global electrified vehicles outlook - ptt prism ev market...market framework of electrified vehicle...

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Siri Kanjanasiri, Research Analyst

[email protected]

ASEAN Powertrain Compliance and Forecasting

Global Electrified Vehicles Outlook

September 18, 2018

PTT Synergy Hall, Energy Complex,

Bangkok


Contents

ADNEGA 2

SHI TUOBA MARKIT 3

EV OUTLOOK 4-10

VEx fo metsys noisluporP by IHS Markit automotive 5

kooltuo noitcudorp (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele labolG 6

kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele labolG 7

8 kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele NAESA

9 kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele dnaliahT

VEx sMEO production forecast outlook 10

VE ROF SROTCAF YEK 11-20

(VEx) elcihev deifirtcele fo krowemarf tekraM 12

evitcepsrep tnemnrevoG 13-14

evitcepsrep yrtsudnI 15-16

evitcepsrep remusnoC 17-18

evitcepsrep ygolonhceT 19-20

IMPLICATION TO GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET 21-23

dnamed leseid dna enilosag VL yrlaviR 22

32 dnamed leseid dna enilosag VL ymonotuA

Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018

2


We think about the world in a distinct way.IHS Markit is harnessing the deepest sources of information, analytics and expertise to forge solutions for the industries and

markets that drive economies worldwide.

We call this The New Intelligence.

Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018About IHS Markit

3

The automotive sector is one of the biggest and

most competitive markets in the world and relies

on in-depth analysis for its daily operations.


EV Outlook


4


Propulsion system definition of xEV by IHS Markit Automotive

Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

5

100% 0%

ICE

MHEV

HEV

xEVBEV

H

FCEV

Ele

ctr

ific

ation

Internal Combustion

Engine

Mild Hybrid

Electric Vehicle

Fossil fuels (Co2)

Hybrid

Electric Vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid

Electric Vehicle

Fuel Cell

Electric VehicleBattery

Electric Vehicle

PHEV

Source: IHS Markit



6

20

30

20

18

0.6M

4.4M

North America

20

30

20

18

1.2M

16.5M

Europe 20

30

20

18

1.2M26.6M

China

20

30

20

18

40k

0.9M

ASEAN

20

30

0.8M

South America

20

30

20

18

20k

0.4M

Middle East/Africa

20

30

20

18

2.7M

India

0.2M

20

30

20

18

2.3M

7.4M

Japan/Korea

Global Electrified Vehicles (xEV) production outlook China takes lead as largest EV market/production region globally. Growth for xEV overtakes the conventional

vehicles and volumes will surge from only 5.5M today to 60M by 2030.


Global Electrified Vehicle (xEV) OutlookxEV production is expected to reach over 50% of total global light vehicle production by 2030. Production demand

growth for ICE is decreasing over time.


7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mill

ion

s

BEV PHEV HEV ICE

96M

Global Light Vehicle Production by Propulsion System through 2030

© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

ICE vs xEV in 2025 / 2030


BEV7% PHEV

6%

HEV28%

ICE59%

2025

BEV9% PHEV

8%

HEV36%

ICE47%

2030

116M


ASEAN electrified vehicle (xEV) outlookElectrified Vehicle (xEV) expected to eventually grow at slower pace in the region, mainly driven by government EV

schemes, however, ICE remains the mainstream.


ASEAN xEV market outlook by propulsion system through 2030


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mill

ion

s

BEV xHEV ICE

8


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mill

ion

s

BEV xHEV ICE Optimistic Forecast Scenario


9

Thailand xEV market outlook by propulsion system through 2030


ICE vs xEV in 2025 / 2030


xEV CAGR: 80%

(2016-2020)xEV CAGR: 12%

(2021-2025)

xEV CAGR: 7.4%

(2026-2030)

BEV2%

xHEV21%

ICE77%

2030

BEV1%

xHEV15%

ICE84%

2025

Thailand electrified vehicle (xEV) outlookIHS Markit expected xEVs will reach over 0.65M units or 23% of total production by 2030.



