global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza … · 2015-02-19 · global macroeconomic...
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Crawford School of Public Policy
CAMACentre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza
Miscellaneous PublicationsFebruary 2006
Warwick J McKibbinLowy Institute for International PolicyThe Brookings Institution andCentre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), ANU
Alexandra A. SidorenkoNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANUAustralian Centre for Economic Research on Health (ACERH)
Abstract
This paper explores the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy through a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century. An influenza pandemic would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force to different degrees in different countries due to a rise in mortality and illness; an increase in the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences away from exposed sectors; and a re-evaluation of country risk as investors observe the responses of governments. The paper finds that even a mild pandemic has significant consequences for global economic output. The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8% of GDP (approximately $U330 billion) in lost economic output. As the scale of the pandemic increases, so do the economic costs. A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the “ultra” scenario with over 142.2 million people killed and a GDP loss of $US4.4 trillion. The composition of the slowdown differs sharply across countries with a major shift of global capital from the affected economies to the less affected safe haven economies of North America and Europe.
| T H E A U S T R A L I A N N A T I O N A L U N I V E R S I T Y
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The Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in the Crawford School of Public Policy has been established to build strong links between professional macroeconomists. It provides a forum for quality macroeconomic research and discussion of policy issues between academia, government and the private sector.
The Crawford School of Public Policy is the Australian National University’s public policy school, serving and influencing Australia, Asia and the Pacific through advanced policy research, graduate and executive education, and policy impact.
| T H E A U S T R A L I A N N A T I O N A L U N I V E R S I T Y
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Scenario on severity
Country I death per capita
Labour force
Absentee ratesDirect illness
carers
Labor effectiveness by
sector j
Demand shock for service sector
Cost shock for service sector
Services Output
exposure
Govt quality
Healthresources
Country Risk shock
Diagram 1: Structure of Shocks for a given Country i
Financial exposure
Cost shock for sector i
Demand shock for sector i
ScalingScaling
Scaling
Scaling
Scaling
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Figu
re 1
: Geo
grap
hy In
dica
tor
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.81
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
Index
Inde
x_ge
o_U
S
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Figu
re 2
: Hea
lth P
olic
y In
dica
tor
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.91
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
Index
inde
x_he
alth
_pol
icy
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Figu
re 3
: Mor
talit
y R
ate
Und
er e
ach
scen
ario
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
inde
x_m
ildin
dex_
mod
inde
x_se
vere
inde
x_ul
tra
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Figu
re 4
: Add
ition
al la
bor f
orce
sho
ck d
ue to
Abs
ente
eism
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% adjustment to labor shock
inde
x_si
ckne
ss
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Figu
re 5
: Ser
vice
Sec
tor E
xpos
ure
in P
rodu
ctio
n
0%5%10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
sensitive output relative to total service output
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Figu
re 6
: Gov
erna
nce
Indi
cato
r
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
Index
inde
x_go
vern
ance
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Figu
re 7
: Cou
ntry
Ris
k P
rem
ia w
eigh
ting
rela
tivity
to U
S
0
0.050.
1
0.150.
2
0.250.
3
0.350.
4
0.45
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
Percentage points
inde
x_ris
k2
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Figu
re 8
: Cos
t sho
cks
- Mild
Sce
nario
0.00
0
0.05
0
0.10
0
0.15
0
0.20
0
0.25
0
0.30
0
0.35
0
0.40
0
0.45
0
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 9
: Cos
t sho
cks
- Mod
erat
e Sc
enar
io
0.00
0
0.50
0
1.00
0
1.50
0
2.00
0
2.50
0
3.00
0
3.50
0
4.00
0
4.50
0
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
0: C
ost s
hock
s - S
ever
e Sc
enar
io
0.00
0
2.00
0
4.00
0
6.00
0
8.00
0
10.0
00
12.0
00
14.0
00
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
1: C
ost s
hock
s - U
ltra
Scen
ario
0.00
0
5.00
0
10.0
00
15.0
00
20.0
00
25.0
00
30.0
00
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
2: D
eman
d sh
ocks
- M
ild S
cena
rio
-0.3
50
-0.3
00
-0.2
50
-0.2
00
-0.1
50
-0.1
00
-0.0
50
0.00
0A
US
LDC
EE
BC
AN
CH
IE
UR
GB
RH
ON
IND
INO
JPN
KO
RO
PC
MA
LN
ZLP
HI
SN
GTA
ITH
AU
SA
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
3: D
eman
d sh
ocks
- M
oder
ate
Scen
ario
-3.5
00
-3.0
00
-2.5
00
-2.0
00
-1.5
00
-1.0
00
-0.5
00
0.00
0A
US
LDC
EE
BC
AN
CH
IE
UR
GB
RH
ON
IND
INO
JPN
KO
RO
PC
MA
LN
ZLP
HI
SN
GTA
ITH
AU
SA
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
4 D
eman
d sh
ocks
- Se
vere
Sce
nario
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.00.0
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
5 D
eman
d sh
ocks
- U
ltra
Scen
ario
-16.
