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1 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHTAPPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Global Launch Vehicle Market Assessment A study of launch services for nano/microsatellites in 2013 17 July 2014 | Atlanta, GA Adam Snow Junior Engineer, Engineering Economics Group [email protected] | +1.205.317.1663 Elizabeth Buchen Director, Engineering Economics Group [email protected] | +1.770.379.8006 John R. Olds, Ph.D., P.E. Chief Executive Officer, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. [email protected] | +1.770.379.8002

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1 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Global Launch Vehicle Market Assessment A study of launch services for nano/microsatellites in 2013

17 July 2014 | Atlanta, GA

Adam Snow Junior Engineer, Engineering Economics Group

[email protected] | +1.205.317.1663

Elizabeth Buchen Director, Engineering Economics Group

[email protected] | +1.770.379.8006

John R. Olds, Ph.D., P.E. Chief Executive Officer, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc.

[email protected] | +1.770.379.8002

2 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Launch Vehicle Market Assessment Overview

Every year SpaceWorks produces a Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment to capture the

growing number of future nano/microsatellite (1 - 50 kg) missions requiring a launch

The assessment is based on publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs as well as

quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected sustainment of current projects and

programs

The data source for this study is the SpaceWorks Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB), an

extensive database of all known historical (2000 – 2013) and future (2014+) satellite projects with masses

between 0 kg and 10,000+ kg

This study presents high-level launch vehicle performance characteristics for 2013 in order to

determine whether the current launch vehicle market can sufficiently meet growing demand in the

nano/microsatellite mass class

Data suggests that the total number of launches per year and the quantity of launches containing

nano/microsatellites have remained constant, despite rapid growth in the nano/microsatellite industry

In order to foster the dynamic growth observed in 2013, the launch vehicle market will need to

provide more launches and increase the portion of launches servicing nano/microsatellites

3 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Recent Historical Trends for Satellites and Launches

While the quantity of launches per year remains relatively constant,

more satellites are launching due to the popularity of nano/microsatellites

High level trends in the number of launches and the number of satellites provide context for the

2013 launch report

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013

Nu

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aun

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, Sat

ellit

es

Year

Historical Launch and Satellite Counts (All Satellites)

Number of Launches Satellites Launched

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 N

um

ber

of

Lau

nch

es, S

atel

lites

Year

Historical Launch and Satellite Counts (Nano/Microsatellites Only)

Launches with Nano/Microsatellites Nano/Microsatellites Nano/Microsatellites Launched

76 satellites

56 nano/microsatellites

4 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Overview of 2013 Launch Performance

Launch vehicles in 2013 enjoyed a 95% success rate; over half of these launches

were destined to LEO, but GEO was also a popular destination with 30% of the total

0

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20

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40

50

60

70

80

90

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aun

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Launch Success and Failure

Failure

Success

Proton, Zenit,

Safir, and

Chang Zheng

(1 failure each)

Total: 82 launches 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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aun

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Orbital Destinations

Earth Escape

MEO

GEO

LEO ISS

LEO

Total: 82 launches

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Top Satellite Developers and Launch Vehicles in 2013

Launch Vehicle Launches

Soyuz (Russia) 16

Long March (China) 13

Proton (Russia) 8

Atlas (USA) 8

Ariane (Europe) 4

Rokot (Russia) 4

Falcon (USA) 3

Delta (USA) 3

PSLV (India) 3

Antares (USA) 2

Top 10 Countries for

Satellite Owners/Operators Top 10 Launch Vehicles

by Launch Family

Country No. of Satellites

USA 105

Russia 37

China (PR) 18

Japan 9

United Kingdom 7

ESA 7

Germany 6

India 6

Canada 5

Multinational 5

Russian launch vehicles were some of the most popular; however, the

United States produced the largest number of satellites by a large margin

6 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

45%

9%

10%

36%

Payload Size

Nano/Microsatellites (1-50 kg) Small Satellites (50-250 kg)

