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UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities
and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable development
Room XXVI Palais des Nations
Geneva, Switzerland
Global Energy Policy and Coal
by
Prof. F.-J. WODOPIA Vice-President, EURACOAL
20 MARCH 2013
This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
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Global Energy Policy and Coal
UNCTAD - Multi-year Expert Meeting on
Commodities and Development
Geneva, 20-21 March 2013
Prof. F.-J. WODOPIA Vice-President, EURACOAL
20 March 2013 Geneva
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Slide 1
EURACOAL: 35 members from 20 countries ■ COALPRO - Confederation of UK Coal Producers
(GBR)
■ DEBRIV - Deutscher Braunkohlen-Industrie-Verein (DEU)
■ GVSt - Gesamtverband Steinkohle (DEU)
■ MMI - Mini Maritza Istok (BGR)
■ PPC - Public Power Corporation (GRC)
■ PPWB - Confederation of the Polish Lignite Producers (POL)
■ ZPWGK - Polish Hard Coal Employer´s Association (POL)
■ ENEL (ITA)
■ ZSDNP - Czech Confederation of Coal and Oil Producers (CZE)
■ APFCR - Coal Producers and Suppliers Association of Romania (ROU)
■ BRGM - French Geological Service (FRA)
■ CARBUNIÓN - Federation of Spanish Coal Producers (ESP)
■ CoalImp - Association of UK Coal Importers (GBR)
■ D.TEK (UKR)
■ EPS - Electric Power Industry of Serbia (SRB)
■ GIG - Central Mining Research Institute (POL)
■ HBP - Hornonitrianske bane Prievidza (SVK)
■ ISFTA – Institute for Solid Fuels Technology & Applications (GRC)
■ Mátrai Kraftwerke (HUN)
■ PATROMIN - Federation of the Romanian Mining Industry (ROU)
■ Premogovnik Velenje (SVN)
■ RMU Banovici D.D. (BIH)
■ Swedish Coal Institute (SWE)
■ TKI - Turkish Coal Enterprises (TUR)
■ Ukrvuglerobotodavtsy - All-Ukrainian Coal Employer‘s Association (UKR)
■ Vagledobiv Bobov dol EOOD (BGR)
■ VDKI - Verein der Kohlenimporteure (DEU)
■ Coaltrans Conferences Limited (GBR)
■ EMAG (POL)
■ Finnish Coal Info (FIN)
■ Golder Associates (GBR)
■ Geocontrol (ESP)
■ ISSeP - Institut Scientifique de Service Public (BEL)
■ KOMAG (POL)
■ University of Nottingham (GBR)
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Slide 2
Global energy resources, reserves and use
Reserves
1 344 Gtce
Resources
20 132 Gtce Production: 16.3 Gtce
Reserves/P = 82 years
Resources/P = 1 235 years
sourc
e: B
undesansta
lt für
Geow
issenschaft
en u
nd
Rohsto
ffe
, 2012
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Slide 3
Primary energy demand increase 2000-2010
Source: IEA, WEO 2011
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Slide 4
North America
Central and South America
1,009
90
Africa
257
3,650
China
393
Australia
401
Eurasia
348
315
Far East Mt
130
EU 27
899 526
3,818
405
197
26
67
Japan
175
production consumption
World coal production and consumption 2011
Sources: VDKI, IEA, BP
554
India
668
production:
6,958 Mt
consumption:
6,970 Mt
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Slide 5
Main Trade Flows in Seaborne Coal Trade, 2011
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Slide 6
Interregional fluxes of CO2 embodied in trade (Mt)
Source: Davis, S. J. and Caldeira, K., Consumption-based accounting of CO2
emissions, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0906974107, p. 5688
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Slide 7
Global CO2 emissions, 2009
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Slide 8
CO2 emission changes, 1990 to 2011 in %
EU-27 GB GER CZRUS
UA
USA
worldAUS
Africa
Asia*
Middle
East
India
China
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
*excl. China, India, Korea
Source: H.-J. Ziesing, ET, 2012
%
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Slide 9
Estimated changes in the observed globally and annually averaged surface temperature
since 1990 compared with the range of projections from the previous IPCC assessments
Source: Leaked Second Order Draft, Chapter 1, IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
The 90%
uncertainty
estimate is
depicted by
the grey
shading
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Slide 10
Changes in greenhouse gas emissions (Kyoto gases) and sinks by
source category in the EU, 1990-2008 (weighted by gwp, IPCC’s SAR)
Source: European Environment Agency, 2011
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Slide 11
EU GHG emissions, 1990 to 2020
■ The EU is on target to meet its agreed 2020 emissions reduction target.
■ There is no post-Kyoto agreement, so no 30% target.
■ Debate now should be about post 2020 – as foreseen in ETS Directive.
-6%
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Slide 12
EU ETS allowance prices, Jan 2005 to Feb 2013
■ EU ETS allowance prices reflect the dynamics of a true market.
■ With no “banking” of surplus allowances, prices collapsed in Phase 1.
■ Phase 2 prices have reflected the depressed state of the EU economy.
■ Achieving reduction targets with a low CO2 prices is a good outcome.
■ If a target CO2 price is wanted, then the ETS is the wrong mechanism.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
01/2005 01/2006 01/2007 01/2008 01/2009 01/2010 01/2011 01/2012 01/2013
€/tCO2 €/tCO2
source: European Energy Exchange
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Slide 13
Emissions intensity of electricity & heat production and public
conventional thermal power production, EEA-32-member countries
Source: European Environment Agency
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Slide 14
Estimated impact of different factors on the reduction in emissions of
SO2 from public electricity & heat production, 1990 - 2008, EEA-32
Source: European Environment Agency
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Slide 15
Estimates of annual anthropogenic mercury emissions
from different continents/regions, 1990-2005
Source: UNEP, Global Mercury Assessment 2013
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Slide 16
EURACOAL calls for a 3-step clean coal strategy
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Slide 17
A Strategy for Clean Coal
17% of EU primary energy and 27% of EU electricity come from coal.
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Franz-Josef WODOPIA, Vice-President
European Association for Coal and Lignite AISBL
168 avenue de Tervueren, Bte 11
BE-1150 Brussels
Belgium
www.euracoal.org
Thank you!
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Slide 19
Backup
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Slide 20
Energy poverty
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Estimate of the anomalies based on IPCC scenarios from
RCP3-PD to RCP8.5
http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&id=doi:10.1007/s12398-012-0094-0
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Global distribution of anthropogenic mercury emissions to
air in 2010
Source: UNEP, Global Mercury Assessment 2013
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Relative contributions to estimated emissions to air from
anthropogenic mercury sources in 2010
Source: UNEP, Global Mercury Assessment 2013