999 2007, 2010, 2016
Extreme Climate Events in Pakistan
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GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX, 2017
SOURCE: HTTP://GERMANWATCH.ORG/DE/DOWNLOAD/16411.PDF
Pakistan is consistently rated among the top 10 in the list ofcountries most affected by Climate Change 20
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(1) High elevation region (Source)
(3) Indus Delta region
(2) Water use region
PAKISTAN’ WATER RESOURCES
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND PAKISTAN’S WATER WOES
DATA SCARCITY AND ABSENCE OF HIGH ELEVATION CLIMATE DATA
HEAVY DEPENDENCE OF IRS FLOWS ON KARAKORUM GLACIERS AND SNOW
MELT (60-70 % VS 10-15 % FOR INDIA)
DECREASING PER CAPITA WATER AVAILABILITY (DECREASED FROM 5800 M3 IN
1950 TO LESS THAN 1000 M3 AT PRESENT)
TRANS-BOUNDARY WATERS ISSUES
LARGE YEAR TO YEAR VARIABILITY OF IRS FLOWS
LOW STORAGE CAPACITY OF PAKISTAN; ONLY EQUIVALENT TO 30 DAYS OF
RIVER FLOWS WHILE IT IS 120 DAYS FOR INDIA, 700 DAYS IN EGYPT
DETERIORATING G/WATER QUALITY IN THE COASTAL/INDUS DELTA REGION
DUE TO REDUCED KOTRI DOWNSTREAM FLOWS AND SEA LEVEL RISE22
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PAKISTAN’S RESPONSE
• RESEARCH
• Policy
• Action
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PAKISTAN’S CLIMATE AGENDA
• SAFETY AND WELLBEING OF THE PEOPLE
• SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
• FULFILLING INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS
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PAKISTAN’S STANCE
• ADAPTATION IS OUR PRIORITY
• BEING A RESPONSIBLE NATION, WE ARE PUTTING A LOT OF
EFFORTS IN MITIGATING OUR EMISSIONS E.G. PROMOTING
RENEWABLES, CONVERTING COAL PLANTS TO LNG AND VAST
AFFORESTATION DRIVES.
• WITH THE NEEDED FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES, WE CAN ENHANCE OUR EFFORTS MANY FOLDS
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RESEARCH
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V =f(PI- AC )
Where V is vulnerability, PI is potential impact (=exposure + sensitivity), and
AC is adaptive capacity
Defining Water system’s Vulnerability
The degree of its inability to perform its normal function
under changing environmental/climatic and socio-economic
conditions
Adopted from Stathatou et. al. (2016)
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Glaciers of the HKH region
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Upper Indus Basin
(UIB) region
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• Total Glacial Area…. = 15061.74 sq.km
• Est. total Ice Reserves..……….. = 2,174 Km3
• Total number of Glaciers……. = 11,413
• Area of the largest glacier…. = 925.93 Km2
Source: ICIMOD (2011)
Glaciers of UIB
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Contribution of Snow/glaciers in UIB flows
• Snow/glacier melt contribute about 60-70% in upper
Indus flows (Tarbela dam inflows)
Glacier melt
Snow melt
Base flow
Total flow
Source: Mukhopadhyay and Khan (2015)
(Average 1969-2010)
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Indus vs Principal Rivers of the Himalayan Region
River Name Length (km) Mean
Discharge
(m³/s)
Glacier Melt in River
Flow (%)
Yangtze 6,300 34,000 >18.5
Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3
Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1
Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 Small
Mekong 4,600 11,048 6.6
Indus 2,900 5,533 >50
Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8
Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3
Tarim 2,030 146 40.2
Source: ICIMOD
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RETREATING GLACIERS AROUND THE WORLD
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33Honeycomb Glacier, (USA)
Muir Glacier and Inlet, Alaska.
Rhone glacier (Swiss)
Mid-1890s August 11,
2005
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Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya
Kargel et al. (2011)
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MELTING OF THE ICE CAP OF MOUNT KILIMINJARO, TANZANIA
2000 1993
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Bolivia's Chacaltaya Glacier (World’s Highest Ski Resort @ 17,785 ft): VanishedSource: WGMS (2016)
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37Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service (2016); http://wgms.ch/latest-glacier-mass-balance-
data/
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GLACIERS’ RESPONSE IN THE KARAKORAM
(PAKISTAN)
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Karakoram cryosphere under CCThe “Karakoram Anomaly”
(Stability/Enhancement of Glaciers)
According to a 2005 research study by Prof.
Kenneth Hewitt, In contrast to reduction in glacier
volume worldwide, most of the high elevation
glaciers of central Karakorum (Pakistan) are
either stable or gaining mass.
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Source Finding
Hewitt, 2005 Hewitt, 2011Copland et al., 2011Dirk Scherler et al. (2011)Gardelle et al., 2012Sarikaya et al., 2012Kääb et al., 2012Janes and Bush 2012Wiltshire 2013Minora et al. 2014 (deb. Thickness)Kääb et al., 2015 (K_P Anomaly)Paul, 2015Brahmbhatt et al., 2015Nathan et. al. (2017) in Nature_CC (summer vortex)
Stable/slightly advancing glaciers
Karakoram cryosphere under changing climateThe “Karakoram Anomaly”
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Possible factors causing the ‘Karakoram Anomaly’
- the debris cover thickness (Minora et al. 2014).