Medium Satellites (251-1000 kg) Large Satellites (>1000 kg)

Total Payloads Launched in 2013 : 215

2013 Payload Size and Launch Manifesting

Though nano/microsatellites lead the 2013 market in quantity,

71% of launches carried only a single payload

Total Launches in 2013: 82

71%

22%

4% 4%

Launch Manifesting

Primary Satellite Only Primary with 1-5 Secondary Satellites

Primary with 6-10 Secondary Satellites Primary with 11+ Secondary Satellites

7 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

53% 11% 36%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Frequency in Delayed Missions

Reasons for Delay

Launch Vehicle Satellite/Program Development Unknown Reason

2013 Launch Vehicle Delays

Of the 82 attempted launches in 2013, 40% experienced delays averaging

115 days; most delays were caused by the launch vehicle

Reason for Delay Average Delay (days)

Launch Vehicle 128

Satellite/Program Development 357

Unknown Reason 95

24%

43%

9%

12%

12%

Delayed Launches

<7 days 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 1 yr or more

Launches Delayed in 2013: 33

8 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

2013 Launch Vehicle Utilization by Payload Mass Capacity

One method of calculating a launch vehicle’s utilization involves:

• Comparing the actual payload mass launched with the vehicle’s maximum capacity to the mission-

specific orbital destination

• This method was employed to determine a baseline launch vehicle utilization estimate

Though many launches require the vehicle’s full capacity,

frequently vehicles launch with excess payload mass capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

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0

%

50% 100

%

25% 75%

Utilization Percentage

47 of 82 attempted launches had

excess payload mass capacity

9 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

2013 Launch Vehicle Utilization by Available Integration Slots

Launch vehicle utilization can also be determined

by investigating available integration slots within

the payload fairing

• Specific integration hardware is used based on the

requirements of the primary payload

• In cases where secondary payload(s) are launched

with the primary, secondary payload adapters are

added

Given the mission’s integration hardware, the

launch vehicle utilization can be estimated by

comparing the total number of payloads with the

total number of distinct integration slots

Launch vehicle utilization can more accurately be

described by the integration slot efficiency at launch

Primary payload

Secondary payload(s)

Integration portal

10 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

2013 Launch Vehicle Utilization by Available Integration Slots (LEO missions)

When estimating launch vehicle utilization by

available integration slots, we assume that no

additional integration hardware is added:

• Only non-human spaceflight missions to LEO

are considered, since most rideshare

opportunities for nano/microsatellites exist on

these missions

• “Cubesat Slots Available” refers to vacant

space within a P-POD or similar deployer;

“Microsat Slots Available” refers to a vacant

integration portal on a secondary payload

adapter

There was little excess capacity for nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg)

on 2013 launches given vehicle integration limitations

88%

6%

6%

Slots Available

No Space Available Cubesat Slots Available Microsat Slots Available

Launches to LEO Excluding Human Spaceflight: 46

11 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

2013 Launch Report Summary

The number of launches per year has remained relatively constant over the last four years (2010

– 2013) with an average of 80 attempts per year

Similarly, the quantity of launches servicing nano/microsatellites has remained constant with 11 launches

in 2013, one less than 2012

In contrast, the number of satellites launched in 2013 grew dramatically from previous years (215

in 2013 compared to 139 in 2012)

Nearly half of 2013 launches experienced significant delay (four months on average), an

unfortunate result for secondary payloads seeking rideshare opportunities

Though many launch vehicles have additional payload mass capacity, it can only be realized with

significant changes to integration hardware, a significant barrier for nano/microsatellites seeking

rideshare launches

Historical analysis suggests the current supply of launch vehicles will not sufficiently serve

future nano/microsatellite market demand

In order to foster the dynamic growth observed in 2013, the market will need to provide

more launches and increase the portion of launches servicing secondary payloads

12 SPACEWORKS COPYRIGHT– APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | [email protected]

1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000