Research London Open

16 January 2014

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 11

Global Macro Daily

Dollar stays bid on strong US data • The dollar continues to strengthen against most currencies, supported by strong

US data. The AUD was the biggest underperformer, falling by 1.1% to its lowest level since July 2010 on the back of weak employment that raised market expectations of a rate cut in February (Full Story). The JPY extended the previous day’s large decline by 0.2%.

• Asian equities were flattish, despite the S&P’s advance to an all-time high. The Topix rose strongly after an upside surprise in Japanese core machinery orders (Full Story), but later pared gains. The S&P may get more support later; two more US banks are due to release earnings on Thursday, following Bank of America’s solid Q4 numbers yesterday.

• Brazil’s central bank hiked the policy rate by a larger-than-expected 50bp, signaling its priority on fighting inflation over the economic slowdown. Given our forecast that inflation will continue to rise strongly, we expect at least a 25bp hike in the February Copom meeting (Full Story). In contrast, India’s inflation is softening (Full Story) and we believe the RBI will stay on hold at its 28 January meeting.

• The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book confirmed the recent upturn in US economic activity, particularly in manufacturing and employment (Full Story). The Empire state manufacturing index surprised to the upside on stronger new orders, shipments, and hiring (Full Story). The PPI rose 0.4% m/m in December, consistent with our view that core goods prices at the consumer level will turn from a mild drag in H2 13 to a mild boost in 2014 (Full Story). We expect today’s CPI release to show headline inflation firmed to 1.5% y/y in December, up from 1.0% y/y through October.

• In Europe, however, inflation remains subdued. Today’s final inflation print for the euro area should confirm weak core price pressures. In Spain and Italy, core inflation declined in December (Full Story). We have revised our UK inflation profile and expect it to remain below target this year (Full Story).

• Real GDP growth in Germany was a modest 0.5% in 2013, as global headwinds and still sluggish demand from other euro area member states led to a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth for the first time since the great 2009 recession. However, domestic demand was fairly robust and both private and public consumption grew about 1%, consistent with our view that growth may accelerate to 2.0% in 2014 as headwinds dissipate (Full Story).

• We expect 2014 to provide a more supportive backdrop for commodity markets, in line with better growth prospects and a slower pace of supply growth. We remain positive on markets leveraged to global growth, including base metals and the PGMs, but view gold and silver with a bearish bias (see Focus).

Market Insights and Events Global 4

Asia Pacific 4

North America 5

Europe 6

EEMEA 6

Latin America 8

The next 24 hours Asia Pacific 9

North America 9

Europe 9

EEMEA 9

Latin America 9

Calendar 10

Contacts 11

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 2

Focus

Commodities in 2014: Base metals likely to gain on slower supply growth and better demand; sell gold on rallies Sudakshina Unnikrishnan

The start of a new year is a good time to explore the key themes likely to face commodity markets. Although speculation about the timing of Fed tapering cast a shadow over risky assets in 2013, clarity in the form of the FOMC’s December announcement has not led to any significant commodity price declines, except for precious metals. Indeed, we argue that commodity markets have not really been key beneficiaries of the Fed’s QE policy; thus, tapering in 2014 is unlikely to imply any meaningful pullback in commodity prices. If anything, the Fed’s decision to taper implies greater confidence in prospects for the US economy, which should bolster underlying commodity demand.

A key supportive dynamic for commodity markets is that the global growth outlook has turned more positive. Barclays’ economists forecast global GDP growth in 2014 at 3.5%, up from 2.9% in 2013. Global growth is not quite at levels that would warrant a sustained and broad-based rise across commodities, but it is an improvement from 2012 and 2013. Although our economists forecast China’s 2014 GDP growth to slow to 7.2% (from 7.7% in 2013), risks of a hard landing of the Chinese economy, which weighed on commodities in Q2 2013, have faded. Furthermore, last week the State Grid Corporation of China announced an ambitious spending target for 2014, which at CNY381.5bn would be up 13% y/y. The new target exceeds our expectations; we think total national grid spending may grow around 10% in 2014. With the power sector comprising more than 40% of Chinese copper demand, this suggests China’s copper demand stemming from the power sector is likely to be strong in 2014 (see 2013 China grid spending beat target despite soft Q4).