- Different weather regime in Karakoram, directly affected by
westerly weather pattern (Kapnick et al., 2014).
- Decrease in summer temperatures and an increase in
precipitation (Yao et al., 2012; Palazzi et al. (2013); Bocchiola
and Diolaiuti (2013).
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• A very recent study (in Nature Climate Change) reveals growing
evidence that high mountain regions are warming faster than lower
elevations
• Impact: such warming can accelerate many environmental changes
such as glacial melt and vegetation change etc., much faster
• More and better data is urgently required to confirm this
“Elevation Dependent Warming”
(faster warming rates at higher elevations)
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EDW in Pakistan?
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PROJECTED IMPLICATIONS ON INDUS RIVER FLOWS DUE TO MELTING OF HKH GLACIERS
• Immerzeel et al. (2009) conclude “Even if the glaciers vanish completely, Indus river flows will only decrease by 15 % overall, and no change for the dry-season”
• Lutz et al. (2014) “..an increase in runoff at least until 2050 due to faster melt in the upper Indus Basin.”
• Lutz et al. (2016): “ increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges; high flows and total water availability decreases due to reduced precipitation in combination with increased evapo -transpiration. Higher spring flows due to earlier onset of snow and glacier melt;
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GLACIER RICH BASIN (GILGIT)
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SNOW RICH BASIN
(KABUL)
Future flood events
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INDUS AT BESHAM QILA
Statistically non-significant trend
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Ja
n
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Dis
ch
arg
e (
Cu
me
cs
)
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Vulnerability of UIBunder climate changeClimate Change Scenario
(CCS): ∆Temp: +3°C,
∆Glacier Area: - 50%
(Source: Hewitt 2003, Ashraf
et al. 2012)
GLOFs
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We still do not exactly know;
• Climate and its changes above 5000 m elevation
• Relationship of Temperature and Precipitation change with
elevation in the UIB
• Spatial (E-W and N-S) pattern of changes in climate, climate
extremes and extreme climate events
• The impact of above and changing water demands on water
distribution and management
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Research Challenges
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“...climate change signals are detectable only with long and
continuous records, and at specific elevations..”
“the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of
high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term
monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may
have influenced glacial change”.
Kapnick et al. 2014 in Nature Geoscience
(Long term) Data
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50Source: WAPDA
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Elevation ~4700 masl
Source: WAPDA
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Pakistan’ Policy Response
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Climate Change Policy 2012 (Water Resources Adaptation)
Ensure early rehabilitation and remodelling of existing irrigation
infrastructure in the wake of climate change
Encourage introduction of more efficient irrigation techniques
Integrated water resources management
Ensure to safe guard Pakistan’s rights on trans-boundary water inflows
according to international norms and conventions
Protect HKH glaciers by declaring them as ‘protected areas’
Enhance national capacity by strengthening hydro-meteorological
networks and learning new RS/GIS techniques for glacier monitoring
Awareness raising
[Extracts from Pakistan’s ‘Climate Change Policy’ published by Ministry of Climate Change,
Govt. of Pakistan, in 2012]
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Frame Work for Implementation of
Climate Change Policy (FICCP)(Pakistan’s Water Sector Adaptation Actions)
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Innovative techniques
• More efficient irrigation techniques and Local rainwater harvesting measures
• Protecting groundwater through management and technical measures like
regulatory frameworks, water licensing, artificial recharge
• Wastewater recycling and its reuse
Adaptation Actions are based on following
major Strategies
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Water management
• Active participation of farmers in water management along with line
departments.
• Water allocations according to sectoral demands caused by climate change
• Distributing water among provinces as far as possible according to crop sowing
timing.
• Addressing sea water intrusion into Indus delta by allocating required water
flow downstream Kotri
• Effective planning and management of irrigation water.
…….Continued
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Water Storage
• Enhancing country’s water storages capacities (new dams).
• Protecting and conserving water ‘catchment’ areas, and reservoirs to
reduce storage loss due to silting
• Harnessing the hill torrents’ potential.
• Contingency plans for short-term measures to adapt to water shortages to
mitigate drought.
…….Continued
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Glaciers and High Elevation CC
• Trans-boundary joint watershed management of catchment areas
• Declaring glaciated areas as ‘protected areas’ to protect HKH Glaciers.
• Strengthening the present hydrological network to monitor river flows and
flood warning systems
• Enhancing national capacities for monitoring temporal changes in glaciers,
snow cover, and meteorological parameters
…….Continued
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Pakistan has
already adopted
SDGs as a national
development agenda
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RECENT INITIATIVES
• TREE PLANTATION IN KP
• CLIMATE CHANGE ACT
• NATIONAL TREE PLANTATION DRIVE (10
BILLION TREES)
• RECHARGE PAKISTAN
• CLEAN AND GREEN
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• Climate change has serious implications for Pakistan’s water
resources sector due to its dependence on glaciers
• Govt. of Pakistan has started realizing and taking steps
• Scientists need improved observations, satellite-based remote
sensing and climate model simulations to gain a true picture of
warming in mountain regions, specially HKH.
• There is also a need for a strong effort to find, collate and
evaluate observational data that already exists.
• All this effort requires international agreement and collaboration –
and funding
Conclusions
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Thank you
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