10

Thailand xEV forecast by OEMs through 2030


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2018 2022 2026 2030

Tho

usands

Toyota Honda Nissan Mercedes-Benz BMW

• Toyota invested the battery production facilities in

Thailand for their hybrid model lineups for domestic and

export with annual capacity 70K units, and will be

operational from 2020. Most passenger cars expected to

equip with hybrid, while BEV is likely to be assembled

from 2021.

• Honda is anticipated to establish the battery and hybrid

component facilities for the local production of their hybrid

vehicles within 2020.

• Nissan planned to participate both hybrid (HEV) and

battery electric vehicle (BEV) scheme and make Thailand

as export base of HEVs in the region.

• Mercedes-Benz is currently assembling all model line up

with Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV), its local battery facilities will

be ready for production from 2019.

• BMW also established the battery plant in Rayong and

will be ready for local production from 2020.

OEM’s xEV production forecast outlook


Key Factors for EV


11


Market framework of electrified vehicle (xEV)

Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV

12

Market Framework $

H

Policy & Regulatory Compliance

Cost Optimization

Energy Density & Range

Charging times

Charging Infrastructure

EV Subsidies/Incentives

BEV

FCEV

PHEV

HEVMHEV

ICE


Government perspective


13

Market Framework $

H



Charging times



BEV

FCEV

PHEV

HEVMHEV

ICE

Cost Optimization



14

Compliance

Target and

Production

Regulations

US

• GHG is focusing on

CO2 emission.

• CAFE is focusing on

fuel consumption.

• National regulation

applies to 40 US states.

OEMs have to comply

with GHG and CAFE.

• However, California

ZEV is stricter targets

than national regulation.

• Target CO2 emission

reduction of 15% by

2025 and 30% by 2030

for passenger vehicles

and vans.

• The diesel scandal

made governments and

the EU turn against the

technology.

• OEMs are force to

produce NEVs credit into

market.

2019: 10% V.

2020: 12% V.

• Up to 30 cities to

introduce city restrictions

for ICE vehicles and

promote NEV

penetration.

EU China

ZEV

GHG

CAFE

CO2NEV Credit

CAFC

• Thai government

expected to increase

1.2M units of EV on the

road by 2036.

However, Government

EV scheme is only

investment incentive

programs not a

compulsory.

• Indonesia plans to

announce the Low

Emission Carbon

Emission Vehicle

(LCEV) regulation in

late 2018 but remains

unclear.

ASEAN

Only emission

standard adoption

Government perspectiveEV is significantly pushed by compliance target and regulations in developed regions and China, while a long road

ahead for EV in ASEAN that remains unclear.


Industry perspective


15

Market Framework $

H



Charging times



BEV

FCEV

PHEV

HEVMHEV

ICE

Cost Optimization



16

Industry

Perspective

• By 2010, a battery pack

used to cost $1,000 kWh,

then decline to $270 kWh

in 2017, then expected to

stand at $100/kWh in

2030.

• Chinese battery suppliers

increasingly in response to

local demand and exports.

• Battery costs to decrease

thanks to growing xEV

demand.

• Range (along with Fuel

Price) remains the key

bottleneck for overall mass

market.

- PHEV: 30-50 km

- BEV: >200 km

• Initial BEV volume

potential restricted mainly

to urban areas and for

secondary vehicles.

• Home charging possibilities,

while public charging

remains obstacle.

• Changing time expected to

shorter thanks to upcoming

battery technology (Solid

state).

• Quick charging technology

expected to be faster and

become more practical.

CostEnergy Density &

RangeCharging Time

• Thailand: Charging

station to quickly expand

by private and

government parties, e.g.

Daimler 70 stations, EA

1000 stations, EVAT 150

stations, but remains

inadequate especially in

rural areas.