Commodities as an asset class unsurprisingly did not find much favour with investors in 2013 amid lacklustre global growth, fears of a hard landing of the Chinese economy, broader weakness across key emerging markets and supply expanding at an impressive pace in many markets. However, in our view 2014 paints a more supportive picture, in line with better growth prospects and a slower pace of supply growth. Recent moves in CFTC managed-money positions reflect a bias toward growth-sensitive commodities and a shift away from commodities such as gold, with its perceived safe-haven benefits. Managed-

FIGURE 1 Production growth should slow for most base metals...

FIGURE 2 …while leading indicators point to further strengthening in demand

Source: ICSG, ILZG, IAI, INSG, Barclays Research Source: Haver, Barclays Research

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Ni

Zn

Sn

Cu

Al

Pb

Base metals production growth differential 2014/2013 (% change y/y)

Slower growth

Faster growth

-0.25

-0.15

-0.05

0.05

0.15

0.25

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13Manuf. Conf. (LHS) Base metals demand (RHS)

Global manufacturing confidence vs global base metals demand

3-month moving average % change y/y

Normalised diff.bal.

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 3

money positions in Comex copper last week were at their highest since February 2011, marking a rather swift reversal from a net short position, while managed-money positions in gold fell to a low of 9.9K lots in early December (the lowest level since our data records began in 2006), while gold ETP outflows continue.

On a sectoral basis, in 2014 we remain positive on markets leveraged to global growth such as base metals and PGMs, but we view gold and silver with a bearish bias. As detailed this week in Metals Magnifier: Buy industrial metals on dips and sell gold rallies in 2014, we think 2014 is likely to mark the end of one of the strongest-ever periods for base metals supply growth, while leading manufacturing indicators are signalling stronger consumption. For the first time in several years, the balance of risks is shifting to the upside. A combination of production cuts (aluminium and nickel), declining output from established mines (zinc) and a slowdown in investment (copper) suggests supply growth has either already peaked or will do so at some point in 2014. In the near term, the Indonesian export ban on nickel ores has come into effect and if it continues is likely to shut off the key source of supply to China’s nickel pig iron plants.

We expect markets such as aluminium and lead to move into deficit, while surpluses in nickel and zinc are likely set to shrink markedly. Even in copper, the one exception where we expect supply to grow faster than demand, the surplus is likely to be very modest. We favour being long nickel in early 2014 given the disruption to supply from the Indonesian ore export ban. We also favour buying copper on dips to the high $6,000s, especially given significant price upside potential in 2015. We see potential for significant upside in lead and zinc prices on a 12-18 month horizon with the lead stocks-to-consumption ratio falling to very low levels and the zinc market moving into the first deficit in almost a decade in 2015.

Across precious metals, we expect the PGMs to gain modestly in 2014, but we expect gold and silver to remain under pressure. We think gold will struggle to hold on to its current gains and we favour selling into rallies in 2014 given that the market faces risk of further disinvestment amid a stronger USD. ETP outflows in gold continue while subsiding tail risks and the prospect of better global growth are likely to act as a dampener on prices.

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 4

MARKET INSIGHTS AND EVENTS

Global

The Global Inflation-Linked Monthly: The waiting game Michael Pond, Khrishnamoorthy Sooben, Chirag Mirani, Henry Skeoch

We see risks to inflation as skewed higher in many developed markets, most notably the US and UK, but we think this will need to become evident in realised prints for breakevens to rally materially. In the euro area, we still expect a normalisation higher in real yields alongside nominals. The outright sell-off, combined with our scenario of improving data in the euro area, should be supportive for breakevens. Full Story

Asia Pacific

Japan December corporate goods price index: Uptrend intact, led by market-sensitive goods Kyohei Morita, Yuichiro Nagai

The corporate goods price index rose 2.5% y/y in December (November: 2.6%), led by market-sensitive goods, and we expect inflation to remain around that level through March due to the effects of JPY depreciation. CGPI inflation is now stronger than PPI inflation in the US. If the rise in materials-related prices starts to feed through to manufactured goods at a faster-than-expected pace, upward pressure should gradually reflect on goods prices in the CPI data as well. Full Story

