global megatrends and the future of urban logistics
TRANSCRIPT
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Agenda
Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future Influencing Urban LogisticsUrban Logistics Business Models of the FutureMacro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies
Introduction and Definition of Urban Logistics
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African Mega Trends
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urbanisation
Social Trends Bricks and Clicks
Connecting the Unconnected
New Business Models Future Infrastructure
Smart is the new green
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What is Urban Logistics?
Transportation & Distribution ActivitiesWarehousing Activities Value-Added Activities
Urban Logistics offers unique tailor-made solutions for the transport of goods in cities by consolidating & rationalizing the existing logistics platforms & creating innovative solutions for the future through the use of information and communication technologies
In-Bound Transportation
Outbound Transportation
Storage
Inventory Management
Planning / Marketing
Other Optimisation Techniques
Examples of typical urban logistics activities
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Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics IndustryUrbanisation Connectivity and Convergence Bricks & Clicks Future Infrastructure Development
1 2 3 4
By 2025, 3 out of 5 people will live in cities globallyBy 2025, each person will have a minimum of five connected devices
By 2025, 20% of retail will happen through online channelsBy 2025, globally over $800 billion will be spent on high speed rail projects.What does this mean for Urban Logistics?
500 million deliveries per person per day to cities‘On-the-fly’ deliveries will have to made anywhere, anyhow, faster and quicker
Demand for urban parcel deliveries will increase – shipments to become smaller and frequent
An fuel and carbon efficient alternative to road and air transport and muti-modality.
Top Mega Trends in Africa
Source: Frost & Sullivan
3 Mega Cities by 2025
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8 Mega Corridors by 2025
70 Satellite Towns by 20254 Mega Regions by 2025
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Mega Trend 1 : UrbanisationMega Cities in Africa: Engines of Economic Growth
> 75% Urbanization rate by 2025
Johannesburg10 Million
(2025)
Luanda8.9 Million
(2025)
Kinshasa14.5 Million
(2025)
Lagos18.8 Million
(2025)
Cairo14.7 Million
(2025)
Cities >6 million population by 2025
Mega Cities
Nairobi7 Million
(2025)
Alexandria6.2 Million
(2025)
Khartoum7.1 Million
(2025) Abidjan 7 Million
(2025)
Dar es Salaam7.2 Million
(2025)164.1
35.2
101.0
253.2
47.9
124.6
79.5
12.1
57.724.5
47.3
103.0
21.6
87.6
5.819.5
30.548.4
GDP (Nominal) ($ Billion) in 2014
GDP (Nominal) ($ Billion) by 2025
Mega Cities, City –level GDP and Population, Africa, 2014-2025
Mega City is defined as a city with population of over 8 million
31.7
68.4
Source: Business Insider; UN population Database, 2014 Revision; African Development Bank; Frost & Sullivan
Mega Trend 1 : UrbanisationMega Corridors: Reconfiguring Africa’s Space and Economy
Source: UN-Habitat, 2014; Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Combined population >18.0 million
Combined GDP of $127,592,000.
North-South Corridor
The Greater Ibadan Lagos Accra
(GILA) Corridor
The North Delta Region
Combined Population: 533.0 Million
Combined GDP of $833.00 billion or 58% of Africa’s GDP
More than 50% of National GDP
Abidjan
Ouagadougou
Ibadan
Accra
Luanda
Kinshasa
Cape Town
Durban
Johannesburg
Dar es Salaam
Nairobi
Addis Ababa
A
Future Corridor Development
1,000 km Abidjan-Ouagadougou Corridor
Trans-Cunene Corridor between DRC with SA through Angola and Namibia.
