global oil geopolitics · crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events 2...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Global Oil Geopolitics
Rio Oil & Gas Conference September 17, 2012| Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Adam Sieminski Administrator
Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events
2
price per barrel (real 2010 dollars, quarterly average)
Low spare capacity
Iraq invades Kuwait
Saudis abandon swing producer role
Iran-Iraq War
Iranian revolution
Arab Oil Embargo
Asian financial crisis
U.S. spare capacity
exhausted
Global financial collapse
9-11 attacks
OPEC cuts targets 1.7 mmbpd
OPEC cuts targets 4.2 mmbpd
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil WTI crude oil price
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
World Oil Market
3 Adam Sieminski September 10, 2012
Economic growth has a strong impact on oil consumption
4
percent change (year-on-year)
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2012 and Thomson Reuters
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
non-OECD liquid fuels consumption non-OECD GDP
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
total liquids consumption million barrels per day
Projections History 2010
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
OECD
62
48
40%
19%
35%
41
Non-OECD 46
5
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
In OECD countries, price increases have coincided with lower consumption
6
-135
-90
-45
0
45
90
135
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OECD liquid fuels consumption (left axis) WTI crude oil price (right axis)
percent change (year-on-year) price per barrel (real 2010 dollars)
Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters
Forecast
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
Rising oil prices held down global oil consumption growth from 2005-2008, despite high economic growth
7
percent change (year-on-year) price per barrel (real 2010 dollars)
Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters
Forecast
-90
-45
0
45
90
135
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
World liquid fuels consumption (left axis) World GDP WTI crude oil price (right axis)
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
Non-OPEC production slowed in 2011, but EIA expects stronger growth in 2012 and 2013
8
million barrels per day change (year-on-year)
Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters
Forecast
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
non-OPEC liquid fuels production (left axis)
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
Non-OPEC supply expectations were adjusted upward in 2009-2010 after production decreased during economic downturn
9
million barrels per day annual average expectations
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
Note: Starting in January of each year, each line shows the expected forecast of non-OPEC supply growth for the specified calendar year, which tends to move toward the actual realized growth outcome as the year progresses.
48.0
48.5
49.0
49.5
50.0
50.5
51.0
51.5
52.0
52.5
53.0
2009 2010 2011 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
//
Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through August 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400 Yemen Syria Sudan/S. Sudan North Sea Mexico Colombia China Canada Brazil Australia Argentina
thousand barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran Report, August 2012
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012 10
Projected non-OPEC supply growth over the next two years, major countries
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Can
ada
Col
ombi
a
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Kaz
akhs
tan
Bra
zil
Indi
a
Viet
nam
Om
an
Gab
on
Egy
pt
Mal
aysi
a
Aus
tralia
Oth
er N
orth
Sea
Aze
rbai
jan
Mex
ico
Syr
ia
Nor
way
Sud
an
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
2012 2013
change in production from previous year million barrels per day
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012 11
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
OPEC production often acts to balance the oil market. Cuts in OPEC production targets tend to lead to price increases.
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Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OPEC production targets (left axis) WTI crude oil price (right axis)
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
million barrels per day change (year-on-year) price per barrel (real 2010 dollars)
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012 13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity
million barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
forecast
World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Balance
14 Adam Sieminski September 10, 2012
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Implied Stock Change and Balance World Supply World Demand
million barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
Forecast
//
U.S. Oil Market
15 Adam Sieminski September 10, 2012
Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Eagle Ford Bakken Granite Wash Bonespring Monterey Woodford Niobrara Spraberry Austin Chalk
tight oil production for select plays million barrels of oil per day
Source: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through March, 2012.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rest of US
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Haynesville
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Antrim
shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
U.S. liquid fuels production
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2010 2011 2012 2013 -0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Crude oil Liquefied petroleum gas and pentane plus Ethanol Total Consumption Consumption Forecast
Total liquids fuels production million barrels per day (line chart)
Change from prior year million barrels per day
(column chart)
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
Composition and volume of U.S. crude oil imports is shifting
Adam Sieminski September 10, 2012 18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 OPEC Canada Mexico Colombia Other non-OPEC Brazil
Crude oil imports million barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration through June 2012
U.S. commerical crude inventories outside of the mid-continent (PADD 2) are within the normal range
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012 19
million barrels
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec //
2012
2007 - 2011 inventory range
Note: Inventories include only commercial stocks of crude oil in Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts other than PADD 2
U.S. liquids fuel consumption is flattening
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 -0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Motor gasoline Jet fuel Distillate fuel Total Consumption Consumption Forecast
Total liquids fuels consumption million barrels per day (line chart)
Change from prior year million barrels per day
(column chart)
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines …moves even lower in various “side case” scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net petroleum imports 49%
36% 60%
2005
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
14% Extended Policies High TRR
Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012 21
Composition of U.S. liquid fuels consumption – implication for Brazil U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day
Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2010 Low High High Low High High EUR TRR
2025 2035
49%
5%
36%
10%
Natural gas plant liquids
Other non- petroleum
petroleum supply
Biofuels
Net petroleum imports
Domestic
including imports
EUR EUR TRR EUR supply Reference Reference
22 Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012
For more information
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Adam Sieminski September 17, 2012