global forest products market & resource trendsglobal forest products market and resource trends...
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Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Global Forest Products Market and Resource Trends
Ed Pepke, Ph.D.Forest Products Marketing SpecialistFood and Agricultural Organization
UN Economic Commission for EuropeGeneva, Switzerland
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Contents
I. Forest products markets• Production, consumption & trade• Global• Regional (N. America, Europe, Asia)• Market sectors (logs, lumber, panels)
II. Forest resourcesIII. Certification and certified forest productsIV. Growing the market
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Major info sources
• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database on forest products• FAOSTAT database on forest products• UNECE/FAO Temperate & Boreal Forest Resources
Assessment• FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment• UNECE Timber Committee market forecasts• UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual
market review, 2003-2004”• Global Forest Products Model, by Buongiorno, et al.• UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study• FAO State of the World’s Forests, 2005
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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I. Forest products markets
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Sectoral analysis: Logs
UNECE/FAO definitions:• “Roundwood” is industrial roundwood + fuelwood• “Industrial roundwood” as sawlogs, veneer logs,
pulp logs and other industrial roundwood
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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World production of roundwood, 1961-2003
Source: FAOSTAT
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Bill
ion
m3
Industrial roundwood Fuelwood
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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World roundwood utilization as fuel
• Over half used as fuel– Domestic heating– Cooking
• Mostly in developing countries
• Low value• Modern wood energy
– Small international trade– Growing market– Policy push in Europe
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Regional production of industrial roundwood, 1961-2010
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2010
Bill
ion
m3
Africa Asia America Europe
Source: FAOSTAT and FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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American industrial roundwood consumption and production to 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
C o n su m p tio nP ro d u ctio n
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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American industrial roundwood trade to 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
E xportsIm ports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Factors affecting models and markets
• Gross domestic product (GDP)• Population• Costs and prices (labor, raw material, etc.)• Technological change• Government policies• Socio-economic trends
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Consumption, Production, Trade and Prices: Global Forest Products Model Projections to 2010. By Zhu, S; Tomberlin, D; Buongiorno, J., 1998
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European industrial roundwood consumption and production to 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European industrial roundwood trade to 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asian industrial roundwood consumption & production to 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asian industrial roundwood trade to 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Regional trade, all primary forest products, 2003
Source: FAOSTAT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Europe
N&C Ameri
ca Asia
S.Ameri
ca CIS
Africa
Ocean
ia$
Bill
ion
Exports Imports
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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North American trade, all primary forest products, 1994-2003
Source: FAOSTAT
0
5
10
15
20
25
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Bill
ion
$
Canadian imports USA imports Canadian exports USA exports
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European primary wood products demand, 1980-2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
m3,
RW
E
RWE=RoundWood Equivalent. Source: European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005.
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Major influences on current European forest sector
• Expanding markets, but resources outgrowing markets• Intensifying trade• Recovery from transition to market economies• Non-wood forest products increasing demand, value• Renewable energy policy of EU and member countries• Globalization of forest products trade• Innovation of products and processing• Recycling of paper, use of byproducts
Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Sectoral analysis: Lumber
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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N. American softwood lumber market, 1996-2005
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
130 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Production Consumption
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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N. American softwood lumber trade, 1996-2005
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Imports Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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N. American hardwood lumber market, 1996-2005
20 000
23 000
26 000
29 000
32 000
35 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Production Consumption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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N. American hardwood lumber trade, 1996-2005
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Imports Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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American lumber consumption & production to 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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American lumber trade to 2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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US lumber imports: Europe & S. Hemisphere
Sources: USDA-Foreign Ag. Svc. and Wood Markets Monthly, 2005
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
EuropeS. Hemisphere
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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• Excludes Canadian imports– 98% of US imports in ’96, but 87% 2004– Canadian-sourced imports up 8% 2004
• Aided by Softwood Lumber Agreement duties• Imports of dimension softwood, some EWPs• European-sourced imports
– Increased 52% in 2004– Despite 45% rise in euro value vs. $– “Semi-natural forests” vs. plantation
US lumber imports: Europe & S. Hemisphere
Sources: USDA-Foreign Ag. Svc. and Wood Markets Monthly, 2005
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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• Northern hemisphere sources in 20041. Germany (up 73%)2. Austria (up 75%)3. Sweden (down 2%)4. Czech Rep., Lithuania, Russia, Finland, Estonia
• Southern hemisphere sources in 20041. Brazil (up 37%)2. Chile (up 35%)3. New Zealand (down 3%)4. Argentina, Mexico, other
US lumber imports: Europe & S. Hemisphere
Sources: USDA-Foreign Ag. Svc. and Wood Markets Monthly, 2005
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European softwood lumber market, 1996-2005
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Production Consumption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European softwood lumber trade, 1996-2005
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Imports Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European hardwood lumber market, 1995-2004
10
12
14
16
18
20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Production Consumption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European hardwood lumber trade, 1995-2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mill
ion
m3
Imports Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Europe lumber consumption and production to 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Europe lumber trade to 2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Russian softwood lumber market, 1996-2005
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Production Consumption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Russian softwood lumber trade, 1996-2005
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Im ports Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asia lumber production and consumption to 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asia lumber trade to 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Sectoral analysis: Panels
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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North America structural panel production, 1996-2005
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
OSB Plywood
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European OSB market, 1996-2005
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
m3
Production Imports Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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America panel consumption & production to 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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America panel trade to 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Europe panel consumption & production to 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Increasing small log demand
• For increasing panels production• Lumber production rising slower• For growing paper demand• For rising packaging demand
– Cardboard (paperboard)– Pallets
• Wood-based energy
Main source: European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005.