• By 2017-18, compared to

number of charging

station are as follows

- China: nearly 630,000

stations

- US: approx. 48,000

stations

- EU: approx. 100,000

stations

Charging

Infrastructure

Industry perspectiveOverall situation is being developed in a way that supports xEV, but growth is different across the regions for many

reasons.


Consumer perspective


17

Market Framework $

H



Charging times



BEV

FCEV

PHEV

HEVMHEV

ICE

Cost Optimization



18

Consumer

Perspective

• Subsidies to play a significant role in the short-term forecast as they strongly increase the attractiveness of xEVs.

• In US, Incentives expected to run out at the end of the forecast timeframe.

• In China, Central Government: Purchasing incentives on BEVs and PHEVs – scope decreasing every two years and program to run

out in 2021 and not expected to be renewed.

- Purchase Tax: 10% tax reduction on the net price for NEVs – expected to remain in place.

- Local Governments: Several local governments with direct incentives for NEVs (e.g. Beijing & Shanghai).

• In Thailand, the Thai government has announced excise tax rates focused on increasing adoption of alternative powertrain vehicles

in the country. Under the new tax structure, the excise tax on battery-electric vehicles has been reduced from 10% to 2%.

EV subsidies/incentives

Consumer perspectiveSubsidies or incentives are the key to attract consumer acceptance at the beginning.


Technology perspective


19

Market Framework $

H



Charging times



BEV

FCEV

PHEV

HEVMHEV

ICE

Cost Optimization



20

Technology

Perspective

• ICE production continues

in emerging markets with

stricter regulation and

higher vehicle efficiency

• Developed markets, e.g.

US, China and EU

introduced compliance

targets which increase

pressure for OEMs to

develop new framework for

xEV

• xEV Technology cost down

expected to reach a tipping

point for only some

markets

• MHEV demand expected to increase globally thanks to

reachable technology as a way to reduce emission,

particularly developed by Japanese OEMs

• Government incentives and lower vehicle prices expected to

trigger HEV growth in emerging markets driven by mid- to

high income people, while small engines vehicle remains

mainstream.

• More OEMs to compete in PHEV globally given emission

advantage, but price offering of the PHEV remains high due

to technology cost

• BEV is on the rise for some regions where the situation has

been successfully developed to attract local demand, e.g. US,

EU, and China, whereas, BEV in ASEAN is still in the initial

stage.

• Implementation of FCEV

technology remains

difficulties for most

markets in the world, but

development continues

particularly from Japanese

OEMs

• Infrastructure remains

constraints and limited

ICExEV

(Excluded FCEV)FCEVH

Technology perspectivePolicy makers make it hard for ICE technology, while xEV opportunities opens globally regardless market.


Implication to Global Energy Market


21



22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Rivalry scenario: World LV gasoline and diesel demand

Note: Gasoline demand includes two-wheelers in addition to LVs. Other demand sources are not included. Diesel demand is for LVs only.

Source: IHS Markit, IEA © 2018 IHS Markit

MM

b/d

Gasoline, Rivalry 2018

Gasoline, Rivalry 2017

Gasoline history

Diesel, Rivalry 2017

Diesel, Rivalry 2018Diesel history


Rivalry LV gasoline and diesel demandComparison of 2017 and 2018 scenario outlooks.



23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Autonomy scenario: World LV gasoline and diesel demand

Note: Gasoline demand includes two-wheelers in addition to LVs. Other demand sources are not included. Diesel demand is for LVs only.

Source: Projections from IHS Markit; history from IHS Markit and IEA © 2018 IHS Markit

MM

b/d

Gasoline, Autonomy 2018

Gasoline, Autonomy 2017

Gasoline history

Diesel, Autonomy 2017

Diesel, Autonomy 2018Diesel history


Autonomy global LV gasoline and diesel demandComparison of 2017 and 2018 scenario outlooks.

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