Japan November machinery orders signal forward increase in capex Kyohei Morita, Yuichiro Nagai

Core orders surprised to the upside in December. Although the Cabinet forecast points to a q/q downturn in Q4, orders now appear to be on track for a third consecutive quarterly gain. Taking today's figures and other data into consideration, we expect capex to return to positive q/q growth in Q4. Full Story

Australia: Employment and unemployment: Dec 2013: A poor end to 2013 Kieran Davies

After an OK gain in November, employment disappointed with a solid fall of 23K in December (Barclays: 5K; consensus: 10K), which was the largest decline since March. The unemployment rate was steady at 5.8%, although it was at the rounding barrier with 5.9% (Barclays: 5.9%; consensus: 5.8%). Despite the stability in December, the unemployment rate seems likely to edge higher this year, which should see the RBA keep a weak easing bias in February. Full Story

Australia & NZ Economics Weekly - Gauging inflation pressure from the business surveys Kieran Davies

We have developed summary indicators for current and expected costs and prices based on a large number of business indicators (extending previous work looking at the labour market and activity, we used principal components analysis to extract the common trend from the series). We find that costs and prices remain well-contained, consistent with monetary policy remaining easy. Expected costs and prices are also subdued, although they provide only a very limited lead on inflation pressures. Prices are correlated with the headline CPI, but have

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16 January 2014 5

understated inflation pressures over the past few years, likely because business surveys cover a broader range of prices than just consumer goods and services. Full Story

China: Strong off-balance-sheet lending drove December aggregate financing Jian Chang, Jerry Peng, Serena Zhou

Total social financing (TSF) came in at CNY1.23trn in December 2013, about the same level as in November, bringing the annual amount of TSF to CNY17.3trn in 2013, up from CNY15.8trn in 2012. This represents a 9.7%y/y increase in 2013, down from 22.9% in 2012. TSF was supported by stronger off-balance-sheet lending in December, while bank loan and bond financing slowed notably. We continue to expect the PBoC to maintain a tightening bias in its monetary policy stance. Full Story

India: WPI begins its move lower Siddhartha Sanyal, Rahul Bajoria

India's headline inflation print for December came in at 6.2% y/y. This is significantly below the consensus of 7.0% and even lower than our estimate of 6.5%. Similar to the CPI, the downside surprise in headline inflation came mainly from the large (30% m/m) drop in vegetable prices as per the official statistics. This steep decline in vegetable prices has finally been reflected in statistics, as prices had started to moderate in November. Full Story

North America

US FI Outlook for January 16: The Treasury curve bear flattens on strong PPI data Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Dean Maki

We believe that intermediate forward rates (3y1y/4y1y) are not high enough to lag in a selloff. In addition, with inflation priced to remain below 2% over the next two years, shorter-term forwards (1y1y/2y1y) have room to outperform. As a result, these trades offer asymmetric payoffs. We also maintain our long the 2s3s5s Tsy fly and short the 5s7s10s Tsy fly recommendations. Full Story

US January Beige Book suggests growth has continued at a 'moderate' pace Cooper Howes

The Federal Reserve's January Beige Book suggested that the US economy expanded at a "moderate" pace in nine of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts from late November through the end of 2013, with the Boston and Philadelphia districts reporting "modest" growth and Kansas City reporting no change. Retail spending was reported as a bright spot, as was manufacturing activity, and two-thirds of districts reported increases in hiring. Full Story

US PPI: Core strength Peter Newland

The PPI rose 0.4% m/m in December, in line with the consensus but below our forecast (0.6%). Gains in gasoline (2.2%) and heating oil (6.4%) were partly offset by a decline in food (-0.6%). The core surprised to the upside, up 0.3% (Barclays and consensus: 0.1%), the largest rise since July 2012. Strength was fairly broad based, with gains in passenger cars (0.2%), light motor trucks (0.5%), pharmaceuticals (0.5%) and household appliances (0.5%). Full Story

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 6

US Empire State index surprises to the upside in January as new orders, shipments, and employment all push higher Cooper Howes

