global photovoltaic market: opportunities … › public › sites › › ...solar market context !...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2011 SunPower Corporation
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: Opportunities and Challenges
July 5, 2012 Gabriela Bunea
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
OUTLINE
§ SunPower overview § Solar market § SunPower Technology § Acknowledgment
2
© 2011 SunPower Corporation
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
SunPower Overview
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
4
Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that do not represent historical facts and may be based on underlying assumptions. SunPower uses words and phrases such as “driving,” “within reach,” “predictable,” “will,” “pipeline,” “visibility,” “goal,” “projected,” “target schedule” and similar words and phrases to identify forward-looking statements in this presentation, including forward-looking statements regarding: (a) plans and expectations regarding future financial results, operating results, liquidity, cash flows, capital expenditure and business strategies, (b) management’s plans and objectives for future operations, (c) reaching the goal of pricing competitiveness with conventional energy sources, (d) forecasted demand growth in the solar industry, and projected bookings and pipelines, (e) utility project construction and timing, completion, ability to obtain financing, (f) growth in dealer partners, (g) product development, advantages of new products, and competitive positioning, (h) manufacturing plans and expected savings, and (i) the success and benefits of joint ventures, acquisitions and partnerships. Such forward-looking statements are based on information available to SunPower as of the date of this presentation and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some beyond SunPower’s control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these forward-looking statements, including risks and uncertainties such as (i) increasing supply and competition in the industry and lower ASPs, impact on gross margins, and any revaluation of inventory as a result of decreasing ASP or reduced demand; (ii) the impact of regulatory changes and the continuation of governmental and related economic incentives promoting the use of solar power, and the impact of such changes on revenues, financial results; (iii) ability to meet cost reduction plans and reduce operating expenses; (iv) ability to obtain and maintain an adequate supply of raw materials, components, and solar panels, as well as the price paid for such items and third parties' willingness to renegotiate or cancel above market contracts; (v) general business and economic conditions, including seasonality of the solar industry, growth trends in the solar industry, and the challenges in becoming price competitive with conventional energy sources; (vi) ability to revise portfolio allocation geographically and across downstream channels to respond to regulatory changes; (vii) ability to increase or sustain growth rate; (viii) construction difficulties or potential delays, including obtaining land use rights, permits, license, other governmental approvals, and transmission access and upgrades, and any litigation relating thereto; (ix) timeline for revenue recognition and impact on operating results; (x) the significant investment required to construct power plants and the company's ability to sell or otherwise monetize power plants, including the company's success in completing the design, construction and maintenance of CVSR and the 711MW project for Southern California Edison; (xi) fluctuations and unpredictability in operating results; (xii) the availability of financing arrangements for the company's projects and the company's customers; (xiii) potential difficulties associated with operating the joint venture with AUO and ability to achieve the anticipated synergies with Tenesol; (xiv) success in achieving cost reduction, ability to remain competitive in product offering and obtain premium pricing; (xv) liquidity, substantial indebtedness, and ability to obtain additional financing and meet debt covenants; (xvi) manufacturing difficulties that could arise;(xvii) ability to achieve the expected benefits from relationship with Total; (xviii) the success of ongoing R&D efforts and the acceptance of new products and services; (xix) possible impairment or write-off of goodwill, intangible assets, long-lived assets and project assets; (xx) the success of residential lease program; (xxi) the assumptions and compliance with treasury grant guidance and timing and amount of cash grant; and (xxii) other risks described in SunPower’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended January 1, 2012 and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing SunPower’s views as of any subsequent date, and SunPower is under no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any responsibility to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
SunPower 2012
5
World-leading solar conversion efficiency >2.5 GW solar PV deployed
More than 200 patents
5,000+ employees
Diversified portfolio: roofs to power plants Strategic investment by Total
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
6
Cell and module technology is the foundation of our world class system solutions
Residential
Technology Businesses
Power Plants
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Total Overview: § 11th largest company in the world* § 2011 sales: €185 billion. 92,855 employees § Strategic investments in solar
Transformational Investment, June 2011: § Long-term alignment with strategic investor who shares vision and strategy § $1 billion credit support agreement accelerates long-term growth plan § Expands SunPower’s R&D capacity through joint collaboration agreement § Total’s footprint spans 130 countries expanding SunPower’s market access
Total SA Partnership
* Source: 2011 Fortune Global 500
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
8
SunPower Revenue Growth
$11 $79$237
$775
$1,438$1,524
$2,230
$2,498
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Annual Revenue ($M)
2012 Revenue on Non-GAAP basis
© 2011 SunPower Corporation
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Solar Market
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Energy Available from Sun § AltEnergy.org:
– The sun provides enough energy in one minute to supply the world's energy needs for one year.
