global emission
TRANSCRIPT
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Global and Regional Emissions andMitigation Policies
(with Application of ERB model for India)
P.R. Shukla
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Top Down models
Energy Economy linkages Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price
adjustments
Endogenous determination of prices
Feedback of prices on GDP Demand endogenously determinedSupply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously
specified
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ERB Model : Application for India
Disaggregation by fuel typeConventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power,
hydroelectric power, solar electric power
Global scale and regional detail
Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-NewZealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other SouthAsian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India
Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095
Four modulesSupply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions
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Overview: ERB
RegionalLabour
Forces
Regional
Labour
Productivities
RegionalGNP
Technical
Change
Regional
taxes and
tariffs
Regional
resource
constraints
Technology
and Cost
Char.
Regional
Energy
Demands
Regional
Prices
World
Prices
RegionalEnergy
Supplies
CO2Emissions
Regional
Population
GlobalSupplies
and
Demands
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Supply
Supply categoriesResource constrained exhaustible
conventional oil and gas
production rates follow logistic paths
Resource constrained renewable
hydro
production rates follow logistic paths
Backstopunconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclearinfinitely elastic supply schedule
Supply by grades
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Demand
Demand depends on population, GNP, and prices
Regional prices of oil, gas and coal determined from
world prices, transportation cost and taxes or subsidies
Regional prices of secondary fuels from the price ofsix primary energy fuels
Cost and supply of hydro determined exogenously
Market share of five fuels determined by logitframework
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Demand
Energy service prices for Residential/Commercial,Transport and Industry sectors
Sectoral energy service demand is determined usingincome and price elasticities
Fuel shares, fuel rates, and technologicalimprovement determine fuel demand in end-usesectors
Fossil fuel demand for primary energy is sum of
demand from end-use sectors, electric utilities andsynfuel conversion from coal.
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Energy balances
Markets for nuclear, solar and hydro arecleared as identities
Energy market for oil, gas and coal are cleared
through price adjustments in an equilibriumframework
Excess demand in each of the markets asfunction of prices
Price elasticities obtained by numericalprocedure and used to revise the prices formarket clearance
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Carbon emissions determined by applying
carbon coefficients
Zero carbon release coefficients for nuclear,
solar and conservation
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Key parameters in Reference Case
Population
Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050)
Labour productivity
Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050) Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency
improvement
Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050) Fossil fuel resource base Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels
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Intervention scenarios
Advance technologies Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass
available at $1.40 per GJ and 80 percent at $2.40 per GJ
by 2020 Exogenous global end-use energy intensity improvement
rate reaches 2 percent per year by 2050
Carbon Tax
$100 tax per tonne of carbon content in the fuels imposedin each region
Stabilisation of emissions Global carbon emissions restricted to 7850 TgC (550
ppmv) in the terminal year
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0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
TrillionDollars
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSUACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
TrillionDollars
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSUACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
Regional GDP Reference Case
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0
5
10
15
20
25
BtC
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD W e
JANZ EE/FSU
ACENP MIDEAST
AFR LA
INDIA
Region 1990 2095
US 23 12
OECD West 17 7
JANZ 6 3
AFR 3 12
EE/FSU 27 12
LA 4 7
MIDEAST 3 4
ACENP 15 35India 3 10
Global Carbon emissions: Reference Case
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1370 EJ 123 EJ
Global Primary Energy Consumption:
Reference Case
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
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Global Primary Energy Use by Fuel Type:
Reference Case
0
400
800
1200
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exajoules
OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR
0
400
800
1200
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exajoules
OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR
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Price of traded fuels - IS92a
0
2
4
6
810
12
14
16
18
20
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
1985US$/GJ
OIL GAS COAL
0
2
4
6
810
12
14
16
18
20
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
1985US$/GJ
OIL GAS COAL
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Energy Intensity IS92a
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Global Primary Energy Consumption: Tax Cases
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
E
J
No tax $10 Tax $100 Tax $150 Tax
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
E
J
No tax $10 Tax $100 Tax $150 Tax
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Primary Energy Consumption in India : Tax Cases
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exa
jou
les
No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax
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Global Carbon Emissions Tax Cases
15000
20000
25000
Carb
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2500
3000
bo
n
Carbon Emissions in India: Tax Cases
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ERB Tax Cases - Global v/s India
Global IndiaTax Level Carbon Energy Carbon Energy
mitigation (%) reduction (%) mitigation (%) reduction (%)$10 5 2 4 2
$25 12 5 10 4
$50 24 10 19 7
$100 40 19 30 12
$150 49 26 35 20
Cumulative - 1990 to 2095
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Advance Technology
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exajoules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exajoules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exajoules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exajoules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
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Stabilisation
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joules
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
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Carbon Emissions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Teragrams
Carbon
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Teragrams
Carbon
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
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Methane Emissions
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Milliontonnes
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Milliontonnes
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
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N2O Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Thousand
tonnes
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Thousand
tonnes
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exajoules
IS92a IS92c IS92e Adv.Tech $100 Tax 550 ppm
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exajoules
IS92a IS92c IS92e Adv.Tech $100 Tax 550 ppm
Global Primary Energy Use - Scenarios