The Empire State manufacturing index printed 12.5 in January, well above the 2.2 reading in December, as well as our forecast (-2.0) and the consensus (3.4). Despite the positive headline readings in recent months, the underlying trend had been softer; on an ISM-adjusted basis, which re-weights each component using the same weights as the manufacturing ISM, the index printed 47.2 in December and 49.3 in November. Full Story

Europe

Auction Preview: 3y, 12y and 15y SPGB auctions Huw Worthington

Today, 16 January 2014, Spain will auction EUR4.5-5.5bn of SPGB 2.15% Apr '17, SPGB 5.9% SPGB Jul 26 and 5.15% Oct '28 SPGB bonds. Full Story

Euro area inflation round-up: Spanish and Italian core inflation likely to be down in December Francois Cabau

Looking into the detailed breakdown of Spanish and Italian HICP for December, we calculate that both countries are likely to have experienced a fall in core prices of 0.2pp to -0.2% y/y and 0.9% y/y, respectively. All in all, barring German final December data released Thursday, we continue to look for the euro area final December headline and core HICP to be both confirmed at 0.8% and 0.7% y/y respectively. Full Story

Germany: Annual 2013 GDP growth estimated at 0.5% Thomas Harjes

The German Statistical Office (Destatis) released its first estimate for annual 2013 real GDP growth at 0.5% (calendar-day adjusted, 0.4% unadjusted), matching expectations. Global headwinds and still sluggish demand from other euro area member states led to a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth for the first time since the great 2009 recession, but domestic demand was fairly robust and both private and public consumption grew by about 1%. Full Story

EEMEA

Turkey: Currency outlook: TRY on trial - More weakness likely Christian Keller, Koon Chow, Durukal Gun

The TRY, despite the sharp fall, is not clearly undervalued, and we expect depreciation pressure to persist. This is due to Turkey's large external funding needs and significant FX balance sheet mismatches in the non-financial sector. Crucially, the continued political uncertainty seems to have made households turn cautious on TRY. Full Story

Investor Trip to East and Southern Africa: Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique, Zambia Ridle Markus, Dumisani Ngwenya, Andreas Kolbe

Please join Ridle Markus (Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Economics Research), Dumisani Ngwenya (SSA economist) and Andreas Kolbe (Head of EEMEA Credit Research) on an investor trip to Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique and Zambia. Meetings in each country will

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 7

cover economic and political developments and prospects, as well as financial market topics, from the points of view of local officials, the private sector, economic/political analysts and multinational institutions. Full Story

African Viewpoints: Strong but fragile growth to continue Ridle Markus, Dumisani Ngwenya, Mike Keenan, Peter Worthington, Alia Moubayed, Koon Chow, Miyelani Maluleke

Although 2013 proved to be a challenging year for African markets, we expect the region to remain the world's second-fastest growing region in 2014. Nonetheless, growth remains fragile in several countries as the continent continues to face headwinds, including rising fiscal pressures. After average growth of 4% in our African region in 2013, we project growth of 4.8% in 2014, underpinned by infrastructural investment and accommodative monetary policy. Full Story

Israel: Inflation surprises on the downside in December Eldar Vakhitov

Israeli inflation was 1.8% y/y in December, lower than our and the consensus forecast of 2.0%. The main reason behind the deceleration of headline inflation has been housing inflation (25% of the CPI basket), which fell to 2.9% y/y (from 3.6% in November). Overall, inflation remains slightly below the middle of the central bank's 1-3% target range, and the Bank of Israel expects it to stay there in 2014. We continue to expect no changes in the policy rate this year. Full Story

South Africa: Retail sales data post upside surprise in November but Q4 still likely to be weak Miyelani Maluleke, Peter Worthington

Retail sales rose by 1.2% m/m sa in November (Oct: -0.3%), delivering a 4.2% y/y increase (Oct: 1.4%) These prints were stronger than both consensus expectations and Absa's forecasts of 0.7% m/m sa and 0.9 y/y. Assuming constant growth in December, fourth quarter retail sales growth looks likely to come in marginally under 2%, which is below the 2.3% average for the first three quarters. This is consistent with our view that household spending is not likely to have provided much of a lift for Q4 growth. Full Story