0
-14.
0
-12.
0
-10.
0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.00.0
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
% change
ener
gym
inin
gag
ricul
ture
dura
ble
man
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
gse
rvic
es
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Figu
re 1
6: R
isk
Prem
ia a
djus
ted
by S
cena
rio
012345678910
AU
SLD
CE
EB
CA
NC
HI
EU
RG
BR
HO
NIN
DIN
OJP
NK
OR
OP
CM
AL
NZL
PH
IS
NG
TAI
THA
US
A
percentage points
Mild
Mod
erat
eS
ever
eU
ltra
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Figure 17: Change in GDP in the Moderate Scenario
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% d
evia
tion
from
bas
e
USAJapanEuropeMalaysiaPhilippinesHong Kong
Figure 18:Change in GDP Growth in the Moderate Scenario
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% d
evia
tion
from
bas
e
USAJapanEuropeMalaysiaPhilippinesHong Kong
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Tabl
e 1:
Dea
ths
in e
ach
regi
on in
200
6 (T
hous
ands
)M
ildM
oder
ate
Seve
reU
ltra
num
ber
%po
pula
tion
num
ber
%po
pula
tion
num
ber
%po
pula
tion
num
ber
%po
pula
tion
US
A20
.20.
007
201.
90.
0710
09.3
0.35
2018
.60.
70Ja
pan
21.5
0.01
721
4.6
0.17
1073
.10.
8421
46.2
1.68
UK
7.6
0.01
376
.00.
1338
0.0
0.64
759.
91.
28E
urop
e56
.50.
010
565.
50.
1028
27.4
0.50
5654
.91.
00C
anad
a3.
10.
010
30.9
0.10
154.
50.
4930
9.1
0.99
Aus
tralia
2.1
0.01
121
.40.
1110
7.1
0.54
214.
21.
09N
ew Z
eala
nd0.
50.
013
5.2
0.13
25.8
0.65
51.5
1.31
Indo
nesi
a11
4.3
0.05
411
42.5
0.54
5712
.62.
7011
425.
15.
39M
alay
sia
10.9
0.04
510
8.9
0.45
544.
52.
2410
89.1
4.48
Phi
lippi
nes
41.5
0.05
241
5.5
0.52
2077
.52.
6041
55.0
5.20
Sin
gapo
re1.
40.
035
14.4
0.35
72.0
1.73
144.
13.
46Th
aila
nd16
.20.
026
162.
10.
2681
0.3
1.32
1620
.52.
63C
hina
284.
90.
022
2848
.60.
2214
242.
81.
1128
485.
62.
22In
dia
242.
40.
023
2423
.60.
2312
118.
11.
1624
236.
12.
31Ta
iwan
5.6
0.02
555
.90.
2527
9.4
1.24
558.
82.
48K
orea
11.8
0.02
511
7.5
0.25
587.
61.
2311
75.2
2.47
Hon
g K
ong
1.6
0.02
416
.40.
2482
.01.
2116
3.9
2.42
LDC
s33
0.9
0.02
233
08.6
0.22
1654
3.1
1.08
3308
6.2
2.15
EE
FSU
67.1
0.01
367
0.7
0.13
3353
.70.
6667
07.3
1.32
OP
EC
181.
60.
035
1816
.30.
3590
81.5
1.77
1816
3.1
3.54
Tota
l14
21.6
0.02
214
216.
50.
2271
082.
31.
1014
2164
.52.
21
Sou
rce:
Aut
hors
Cal
cula
tions
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Tabl
e 2:
Ben
chm
ark
Cos
t and
Dem
and
Sho
cks Mild
Mod
erat
eSe
vere
Ultr
aC
osts
en
ergy
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
m
inin
g1.
51.
50.
50.
5
agric
ultu
re2.
02.
01.
01.
0
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
g2.
02.
01.
01.
0
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
g2.
02.
01.
01.
0
serv
ices
5.0
5.0
3.0
3.0
Dem
and
en
ergy
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
m
inin
g0.
00.
00.
00.
0
agric
ultu
re1.
21.
20.
60.
6
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
g1.
21.
20.
60.
6
non-
dura
ble
man
ufac
turin
g1.
21.
20.
60.