Kampala-Nairobi-Mombasa urban corridor (900 km )
A
B
B
C
C
a
Mega Corridors, Africa, 2025
$
Combined population of 77.0 million
$
$
b
c
a
b
c
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Mega Trend 1 : UrbanisationUrbanisation Will Compel Logistics Companies To Have More Spokes in the Cities and Lesser HubsThe Hubs:
Central Distribution Centres in the outskirts
Heavy Commercial Vehicles (double trailer trucks) will carry goods to big warehouses at outskirts
Spokes: Drop off-points for deliveries
in city centres
Medium and Light CVs will deliver goods to warehouses within
city
Outer Ring Road25 miles from City
Centre
80% - 100% load factor
In-night services, Early-morning deliveries
Reduce the number of trips by almost half
100% on-time deliveries
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Mega Trend 2 : Connectivity and Convergence
Reactive ProactiveTelematics
Intelligent Transport Systems
Social Media Integration
2010
Sensors and Terrain MappingTraffic Predicting Software
Real-time is Too Late…
201520202025 Cloud Logistics
‘On-the-Fly’ DeliveriesIndividually optimized transport solutionQuality Control ‘On the Move’Urban Lead Logistics
Urban logistics opportunities
Logistics Technology to Become More Proactive than Reactive
Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail“More the ‘Clicks’ More the Truck Mileage”
$11.8 Trillion
$23 Trillion
$18.7Trillion$11.25 Trillion
$4.3Trillion$0.55 Trillion United States China United Kingdom Japan Germany
24% 18% 25% 10% 15%
1 2 3 4 5
$1.32Trillion $1.30 Trillion $0.19Trillion $0.17 Trillion $0.95 Trillion
% share of online in total retailOnline Sales Non-Online Sales
5%
95%
19%
81%
Mega Trend 3 : Bricks and Clicks
The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an Integrated Cross Channel Model Demanding For Multiple Delivery Options
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Department Stores
Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps
Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2000)
Interactive StoresVirtual Stores Hyper Online Markets
The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)
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Same-Day Night Time Click ‘n’ Collect Locker Boxes
Frequent Deliveries Inventory VisibilityCold Supply Chain Services
Multiple Delivery Options
Refrigerated Locker Boxes
Smaller Shipments
Urban Logistics Solutions
Ecommerce pressures on the supply chainRetail Logistics Will Innovate Its Last Mile Offering Multiple Delivery Options From Home Delivery to Self-Collect
In Future, HS Rail will not only offer high speed personal mobility but will also transport cargo at a lesser fuel and carbon cost
What are the Opportunities?• Higher Speed Logistics• Intermodal Logistics• Next-day delivery between continents• More fuel-efficient than Air-Road Mix• Night-time multimodal logistics (e.g. no night time flight restrictions)
Project Examples:• Eurocarex – High Speed Freight Train Between Lyon and London• Bangalore-Chennai High Speed Freight Train• China’s Mixed Passenger-Freight High Speed Trains
Mega Trend 4 : Higher Speed Logistics
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$2.55 trillion $5.98 Trillion
50%32%18%
55%23%22%
Transportation & DistributionWarehousingValue-Added
2011 20202.5xUrban Logistics Spending
How will demand for urban logistics affect the spending on logistics in urban environments ?
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How will urban freight transportation change?Road to remain the dominant mode of urban freight transport. Logistics Related Transport Will Account For Over 35% Of Urban Freight Traffic B2C trips will Come to rival the current dominant segment, B2B by 2020 underpinned by growth in ecommerceAverage length of haul will decrease as warehouses and delivery spokes move further into cities100% Loading Factor of Trucks – Full OptimisationSmaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles will be used within cities which are seamlessly integrated with multi-modal functionalities (roll on-roll off)
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Future of Road Transport: Truck Concept 2020
Engine & Fuel
Design
Driver Support
Connectivity • Lighter weight vehicles (Plastic Shell)• Low loading floor constructions• Roll on-roll off systems
• Tire Pressure Monitoring System, Driver Distraction Warning, Adaptive cruise control
• Vehicle to grid Communication, Navigation, green routing, terrain mapping, On-Board Traffic analysing tools, Geo-fencing, and Smart sensors • Electric• Hybrids/Fuel cell Fleets• CNG• HCCI
The Concept of future delivery vans will revolve around technology, carbon footprint, fuel efficiency and Aerodynamics
Without Consolidation Centres
With Consolidation Centres
Distribution will become more Consolidated and Move Toward the City Centre
Consolidation centre
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Urban Transhipment AreasUrban Consolidation CentresUrban Intermodal Hubs
Locker BoxesMicrodistribution
Mobile Depots / Freight Buses
Future of Consolidation and Last Mile DeliveryMore Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban AreasTypes of Urban Distribution
Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries
Mobile Collection Postal Service
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How are Cities managing Urban Logistics?Through vehicle access restriction, economic instruments, and special infrastructure, city governments and municipalities are planning for an urban future
Access Restriction Economic InstrumentsSpecial Infrastructure
Low Emission ZonesTime WindowsVehicle Weight Restrictions
Congestion ChargingIncentives & Subsidies
Freight LanesUrban Consolidation CentreLoading / Unloading Areas
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City of Paris Parking Bays London Congestion Zone
Barcelona Night Time Window Italy’s Urban Consolidation Centres
Examples of Cities experimenting with Urban Freight Measures
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How are Logistics Services Providers Scaling up to meet demand for Urban Logistics?