– In one day, it provides more energy than our current population would consume in 27 years.
– In fact, the amount of solar radiation striking the earth over a three-day period is equivalent to the energy stored in all fossil energy sources.
10
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
11
Solar Market Context
§ $1 trillion global electric power market
§ Global power demand to roughly double by 2025
§ Solar power market share today < 1%
§ Policy driven by demand growth, power plant retirement, security and environment
§ PV electricity is approaching conventional power prices in some markets
SunPower is managing to an incentive-free solar market
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
12
Solar Role as Baseline Energy Source
Source: IEA 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007 2020 2030 2040 2050
Global Electricity Production By Energy Source
Other
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
PWh
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity
13
Source: REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century
www.ren21.net (November 2010)
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
2012 PV Industry Strategic Context Industry Trends § Proliferation and fragmentation of
demand. Moving from few “mega-markets” to broad # of small-medium sized mkts
§ No longer just an EU + US story: Asia, Middle East and Africa rising fast
§ Market-driven policy design
– Days of administratively set fixed-rate tariffs are nearing an end
– Reverse auction format and PPA-based tenders to dominate
§ Souring sentiment in EU over PV on agricultural land.
§ Convergence across markets of economic returns from solar
§ Stage set for industry shake-out
14
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Solar PV History and Forecast
0 5 000
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000
Annual Global PV Additions (MW)
15
>1 >10 >100 >1000
~25 - 30 GW/yr
Sources: Historic - Photon, Solarbuzz; 2011+ - Base case industry consensus
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
16
Radical Shifts in Regional Demand
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
APAC
MEA
Europe
Americas
Annual PV Capacity Additions by Market (MW)
26,400
Sources: Historic - Photon, Solarbuzz; 2011+ - Base case industry consensus
27,700 32,200
35,500 39,400
27,500
© 2012 SunPower Corporation Source: OECD/IEA, 2010
17
New Power Generation Capacity by Geography 2010-2020
GW By Key Country
By Global Region
262 74 91
773
200 45
-500
0
500
1000
United States Japan Russia China India Brazil
Additions Retirements Net Addition
322 337 118 161
1,095
114 76 95
2,319
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
North America
OECD Europe
Pacific E. Europe Asia Middle East
Africa Latin America
World
© 2012 SunPower Corporation Source: GTM Research, April 2012
18
The U.S. Utility PV Pipeline
© 2012 SunPower Corporation Source: GTM Research, April 2012
19
Contracted PV Pipeline By Utility
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Overview
§ California has mandated that 33% of energy comes from renewable by 2020
§ Major California utilities: PG&E (Northern California, San Francisco), SCE (Southern California/LA), and SDG&E (Southern California/San Diego) are entering into contracts for large solar/wind projects to meet mandate
§ High solar resource § Large projects >20MW++ § US Federal Government 30%
Investment Tax Credit providing financial support
20
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Market Participation by Segment
21
Retail: compete with retail customer electric rates
Wholesale: compete with peak wholesale energy prices
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Grid Parity: Executive Outlook What does Grid Parity mean?: Not a single definition !!
§ Cost of kWh produce with solar PV = Price of the electricity, but ….
§ There is not a single price of electricity:
– Retail price: Residential, Commercial , Industrial, etc.
– Wholesale price, etc.
– Grid Parity will be reached soon in the retail market and in selected wholesale markets
§ Reaching GP is not enough if regulatory framework is not ready & fair :
– Net Metering: Auto Consumption is not enough ! Roll over and value 100 % generation
– No caps; no limitations in size; no fees
– Value kWh = Retail electricity price
– Interconnections rights and priority dispatch
§ We are in retail grid parity in some segments in Southern EU
§ We are at wholesale grid parity in fuel oil dominated regions
§ LCOE’s have fallen dramatically faster than market forecasts!!