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Europe panel trade to 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asia panel consumption & production to 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asia panel trade to 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
m3
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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An aside on the Chinese market
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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China’s expanding trade
• Total export value 2003: $390 billion, +36%• Total import value 2003: 371 billion, +39%• Trade surplus: $20 billion• China & Japan 2003 trade: $120 billion, +31%• China & US 2003 trade: $114 billion, +29%• China & Europe 2003 trade: $112 billion, +43%• “Sudden growth” of primary product imports: timber,
steel, oil, soybeans
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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China’s booming timber imports
• Housing construction– Only minority wood-based– Green and healthy communities– Affordable
• Renovation market for houses and municipal• Infrastructure development• Interior woodwork and furnishings• Olympic-related construction (2008 Beijing)
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Sectoral analysis: Paper
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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N. American paper & paperboard consumption and production to 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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N. America paper & paperboard trade to 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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European paper & paperboard consumption and production to 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Europe paper & paperboard trade to 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asia paper & paperboard consumption and production to 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
ConsumptionProduction
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Asia paper & paperboard trade to 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1994 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
ExportsImports
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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New EFSOS market conclusions
• Collapse in CIS and eastern Europe, 1990s
• Partial recovery• Increased small log demand• Increased recovered materials• Intensifying trade• Declining log prices• Renewable energy
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Productivity in wood industry by region
Source: FAO Trends and current status of the contribution of the forestry sector to national economies, 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
$100
0 pe
r em
ploy
ee
North America Developed Asia-PacificWestern Europe Latin AmericaWest and Central Asia Eastern Europe
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Summary: Key market issues (1 of 2)
• Illegal logging and trade of illegally-sourced wood• Certification of sustainable forest management,
markets for certified forest products• Policies for promotion of sound use of wood• Research and development policies• Industry competitiveness and investment policy
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Summary: Key market issues (2 of 2)
• Global competition
Increased efficiency in manufacturing, new marketing strategies
• Climate change policy, carbon trading
• Wood energy promotion policies
• Trade policy, tariff and non-tariff barriers
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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III. Forest resources
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Where are the forests?
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2005
N&C America14%
S. America23%
Europe27%
Asia14%
Africa17%
Oceania5%
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Where are the plantations?
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2005
Note: Plantation areanot good indicator of supply.
Europe17%
Asia62%
Africa4%
Oceania2%
S. America6%
N&C America9%
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Where’s the wood?
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2005
N&C America17%
S. America29%
Europe30%
Asia9%
Africa12%
Oceania3%
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Wood volume (m3) per hectare
72
112
63
55
123
125
N&C America
S. America
Oceania
Africa
Asia
Europe
• N&C America– US 135 m3– Canada 120 m3– Guatemala 350 m3
• Oceania: NZ 125 m3• S. America: Chile 160• Europe
– Switzerland 340 m3– Germany 270 m3– France 190 m3– Russia 105 m3
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Big logs in Switzerland
• 2nd highest wood volume per forest– 340 m3 per hectare– Only Guatemala higher at 355 m3
• 1/3 forested, mostly on higher ground• Why? Centuries of big log forest management• Not only lumber and beams, also protection• But…1999 windstorms
– Took tall, old, large diameter– 2 years’ harvest in 3 days in Switzerland– 1 year’s in all of Europe in 3 days.
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Small logs in Switzerland?
• Climate change
more windstorms, more storm damage and windthrow
• Large logs cost more energy and time for– Transportation and handling– Conversion
• Reduced consumption of solid beams and wide lumber
• Increased composite panels, edge-glued panels, glulam and other EWPs
• European foresters changing “big log” mentality
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000, (million hectares)
DeforestationIncrease in forest area
Net change in forest area
Tropics -14.2 +1.9 -12.3
Non- tropics -0.4 +3.3 +2.9
World -14.6 +5.2 -9.4
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Global deforestation of 14 million
hectares/year > ½ of Idaho deforested
every year.