Poland inflation remains muted at 0.7% y/y Daniel Hewitt

Poland inflation pressures remained very low in 2013, ending the year at just 0.7% y/y. The low inflation pressures, with inflation well below the 1.5-3.5% target, support the NBP's forward guidance to keep its 2.5% policy rates on hold until mid-2014. We continue to believe that the NBP will keep its rate unchanged for an extended period beyond the guidance, expecting the rate hike cycle to begin in November 2014. Full Story

South Africa: December manufacturing PMI falls more than expected to 49.9 Miyelani Maluleke, Peter Worthington

South Africa's December manufacturing PMI came in marginally below the neutral mark of 50 for the first time since April 2013 at 49.9, following a reading of 52.4 in November. The figure was significantly lower than consensus (52.5) and Absa's slightly more bearish forecast (52.1). While the inimical timing of the seasonal holidays in December could have biased the index lower, overall, the weaker-than-expected print suggests that underlying growth momentum is moderate. Full Story

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 8

Hungary inflation drops on energy tariff cuts Daniel Hewitt

Hungary inflation decelerated to 0.4% y/y in December, from 0.9%, pulled down by declines in electricity-gas tariffs due to government mandated administered price cuts. Another factor is falling food prices due to the good 2013 harvest. However, core inflation is higher, having has been pushed up by excise tax and tobacco price increases. The low headline inflation and the stable currency support further cuts in the 3% NBH base rate and we are now expecting cuts to 2.5%, but at a slower monthly pace. Full Story

Investor Trip to Hungary, Poland, and Czech Republic Daniel Hewitt

Please join Barclays senior economist Daniel Hewitt on an investor trip to Hungary, Poland, and Czech Republic. Meetings in each country will cover economic, political, and financial market developments and prospects, from the points of view of local officials, the private sector, and economic/political analysts. Clients are invited to join us in one or more of the countries. Full Story

Latin America

Brazil Copom: Inflation persistence ahead of economic slowdown Marcelo Salomon

In its first meeting of the year, the Copom unanimously hiked the Selic rate by 50bp to 10.5%. In the statement announcing the decision, it made a subtle change: it stated that "at this moment" the committee decided to hike the Selic rate by 50bp (same pace as in December). We believe that this indicates that the committee has grown more concerned with the persistence of the inflationary process than with the current economic slowdown. Full Story

LatAm Credit Strategy: Preparing for a steeper Brazil bond curve Donato Guarino, Bruno Rovai, Marcelo Salomon

We suspect that the Brazil external bond curve has flattened too much at the 10s30s sector. Attractive valuations, coupled with supply pressures, should set the stage for a steepening of the longer end of the curve; hence, we recommend entering a long Brazil 25s/short Brazil 41s trade. Full Story

Costa Rica: More fragmented electorate plays against fiscal reform Alejandro Arreaza, Alejandro Grisanti

Recent polls in Costa Rica have shown a tighter presidential race ahead of the February 2 elections. According to the last CID-Gallup poll, Jonny Araya of the ruling PLN still leads the race with 39% of the votes, followed by Jose Maria Villalta from the leftist Frente Amplio. This opens the possibility of a run-off. A more fragmented electorate could make it difficult to secure the approval of the fiscal reform that the country requires, putting additional pressure on Costa Rican assets. Full Story

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 9

THE NEXT 24 HOURS

Asia Pacific No significant events or releases.

North America US – Inflation: We are forecasting a 0.3% m/m increase in the CPI in December, consistent with an NSA index print of 233.1. Within this we are looking for a 0.2% increase in the core CPI and a positive contribution from gasoline prices, reflecting the combination of a modest increase in market prices and a positive seasonal factor.

US – Philadelphia fed mfg: After declining to 6.4 in December, we look for a rebound to 8.0 in the Philadelphia Fed index in January. While below the levels in the second half of last year, a move further into expansionary territory would be in line with our view that manufacturing activity will continue to pick up in 2014.

US – NAHB housing market index: We look for an increase to 59 in the January NAHB index of home builder sentiment. This would reflect the fading effect of higher mortgage rates earlier this year and would bode well for residential construction activity in 2014.

Europe Euro area – Final inflation: We project both euro area final December HICP headline and core inflation rate to be confirmed, at 0.8% y/y and 0.7% y/y, respectively. In turn, core inflation fall should also be confirmed as the main driver of the headline fall. We project the euro area HICP ex tobacco to come at 117.25.

