global economic outlook june 2009. good news
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Economic Global Economic OutlookOutlook
June 2009June 2009
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Good NewsGood News
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Credit Standards Getting Easier
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Foreign Ownership of Stocks and Bonds
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10-yr Treasury Yields
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ConcernsConcerns
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Sources of Economic Growth
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Percent of Long-term Unemployed
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Unemployment Rate and NAIRU
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HousingHousing
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State & LocalState & Local
GovernmentsGovernments
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S&L Budget Gaps
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State and Local Government Drag
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S&L Purchases as % of GDP
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Sales Tax Collections
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State and Local Property Taxes
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StimulusStimulus
No AmmunitionNo Ammunition
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Budget Deficits % of GDP
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Real Federal Funds Rate
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Inflation Expectations
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OOOOOOoooutpOutput Gap
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Taylor’s Rule
Actual
Federal Funds Rate
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Change Policy
•Language
•Interest Rate
•Sell MBS
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- 1
- 0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
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European Economic Growth
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
European Bank’s Exposure to Greece Billions of US dollars
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Share of U.S. Exports
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OutlookOutlookBought TimeBought Time
Vs.Vs.
Deficits RemainDeficits Remain
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Debt Maturity Schedule
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Who Should Leave Euro?
•PIGS
•Germany
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Euro Breakup?Euro Breakup?Political UnionPolitical Union
Vs.Vs.
Economic UnionEconomic Union
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Global Debt Global Debt ProblemProblem
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Solve Debt Solve Debt Problem?Problem?GrowthDefaultInflation
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Debt to GDPDebt to GDPOver 90%: 1.7%Over 90%: 1.7%
Vs.Vs.
Below 30%: 3.5%Below 30%: 3.5%
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Over 100%Over 100%
Stunt GrowthStunt Growth
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- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
0
1
2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Euro Economic Growth (% change Year over Year)
Forecast
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Asia Economic Growth
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Asia:V-Shaped
•Trade Rebound
•Inventory Building
•Capital Inflows
•Strong Domestic Demand
•Weak Financial Sys.
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Asian Dependence on Europe
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Asian Exports to AE and China
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China’s Infrastructure Spending
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China’s Bank Lending
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China’s Property Prices
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China’s Inflation
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Value of Chinese Yuan
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8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
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Global Global ImbalanceImbalance
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Rebalancing Global Trade
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StocksStocks
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