6
serv
ices
3.6
3.6
1.8
1.8
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Table 3: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Mild ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk
USA -0.58 -0.50 -0.07 -0.01 0.00Japan -1.00 -0.77 -0.23 -0.01 0.00UK -0.72 -0.56 -0.14 -0.02 0.00Europe -0.72 -0.60 -0.12 0.00 0.00Canada -0.69 -0.61 -0.07 0.00 0.00Australia -0.80 -0.64 -0.15 -0.01 0.00New Zealand -1.38 -1.13 -0.26 0.00 0.00Indonesia -0.88 -0.60 -0.24 -0.01 -0.02Malaysia -0.78 -0.52 -0.26 0.00 0.00Philippines -1.54 -0.98 -0.49 -0.02 -0.05Singapore -0.86 -0.52 -0.34 0.00 0.00Thailand -0.45 -0.27 -0.17 0.00 -0.01China -0.70 -0.56 -0.13 0.00 0.00India -0.63 -0.49 -0.13 0.00 -0.01Taiwan -0.76 -0.56 -0.20 -0.01 0.00Korea -0.85 -0.61 -0.22 0.00 -0.01Hong Kong -1.20 -0.45 -0.72 0.00 -0.03LDCs -0.59 -0.41 -0.14 -0.01 -0.02EEFSU -0.56 -0.48 -0.07 0.00 0.00OPEC -0.68 -0.48 -0.18 -0.01 -0.01Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
Table 4: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Moderate ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk
USA -1.38 -0.52 -0.70 -0.16 0.01Japan -3.34 -0.85 -2.26 -0.22 -0.01UK -2.38 -0.60 -1.43 -0.35 -0.01Europe -1.88 -0.64 -1.19 -0.05 0.00Canada -1.50 -0.65 -0.73 -0.12 -0.01Australia -2.35 -0.68 -1.52 -0.15 0.00New Zealand -3.95 -1.21 -2.59 -0.13 -0.02Indonesia -3.59 -0.79 -2.45 -0.20 -0.17Malaysia -3.42 -0.63 -2.61 -0.13 -0.04Philippines -7.26 -1.25 -4.94 -0.55 -0.52Singapore -4.38 -0.62 -3.40 -0.39 0.03Thailand -2.10 -0.32 -1.68 -0.05 -0.05China -2.15 -0.64 -1.33 -0.19 0.01India -2.06 -0.55 -1.30 -0.14 -0.06Taiwan -2.86 -0.63 -1.97 -0.24 -0.01Korea -3.15 -0.70 -2.19 -0.18 -0.08Hong Kong -9.29 -0.54 -7.16 -1.24 -0.34LDCs -2.37 -0.45 -1.43 -0.28 -0.20EEFSU -1.35 -0.51 -0.75 -0.06 -0.03OPEC -2.77 -0.57 -1.78 -0.30 -0.12Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Table 5: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Severe ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk
USA -3.00 -0.62 -2.03 -0.40 0.05Japan -8.26 -1.20 -6.47 -0.56 -0.04UK -5.83 -0.78 -4.15 -0.87 -0.03Europe -4.31 -0.82 -3.39 -0.13 0.02Canada -3.14 -0.78 -2.03 -0.30 -0.03Australia -5.58 -0.86 -4.36 -0.39 0.02New Zealand -9.39 -1.59 -7.39 -0.32 -0.08Indonesia -9.22 -1.59 -6.31 -0.49 -0.83Malaysia -8.40 -1.16 -6.70 -0.33 -0.22Philippines -19.27 -2.44 -12.86 -1.39 -2.59Singapore -11.06 -1.03 -9.21 -0.97 0.14Thailand -5.28 -0.52 -4.37 -0.13 -0.26China -4.76 -0.98 -3.34 -0.48 0.03India -4.90 -0.84 -3.40 -0.36 -0.30Taiwan -7.14 -0.98 -5.50 -0.59 -0.07Korea -7.82 -1.08 -5.86 -0.45 -0.42Hong Kong -26.85 -0.91 -21.11 -3.11 -1.71LDCs -6.30 -0.63 -3.96 -0.71 -1.00EEFSU -2.90 -0.66 -1.94 -0.16 -0.14OPEC -7.03 -0.96 -4.73 -0.74 -0.60Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
Table 6: GDP Decomposition by Shock for Ultra ScenarioTotal Labor Force Costs Demand Risk
USA -5.50 -0.74 -4.06 -0.80 0.11Japan -15.77 -1.63 -12.95 -1.11 -0.07UK -11.11 -1.01 -8.30 -1.75 -0.05Europe -8.03 -1.04 -6.79 -0.25 0.05Canada -5.68 -0.96 -4.06 -0.61 -0.06Australia -10.58 -1.09 -8.75 -0.78 0.05New Zealand -17.68 -2.06 -14.79 -0.65 -0.17Indonesia -17.97 -2.60 -12.70 -1.01 -1.66Malaysia -16.35 -1.81 -13.44 -0.66 -0.44Philippines -37.79 -3.94 -25.87 -2.81 -5.17Singapore -21.65 -1.54 -18.45 -1.95 0.28Thailand -10.31 -0.78 -8.75 -0.26 -0.53China -9.06 -1.41 -6.74 -0.98 0.07India -9.34 -1.20 -6.81 -0.73 -0.60Taiwan -13.76 -1.42 -11.01 -1.18 -0.15Korea -15.06 -1.57 -11.76 -0.91 -0.83Hong Kong -53.51 -1.39 -42.43 -6.26 -3.43LDCs -12.24 -0.85 -7.95 -1.43 -2.01EEFSU -5.37 -0.85 -3.91 -0.33 -0.28OPEC -13.65 -1.46 -9.50 -1.50 -1.20Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Table 7: 2006 percentage