EEMEA Egypt – Deposit rate: After the 50bp December cut, and with deceleration of inflation, the CBE may cut rates by a further 25bp unless postreferendum politics cause further turbulence.

Serbia – Repo rate: With inflation at historical lows, the relative stability of the exchange rate and talks for a new IMF programme planned to start in early 2014, we think that the central bank has room to deliver another 50bp rate cut.

Latin America Brazil – Retail sales: We expect retail sales to increase 0.40% m/m sa, supported by stronger supermarket sales (1.1% m/m sa), and a more general commerce activity index, which also rose 1.1% m/m sa. Including auto sales and building materials, broad retail sales should gain 0.5% m/m, sa, being consistent with a 1.2% m/m climb in vehicle sales during November.

Chile – Monetary policy rate: While we believe that the BCCh’s current monetary policy stance is dovish, we expect the TPM to remain at its current level until the end of Q1 14. Although activity prints have somewhat surprised on the downside, December’s 0.6% m/m increase of headline CPI is likely to strengthen the rationale behind the BCCh’s decision not to cut the TPM last month. The depreciation of the CLP will also likely cap the downside risks to our expectation of a TPM at 4.5% until Q1 14.

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 10

CALENDAR

Note: All times are Greenwich mean time Sources: Reuters, Market News, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Period Prev -3 Prev -2 Prev -1 Forecast Consensus

- E gypt: Deposit rate, % J an 8.75 8.75 8.25 8.00 8.25- S erbia: Repo rate, % J an 10.50 1.00 9.50 9.00 9.25

09:00 E 18: E CB publishes monthly bulletin J an - -14:15 US : S an Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Washington16:10 US : Fed Chairman B ernanke (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington21:00 Chile: Overnight rate target, % J an 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50

- Brazil: CAGE D formal job creations, k (to 22/01) Dec 211.1 211.1 47.5 - -473.0- Venezuela: Lending, % m/m (to 20/01) Dec 5.5 7.0 5.3 - -- Ukraine: Retail trade YTD, % y/y Dec 9.8 9.5 9.2 7.4 -

00:01 UK: R ICS house price balance Dec 53 57 58 58 56 A00:30 Australia: E mployment change, k Dec 4.8 -0.7 15.4 R - -22.6 A00:30 Australia: Unemployment rate, % Dec 5.7 5.7 5.8 - 5.8 A00:30 Australia: RBA FX transactions market, AUD mn Dec 663 648 444 - 884 A00:30 Australia: Participation rate, % Dec 64.8 64.8 64.8 - 64.6 A07:00 E 28: New car registrations, % y/y Dec 5.4 4.7 1.2 - -07:00 Germany: F inal HICP, % m/m (y/y) Dec -0.3 (1.2) 0.2 (1.6) 0.5 (1.2) P 0.5 (1.2) 0.5 (1.2)07:00 Germany: F inal CPI, % m/m (y/y) Dec -0.2 (1.2) 0.2 (1.3) 0.4 (1.4) P 0.4 (1.4) 0.4 (1.4)08:00 S lovakia: HICP, % m/m ( y/y) Dec 0.0 (1.1) 0.0 (0.7) -0.2 (0.5) -0.1 (0.6) 0.1 (0.7)09:00 Austria: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Dec 0.1 (1.8) 0.0 (1.5) 0.0 (1.5) 0.4 (1.6) -10:00 E 18: F inal HICP, % m/m (y/y) Dec -0.2 (0.7) 0.1 (0.9) … (0.8) P 0.3 (0.8) 0.3 (0.8)10:00 E 18: 'E urostat' core (HICP x fd, alc, tob, ene), % m/m (y/y) Dec -0.1 (0.8) 0.2 (1.0) … (0.7) P 0.3 (0.7) (0.7)10:00 E 18: HICP ex tobacco, index (2005 = 100) Dec 117.09 116.85 117.02 117.25 -11:00 Ireland: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Dec -0.1 (0.0) -0.2 (-0.1) -0.1 (0.3) 0.1 (0.4) -11:00 Brazil: Retail sales, % y/y Nov 6.2 4.3 5.3 5.2 6.213:30 US : CPI, % m/m (y/y) Dec 0.2 (1.2) -0.1 (1.0) 0.0 (1.2) 0.3 (1.5) 0.3 (1.5)13:30 US : Core CPI, % m/m (y/y) Dec 0.1 (1.7) 0.1 (1.7) 0.2 (1.7) 0.2 (1.8) 0.1 (1.7)13:30 US : CPI, NS A index Dec 234.149 233.546 233.069 233.1 233.06613:30 US : Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 11-J an 341 (349) 345 (359) 330 (349) 335 (338) 32815:00 US : Philadelphia Fed mfg index J an 19.8 6.5 7.0 8.0 8.715:00 US : NAHB housing market index J an 54 54 58 59 5809:30 S pain: 3y, 12y & 15y S PGB Auctions € 5 bn10:30 UK: 2044 Gilt auction £ 2 bn

