global data assimilation of sentinel 5p o3 retrievals · • sunlight: o3 depletion begins when...
TRANSCRIPT
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Atmosphere Monitoring
Global data assimilation of Sentinel 5p O3 retrievalsAntje Inness (ECMWF) & the CAMS team
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AtmosphereMonitoring • CAMS provides global 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition
twice every day
• Horizontal resolution about 40 km x 40 km
• Data assimilation is used to provide the best possible initial conditions for these forecasts
• Assimilated species in NRT: O3, CO, NO2, SO2 & AOD
• GHG system (CO2 &CH4) that runs a few days behind NRT (See talk Jérôme Barré)
• Reanalysis of atmospheric composition (2003 - onwards) available from atmosphere.copernicus.eu
I n t r o d u c t i o n
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AtmosphereMonitoring
A t m o s p h e r i c c o m p o s i t i o n d a t a u s e d i n N R T
Instrument Satellite Provider Type
MLS AURA NASA O3 ProfilesOMI AURA NASA O3 Total columnGOME-2 Metop-AB Eumetsat O3 Total column
SBUV-2 NOAA-19 NOAA O3 layersOMPS Suomi-NPP NOAA /
EUMETSATO3 Profiles
TROPOMI S5P ESA O3 Total column
IASI MetOp-AB LATMOS/ULB Eumetsat
CO Total column
MOPITT TERRA NCAR CO Total column
OMI AURA KNMI NO2 Tropospheric column
GOME-2A/2B METOP A/B Eumetsat NO2 Tropospheric column
GOME-2A/2B METOP A/B Eumetsat SO2 Tropospheric column
MODIS AQUA / TERRA NASA AOD,fire radiative power
PMAp METOP-AB EUMETSAT AOD
StatusSeptember 2019
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Atmosphere Monitoring 2019 Ozone hole
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AtmosphereMonitoring
2 0 1 9 o z o n e h o l e
2019 ozone hole is • very unusual• exceptionally small• displaced off the pole• well forecast by CAMS
Calculated for area south of 60⁰S
< 220 DU
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AtmosphereMonitoring • Chemical ingredients: Ozone depleting substances (e.g. CFCs)
• Isolated conditions: Polar Vortex• Low temperatures (<-78⁰C):
– Formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs)– Reaction on surfaces of PSCs convert reservoir species to more active species
(e.g. ClO) => enhancing O3 depletion– PSCs can lead to denitrification (i.e. removal of NOx that could convert ClO
back into reservoir species ClONO2)
• Sunlight: O3 depletion begins when sunlight returns to polar region
• End of O3 hole:– End of SH spring/early summer– Warming destroys PSCs and breaks down the vortex => mixing in of O3 rich
air and mixing out of O3 poor air
I n g r e d i e n t s f o r O z o n e h o l e f o r m a t i o n
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AtmosphereMonitoring • Stratosphere warms (can be 50⁰C in a few days) and polar vortex
weakens
• Major sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) if winds reverse to easterlies and vortex breaks down
• Planetary scale waves from the troposphere can propagate into stratosphere during winter where they dissipate
• More common in NH where circulation is more disturbed (orography, land sea contrast)
• Last major SSW in SH was in 2002 when polar vortex split
• Currently SH is experiencing a (major?) SSW
• Polar vortex is ‘pushed’ away from the Pole and stratosphere considerably warmer than usual
S u d d e n S t r a t o s p h e r i c W a r m i n g
25 Sep 2002
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AtmosphereMonitoring
S t r a t o s p h e r i c T e m p i n S e p 2 0 1 9 & 2 0 1 8
16 Sept 2019 16 Sept 2018
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AtmosphereMonitoring
Z o n a l m e a n T e m p e r a t u r e a t 1 0 h P a
1 Aug – 16 Sept 2019 1 Aug – 16 Sept 2018Zonal mean T in ⁰C
• Polar vortex weakens (more mixing)• Amount of PSCs reduced Weaker/ smaller ozone hole
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Total column O3 from CAMS on 16 September 2019 and 2018
Dobson Units
16 September 2019 16 September 2018
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Ozone and temperature profiles at South Pole from CAMS and ozone sondes on 8 Sept 2019 and from climatology
Temperature [⁰C]
8 Sep 2019
8 Sep 2019
Ozone [mPa]
2003-2018 climatology
2003-2018 climatology
Climatology from CAMS reanalysis 2003-2018:atmosphere.copernicus.eu
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Ozone and temperature profiles on 4 September 2019 at Marambio and Belgrano
Ozone [mPa] Temperature [⁰C]
SondeMarambio
SondeBelgrano
Dobson Units
Ozone column 4 September 2019
x x
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AtmosphereMonitoring • CAMS ozone analyses and forecasts agree well with ozone sondes
• 2019 ozone hole is exceptionally small
• Likely to be one of the smallest since 1980s
• Meteorological/ dynamical reasons: Sudden Stratospheric Warming in SH
• Not a sign that ozone hole problem is solved!
• Forecast for the next 5 days
O z o n e h o l e s u m m a r y a n d o u t l o o k
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AtmosphereMonitoring • CAMS ozone analyses and forecasts agree well with ozone sondes
• 2019 ozone hole exceptionally small
• Likely to be one of the smallest since 1980s
• Due to meteorological/ dynamical reasons: Sudden Stratospheric Warming in SH
• Not a sign that ozone hole problem is solved!
• Forecast for the next 5 days
O z o n e h o l e s u m m a r y a n d o u t l o o k
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AtmosphereMonitoring
M o r e i n f o r m a t i o n
• More info about the ozonehole: atmosphere.copernicus.eu/monitoring-ozone-layer
• Satellite monitoring plots on: atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams_monitoring/
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AtmosphereMonitoring
S u d d e n S t r a t o s p h e r i c W a r m i n g 2 0 1 9
Temperature and geopotential at 10 hPabetween 1 Aug – 16 Sep 2019