GDP loss by regionMild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA -0.6 -1.4 -3.0 -5.5Japan -1.0 -3.3 -8.3 -15.8UK -0.7 -2.4 -5.8 -11.1Europe -0.7 -1.9 -4.3 -8.0Canada -0.7 -1.5 -3.1 -5.7Australia -0.8 -2.4 -5.6 -10.6New Zealand -1.4 -4.0 -9.4 -17.7Indonesia -0.9 -3.6 -9.2 -18.0Malaysia -0.8 -3.4 -8.4 -16.3Philippines -1.5 -7.3 -19.3 -37.8Singapore -0.9 -4.4 -11.1 -21.7Thailand -0.4 -2.1 -5.3 -10.3China -0.7 -2.1 -4.8 -9.1India -0.6 -2.1 -4.9 -9.3Taiwan -0.8 -2.9 -7.1 -13.8Korea -0.8 -3.2 -7.8 -15.1Hong Kong -1.2 -9.3 -26.8 -53.5LDCs -0.6 -2.4 -6.3 -12.2EEFSU -0.6 -1.4 -2.9 -5.4OPEC -0.7 -2.8 -7.0 -13.6Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
Table 8: Inflation rate change in percentage points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA 0.58 0.77 1.37 2.22Japan 0.61 1.32 3.20 5.90UK 0.61 1.07 2.51 4.50Europe 0.46 0.77 1.62 2.83Canada 0.54 0.70 1.18 1.86Australia 0.46 0.83 1.83 3.28New Zealand 0.10 -0.03 0.04 -0.01Indonesia 0.30 0.51 1.04 1.78Malaysia 0.12 -0.23 -0.84 -1.80Philippines 0.04 -0.73 -2.17 -4.45Singapore 0.36 0.40 0.89 1.49Thailand 0.20 0.27 0.40 0.64China 0.51 0.79 1.34 2.23India 0.35 0.50 0.82 1.33Taiwan 0.43 0.84 2.41 4.47Korea 0.44 0.85 1.84 3.33Hong Kong 0.04 -3.84 -11.27 -22.83LDCs 0.41 0.33 -0.33 -1.05EEFSU 0.48 0.74 1.28 2.14OPEC 0.43 0.85 1.98 3.61Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Table 9: 10 Year Bond rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA -1 -4 -8 -16Japan -2 -5 -10 -19UK -1 -7 -14 -27Europe -1 -4 -7 -14Canada -2 -5 -10 -18Australia -2 -5 -12 -22New Zealand -5 -14 -31 -58Indonesia -2 -7 -6 -11Malaysia -3 -12 -23 -43Philippines -5 -18 -36 -70Singapore -4 -18 -44 -85Thailand -1 -4 -4 -7China -1 -6 -11 -22India -1 -5 -5 -10Taiwan -3 -10 -20 -37Korea -2 -5 -5 -8Hong Kong 0 10 59 118LDCs 0 5 38 76EEFSU -1 -2 -1 -1OPEC -1 -4 -2 -3Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
Table 10: Short interest rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA 1 -18 -50 -101Japan 0 -18 -38 -78UK -2 -35 -83 -165Europe -1 -16 -37 -74Canada -2 -18 -47 -93Australia -2 -24 -59 -117New Zealand -27 -85 -190 -358Indonesia -5 -32 -12 -23Malaysia -7 -54 -109 -215Philippines -19 -103 -180 -352Singapore -11 -99 -246 -489Thailand -1 -17 -10 -21China -1 -25 -57 -116India -2 -19 -16 -30Taiwan -7 -47 -91 -177Korea 0 -14 -1 -2Hong Kong 10 73 407 812LDCs 7 44 260 519EEFSU 1 -6 4 7OPEC 0 -16 10 19Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Table 11: Short real interest rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA 20 26 38 59Japan 25 61 146 273UK 19 37 85 156Europe 21 36 71 125Canada 26 38 59 95Australia 25 45 94 169New Zealand 8 0 5 3Indonesia 25 67 199 379Malaysia 28 67 158 297Philippines 19 35 149 284Singapore 28 66 130 239Thailand 18 45 124 235China 29 60 107 192India 24 51 124 230Taiwan 25 56 160 302Korea 28 76 197 373Hong Kong 58 307 1044 2074LDCs 30 94 318 616EEFSU 22 42 89 160OPEC 26 75 214 413Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
Table 12 Long real interest rate change in basis points in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA 6 7 11 16Japan 6 13 30 55UK 7 11 24 43Europe 4 7 14 23Canada 5 7 10 15Australia 5 8 16 28New Zealand 0 -2 -5 -10Indonesia 3 9 25 47Malaysia 2 6 15 28Philippines 1 0 5 9Singapore 3 9 17 32Thailand 2 4 11 20China 5 9 15 25India 3 6 14 25Taiwan 4 8 23 43Korea 4 11 26 49Hong Kong 7 41 140 268LDCs 5 13 41 77EEFSU 5 8 15 26OPEC 5 12 31 59Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Table 13: Nominal exchange rate ($US per currency) %change in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Japan -0.08 -0.52 -2.28 -4.53UK -0.03 -0.47 -1.74 -3.49Europe -0.06 -0.22 -1.00 -1.96Canada -0.14 -0.22 -0.64 -1.14Australia -0.09 -0.38 -1.44 -2.82New Zealand -0.46 -1.39 -4.37 -8.39Indonesia -0.22 -1.33 -4.92 -9.80Malaysia -0.24 -1.18 -3.60 -7.08Philippines -0.46 -2.60 -8.78 -17.39Singapore -0.32 -1.61 -4.47 -8.77Thailand -0.05 -0.55 -2.29 -4.59China -0.06 -0.34 -1.10 -2.20India -0.10 -0.60 -2.34 -4.65Taiwan -0.28 -1.33 -4.77 -9.39Korea -0.10 -0.62 -2.38 -4.71Hong Kong 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00LDCs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00EEFSU -0.01 -0.15 -0.90 -1.82OPEC -0.09 -0.79 -3.09 -6.19Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A$US per local currency - negative is a depreciation of the local currency
Table 14: Current Account Change (%gdp) in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA 0.00 -0.04 -0.20 -0.40Japan 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.12UK 0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.05Europe -0.01 -0.07 -0.24 -0.47Canada -0.08 -0.17 -0.47 -0.86Australia -0.03 -0.13 -0.39 -0.75New Zealand 0.32 0.77 1.96 3.67Indonesia 0.00 0.20 0.95 1.95Malaysia 0.02 0.09 0.41 0.80Philippines 0.40 2.08 6.60 13.00Singapore 0.14 0.49 0.74 1.36Thailand 0.09 0.27 0.96 1.84China -0.01 -0.08 -0.27 -0.54India -0.01 0.01 0.11 0.24Taiwan 0.01 0.17 0.68 1.37Korea 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.34Hong Kong -0.20 0.04 0.49 1.17LDCs -0.01 0.12 0.57 1.16EEFSU 0.03 0.06 0.15 0.28OPEC 0.02 0.05 0.42 0.83Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Table 15:Equity Price (Manufacturing) change in percent in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA -0.48 -0.52 -0.51 -0.56Japan -0.49 -1.01 -2.34 -4.28UK -0.43 -0.58 -1.03 -1.69Europe -0.43 -0.62 -1.11 -1.83Canada -0.43 -0.52 -0.64 -0.90Australia -0.33 -0.50 -0.89 -1.51New Zealand -0.18 -0.17 -0.49 -0.85Indonesia -0.32 -0.93 -3.07 -6.02Malaysia -0.54 -1.36 -3.43 -6.47Philippines -0.39 -1.39 -5.03 -9.83Singapore -0.49 -0.91 -1.56 -2.74Thailand -0.35 -1.04 -2.95 -5.66China -0.52 -1.04 -1.85 -3.34India -0.32 -0.74 -1.89 -3.55Taiwan -0.43 -1.04 -3.08 -5.84Korea -0.51 -1.32 -3.44 -6.53Hong Kong -1.07 -4.38 -15.29 -30.34LDCs -0.38 -1.07 -3.55 -6.85EEFSU -0.53 -0.88 -1.77 -3.10OPEC -0.47 -1.22 -3.57 -6.85Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
Table 16:Export change in percent in 2006Mild Moderate Severe Ultra
USA -0.99 -1.97 -5.19 -9.50Japan -1.04 -2.57 -5.64 -10.45UK -1.04 -1.98 -4.70 -8.51Europe -0.63 -1.48 -3.58 -6.64Canada -0.74 -1.21 -2.47 -4.25Australia -0.69 -1.92 -4.92 -9.26New Zealand -0.42 -1.06 -3.03 -5.74Indonesia -0.28 -0.77 0.09 0.46Malaysia -0.33 -1.41 -3.23 -6.28Philippines -0.18 -1.17 -5.13 -10.17Singapore -0.70 -2.67 -6.87 -13.33Thailand -0.01 -0.31 -0.17 -0.36China -0.35 -1.04 -2.58 -4.93India -0.15 -0.44 -0.42 -0.71Taiwan -0.42 -0.87 -1.36 -2.37Korea -0.51 -1.58 -3.40 -6.44Hong Kong -0.58 -3.27 -9.75 -19.52LDCs -0.41 -0.95 -1.56 -2.80EEFSU -0.57 -1.23 -2.38 -4.26OPEC -0.45 -1.49 -2.92 -5.55Source: APG-Cubed model version 63A
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Tabl
e 17
: Sen
sitiv
ity o
f Mod
erat
e sc
enar
io to
10*
risk
shoc
kG
DP
Infla
tion
10 y
ear B
ond
shor
t rat
eex
chan
ge ra
tem
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
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ive
mod
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tern
ativ
em
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US
A-1
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80.
4-4
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8-4
30
0Ja
pan
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1.3
1.5
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.41.
11.