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
Natural Plantation Total
N & CAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Reasons behind deforestation
• Conversion to other land uses (0.4% of worlds’ forests annually in the ’90s)– Agricultural, including grazing– Urbanization
• Unsustainable silvicultural practices– Unmanaged harvesting– Poor regeneration– Fire, insects and diseases– Overharvesting fuelwood
• Poverty and overpopulation
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Forest resources in N. America
• 80% of net annual increment harvested• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily • Forest area 1990 to 2000
– USA +0.2%– Canada, no significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Forest resources in Europe
• Only 60% of wood grown is harvested• Forest volume increases ~2 million m3 daily • Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares per
year
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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State of Europe’s Forests
• Resources and area increasing• Forest health and vitality are critical• Productive functions maintained• Biodiversity is a focus• Plantations are only 3%• Protective forests are 12%• Socio-economic functions important
Source: Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, 2003
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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New EFSOS forest conclusions
• Harvests < growth• Growing stock rising• Increased trade
local forest problem
• Problems in economic viability with falling prices
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Forest resources in Russian Federation
• Only 16% of wood grown is harvested• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily • Forest area 1990 to 2000: no significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Forest resources: growing stock
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Europe (41) North America CIS
Growing stock Net annual increment Fellings
sMill
ion
m3
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Mill
ion
m3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Europe (41) N. America CIS
Net annual increment Fellings
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Fellings as% of NAI
North America 80%
Europe-41 60%
Western Europe 64%
Nordic countries 72%
Baltic countries 50%
Central & eastern Europe
56%
Russia 16%
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Regional forest resource utilization
Note: Not all “forest available for wood supply”Roundwood does not include chips. Therefore, %ages are gross. Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003, FAO Stat.
Wood in forest
(billion m3)
Roundwoodharvest 2002 (million m3)
Roundwoodharvest
2002 (%)
S & C America 117 439 0.4 %
Russia 89 192 0.2 %
N. America 60 678 1.1 %
Africa 46 613 1.3 %
Asia 35 1,005 2.9 %
Europe 28 395 1.4 %
Oceania 11 63 0.6 %
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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• Removals considerably below growth• Wide variance in utilization rates of NAI • Growing stock increasing in Europe• Southern hemisphere plantations expanding• Oversupply compared to demand for wood• Increasing alternative demands on forests
Forest resources summary
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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III. Certified forest products markets
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Certification of sustainable forest management
• Over 200 million hectares worldwide (5%)• Over half of world’s certified area in N. America• Another 40% in Europe
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Area of certified forests, 1996-2004
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
5/200
35/2
004
Mill
ion
hect
ares
SFIPEFCFSCCSAATFS
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Top 8 countries certified forest area, 2003 and 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Canad
a 200
420
03USA 20
0420
03Finlan
d 2004
2003
Sweden
2004
2003
Norway
2004
2003
German
y 200
420
03Polan
d 2004
2003
Austria
2004
2003
PEFCFSCSFICSAATFS
Mill
ion
hect
ares
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Certification schemes’ market share
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
PEFC30%
FSC25%
SFI23%
CSA15%
ATFS5%
Other2%
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Certified forests by ownership type
Source: Savcore Indufor, 2005
Industry50%
State24%
NIPFO23%
Communal2%
Other1%
Three quarters of the world's certifiedforests are privately owned or managed
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Certified forest products markets
• Growing demand via wholesalers & retailers• Demand boost by government procurement• Private consumer demand remains minor• Chain-of-custody key current development• Most certified timber sold without label
– Potential over 300 million m3 (20% world roundwood production)
– Lost opportunities for market promotion and PR
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Certified forest products markets
• Certification system conflicts discredit forest products in the marketplace
• Variety of schemes necessary for different stakeholders’ interests
• Impacts of forest certification locally significant• Difficulties in certifying natural tropical forests, but
less so for tropical plantations• Markets developing slower than forest certification
Source: Savcor Indufor, 2005
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Certification
• Introduced to combat deforestation in tropics• Most certified forests are temperate & boreal• Therefore, not an instrument to combat
deforestation, but to promote sustainable forest management
• Mutual recognition between schemes an issue• Potential additional roles
– Verification mechanism in Kyoto Protocol– Indication of source, but not proof of legality
Sources: Savcor Indufor, and UNECE/FAO, 2005
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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IV. Growing the market
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Growing too much wood?
Not enough wood products demand?
What are the solutions?
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Grow the wood markets !
• Guarantee that today’s wood products meet consumers’ needs
• Develop new products to meet evolving needs• Develop new markets for wood products:
substitute for non-renewable materials• Promote wood culture outside N. America and
Nordic Countries
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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How can we grow the wood markets?
• Build coordinated, international promotion programs
• Enlarge existing networks and coalitions• Create favorable policy environments• Promote public awareness of key issues and
messages
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Market effects of wood promotion policies
• Multi-country wood promotion essential to enlarge wood’s market share
• Promotion must be cost justified• Identify and know target markets: cultural and
technical dimensions• Fund raising a problem in fragmented industry• Key elements: competence, neutrality, credibility,
resources
Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2001-2002
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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UNECE Timber Committee recommendations
• Develop new products to expand existing markets
• Establish new markets to meet consumers’ needs
• Build international cooperation in promoting environmental advantages of sustainable wood production
• Promote wood culture
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Discussion and Questions
Small Log Conference – Creating Capacity to CompeteCoeur d’Alene, Idaho, USA, 1 April 2005
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Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch448 Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Telephone +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 [email protected]
www.unece.org/trade/timber