Period Prev -3 Prev -2 Prev -1 Forecast Consensus

12:15 UK: B oE MPC Member B roadbent speaks at London S chool of E conomics17:30 US : Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Virginia

- Russia: Budget level YTD, RUB bn (to 20/01) Dec 626 609 600 -410 -- Venezuela: Unemployment rate, % (to 24/01) Dec 7.8 7.6 6.6 - -- Russia: Trade balance, $ bn Nov 13.8 15.7 13.2 13.0 13.6- Romania: Current account YTD, € bn Nov -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -- Ukraine: Industrial production, % y/y Dec -5.6 -4.9 -4.7 -3.6 -3.3

00:30 S ingapore: Non-oil domestic exports, % y/y Dec -1.2 2.8 -8.8 3.0 1.007:45 France: Budget, year-to date, € bn Nov -93.6 -80.8 -86.0 - -09:00 Czech: Current account, CZK bn Nov -18.5 -6.9 7.8 - 8.009:30 UK: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Dec 0.7 (2.1) -0.9 (1.8) 0.3 (2.0) 0.2 (2.4) 0.3 (2.5)09:30 UK: Retail sales exl. fuel, % m/m (y/y) Dec 0.9 (2.7) -0.7 (2.3) 0.4 (2.3) 0.2 (3.1) 0.3 (3.2)10:00 E 18: Construction output, % m/m (y/y) Nov 0.2 (-0.9) -0.5(-0.7) -1.2 (-2.4) - -12:30 Brazil: E conomic activity index, % y/y Nov 1.3 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.913:00 Poland: Current account, € bn Nov -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.113:00 Poland: Trade balance, € bn Nov 0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.113:30 US : Housing starts, k saar Dec 873 889 1091 975 99013:30 US : Building permits, k saar Dec 974 1039 1017 - 101414:00 Mexico: Unemployment rate, % Dec 5.3 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.314:15 US : Industrial production, % m/m Dec 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.314:15 US : Capacity utilization, % Dec 78.3 78.2 79.0 79.2 79.114:55 US : "F lash" Michigan consumer sentiment index J an 73.2 75.1 82.5 83.5 83.519:00 Argentina: E conomic activity index, % y/y Nov 5.0 5.9 3.2 - 3.121:00 Colombia: Retail sales, % y/y Nov 6.8 2.4 6.6 3.0 4.021:00 Colombia: Industrial production, % y/y Nov -3.7 -1.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.003:00 J apan: Liquidity E nhancement Auction ¥ 300 bn

Friday 17 J anuary

Thursday 16 J anuary

Barclays | Global Macro Daily

16 January 2014 11

RESEARCH CONTACTS

Larry Kantor Head of Research +1 212 412 1458 larry.kantor@barclays.com

Stu Linde Head of Equity Research +1 212 526 4009 stuart.linde@barclays.com

Jeff Meli Co-Head of FICC Research +1 212 412 2127 jeff.meli@barclays.com

Ajay Rajadhyaksha Co-Head of FICC Research +1 212 412 7669 ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.com

Julian Callow Head of International Economics +44 (0)20 7773 1369 julian.callow@barclays.com

Koon Chow Head of EM Strategy +44 (0)20 777 37572 koon.chow@barclays.com

Christian Keller Head of EM Research +44 (0)20 7773 2031 christian.keller@barclays.com