0-7
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5-4
2-0
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urop
e-1
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80.
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anad
a-1
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70.
3-5
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8-4
6-0
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ustra
lia-2
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80.
6-5
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nd-4
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00.
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done
sia
-3.6
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0.5
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168
-1.3
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Mal
aysi
a-3
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hilip
pine
s-7
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1.9
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Sin
gapo
re-4
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4-0
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40-1
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aila
nd-2
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3-0
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790
-0.6
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Chi
na-2
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.10.
80.
1-6
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5-2
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dia
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0.5
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-19
74-0
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iwan
-2.9
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0.8
1.8
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716
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ea-3
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80.
3-5
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491
-0.6
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Hon
g K
ong
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4-3
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2.3
1013
073
870
0.0
0.0
LDC
s-2
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3-3
.75
8644
577
0.0
0.0
EE
FSU
-1.4
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0.7
0.3
-26
-654
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OP
EC
-2.8
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0.9
0.7
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149
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rce:
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G-C
ubed
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el v
ersi
on 6
3A
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Tabl
e 18
: Sen
sitiv
ity o
f Mod
erat
e sc
enar
io to
mor
e su
stai
ned
risk
shoc
kG
DP
Infla
tion
10 y
ear B
ond
shor
t rat
eex
chan
ge ra
tem
oder
ate
alte
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ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
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ive
mod
erat
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tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
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ive
US
A-1
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80.
7-4
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8-4
30
0Ja
pan
-3.3
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1.3
1.4
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K-2
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.41.
11.
1-7
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5-4
2-0
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urop
e-1
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80.
7-4
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6-3
0-0
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anad
a-1
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.50.
70.
6-5
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8-4
6-0
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ustra
lia-2
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80.
8-5
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4-3
8-0
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ew Z
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00.
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4-8
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done
sia
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0.5
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168
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Mal
aysi
a-3
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2-3
-54
4-1
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hilip
pine
s-7
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88
-103
123
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Sin
gapo
re-4
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40.
3-1
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9-1
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aila
nd-2
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3-0
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11-1
790
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Chi
na-2
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80.
5-6
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5-2
2-0
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dia
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0.5
0.0
-59
-19
74-0
.6-1
.4Ta
iwan
-2.9
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0.8
1.1
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716
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Kor
ea-3
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80.
4-5
10-1
491
-0.6
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Hon
g K
ong
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0-3
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130
7387
00.
00.
0LD
Cs
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0.3
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586
4457
70.
00.
0E
EFS
U-1
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70.
4-2
6-6
54-0
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PE
C-2
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90.
4-4
18-1
614
9-0
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ourc
e: A
PG
-Cub
ed m
odel
ver
sion
63A
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Tabl
e 19
: Sen
sitiv
ity o
f Mod
erat
e sc
enar
io to
5 ti
mes
larg
er d
eman
d sw
itch
GD
PIn
flatio
n10
yea
r Bon
dsh
ort r
ate
exch
ange
rate
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
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ive
mod
erat
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tern
ativ
eU
SA
-1.4
-2.0
0.8
-0.9
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6-1
8-2
90
0Ja
pan
-3.3
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1.3
-0.5
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5-1
8-1
4-0
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K-2
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.81.
1-1
.6-7
-30
-35
-38
-0.5
-1.4
Eur
ope
-1.9
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0.8
-0.9
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2-1
6-2
2-0
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.2C
anad
a-1
.5-2
.00.
7-0
.6-5
-11
-18
-31
-0.2
-0.5
Aus
tralia
-2.4
-3.0
0.8
-0.9
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5-2
4-3
0-0
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ew Z
eala
nd-4
.0-4
.50.
0-1
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4-2
0-8
5-8
4-1
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done
sia
-3.6
-4.4
0.5
-1.7
-7-2
1-3
257
-1.3
-3.9
Mal
aysi
a-3
.4-3
.9-0
.2-2
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2-2
2-5
4-2
8-1
.2-2
.3P
hilip
pine
s-7
.3-9
.5-0
.7-3
.8-1
8-3
4-1
03-3
-2.6
-4.6
Sin
gapo
re-4
.4-5
.90.
4-3
.1-1
8-3
8-9
9-1
17-1
.6-3
.2Th
aila
nd-2
.1-2
.30.
3-1
.2-4
-14
-17
31-0
.6-3
.0C
hina
-2.1
-2.9
0.8
-1.1
-6-1
8-2
5-2
4-0
.3-0
.9In
dia
-2.1
-2.6
0.5
-1.1
-5-1
6-1
922
-0.6
-1.7
Taiw
an-2
.9-3
.80.
8-1
.9-1
0-2
4-4
7-1
9-1
.3-2
.9K
orea
-3.2
-3.9
0.8
-1.2
-5-1
6-1
433
-0.6
-2.7
Hon
g K
ong
-9.3
-14.
3-3
.8-2
1.0
10-2
7342
70.
0-0
.6LD
Cs
-2.4
-3.5
0.3
-2.8
5-6
4428
10.
