Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

New York, 03.07.2008

Alexander MüllerAssistant Director-General

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

1.Population

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Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlook

A drastic slow-down in world population growth

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

To

tal p

op

ula

tio

n

(billi

on

s)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

An

nu

al in

cre

me

nts

(b

illi

on

s)

Th

e d

rivin

gfo

rces

of

dem

an

dto

2030

Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlook

Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002

Urbanization to accelerate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Bil

lio

n p

eo

ple

Urban

Rural

expectedactual

Th

e d

rivin

gfo

rces

of

dem

an

dto

2030

Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlookT

he d

rivin

gfo

rces

of

dem

an

dto

2030

Ethiopia: no population dividend amid high population growth

5

7 7

14

18

20

23 24 24

23

—

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

To

tal

po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Inc

rem

en

ts o

ve

r 1

0 y

ea

rs (

mil

lio

ns

)from 80 to 180 million people by 2050

Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlookT

he d

rivin

gfo

rces

of

dem

an

dto

2030

Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

1.Population2.Hunger in the World

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Food markets: Review and outlook to 2030T

he

Ou

tlo

ok t

o 2

030:

Th

e n

utr

ien

ts

Food markets: Review and outlook to 2030T

he

nu

trit

ion

tra

nsit

ion

to

2030

Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

1.Population2.Hunger in the World3.Natural ResourcesOve

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Land in use versus suitable area for crop production

10661031

366

220

99

874

497

203 228 232 20786

387

265

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Latin Americaand

Caribbean

sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia South Asia NearEast/North

Africa

Industrializedcountries

TransitionEconomies

millio

n h

a

Suitable for rainfed cropproduction

Arable land use, 1997/99

Th

e r

eso

urc

e b

ase

Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of renewable water resources (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

sub-

Saha

ran

Afric

a

Latin

Am

eric

aN

ear E

ast/N

orth

Afri

ca

Sout

h As

ia

East

Asi

aAl

l dev

elop

ing

coun

tries

Today in 2030

4. What challenges for the resource base?T

he r

eso

urc

e b

ase

Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

1.Population2.Hunger in the World3.Natural Resources

4.Energy

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Energy Consumption and Income are LinkedEnergy Consumption and Income are Linked

5 billion low-income people in countries with rapid economic growth rates

67020302

232231463 20042All sources

85020502

non-OECDOECDWorldYearEnergy source:

Exajoule (1018), EJ

1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 20002.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 20063.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

How big is the market for biofuels?Energy production and potential, biofuels and land use

67020302

232231463 20042All sources

85020502

non-OECDOECDWorldYearEnergy source:

Exajoule (1018), EJ

How big is the market for biofuels?Energy production and potential, biofuels and land use

418492004Actual useBiomass

6702030

232231 463 2004All sources

8502050

non-OECDOECDWorldYearEnergy source:

Exajoule (1018), EJ

0.180.270.452007Biodiesel

0.580.481.062006EthanolBiofuels

How big is the market for biofuels?Energy production and potential, biofuels and land use

4184920042Actual useBiomass

Bioenergy supply in 2004 (according to IEA 2006)

47.6

29.4

18.0

13.5

5.83.0

0.8 0.20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Africa Asia Latin

America

China Non-

OECD

Europe

OECD Former

USSR

Middle

East

[%]

Share of Bioenergy* in TotalPrimary Energy Supply [%]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Democratic Rep. of Congo

United Rep. of Tanzania

Ethiopia

Nepal

Mozambique

Sudan

Zambia

Cameroon

Kenya

Haiti

Myanmar

Nigeria

Togo

Ghana

Benin

Cote d’Ivoire

Angola

Eritrea

Zimbabwe

Rep. of the Congo

Gabon

Paraguay

Guatemala

Sri Lanka

Nicaragua

Vietnam

Honduras

Senegal

India

Bangladesh

Pakistan

El Salvador

Latvia

Indonesia

Brazil

[%] of total primary energy supply

Source: Juergens (FAO) 2006 based on data from IEA 2006

Share of energy from biomass and waste in total primary energy supply for countries with a share of 30% and above

• Bioenergy currently accounts for a significant share of total energy supply, particularly in the developing world

• On aggregate, in developingcountries, >80% of energy is derivedfrom traditional bioenergy systems

• And the bulk of it islocated in Africa

Parity prices: Petrol–Crude oil – EthanolVarious feedstocks and farming/production systems

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Petrol, US$/l

Cru

de

, U

S$

/bb

l

Gasoline-Crude US$ Cane Brazil, top producers

Cane, Brazil, average Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d

Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture Maize, US

Mixed feedstock Europe Palmoil, MPOB project

Th

e c

om

peti

tiven

ess

Competitiveness by feedstock

Josef Schmidhuber (2005)

BTL: Synfuel/Sunfuel

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Total ethanol production

Renewable Fuel Standard

Maize use (right axis)

Expansion of US ethanol productionand corresponding use of maize

Ethanol: 7.5 bln gallons or 28.4 bln

liters by 2012 (4.6% of gasoline

demand).

Maize: 110 MT or

32% of productionB

illio

n li

ters

(E

thano

l)

Mill

ion

tonne

s(M

aiz

e)

Source: USDA/ERS in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016

Wieviel Prozent der Ackerfläche benötigt man, um 10 % Treibstoff zu ersetzen?

Rohstoff Anteil Ackerfläche Anteil lw. Nutzfläche

DE Raps, Rüben, Weizen 29,6% 20,5%EU 15 26,7% 14,0%EU 25 16,9% 13,3%

EU 25 Raps, Rüben, Weizen Erträge wie in DE 13,0% 10,2%

DE Ethanol nur auf Rübenbasis 27,2% 19,0%EU 25 Erträge wie in DE 15,6% 12,3%

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Meat imports/-exports by developing countries

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030

mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s

South AsiaEast Asia

NENA

Latin America

s.S. Africa

ProjectionsHistorical development

Th

e w

orl

d m

ark

ets

fo

r a

gri

cu

ltu

ral

pro

du

ce

World markets and export opportunities

Cereal imports of developing countries

1970-2030

-10

40

90

140

190

240

1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030

mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s

East Asia

South AsiaNear East/North Africa

Latin America

s.S.Africa

Historical Development Projections

World markets and export opportunitiesT

he

wo

rld

ma

rke

ts f

or

ag

ric

ult

ura

l p

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