Transportation Technology2008
Distribution
2010
2012
2015
2020
Off-Peak Deliveries
Multimodal Deliveries
Hybrid / Electric Fleet / Shared Fleet
Autonomous Fleet (Self-Monitoring Vehicles)
Consolidation Centres
Locker Boxes
Pick-Up Vans / Self- Collection Points
Lifestyle Carriers
Proprietary EDI
Telematics / Real Time Solution
Vehicle Tech (Smart Trucks with Sensors)
Cloud Logistics
Future
Past
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Examples of Logistics Service Providers Experimenting with Urban Logistics Models
DHL Consolidation Centre TNT Express Tricycles
TNT Express Bento BoxFedex Smart Ecommerce Solutions
UPS-Kiala
Geodis Distropolis
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Top Industries Using Urban Logistics Services in the Future
Retail ApparelPharmaceutical Food & BeveragesSmaller Stores Generic Medicines Chilled and Frozen Food Bricks and ClicksIndustry Trend
Urban Logistics ImplicationSmaller shelf size – need for constant replenishment
No more homogenous single supply chain modelChilled and Frozen Food Free Shipping –Low cost services
Urban Logistics ServicesRetail Consolidation Centres Pack-to-order Cold Supply Chain Services Self-pickups
So what will the future of Urban Logistics look like in 20251. A minimum of 500 million deliveries per day will be made within cities by 2025. 2. People will volunteer to deliver goods on their way home becoming lifestyle couriers3. Access to cities in the future will be guided by Smart Cards and e-Tags4. Information Driven Logistics will become the norm with providers planning delivery trips even before orders are placed through predictive analysis and social media integration5. Logistics companies will innovate to overcome the future urban challenge introducing hybrid fleets, consolidated deliveries and locker boxes among others innovations for cities6. City planners will reinforce and introduce new policy measures to control vehicle access, provide economic incentive for sustainable freight deliveries, and invest in infrastructure such as freight villages
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Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega TrendSelected trends that impact your business and markets
Sub TrendA sub-layer of trends that has a wide ranging impact Impact to Your IndustryVisualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-building and macro economic forecasts
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
To
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Learn More About “New Mega Trends”Upcoming Book:New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillanhttp://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423
Join Our Mega Trend Group OnMega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research
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Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionProvides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific Topics by Industry Verticals
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A Global Mega Trends Analysis• Featuring global study updates annually and analysis of key topics like Urbanisation, Smart is the New Green, Health, Wellness and Well Being
BRegional Mega Trends and Implications
• Analysis of global Mega Trends in key geographies such as1. Africa2. India3. China 4. Latin America• Identification of specific regional trends (e.g., beneficiation in Africa)
CFocus on Specific Mega Trends and Their Impact by Industry• Focus on specific Topics e.g. the Impact of Connectivity and Convergence on Healthcare Devices, Urban Logistics . • There will be over 30 such topics completed in next 12 months
360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on Industries
Contact Information
Mani JamesCommercial Director, Africa
+27 21 680 3208
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