00.
0E
EFS
U-1
.4-1
.60.
7-0
.4-2
-11
-621
-0.2
-0.9
OP
EC
-2.8
-4.0
0.9
-1.7
-4-2
1-1
657
-0.8
-1.9
Sou
rce:
AP
G-C
ubed
mod
el v
ersi
on 6
3A
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Tabl
e 20
: Mod
erat
e S
cena
rio w
ith n
o ad
ditio
nal c
ost s
hock
sG
DP
Infla
tion
10 y
ear B
ond
shor
t rat
eex
chan
ge ra
tem
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
US
A-1
.4-0
.70.
80.
1-4
-4-1
8-2
50
0Ja
pan
-3.3
-1.1
1.3
0.1
-5-3
-18
-21
-0.5
-0.4
UK
-2.4
-1.0
1.1
-0.1
-7-7
-35
-44
-0.5
-0.5
Eur
ope
-1.9
-0.7
0.8
0.0
-4-3
-16
-20
-0.2
-0.2
Can
ada
-1.5
-0.8
0.7
0.2
-5-4
-18
-21
-0.2
-0.1
Aus
tralia
-2.4
-0.8
0.8
0.0
-5-4
-24
-25
-0.4
-0.2
New
Zea
land
-4.0
-1.4
0.0
-0.2
-14
-7-8
5-4
0-1
.4-0
.7In
done
sia
-3.6
-1.1
0.5
-0.3
-7-2
-32
-11
-1.3
-0.8
Mal
aysi
a-3
.4-0
.8-0
.2-0
.5-1
2-4
-54
-23
-1.2
-0.4
Phi
lippi
nes
-7.3
-2.3
-0.7
-0.8
-18
-5-1
03-2
6-2
.6-1
.3S
inga
pore
-4.4
-1.0
0.4
-0.6
-18
-8-9
9-5
2-1
.6-0
.6Th
aila
nd-2
.1-0
.40.
3-0
.3-4
-1-1
7-9
-0.6
-0.3
Chi
na-2
.1-0
.80.
80.
0-6
-4-2
5-2
6-0
.3-0
.2In
dia
-2.1
-0.8
0.5
-0.1
-5-2
-19
-15
-0.6
-0.4
Taiw
an-2
.9-0
.90.
8-0
.1-1
0-5
-47
-28
-1.3
-0.8
Kor
ea-3
.2-1
.00.
8-0
.1-5
-2-1
4-1
4-0
.6-0
.4H
ong
Kon
g-9
.3-2
.1-3
.8-5
.210
1073
660.
00.
0LD
Cs
-2.4
-0.9
0.3
-0.8
56
4437
0.0
0.0
EE
FSU
-1.4
-0.6
0.7
0.1
-2-2
-6-1
1-0
.2-0
.1O
PE
C-2
.8-1
.00.
9-0
.2-4
-2-1
6-1
3-0
.8-0
.6S
ourc
e: A
PG
-Cub
ed m
odel
ver
sion
63A
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Tabl
e 21
: Mild
Sce
nario
with
35%
rath
er th
an 3
0% a
ttack
rate
GD
PIn
flatio
n10
yea
r Bon
dsh
ort r
ate
exch
ange
rate
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
eU
SA
-0.6
-0.7
0.6
0.7
-1-1
11
00
Japa
n-1
.0-1
.10.
60.
7-2
-20
1-0
.1-0
.1U
K-0
.7-0
.80.
60.
7-1
-1-2
-20.
00.
0E
urop
e-0
.7-0
.80.
50.
5-1
-2-1
-1-0
.1-0
.1C
anad
a-0
.7-0
.80.
50.
6-2
-3-2
-2-0
.1-0
.2A
ustra
lia-0
.8-0
.90.
50.
5-2
-2-2
-2-0
.1-0
.1N
ew Z
eala
nd-1
.4-1
.60.
10.
1-5
-6-2
7-3
1-0
.5-0
.5In
done
sia
-0.9
-1.0
0.3
0.3
-2-2
-5-6
-0.2
-0.2
Mal
aysi
a-0
.8-0
.90.
10.
1-3
-3-7
-7-0
.2-0
.3P
hilip
pine
s-1
.5-1
.70.
00.
1-5
-5-1
9-2
1-0
.5-0
.5S
inga
pore
-0.9
-1.0
0.4
0.4
-4-5
-11
-12
-0.3
-0.4
Thai
land
-0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.2
-1-1
-1-1
0.0
0.0
Chi
na-0
.7-0
.80.
50.
6-1
-2-1
-1-0
.1-0
.1In
dia
-0.6
-0.7
0.3
0.4
-1-2
-2-2
-0.1
-0.1
Taiw
an-0
.8-0
.90.
40.
5-3
-3-7
-8-0
.3-0
.3K
orea
-0.8
-0.9
0.4
0.5
-2-2
00
-0.1
-0.1
Hon
g K
ong
-1.2
-1.3
0.0
0.0
00
1010
0.0
0.0
LDC
s-0
.6-0
.70.