Jim McCormick Head of Asset Allocation Research + 44 (0) 20 7773 7699 jim.mccormick@barclays.com

Michael Pond Head of Inflation-Linked Research +1 212 412 5051 michael.pond@barclays.com

Jose Wynne Head of FX Research +1 212 412 5923 jose.wynne@barclays.com

US

Dean Maki Head of US Economics Research +1 212 526 1731 dean.maki@barclays.com

Helima Croft Head of North American Commodities Research +1 212 526 0764 helima.croft@barclays.com

Barry Knapp Head of US Equity Strategy +1 212 526 5313 barry.knapp@barclays.com

Michael Gavin Head of Asset Allocation for the Americas +1 212 412 5915 michael.gavin@barclays.com

Alejandro Grisanti Co-Head of Latin America FICC Research +1 212 412 5982 alejandro.grisanti@barclays.com

Marcelo Salomon Co-Head of Latin America FICC Research +1 212 412 5717 marcelo.salomon@barclays.com

Rajiv Setia Head of US Rates Research +1 212 412 5507 rajiv.setia@barclays.com

Joseph Abate Fixed Income Strategy +1 212 412 7459 joseph.abate@barclays.com

Aroop Chatterjee Head of FX Quantitative Strategy +1 212 412 5622 aroop.chatterjee@barclays.com

Peter Newland US Economics Research +1 212 526 3153 peter.newland@barclays.com

Anshul Pradhan Fixed Income Strategy +1 212 412 3681 anshul.pradhan@barclays.com

Europe

Laurent Fransolet Head of European FICC Research and European Rates Strategy +44 (0)20 7773 8385 laurent.fransolet@barclays.com

Tim Whittaker Head of European Equity Research +44 (0)20 313 46696 tim.whittaker@barclays.com

Philippe Gudin de Vallerin Head of European Economics Research +33 (0) 1 4458 3264 philippe.gudin@barclays.com

Kevin Norrish Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Commodities Research +44 (0)20 7773 0369 kevin.norrish@barclays.com

Guillermo Felices Head of European Asset Allocation +44 (0)20 355 52533 guillermo.felices@barclays.com

Cagdas Aksu European Rates Strategy +44 (0)20 777 35788 cagdas.aksu@barclays.com

Antonio Garcia Pascual Chief Euro Area Economist +44 (0)20 313 46225 antonio.garciapascual@barclays.com

Moyeen Islam UK Rates Strategy +44 (0)20 7773 4675 moyeen.islam@barclays.com

Dennis Jose European Equity Strategy +44 (0)20 313 43777 dennis.jose@barclays.com

Sreekala Kochugovindan Asset Allocation +44 (0)20 777 32234 sreekala.kochugovindan @barclays.com

Joao Toniato European Equity Strategy +44 (0)20 313 34813 joao.toniato@barclays.com

Marvin Barth Head of European FX Strategy +44 (0)20 313 43355 marvin.barth@barclays.com

Asia Pacific

Jon Scoffin Head of Research, Asia Pacific +65 6308 3217 jon.scoffin@barclays.com

David Fernandez Head of FICC Research, Asia Pacific +65 6308 3518 david.fernandez@barclays.com

Tetsufumi Yamakawa Head of Research, Japan +81 3 4530 1130 tetsufumi.yamakawa @barclays.com

Igor Arsenin Head of Emerging Asia Rates Strategy Research +65 6308 2801 igor.arsenin@barclays.com

Kieran Davies Economist – Australia and New Zealand +61 2 933 46164 kieran.davies@barclays.com

Takashi Hashimoto Head of Japan Equity Research +81 3 4530 2956 takashi.hashimoto@barclays.com

Kyohei Morita Chief Economist, Japan +81 3 4530 1688 kyohei.morita@barclays.com

Yoshio Takahashi Head of Non-Yen Strategy, Japan +81 3 4530 1686 yoshio.takahashi@barclays.com

Rahul Bajoria Economist - India, Malaysia, Thailand +65 6308 3511 rahul.bajoria@barclays.com

Hamish Pepper FX Strategist +65 6308 2220 hamish.pepper@barclays.com

Nick Verdi FX Strategist +65 6308 3093 nick.verdi@barclays.com

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