22
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Goldman Sachs (Jan 2011)
23
Expected parity in residential : ITA 2010 SPA 2012 GER >2014 FRA >2014
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Schleicher-Tappeser (Jan 2011)
24
Expected parity: RES COM
ITA 2010 2012/3 SPA 2010 2014 GER 2011 2016 FRA 2016 >2016
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
25
72-Mwac Montalto Italy Largest in world by energy production
First investment grade solar bond – 200M Euro
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
California Valley Solar Ranch: 250 MW
26
September 2011
- Financing approved - Construction started
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
750 MW DC – SunPower Antelope Valley Solar – Washington D.C. Comparison
© 2012 SunPower Corp.
601-MW Antelope Valley, CA Largest in world by energy
production
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Solar Market Thoughts
§ The Internet went through a boom 1997-2000 followed by a correction
§ Despite the dot-com correction Internet use continued dramatic growth as
communication costs plummeted, usage increased and new applications
were created
§ The PV market is entering a consolidation phase but that is an opportunity as
dramatically lower PV LCOEs transform the market for solar generation
28
© 2011 SunPower Corporation
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
SunPower Technology Highest Efficiency, Highest Reliability, Guaranteed Performance
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
SunPower: A Technology Leader
30
§ Dedication to research and development: § >200 patents issued to date § Constantly innovating
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
SunPower’s Maxeon all-back contact, n-type solar cell is patented, hard to replicate and provides industry-leading efficiencies of up to 24%
31
SunPower® Maxeon® Cell Technology
All-Back Side Contacts Front Side (no gridlines)
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
32
SunPower® Maxeon® Solar Cell: A Differentiated Technology SunPower’s all-back contact solar cells are up to 50% more efficient than Conventional c-Si cells
SunPower Maxeon Cell
22%-24% Efficient
Conventional Mono Cell
15%-18% Efficient
Conventional Multi Cell
14%-17% Efficient
* Cell efficiencies shown are indicative of cells in mass production
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Broad Spectral Response
33
SunPower Cells capture more light from the blue and infra-red parts of the spectrum through a lightly doped front surface and light trapping
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
N-type Silicon – 270 um thick N-type High Lifetime Silicon • reduces bulk recombination
P+ P+ P+ N+ N+ N+
Conventional Solar Cell 15% Efficiency
P-Type Multi-crystalline Silicon
Front
Back
Texture + ARC
P+
Gridlines
Aluminum Paste"Silver Paste Pad"
N-Type Diffused"Junction"
Technology Comparison
Passivating!SiO2 layer!• Reduces surface recombination loss"
Texture +ARC
Backside Gridlines • Eliminates shadowing • High-coverage metal reduces resistance loss
Lightly doped front diffusion!• Reduces recombination loss"
Localized Contacts!• Reduces contact "recombination loss"
Backside Mirror!• Reduces back light absorption & causes light trapping"
SunPower ® Solar Cell Up to 24% Efficiency
N+
34
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Cell Efficiency Evolution
35
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
POWER DISTRIBUTION BY NAMEPLATE
36
Gen 2 Cell in all distributions
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Gen 3 delivers unprecedented value
37
18%
20%
16%
14%
Mod
ule
Effi
cien
cy
21%
Standard Efficiency
HIT Selective Emitter
Maxeon™ Gen 2
Maxeon™ Gen 3
37
16%
14%
19%
20%
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
SunPower Extended Testing for Highest Reliability
8x IEC
8x UL
ISO
Basic Industry Qualifications
SunPower Custom Tests
Extended Qualifications
Highly Accelerated Life Test (HALT) Design & Manufacturing Testing
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
§ Matt Campbell, Sr. Director Business Development Power Plants § Helen Kendrick, Sr. Manager, External Communications Dept
39
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
Global PV Power Plant Market LCOE’s have fallen dramatically creating new PV power plant markets
41
California RPS driven PV plants
taking off
FIT markets dramatically changed – first PPA’s under
development China FIT driving fast
growth
First large power plants under solar flagships program
India FIT & RPO driven growth
Focus on high solar resource areas of Chile
South Africa tender-driven
growth
Large potential in GCC
© 2012 SunPower Corporation
42
Photon Survey: SunPower ® panels are more efficient per rated watt SunPower Technology Leadership
Graph shows SunPower vs. conventional silicon PV Source: Photon Annual Market Survey, 2010 and SunPower
42