40.
50
07
70.
00.
0E
EFS
U-0
.6-0
.60.
50.
5-1
-11
10.
00.
0O
PE
C-0
.7-0
.80.
40.
5-1
-10
0-0
.1-0
.1S
ourc
e: A
PG
-Cub
ed m
odel
ver
sion
63A
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Tabl
e 22
: Mod
erat
e S
cena
rio w
ith F
isca
l res
pons
e 1.
5% o
f GD
P (o
n av
erag
e) s
cale
d by
mor
talit
y ra
tesp
endi
ngG
DP
Infla
tion
10 y
ear B
ond
shor
t rat
eex
chan
ge ra
te%
GD
Pm
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
mod
erat
eal
tern
ativ
em
oder
ate
alte
rnat
ive
US
A0.
21-1
.4-1
.30.
81.
0-4
-2-1
80
00
Japa
n0.
51-3
.3-3
.31.
31.
6-5
-3-1
85
-0.5
-0.5
UK
0.38
-2.4
-2.3
1.1
1.4
-7-3
-35
-7-0
.5-0
.3E
urop
e0.
30-1
.9-1
.90.
81.
1-4
-2-1
64
-0.2
-0.2
Can
ada
0.30
-1.5
-1.4
0.7
1.0
-5-3
-18
4-0
.2-0
.2A
ustra
lia0.
33-2
.4-2
.40.
81.
1-5
-3-2
4-3
-0.4
-0.4
New
Zea
land
0.39
-4.0
-3.8
0.0
0.3
-14
-12
-85
-59
-1.4
-1.4
Indo
nesi
a1.
62-3
.6-3
.40.
51.
5-7
-1-3
220
-1.3
-1.0
Mal
aysi
a1.
34-3
.4-3
.3-0
.20.
4-1
2-8
-54
-21
-1.2
-1.1
Phi
lippi
nes
1.56
-7.3
-6.8
-0.7
0.1
-18
-14
-103
-53
-2.6
-2.4
Sin
gapo
re1.
04-4
.4-4
.30.
40.
9-1
8-1
5-9
9-6
3-1
.6-1
.5Th
aila
nd0.
79-2
.1-2
.20.
30.
8-4
-1-1
79
-0.6
-0.4
Chi
na0.
67-2
.1-2
.00.
81.
3-6
-2-2
55
-0.3
-0.2
Indi
a0.
69-2
.1-2
.00.
51.
1-5
-1-1
912
-0.6
-0.5
Taiw
an0.
74-2
.9-2
.80.
81.
3-1
0-7
-47
-13
-1.3
-1.2
Kor
ea0.
74-3
.2-3
.10.
81.
3-5
-2-1
413
-0.6
-0.5
Hon
g K
ong
0.72
-9.3
-9.1
-3.8
-3.2
1012
7391
0.0
0.0
LDC
s0.
65-2
.4-2
.20.
31.
15
744
620.
00.
0E
EFS
U0.
40-1
.4-1
.30.
71.
1-2
0-6
16-0
.2-0
.1O
PE
C1.
06-2
.8-2
.40.
91.
6-4
1-1
624
-0.8
-0.5
Sou
rce:
AP
G-C
ubed
mod
el v
ersi
on 6
3A
![Page 74: Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza … · 2015-02-19 · Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza Miscellaneous Publications February 2006 Warwick](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042102/5e7eee11fed4d03b9a7ae5a0/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Tabl
e 23
: GD
P C
onse
quen
ces
of H
isto
rical
Influ
enza
Pan
dem
ics
Span
ish
Influ
enza
191
8-19
19G
DP
Gro
wth
rate
, %19
08-1
913
1914
1914
-191
819
1919
19 G
DP
(loss
), %
Ave
rage
Ann
ual
Ave
rage
Ann
ual
Ann
ual
AU
SA
ustra
lia5.
16-7
.70
0.89
-1.8
4-2
.73
CA
NC
anad
a8.
69-6
.70
3.54
-11.
14-1
4.68
GB
RG
reat
Brit
ain
2.88
1.00
3.02
-13.
89-1
6.91
JPN
Japa
n2.
52-3
.00
5.56
7.94
2.38
US
AU
nite
d S
tate
s5.
48-7
.70
6.09
-5.2
2-1
1.32
Asi
an In
fluen
za 1
957-
58G
DP
Gro
wth
rate
, %19
53-5
719
5819
58 G
DP
(loss
), %
Ave
rage
Ann
ual
Ann
ual
AU
SA
ustra
lia4.
384.
800.
43C
AN
Can
ada
5.28
1.79
-3.4
9G
BR
Gre
at B
ritai
n3.
06-0
.21
-3.2
7JP
NJa
pan
8.43
5.83
-2.6
0U
SA
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
2.62
-0.4
9-3
.12
Sou
rce:
Mad
diso
n (1
995)
Tab
le B
-10a
pg
148-
51 a
nd o
wn
calc
ulat
ions
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