Global ForestsGlobal Forests

Prof. Jeffrey R. VincentGraduate School of IR/PS, UCSD

April 18, 2005

Outline

1. Info about me

2. Overview: forests and people

3. Deforestation: causes

4. Deforestation: policy responses

5. “Score card” for forest services

IR/PS

• Graduate School of International Relations & Pacific Studies

• Main degree program: Master of International Relations and Pacific Affairs (MPIA)– Combines management, political science, economics

• International environmental policy career concentration– Specialized track within MPIA– For students interested in careers as environmental

professionals in public, private, and nonprofit sectors– Individual courses are open to undergraduates

My areas of research

1. Biodiversity conservation and timber harvesting in Southeast Asian rainforests

2. Corruption in the global forest sector

3. Air pollution, regional climate change, and agriculture in South Asia

4. Adjusting national income accounts for natural resource depletion

Overview: forests and people

What is a “forest”?

• IGBP: “area dominated by trees forming a closed or partially closed canopy”– According to this definition, 22% of world’s

land area was forested in 1993

• FAO: “areas with a minimum crown cover of 10% and minimum tree height of 5 m”– According to this definition, 27% of world’s

land area was forested in 1995

Benefits of forests to humans

• Timber production

• Fuelwood collection

• Medicinals and other traditional products

• Recreational opportunities

• CO2 sequestration

• Hydrological functions

• Genetic resource values

Human impact on forests

• Deforestation: permanent loss of forest cover

• Fragmentation: discontinuities in forest cover, resulting in reduced habitat value

• Degradation: e.g., due to logging• Forest fires: can be natural, but 90% are

human-caused• Pollution: e.g., acid rain

Deforestation: causes

Global deforestation

• Between 1990 and 2000, 94 million hectares of forest were lost– About two Californias

How much of world’s original (pre-human) forest cover has been lost?

• Matthews (1983): 16%

• Bryant et al. (1997): 50%

Deforestation is not occurring everywhere

Region

Annual change in forest cover

Countries / Countries that

lost forest cover Africa -0.78% 56 / 41

S. America -0.41% 14 / 10

Oceania -0.18% 20 / 6

N. & C. America -0.10% 34 / 13

Asia -0.07% 47 / 15

Europe +0.08% 38 / 3

Deforestation rate vs. Population density

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

People per square kilometer (1999)

Def

ore

stat

ion

rat

e (%

/yea

r, 1

990-

2000

)

• Forest cover increased during 1990-2000 in the world’s most populous countries, China and India– And also in the U.S.

Deforestation rate vs. Income

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Per capita GDP (US$, 1997)

De

fore

sta

tio

n r

ate

(%

/ye

ar,

19

90

-20

00

)

Myth 1:Deforestation is caused by consumption

of timber in rich countries

• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)

• Most of industrial roundwood is consumed within countries where it is harvested, not exported (only 20%), directly or indirectly

• Developing countries import more industrial roundwood and wood products than they export (by 18%)

Myth 2:Deforestation is caused by consumption

of hamburgers in rich countries

• Amazonia has never been a significant exporter of beef– 1982: accounted for only 0.0007% of U.S. beef

consumption, mainly processed beef (e.g., sausage)

– Most of beef is sold within Brazil– In fact, net importer of beef in most years

• Same is true for Central America

Why is the deforestation rate higher in poorer countries?

• Because they are more dependent on agriculture, which uses land

• Countries’ economies undergo structural changes as they grow– The share of agriculture decreases, while the shares of

manufacturing and services increase

– People leave rural areas and move to cities

– Hence, deforestation slows down as countries become richer

Why worry about deforestation?

• If farmers determine that land is more valuable in agriculture than in forest, isn’t deforestation a good thing? – Don’t the benefits outweigh the costs?

Reasons to expect deforestation rates to be too high

1. Agricultural subsidies: exaggerate benefits of conversion

2. Insecure property rights: discourage land owners from thinking long term

3. Lack of markets: discourage land owners from managing forests for nontimber values

Agricultural subsidies

• Ubiquitous• Driving force behind ranching in Brazil until recently

– From the mid-1960s forward, the government of Brazil offered numerous fiscal and financial incentives to ranchers in the Amazon

• Tax exemptions for ranching income• Tax credits for ranching investments• Subsidized loans (interest rate = 6-14% of market rate)

– Value of ranch without incentives: –US$2,824,000with incentives:

+US$1,875,400

Insecure property rights

• Case studies and cross-country statistical studies provide evidence that deforestation rates are higher when property rights are less secure

• And in some countries, establishing property rights requires clearing the forest

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Timber

NTFP

Non-use

Recreation

Hydrological

Hunting

Developing

Developed

Timber vs. nontimber values(Dixon and Lampietti 1995)

Deforestation: policy responses

Policy responses

• Reduce agricultural subsidies

• Strengthen property rights for forestland

• Develop payment mechanisms for nontimber values, within and between countries

Direct payment mechanismsfor forest conservation

• The Nature Conservancy

• Private parks

• Conservation concessions

Conservation concessions by Conservation International

“Score card” for forest services

The world is not running out of wood

• Industrialized countries harvest less timber than they grow– Harvest from all sources is 79% of growth in

North America, 59% in Europe, and only 16% in Russia

• There is already a “tidal wave” of plantation timber, and more is on the way